Community Projection: Kerry Wood

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 11:31 AM CST in Community Projections Comment 111 comments

The two projections we've done so far -- Juan Pierre and Jacque Jones -- have both come in very, very close to the career averages for both players.

Now, here's one where I figure we'll have some wildly divergent thoughts for 2006, given the uncertainty about Wood -- whether he'll be ready for Opening Day, and what his status will be. Will he be a rotation starter from day one? Will he miss time? Will he wind up in the bullpen?

Let's pick the following categories for Kerry:

Games, Games Started, Innings, Wins, Losses, Holds, Saves (the latter two just in case you think he'll be a reliever), Walks, Strikeouts, ERA

Have at it, and a couple of notes: with the recent snowfall in Chicago, I've reposted the "snowy" BCB logo -- and with the temperature 38 degrees at this writing, it may not be long before it goes back to the bare-branched ivy look.

And in today's Sun-Times, Chris DeLuca says that the Orioles might be interested in Todd Walker, and that this would likely be done in tandem with the persistently-rumored Julio Lugo acquisition. I have not seen any corroboration of the Walker rumor anywhere else other than the Sun-Times.

If Walker is dealt, then I think Lugo would just about have to be acquired to make up the offensive loss of Todd. They are similar offensive players -- Lugo with a bit more speed, Walker with more power, and Walker adds the lefthanded bat that the Cubs could use. Personally, I'd rather keep things the way they are... but this swap wouldn't be terrible.

Finally, one more thing about Wood -- the photo above is from his first major league start, a 4-1 loss to the Expos in Montreal on April 12, 1998. Wood threw 4.2 innings, allowed four hits, three walks and four runs, with seven strikeouts.

Little did we know that four starts later, Wood would make history.

UPDATE [2006-1-24 13:21:51 by Al]: Here is our community projection for Wood:

G-28; GS-22; IP-149; WINS-11; LOSSES-6; HOLDS-2; SAVES-2; WALKS-67; STRIKEOUTS-162; ERA-3.79

Not too unreasonable, actually. If he does this, the 2006 Cubs should be in good shape.

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Alright Ill get this started

30 Games,
30 Games Started,
195.0 Innings,
15 Wins,
8 Losses,
0 Holds,
0 Saves
93 Walks,
215 Strikeouts,
3.84 ERA

Thats optimism for you but I believe he can recover from this elbow stuff to finally be an effective starting pitcher.. I think with this entire off-season of rest and just now beginning to get back into the groove paired with the work on his mechanics (which he finally admitted were the issue) that he will finally re-establish himself as a solid MLB starting pitcher.. are those ace numbers ... no are they worth 13.5 M ... definitely not.. but are they solid from a 3rd or 4th guy... yeah well criticize away

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 11:53 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

...well

I'd say w/ todays market those are 13.5M numbers

by slink on Jan 22, 2006 6:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

thats not the point...

There's a 3.5M buyout regardless so it's really whether or not he is worth $10M.

by Ienpw on Jan 22, 2006 7:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wood Projection

Games 40
Games Started 18
Innings 160
Wins 9
Losses 4
Holds 15
Saves 0
Walks 50
Strikeouts 180
ERA 4.03

by slink on Jan 23, 2006 8:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

I'm going to have to think about this one.

I can't decide the bullpen thing. I have a feeling that the Cubs will put Kerry in the bullpen, but I don't know for how long. I also think though that if they are going to wait to bring him back healthy and keep him healthy, that they should just bring him back until he is ready to start which would mean no bullpen.

I think he could be ready for the start of the season, but I think the Cubs might take extra precautions and hold him back a little longer. I love Kerry, and if there is one thing that I'm sure of is it will be an optimistic prediction.

Todd Walker should stay. If we get Lugo I won't cry about it, but Walker is good enough for me. I listened to the some of the Cubs Convention panels at wgnradio.com and when someone asked how they evaluate the one who will start, I felt like Dusty was listing the reasons Todd may not stay. He said they don't just look at hitting(since everyone was bringing up the point that he was a .300 hitter), they also look at defense, speed, and baserunning.

I listened to a lot of Ryan Dempster, and he is awesome. I love him more every day. I learned that Z used to be a right fielder when he was a kid before he became a pitcher. Rick Sutcliffe is also very cool. I like listening to him.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 12:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wood/Walker

"Todd Walker should stay. If we get Lugo I won't cry about it, but Walker is good enough for me"

I guess its like Al said a choice between speed and power on offense but I think where this trade will really pay off for the Cubs if it is serious is on D where Lugo is the far superior player to Todd Walker... Also they would have the option of moving Cedeno to 2b and putting Lugo at SS or leaving Cedeno at ss and putting Lugo at 2b... he has a bit more mobility as far as playing position.

"I think he could be ready for the start of the season, but I think the Cubs might take extra precautions and hold him back a little longer. I love Kerry, and if there is one thing that I'm sure of is it will be an optimistic prediction"

I really hope that they dont put him in the bullpen and if he needs the time to get ready to be a starter than thats what he needs to do... the Cubs have 7 reliable arms in the bullpen... 7

Novoa, Eyre, Howry, Dempster, Wuertz, Ohman, Williamson...

Where would Kerry fit in there? Perhaps he is better than Novoa or Wuertz in the pen but those are fringe guys anyway ROOGY type guys... You dont need to continue running a guy out there if he isnt hurt...especially if its just to be a ROOGY.

Anyway those are just my thoughts :)

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks...

you helped me make up my mind. I will say Woody isn't going to the bullpen, which is probably what I would've said anyway since I don't want him to go to the bullpen.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 1:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Al...

could you check with your sources on something that was just posted at gaius' blog? It left me a little puzzled.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 12:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Just so no one else has to vist there...

The author made two comments that suggested that Kerry Wood wanted to be a closer and two Mark Prior's shoulder is hurt... or is hurting.. The author of the message said he had someone in baseball that told him these things. He also suggested that Wood is being kept in the rotation by management and front office guys.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 1:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I've put in a word...

... to my sources. Waiting for reply.

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 1:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Al!

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 1:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I seriously...

Have doubts about the type of reporting that the guy did...
First of all he said I have a source in the biz ... okay so what does that mean.. I have a source in the biz too went to college with a guy who is the assistant GM of the Kane County Cougars... You know what that means... Not much but he is still a source and yeah he is in the biz.. nice guy too class act.

Second of all the kind of comments he made show backwards thought processes on the part of hte Cubs off-season had they known Wood wanted to be part of the bullpen.. why would you sign Eyre and Howry ( 7.5 M combined for 06') to a deal when you could have turned around and offered that money to say... Weaver? Washburn? Millwood?
Or say you still like Eyre (3.5 M for 06') why not turn around and offer 4 M to a guy like say for instance...I dont know Kenny Rodgers? .. Makes sense doesnt it?

Also if this is the case why not invite Kirk Rueter to ST... hes a FA sure he has injury problems but Hendry/Baker like restoration projects and have yet to find one for 06..
04-Dempster
05- Williamson
06'- ???

All in all its just shoddy journalism and pessimistic thought that guides the sites aim. They think that by deriding the Cubs that they are supposedly being responsible journalists.. (blogging is just a less sophisticated form of journalism IMO) and in reality they are doing nothing more than filling the internet with more crap than need be.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 1:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Hey 2883

Did I ever claim to be a journalist? Is 1060West all of sudden part of the mainstream media?

I really don't give a &%$# whether you believe it or not and stated as much in the post. I don't need to prove anything to anyone. You have freewill believe waht you want. But to attack me is petty and shows how small you are.

Where's your vaunted rules now, Al? Oh, I forgot these only apply to Ivy Chat Chuck and Gaius Marius.

by Thunderclap Newman on Jan 22, 2006 6:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hold on a second...

... I thought that was valid criticism. He didn't call you names, and I didn't see it as an attack.

Nobody said you were part of the mainstream media. But the point is valid, and in fact, he goes on record further below in this thread as saying he feels this way about all rumors, including some that I myself have posted.

Rather than throw out wild accusations, if you can find one specific place in the Community Guidelines that you feel he has violated, feel free to take advantage of the process and email me.

By posting what you did, you did open yourself up for criticism. I didn't think it was unfair.

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 6:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow.

Mr. Thunderclap is one angry puppy.

He is now in the running for "Most Angry Person" (MAP) up there with Chuck and Gaius Marius.

Mr. Thunderclap, I am respectfully suggesting that you check out the following website. Hope this helps.

http://www.apa.org/pubinfo/anger.html

Respectfully,
Nickler

by nickler on Jan 22, 2006 7:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

In the running after only one post. Not too shabby if angry is your thing.

by Perkins on Jan 22, 2006 7:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You betcha

Even though Mr. Thunderclap has made only one post, it is the LEVEL of anger expressed that catapults him to the top of the rankings.

The sheer volume of anger expressed by Gaius Marius and, in particular, Ivy Chat Chuck do overwhelm the anger from Mr. Thunderclap's one post however.

by nickler on Jan 22, 2006 7:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Whatever...

I shouldn't have bothered to ask. I don't want to waste any more time on this, so I won't be combing your wonderful "Community Guidelines" to see if there was a violation or not.

An pardon me for posting some information I received. I'll never do that again. The BCB community will obviously shout me down for my "shoddy journalism" unless I claim it's directly from Jim Hendry.

As I stated in the post, here's to hoping that the Prior stuff is wrong. How can my post be called negative when I stated that I actually hope that this info is not true. Many of the posters here make up there mind before they even read the posts at Ivy Chat or 1060West. No matter what it may be, it must be negative if it resides there. Just silly.

by Thunderclap Newman on Jan 22, 2006 7:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

First off

I bear no ill will toward 1060 or Ivychat.. Ive cited articles to defend my point on a couple different sites.. ZGS i cited your "why it cannot be ronny cedeno" article... as the reason for the Cubs struggles... I question the rumours reported on ALL blogs as being true Even this one... Even "your favorite site" I question the talk on sports radio too namely WSCR...I think they say things just to get callers to call in and thus have ratings.. Now as for your post in particular... I believe the info you have could have been better framed for instance

my friend who works for ________ and has sources in the Cubs _______ Department say ____________

You see how much better than looks because now i know exactly where these rumors are coming from.. Not i have a friend whos in the biz and has contacts somewhere in the organization says that... that just opens you up for criticism ... if ive somehow broken some community standard im sure ill be banned accordingly if ive broken your community standard ban me Blogs are not my life.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 7:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I don't want to post things like...

"my friend who works for ___ and has sources in the Cubs ___ Department say _____"

It may look better to you, but I'm not going to do it cause I don't want repercussions from the source. As stated ad nauseum, believe the info or not, it's your choice. I am not a journalist, nor care to be one. I'm a baseball fan, who came across some info he wanted to share with other baseball fans. You seem to want to treat me like I'm a reporter for the NY Times. As is probably very obvious to you already, I'm not.

by Thunderclap Newman on Jan 22, 2006 7:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

great way

to get someone who confided in you fired.

you must be a journalist, 2883. :rolls eyes:

by gaius marius on Jan 23, 2006 11:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That is so not true...

I read 1060West and Ivy Chat. Both of them always bring up interesting points. I thought your information could be true, which is why I asked Al to check his sources so he could get other information. I actually thought about sending Al an email about your info instead of posting, and I guess that might be a better option for next time.

Both sites may not be negative all the time, but you have to admit there's a better chance the stuff is going to be negative instead of positive. But don't judge the BCB community on just one poster. I'm part of the BCB Community, and I don't make up my mind before I go to either site.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 7:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Would you like for me?

to Ban myself... a one week ban for violating number 3
Harassing/Baiting of users, e.g., "How about that Neifi!; isn't he great?" posted five consecutive times that Neifi makes an out, "The Cubs will never win this game" posted 10 times in 30 minutes, etc.
Although i dont really see how i did this... I was being critcal of a post you made on another website and I would have brought htat here anyway most likely as a diary so it could be addressed critically from a different set of eyes. I'll leave you to decide that I have no issues not posting for a week on any blog if you decide that i crossed that line.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 7:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not my place to decide

so I won't. Do whatever you want.

by Thunderclap Newman on Jan 22, 2006 7:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Then i echo the sentiment of other posters... Do not confuse my own personal beliefs on comments made by blogs and supposed insider sources with the ideas thoughts or comments associated with the BCB community and/or any of its partner communities..

A particular quote that I read in the past couple days come to mind about the Giants in the 70's about sources... that used to sit around and make up rumours just so that they could see it in print.. Blogs ..whether you like it or dislike it have become a form of reporting.. The blogging system is highly interlinked... for example.. The Griffey/Arroyo rumour which im sure if you read on MLBtraderumors.. was off of a blog if you click on the comments button you will see that someone on a blog made up a rumour that was then ..within an instant shot over the net like it was truth when in reality the Reds and Red Sox may not have even spoken..

Sports writers do the same thing at the winter meetings.. If Jim Hendry would have went to talk to say Andrew Friedman at the winter meetings Huff and Lugo would have been rumoured to go to the Cubs and they probably would have came up with people that made sense... Do not doubt the power of your blog and the places that it can potentially pop up around the internet because of the internet you are now a sports journalist... albeit a very minor one.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 7:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I learned my lesson

I will absolutely never ever share any information again. Good night

by Thunderclap Newman on Jan 22, 2006 8:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I admire you...

I have serious problems when I don't come to BCB for one day. I don't know what I would do if I didn't come for a whole week! :)

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 7:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

As Johnny Cash would say.

"I cross the line, I cross the line."

Come on guys, lighten up.

The year hasn't even started yet.

When I get angry, I pee in a public restroom and don't flush. It saves water, and makes me happy.

by nickler on Jan 22, 2006 7:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What??

Nickler, I think you would win the Weirdest Person Award(WPA)hands down.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 7:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

uhhh

Nickler, I think you would win the Weirdest Person Award(WPA)hands down.

...that's for damn sure.

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Jan 23, 2006 12:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Did you guys...

see the movie "Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome"?

I say we move beyond this. Let's move "Beyond Thunderclap"

by nickler on Jan 22, 2006 7:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Here we go

2006 - Wade Miller
Good job Jimmy!

by cubbybear on Jan 23, 2006 4:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Ignore it...

...if you don't like the manner in which it's been relayed. Someone in the comments on that site said that it's irresponsible journalism to not divulge one's source. Al has never informed us of who his source is. The most famous "source" of all-time is Deep Throat and we had to wait 30 years before we found out who he was.

Someone said that what was said goes against logic. It does and therefore I find there to be very little credibility to what was said, if any. Not only does it go against the logic of the Chicago Cubs, but it also is not logical for Kerry Wood who has always been a starter and has always insisted he wants to remain one. Plus, it's his contract year so why would he decrease his value by "wanting" to move into the rotation permanently?

As for Prior, well, I wouldn't be surprised if it's true, but I doubt anyone has any inside information on it. I just assume Prior is always hurt and therefore he'll miss significant time with various injuries so it wouldn't surprise me one bit if his shoulder was hurt.

by Maddog on Jan 22, 2006 2:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

On sources...

... the reason people like me and Thunderclap won't reveal them, is because if we did, it's likely the source would dry up. I respect my sources and their privacy, and they know this, and in return, I can continue to get information.

That said, I agree that this particular information (about Wood and Prior) seems suspect. I'm trying to get some info of my own. Will let you guys know.

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 2:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nobody

should reveal their sources. As you said, information will stop flowing and the freedom with which we enjoy in our media would no longer be so free.

I have a source who works in the Cubs minor league organization and this afternoon I phoned him and he'd not heard of either of those supposed rumors. He did also tell me that it's not uncommon for him to be out of the loop unless it is going to affect him. Woody's desire to pitch in the bullpen would not affect him, but if Prior was injured, it would affect him and I think he'd know about it.

by Maddog on Jan 22, 2006 6:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Free Flow of Information?

Or just people making up bogus rumours with supposed "sources" Thats just the thing Bloggers get bad reps because of stuff like this.. If bloggers would at least give more info than.."a source" then bloggers could get more credibility as is bloggers are usually wrong when it comes to pass and usually are nothing more than a message board... which is what bloggers are trying to avoid... I know Al won't like to hear that but its how i am starting to feel about blogs in general.. ( Al with all due respect I do trust your blog more than any other blog out there) however I believe that people can say they have sources when in all actuality they have sketchy rumors that occasionally will be right..

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 6:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand this...

... which is why I try really hard NOT to post unsubstantiated rumors, and do check out the ones I do hear.

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 6:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This was the 1st time...

I mentioned I had a "source" on this blog and I only did so in reference to the supposed rumors that have peoples panties in a bunch.

Is it better if I say this before source?

A coach in the Cubs minor league system told me he would have no knowledge of what Woody wants, but would have knowledge of any supposed injury to Prior. And he hasn't heard a word.

by Maddog on Jan 22, 2006 10:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Techinically speaking....

You do not have to do any of that..

They are sort of right you don't want to jeopardize giving up your source... Honestly though if your source is giving away information that is that top secret chances are Mike Kiley/ Deluca/Mariotti/any of the Tribsters would also be right on top of any said injuries.. Because they unlike bloggers have a job and their job is to put out stories...but yeah it makes you sound more credible when you say .... A coach in the Minor league system as long as the source is not able to be jeopardized or doesnt mind you saying hey this is what it is.. if he does then saying a source is fine i guess.. but i just dont like people that say a friend told me... thats to me is usually a signal to say... I have real sketchy information that i heard 4th hand or beyond that I am going to repeat because it may be true.. and I could make the claim that Zambrano is hurt say I have sources and you know what he may actually be... who really knows for sure..

I didnt mean to ruffle any feathers nor irritate any bloggers... I just meant to point out the flaws in what is an otherwise beneficial system.
Had it been Al instead of whats his name I probbably would have had the same response.. How high up is the source.. Is the source within the organization.. What is the sources GENERAL position.. the guy didnt even give us that nothing.. not a minor league coach not a scout not an intern .. nothing and to me I want to know how far the bunny hole deepens.. To me I want to see how reliable this rumor is.. Thats why I said what I did and I will continue to say what I am saying..

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 11:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not irritated at all.

I generally agree with you and find such statements made by people on the internet to be most often false. I do happen to trust Al and his sources because he, unlike some, does not mention his sources in every thing he writes and instead only mentions them occasionally.

As for my source. Yeah, he's a coach and I don't think he'd care if I mentioned his name on this issue, but i've gotten other info from him that I know he would not like his name to be used so using it now would not be appropriate.

I also agree in that main-stream journalists would have the scoop if Prior were indeed injured. It's just not something that can be kept quiet these days. I simply made a phone call to ask if there was any truth to it. From what I could gather...there is none. Certainly not with regards to Prior. As for Wood, he hasn't any better idea than you and I have. Only guesses and his guess is like your's and mine...Woody ain't leaving the rotation if healthy.

by Maddog on Jan 23, 2006 12:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes but..

there is a difference first of all if you notice his rhetoric he says i have a friend who is "in the biz" with contacts in the Cubs organization... So not only does he not tell us who his source is but its not even someone with direct connection to the Cubs organization...

Second of all the poster you repeatedly reference in your post is me... I was the one who said that it went against logic and I was the one who said its irresponsible journalism to not reveal your sources.. And I believe I have a Supreme Court case as precedent for those feelings.. Even in the government they usually say "a high ranking source" or "blahdity blah blah blah" well you get the point.. They at least tell you a little bit about the source rather than just leaving it open with conjecture...

Lastly, I do not like how the articles are sorta tied together without Prior in the rotation the Cubs would need Wood to be a starter.. Now that doesnt mean Wood would necesarily have to be the closer which is what the author is insisting but rather than the Cubs would prefer Wood to stay a starter.. Which is inhereant by the obvious need to keep Wood a starter IF indeed Prior is hurt..

The Cubs have gone to great lengths to satisfy what was truly a weakness on the team last year.. the fact that they spent so much money on their bullpen adding Dempster (5 M) Eyre (3.5 M) Howry (4 M) and Williamson (2 M) is simply evident that either Kerry Wood recently told Hendry this...or this author is full of goat feces :)

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 2:13 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

great

was the one who said that it went against logic and I was the one who said its irresponsible journalism to not reveal your sources.. And I believe I have a Supreme Court case as precedent for those feelings..

the deterioration of a republican government of rights has become fodder for the masses.

by gaius marius on Jan 23, 2006 11:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Walker and the Orioles

I dont know about this Walker and the Orioles rumor... It really doesn't make much sense unless the Orioles are seriously worried about Roberts's elbow but Roberts has said he would be ready for opening day... as reported by rotowire

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=rotowire-rianobertslbowxpects&prov=rotowire&type=lgns

You really need to teach me how to get things to open in a new window there Al.. .anyhow.. If Roberts isnt ready he will be ready shortly thereafter..

and the Orioles are stacked anyhow at DH and the if...

1b- Millar/Lopez
2b- Roberts
SS-Tejada
3b-Mora

DH Candidates- Millar/Lopez/Hernandez...

I might be leaving out a few but i think thats it.. It makes no sense for the Orioles to make a grab at Walker unless it costs them just a minor pitching FA which is that all he is worth??

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 2:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

That is one thing...

that I don't like about letting Walker go. We probably won't get much for him because nobody needs him. He should just stay.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 2:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Walker

I've been a fan of Walker staying and I do like his offense. I'm changing my mind a bit, though, and while I don't necessarily want him dealt, I'm not going to complain about such a move.

My guess is that Walker may actually be seen as a cancer in the clubhouse and an attitude that the team wants to move. Walker has not lasted all that long anywhere he's played. He had big problems with Tom Kelly during his stint with the Minnesota Twins. It also seems as though he was far from innocent in 2004 with some of the situations that arose with the announcers.

If this isn't the case, from a statistical perspective, I like what Walker provides. I want that on our club. However, if Walker's attitude is an issue, then trading him may not be a problem.

As for Lugo, he'd be a nice get, however not for Hill or Pie. The Devil Rays remain a team that asks for too much, even with the GM change this offseason.

DmL

by dmlichte on Jan 22, 2006 4:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Plus...

he is a liability at second. He just can not turn the double play. Lugo or Walker is a tough choice, Lugo is a better defender and a good hitter, but Walker is a good left handed hitter.

by Imtrejo on Jan 22, 2006 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Dang.

Is Walker's personality so bad that it warrants picking up a wife-beater?

I don't know. I always think that I'd like to root for a team with decent people on it. Unless Walker behaves like Milton Bradley, I say we keep him instead of trading for Loogey.

by nickler on Jan 22, 2006 7:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wife Beating Et All

You know I would just like to answer your repeated slandering of Julio Lugo as a poor character guy.. First of all He was ACQUITTED of that charge...
In case you aren't aware of that his then wife said that she went to strike him and he was acting in self dience.. they are no longer married.. Since that time (now 3 years ago) Lugo has been out of the public eye... This obviously is not a Wil Cordero style wife beater ... The court records show that he was defending himself whether or not that is the case is beside the point the matter was tried in a court of law and he was NOT GUILTY..

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 7:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

I agree with you to a certain extent. I have just heard rumors and certainly don't know the whole story.

However, you DO have to wonder about a guy who is hitting his wife. I mean, come on. Self defense? Must be a big, scary woman if a MLB caliber player feels that threatened.

How about just walking away, checking into a hotel, and letting things cool off? I'd think most reasonable men would take this approach rather than hitting back.

Anyhow. Again I agree with you, don't get me wrong. It does have to raise some eyebrows and issues though when we are thinking of signing him.

by nickler on Jan 22, 2006 7:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

post theme

Wood is a high injury risk, who knows whether he is suited for any role this year or any other year. It's not wsie for the Cubs to count on him for anything this season.

It's hard to imagine him being used in relief because of his salary. This is an old comment, but it's true. Relievers are usually over-valued by mindsets like the Cubs' GM and Baker...thus the Cubs way over pay for relievers this off-season when their bullpen was actually solid and was set for this season...

So, it won't suprise me if the Cubs force Wood into the mythical closer role, assuming he can pitch.

regarding Prior's health? I'd say it's likely his elbow is still injured to a degree...The Cubs over-used him and ran him even harder after the injury was discovered, but that's the idiocy of Baker...

This off-season was so bizarre to me that I now think Hendry is a complete idiot (I always thought this about Baker)..
It has the makings of a hallmark 90+ loss season if the pitching is not totally dominant..

by DudeVf1 on Jan 22, 2006 2:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Walker trade

I don't think I like the idea of trading Walker and then getting Lugo. That is NOT going to be a straight up trade, the D-Rays were supposedly asking for the same return on Lugo that the Indians wound up getting for Crisp!
I for one am happy with Walker-Hairston at 2b. You have righty-lefty, speedy-avg./power, etc. I can definately see Hairston getting starts against lefties and coming in as a pinch-runner/def. replacement for Walker. If you bring in Lugo, what't the point of having Hairston, you'd be better off trading him too (with Perez as the back up middle infielder), and counting on Jones as your emergency centerfielder.

Sure, a Lugo trade could improve the cubs, but in my opinion, in order for it to make sense it would need to be far to complicated to make sense at this point in the offseason.

by WGNstatic on Jan 22, 2006 2:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Also..

The more i read Deluca's article and the more I look at the rosters the more i realize that Deluca was just being (for lack of a more professional word) a smartass... He was implying that we dump all of our hasbeens or players that we do not want anymore on the Orioles because well thats what the Cubs do.. Sosa.. Patterson.. because he does not back up the Oriole mention with anything substantial or any serious explaination of the trade.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Back to Kerry Projection

15 games
12 games started
63 innings
4-7 record
1 hold
0 saves
50 walks
58 strikeouts
4.87 ERA

I know, quite pessimistic, but my rationalization is this: If he avoids injury and has a breakthrough season, then I'll be more than pleasantly surprised. But if he doesn't, maybe i'll find some solace in predicting it.

by thekansasian on Jan 22, 2006 3:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

theres no chance that happens.

no chance.

by Ienpw on Jan 22, 2006 3:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

If he pitches, he's going to be good. The question is how much and how often and in what capacity. If he was below .500 I would be seriously surprised. My prediction:
26 games
26 games started
19 decisions
12 wins
7 losses
1.25 whip
3.56 ERA

by cubbybear on Jan 22, 2006 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Added

165 K
130 BB's

by cubbybear on Jan 22, 2006 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Optimism

My projections:

Wins: 17
Losses: 8
IP: 204.1
BB: 94
K: 240
ERA: 3.96

Based on nothing more than a feeling Kerry's going to give us the year we've always looked for. I'll probably be wrong, but I'd rather have some hope.

by Perkins on Jan 22, 2006 4:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Add in...

... your games and games started picks.

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 4:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

addendum

Games: 30
Games started: 30

by Perkins on Jan 22, 2006 5:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Were the bleachers not going to ready?

"The Wrigley Field bleachers expansion is on track for Opening Day, thanks to a dedicated Turner Construction Co., and some unseasonably warm weather". This is from Cubs.com website. My question is then if we didn't have this unseasonably warm weather and a dedicated Construction crew when was the bleacher project scheduled to be completed?

As for Wood, I'm optimistic that he will start at least 30 games for the cubs this year. If he doesn't and Hendry can't land Zito or someone of equal talent then we are in for a long season.

cubsfan4life

by cubfan4life on Jan 22, 2006 4:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Well...

... they'd just have had to work that much harder to get it done on time. As it is, I have a feeling they'll finish with several weeks to spare.

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 4:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Bleachers

I think this is just the team's way of giving credit to those doing the construction. It's amazing how much work can get done in a short time. All you need to do is look at some of the pics of the new Busch Stadium from Oct. and Nov. (go check out the Cards website). When the Cubs were beginning their bleacher addition, the Old Busch Stadium was still up and occupying a large chunk of the new stadium's left field as well as the seating area, gate area and concourse behind there. I realize that the work crew doing the Wrigley bleacher construction is not the size of the Busch work crew and perhaps had the weather not been as cooperative as it has been, the costs may have been higher or larger crews would have had to be employed.

Just compare the work that the Cubs needed to do on Wrigley and the work the Cards needed to do on the new Busch in the same timeframe.

DmL

by dmlichte on Jan 22, 2006 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My pick for Wood...

G: 30
GS: 30
IP: 198
Holds: 0
Saves: 0
Wins: 15
Losses: 8
Walks: 85
Strikeouts: 260
ERA: 3.70

(I've decided to be optimistic. But you probably guessed that.)

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 4:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Our Projections...

are eerily alike.. however I am curious to know if you looked at wood's career stats before doing this you have him on pace for a career low in walks and a career high in strikeouts yet a fairly high ERA to pair with those numbers... our records are nearly identical too.. which would also be a career high in wins... Im just curious why you think he will set those career highs..

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 4:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think..

... Wood is going to surprise everyone with a comeback, and that's why I picked him that well. Nothing specific, and in fact I hadn't even looked at yours when I made mine.

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 5:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

Woody will surprise us. I think the operation will help a lot, and since it's his contract year he should have some extra motivation.

I like doing these predictions. I can't to see what people predict for the other players.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 5:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Optimistic!?

11.8K/9!?

by slink on Jan 22, 2006 6:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Career average...

... is 10.43 per 9; higher in his good years.

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 6:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Based on your projections...

...Al, is that enough for the Cubs to give Wood a new contract after this season.

cubsfan4life

by cubfan4life on Jan 22, 2006 8:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

... let's see what the whole community comes up with.

If he does what I projected, then yes, I'd say it would.

by Al on Jan 23, 2006 4:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

By the way Al,

Just so you mnow i doubt I will find the time to get the group totals this time I start Monday at a new school for student teaching and will be vesting most of my time there.. You shouldnt have any trouble finding someone to do it however. :)

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 4:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Good luck

Good luck student teaching, and welcome to the world of education!

by WGNstatic on Jan 22, 2006 4:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I wish you luck too!

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 4:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hello and Perhaps Goodbye???

Well right now the plan is for me to student teach take the GRE in the summer and apply for graduate school right away I was offered a deal by a member in my family that if i went to grad school right away I would receive tuition reimbursement.. not a bad deal... There are overtures in my family that tell me i should just go all the way for my doctorate... If i do that Im looking at being a principal.. or other job of higher authority..

Thank both of you for your good luck wishes ;) (WGN + Sparkles)

One funny thing I heard that I may end up doing (in April anyway) is giving a quiz when the Cubs lose haha ill make Cubs fans out of these kids yet bwhahhahahha

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 4:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh no...

that's not good! :)

I hope you do make some Cubs fans. What grade are you teaching?

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 22, 2006 5:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I will be educating the impressionalble...

4th and 5th graders... Who knows maybe i make a bunch of Cubs fans or maybe i make a bunch of Cardinal and Sox fans the least I can do is get them into baseball... Its not so much who you cheer for but your passion for the game that is important.. (my certification is 4-9th grades middle schoolers) Fun little bunch they are...

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 5:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That being the case...

... would anyone else like to volunteer to total up this projection, and others that I'll post over the next few weeks?

by Al on Jan 22, 2006 5:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think...

I can handle doing that. I won't be able to get to Wood until Tuesday though.

by Imtrejo on Jan 22, 2006 5:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Tuesday...

... will be fine; I'm sure a lot of people will see this post for the first time on Monday.

Thanks!

by Al on Jan 23, 2006 4:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wood's numbers...

G-28
GS-28
IP-172
HOLDS-0
SAVES-0
WINS-13
LOSSES-5
WALKS-67
SO-185
ERA-3.85

by Imtrejo on Jan 22, 2006 4:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wood

I'll skip a couple of categories, because I really just want to focus my optimism on Wood's starts and IP.

G-29
GS-29
IP-189
WINS-15
LOSSES-7
ERA-3.71

As far as a Walker trade, if we bring in a good replacement, then I can live with it. If we ship him out and then go with an in-house guy, then I may be sick. But between Baltimore all ready having Brian Roberts and the fact that Tampa Bay asks for a lot in every potential trade, I'll be surprised if this scenario happens. Besides a possible tweak or two, I think we're probably done making moves.

"If it takes forever."

by JDay on Jan 22, 2006 5:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wood Projection

27 G
27 Starts
162 IP
No Saves/Holds
12-10
65 BB
180 K
4.10 ERA

by Maddog on Jan 22, 2006 6:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Survey.

I think Wood is going to do great this year. I hate to say it, but a lot of it I believe will have to do with the fact that this is his contract year.

Just look at what Kevin Milwood did last year.

Even if Wood performs really well, I would think he'd really have to take a major pay cut for the Cubs to think about re-signing him. I'd make sure he understands how much he's put the team through with his humongous salary and inability to play for the last several years.

As for the Walker deal, why on earth would the O's want Walker? They have Roberts, a young and outstanding 2B. Why would they want a one year guy? And who could they possibly give us that we would be happy with?

The only thing the O's have that I would want are the following, none of which they would be willing to give up:

Bruce Chen
Erik Bedard
Miguel Tejada
Dave Roberts
Jorge Julio (just traded to Mets)

So, since we're not getting any of them, we should not be dealing with them.

Unless Dusty wants LaTroy back. Ha ha.

by nickler on Jan 22, 2006 7:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

As an aside...

I emailed Deluca and asked him about his trade rumor report.. asked him if he was just being sarcastic about Walker's name being mentioned with the orioles or if he had a source that had keyed him off on Walker's name legitmitely being mentioned in trade talks... we will see how it unfolds.

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 22, 2006 8:45 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Let us know...

... what you find out!

by Al on Jan 23, 2006 4:37 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Response from DeLuca bout the Walker rumor

Andrew:

Well, the Orioles have been the Cubs' dumping ground, but there has been legitimate interest from Baltimore in Walker. Brian Roberts is the starting second baseman, but there are lingering concerns about the dislocated elbow that ended his 2005 season in September. Walker would be a left-handed bat off the bench and an insurance policy if Roberts' was slow to heal. No dry humor on this one.

Chris

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 23, 2006 7:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Roberts

Didn't Brian Roberts have surgery recently? Maybe the O's don't expect him to be back right away?

by FukudomeAtLarge on Jan 23, 2006 5:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

My Wood Prediction

G 16
GS 12
IP 78
W 6
L 2
ERA 3.35
BB 36
K 85
HR 5

by dvdmgsr on Jan 23, 2006 9:06 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

After having time...

...to think about it. Here are my predictions.

G - 30
GS - 30
IP - 200
W - 16
L - 8
K'S - 217
ERA - 3.45

Kerry will not accumulate any hold or save stats until Baker needs him in a crucial late game situation in the playoffs. He will also deserve a twenty win season this year, but the lack of run support that has plagued him throughout his career will once again rear it's ugly head. He may not begin the season with the Cubs but will be starting games by mid to late april. Prior,Z and Wood will emerge as the fearsome three as everyone in the past predicted they would become. Again, these are just my pathetic hopeful predictions.

By the way, the idea Wood wants to be the Cubs closer is preposterous. When he was in the bullpen last year he always said he wanted to be a starter and this was just temporary. Wood still sees himself as a top flight major league starter. As stubborn as he is, it's going to take alot more than shoulder surgery to get him out of the rotation.

cubsfan4life

by cubfan4life on Jan 23, 2006 10:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

The agonizing that we've done over the offense not being able to score that much-needed run will hurt this year. Thanks to the Jacques Jones signing, it may hurt even more.

I predict that Wood will begin as a REGULAR starter in May, and will have a solid year on the mound. Unfortunately, as cubsfan4life said, the offense is going to give a lot of us ulcers again, and our SP will lose out on a few deserved victories because of it. Still, I'll say he wins more than 50% of his starts.

2006 Projection:

G - 29
GS - 23
IP - 175
W - 12
L - 9
K'S - 190
ERA - 3.35

All in all, I see a pretty good year for Woody.

by The Jade Scorpion on Jan 23, 2006 10:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Woody in 06'

I think Dusty's going to ease him in by starting him off in the pen, but he definitely won't close any games. If he doesn't relieve initially he'll defintely come out of the pen for a couple games after missing few starts half-way through the season due to a minor injury.

Games: 29

Games Started: 25

Innings: 162

Wins: 10

Losses: 6

Holds: 3

Saves: 0

Walks: 78

Strikeouts: 159

ERA: 3.69

"You ever heard of a slump buster? You take the ugliest girl you can find and just lay the wood to her." --Mark Grace

by LosCachorros on Jan 23, 2006 10:28 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

contributing

I think the first and most important relevant piece of information in the article is that Hendry's intent that the roster is not set a month before pitchers and catchers report to Tucson.

I have consistently heard (and all press reports back this up) that Hendry is seeking to upgrade the infield defense and add more speed to the lineup. Lugo provides this although he appears to be a stop gap measure where Furcal was a solution. However I think that Lugo would be asked to move to 2B so that Cedeno (who now is a long term solution) can develop. As was always the case Perez is the able-bodied super utility man.

That leaves Walker (and possibly Hairston) out. Unless Hairston is a somewhat platoon guy for Jones against tough left handers he is a man without a position (unless there is an unforeseen injury).

OK Wood, here is my guess for the $11M plus fireballer. He will be traded. To whom I am not certain but my guess is that the Yankees or O's or RedSox or Angels or someone will pick up his option year and see if he the man.

That is my guess.

Walker to the O's appears to be the never ending continuing deal that involved Sosa for Hairston/Crouthers who retired, for Patterson for Spears and a bag of balls....

Bill Veeck planted them during the depression, ivy on the walls.

by Ivy Walls on Jan 23, 2006 11:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

someone has to say it

and with all the people here thinking wood is going to make 30 starts or more -- btw, do you guys realize that he's done that in only two of his six big league seasons? -- looks like i'll be the one:

0 g
0 gs
0 ip
0 w
0 l
0 h
0 sv
0 bb
0 k
n/a ERA

there's a significant chance that he feels pain throwing in rehab and never pitches in 2006. just saying, odds are probably better of that than of his making 30 starts.

by gaius marius on Jan 23, 2006 11:59 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

But maybe...

we are counting his simulated games in our projections ;) I kid.. but seriously I do not see Wood not throwing one inning this year even when he was hurt last year he went to the bullpen to get some work in. So you may not see him making those 30 starts but at least give him some bullpen appearances or are you just trying to be the yang to Al's yin

by cubsfan2883 on Jan 23, 2006 12:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wood will pitch.

On this one, I can't agree, Gaius.

Wood will pitch this year. Besides the fact that it is a "contract" year, the club will be pressed to get him in the rotation, both due to the weakness there and the fact that they're paying Wood too much money NOT to beat his arm up.

There is too much at stake on both ends in this case. Wood will pitch, and will make a decent number of starts. He'll be on a constant pitch count, but he'll be there - just not right away, probably.

I do think 23 starts is a good projection. There is still the possibility that the Cubs are so far out at the trade deadline or a few weeks before that he gets traded or rested for the remainder of 2006. My projections don't include those possibilities.

He will pitch, though, and should have a decent year.

by The Jade Scorpion on Jan 23, 2006 12:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

it may not be a matter

of what they want, nrc. he may feel pain, end up at dr. andrews' office and be told that he needs more surgery to ever pitch again.

i agree that, if they have choices, both sides wil choose to pitch. but they may not. wood would be far from the first pitcher to miss a contract year.

by gaius marius on Jan 23, 2006 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I happen...

... to not agree with you, but this is a reasonable position to take, and when the totals are added up, we'll add in your zeroes.

by Al on Jan 23, 2006 12:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No way...

He will definitely pitch this year. That is just an extreme, and you know you will be wrong.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 23, 2006 3:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

while

I will agree that it is a possiblity for those 0's to occur, I'll also put the odds in the same category as me with Jessica Alba.

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Jan 23, 2006 6:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup

30-35 starts is too optimistic--even my prediction of 25 starts is pushing it.

"You ever heard of a slump buster? You take the ugliest girl you can find and just lay the wood to her." --Mark Grace

by LosCachorros on Jan 23, 2006 12:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

This should get a comment or 2

75 Games,
0 Games Started,
95 Innings Pitched,
4 Wins,
4 Losses,
8 Holds,
33 Saves
3 Blown Saves
45 Walks,
120 Strikeouts,
3.34 ERA

Dempster blows out his elbow again while Kerry is still getting his arm strength up for moving back into the rotation. Cubs already have Zambrano, ZITO, Prior, Maddux, Rusch starting. Rusch is doing well as the 5th starter. Kerry steps in to close and does well.

by jcg996 on Jan 23, 2006 1:52 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

This scenario...

... isn't implausible.

by Al on Jan 23, 2006 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh no!

Dempster!?!?

Can we stay away from predicting injuries?? Please?

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 23, 2006 3:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well of course

you must understand that, knowing how often I am flat wrong, that sometimes I have to say things so that they WON'T happen...

by jcg996 on Jan 23, 2006 7:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Wood's stats

G: 22
GS: 22
IP: 126
Holds: 0
Saves: 0
Wins: 6
Losses: 10
Walks: 60
Strikeouts: 119
ERA: 4.70

by gbs on Jan 23, 2006 3:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wade Miller

is now a Cub. One year.

by TR on Jan 23, 2006 4:12 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I too

remember many games the bullpen has blown for Wood. But if he wasn't hitting the 100 pitch mark in the 5th and 6th inning, he'd stick around and be able to finish what he started. With the Cub bullpen the past couple of seasons, no pitcher could have left the game with a slim lead in the 6th or 7th and felt very good about their chances for a W.

I think Wood is gone after this year. How much more money can this team spend on the guy? If they gave out wins for Ks/9 innings and Opponents' Batting Average, he'd be one of the best. But by '07, a young guy or two should be in the rotation at a cheap price. Spend the extra money to lock up other players, not a guy who's hurt all the time.

In fact, if Wood's going good next year (which would be amazing in itself} and the Cubs aren't in the thick of it {way more likely} they should unload Wood and at least get something for him before he signs with Texas or Houston next winter.

by TR on Jan 23, 2006 4:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

My prediction...

G:31
GS:31
Innings:207.2
Wins:17
Losses:6
Walks:89
Strikeouts:223
ERA:3.48

Can you say Comeback Player of the Year? :)

Gaius, I wasn't going to make this prediction, but your prediction made me decide that Kerry would do better.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes. Time to sPaRkLe Jimmy!

by sparkles721 on Jan 23, 2006 7:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I like it!

Let's hope you're right. I also want to see Kerry become what we all know he can be.

by Perkins on Jan 23, 2006 8:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Bleed Cubbie Blue Projections...

These are the final numbers, with some slight rounding.

G-28
GS-22
IP-149
WINS-11
LOSES-6
HOLDS-2
SAVES-2
WALKS-67
STRIKE OUTS-162
ERA-3.79

I did not simply average the ERA's, as that would give to much weight to the 4.87 ERA with only 63 IP. I figured out the predicted Earned Runs Allowed which was 1004.
As for Holds and Saves, I am not sure the community average is the best way to judge those predictions. Only six people predicted Bull Pen time, only four of those gave Hold and Save predictions. Only one daring soul predicted Wood to have any saves, and he projected 33 saves with 8 holds.
Not a bad overall season if Wood can put up those numbers, would it warrent a new contract...I'm glad I don't make these choices.

by Imtrejo on Jan 24, 2006 1:09 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I see what you mean

I guess averaging doesn't quite work as well for pitching stat predictions as it does for batting. If Wood somehow produced these exact numbers there would either be a lot of things seriously wrong with other team members from time to time, or Kerry would just be getting jerked around from role to role (maybe short relief to spot closer, then long relief, and finally back in the rotation). That's probably not too therapeutic even over a short span.

Thanks for running the numbers. If he has this kind of a season, I'd say he's on the way back and deserves an extension.

by jcg996 on Jan 24, 2006 1:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs