Prior Arrangements
This Baseball Prospectus article by Will Carroll has the Cublogosphere in a tizzy today.
I say, relax.
Will Carroll's report is an unattributed, unsubstantiated rumor. And, considering the breathless diaries that have been posted here on this topic, it seems that everyone wants to believe that this is just one more "lie" told by Jim Hendry and the coaching staff.
Ask yourself this: what purpose would that serve? Prior himself has admitted that he had a flu bug over the winter that made him "weak and sick", which is the terminology used by the BP report.
So what? There is absolutely no evidence that he has any physical problems; doing the towel drill, which is a feature of Larry Rothschild's regime, means absolutely nothing.
Getting all excited about this, nine days before the first spring game and twelve or thirteen days before Prior is supposed to make his first Cactus League appearance, is only going to give you unnecessary migraines and stomach trouble.
I say again, relax. Prior wasn't scheduled to throw off a mound for another couple of days, anyway. If that doesn't happen, sure, go ahead and ask more questions. But to throw out accusations that they are "obfuscating" because "ticket sales for single games [are] starting Friday", as Chuck did, to my mind is stirring the pot for no reason other than ... well, there's no reason, actually.
I get made fun of when I say this, but I'm saying it again anyway.
Patience.
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i'm not sure--the tickets going on sale could be a factor, but the cubs have been about as dishonest in reporting injuries to the pitchers the last couple years as any team on record. we don't know why, we just know that's who we're dealing with.
however, IF what the cubs say is true--that prior was behind in his off-season workouts due to the flue (which is possible), and that they attribute some of the problems of past springs to starting too fast, so they want to start slower (which is also possible--though if its the case maybe he needs a little more off-season work), then nothing we're seeing this spring is out of the ordinary. Further, the Cubs couldn't do anything to prove these unsubstantiated reports to be true without adjusting prior's spring regimen just to prove rumors wrong.
all we can do is wait and see. However, the Cubs can be pissed about all these rumors, but if they hadn't been so dishonest in the past, nobody would be paying attention to this rumor now.
JMan
by jman on Feb 21, 2006 10:05 AM CST reply actions
I agree...
by sparkles721 on Feb 21, 2006 10:12 AM CST up reply actions
Expectations...
The reason a Prior injury would affect ticket sales is it would have a big impact on expectations. How many previews of the Cubs 2004, 2005, or 2006 seasons have not mentioned the degree to which this team relies on its starting pitching to carry it? Personally, i haven't found many. Usually, when talking about the Cubs chances in 2006, the first words out of someone's mouth/keyboard are something along the lines of "If Wood and Prior are healthy..."
Its simple: if Prior did have an injury (i'm not saying he does), then there would be a huge incentive to delay announcement until after ticket sales start this week. Otherwise, the team risks ruining expectations and the corresponding ticket sales.
By the way, regardless of the team's "expectations" for the upcoming year, i plan to make the 3 hour trek from State College to Pittsburgh in mid-April to see them play the Buccos. So I won't be affected by expectations. I'm sure most of the people here won't, either. But you're the die-hard fans that will show up no matter what. Expectations only affect the fair-weather fans.
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 21, 2006 11:47 AM CST up reply actions
Sources?
As for Prior the next 3 weeks will be telling won't they? The AZ press has no inkling however.
You're right about one thing
Of course, if this is rumor turns out to be true, I have to blame Dusty for throwing Prior's arm off in 2003. Worst. . . manager. . .ever.
Oops
by cubbiejulie on Feb 21, 2006 10:15 AM CST up reply actions
What is most interesting, of course, is...
I don't see how shoulder trouble could have come up over a winter of inactivity, particularly if he had a bad flu for a couple of weeks.
Instead of panicking and rumormongering, why not wait to see what he actually does?
Where's the fun in that, Al?
;)
BTW--I walked by Channel 7 on the way to Potbelly yesterday. Nice new digs!
by cubbiejulie on Feb 21, 2006 10:19 AM CST up reply actions
Oh, just you wait...
Target date is early April.
Saw the new digs
Isn't this the 2nd year we've been hearing about shoulder trouble? No matter what we're going to find out how healthy he really is in the next few weeks. Worrying about it or trying to read-between-the-lines just seems like a waste of time.
by jman on Feb 21, 2006 10:28 AM CST up reply actions
And
by cubbiejulie on Feb 21, 2006 11:39 AM CST up reply actions
or
by gaius marius on Feb 21, 2006 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
That's what I meant
by cubbiejulie on Feb 21, 2006 12:11 PM CST up reply actions
of course it's
it's true he didn't throw all that well in many starts, but the key is that he didn't miss any.
a lot of pitchers throw with pain that will require drastic measures to remediate -- a la wade miller 2005. prior's relative ineffectiveness last year might have been onset symptoms -- but this is speculative, of course.
by gaius marius on Feb 21, 2006 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
I already waited all of winter...
I played football...
People tend to think "oh the flu - no big deal." But let me tell you, it can be pretty incapacitating. Even as a scrappy 18 year-old-kid, I had a hard time doing anything without feeling very sore and sleepy.
It may indeed be more than the flu; but if it is just the flu, I can empathize with the delay in training. It really does take a few weeks to get back to 100%. If it is the flu, at least we know he'll be back to full strength by the start of the season, with plenty of warm-up throws along the way.
Let's hope that's all it is.
by The Jade Scorpion on Feb 21, 2006 10:41 AM CST reply actions
In one of the other....
a) the Cubs are very worried about Prior's shoulder; and
b) some folks' expectations regarding Prior's success this season should be significantly lowered.
Now, gaius could be right, but the Cubs' treatment of Prior thus far could ALSO be an indication that the organization is sick and tired of seeing a potential Cy Young award candidate miss the first month of the season because of injuries flairing up during spring training. Prior proved that what the Cubs did last year didn't work for him...so they're trying things another way, letting him build slowly to a full pitching motion and taking their time before subjecting him to the rigors of throwing off a mound. To be honest, I don't think this is necessairly a bad thing.
I will stipulate that the Cubs are probably worried about Prior's elbow and/or shoulder...and they should be...
Just like they should be worried about EVERY pitcher on their staff's throwing elbow and shoulder!!!
Gaius is right when he says that repeatedly pitching a baseball is an unnatural motion that puts tremendous stress on the joints of the arm. So, doing everything they can to:
a) help mitigate that stress; and
b) better prepare their pitchers' individual bodies to deal with it;
seems to me to be a wise course of action for the Cubs to follow...
by Santos L Halper on Feb 21, 2006 10:43 AM CST reply actions
could be
by gaius marius on Feb 21, 2006 11:05 AM CST up reply actions
I read somewhere that it was
Pharyngitis
Complications of pharyngitis
The possible complications of strep throat include rheumatic fever, kidney inflammation, chorea, bacteremia (bloodstream infection) and, rarely, streptococcal shock syndrome
In some severe forms of pharyngitis (e.g., severe mononucleosis-pharyngitis) the airway may become blocked.
Peritonsillar abscess or retropharyngeal abscess are possible.
http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/000655.htm
---
I'm guessing he had a bad case if he had to go to the emergency room.
by RobG @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Feb 21, 2006 2:06 PM CST up reply actions
Pharyngitis is no phun
Having been there with pharyngitis, if Prior is slowed from battling pharyngitis then I certainly understand that.
Both Sides
by ksucubbie on Feb 21, 2006 11:20 AM CST reply actions
very true
still, applying a little kremlinology to this effort to quiet the restless natives is not promising -- nowhere did hendry actually bother to say that prior is in perfect health, which stinks of plausible deniability.
by gaius marius on Feb 21, 2006 11:35 AM CST up reply actions
This is random...
I'm trying to do an outline for a paper and I can't do it. I can't think. I just sit and stare at the screen, but I'm going to keep trying to do it.
A few comments
As far as elbow injuries, we shouldn't make the mistake that just because Prior didn't miss starts aside from the achillies stuff and the line shot off his arm that Prior doesn't have elbow problems. As I've said before, there are some who speculate that Prior's diminished effectiveness since 2003 is a result of injury. Some scouts have speculated that Prior's problems locating his pitches are a result of some type of elbow problem.
Bottom line: I hope the Cubs, behind the scenes are dealing with all of this. I just shudder at the thought that they may be responsible for ruining two "once in a generation" arms.
DmL
Right on DmL
Your line about "ruining two 'once in a generation' arms" is really scary. Since the NLCS in 2003 things could not have gone much worse for this franchise. Counting on Wood and Prior for a third straight year will be this franchises downfall this season.
I don't have patience for an organization that is "less than honest" with the media and fans regarding the health of their franchise pitchers. I reserve patience for children and people that I trust. I have no reason to trust the Chicago NL ballclub.
"I don't have patience...
Then you must absolutely DESPISE the NFL and the NHL. Football and hockey (especially during playoff time) are way more reticent about giving accurate information regarding player health than MLB.
by Santos L Halper on Feb 21, 2006 1:55 PM CST up reply actions
Hardly
by jolietconvict on Feb 21, 2006 2:17 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah..
by Santos L Halper on Feb 21, 2006 2:50 PM CST up reply actions
Excellent point
And anyone who plays fantasy football can tell you how much NFL injury reports are worth: not a damn thing.
CCD...
And
http://www.suntimes.com/output/cubs/cst-spt-prior21.html
"I haven't seen any signs of him looking weak or sick,'' he said. "There is no controversy, no problems. There is nothing wrong with him.''
So either this is B.S. or Hendry just set himself up for a major PR nightmare.
by RobG @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Feb 21, 2006 2:10 PM CST reply actions
yup...
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 21, 2006 2:34 PM CST up reply actions
Will Carroll responds to the response
Does anyone else see where he disclaims the report heavily?
by jman on Feb 21, 2006 3:18 PM CST reply actions
Based on the way I read that...
Now, I only saw the truncated version (I don't have a BP subscription) -- does anyone else see where he disclaimed it?
In any case, Will ought to know better, because this is a sore-spot topic, given, as many of you have said, the past history of untruths about Cub pitchers. He should have known this would inflame the blogosphere. Now he retracts?
It appears to be tempest-in-a-teapot. But we shall see.
I meant the BP report
by jman on Feb 21, 2006 3:37 PM CST up reply actions
i think
"Reliable sources--the same ones that tipped us early to Mark Prior's Achilles problem--now tell us that Prior is having shoulder problems. The Cubs deny this and point to Prior's work on the mound. Prior was doing towel drills on Saturday, but this is the same type of work he was doing last year when there was a problem. According to our best sources in Mesa, Prior looks "weak and sick." Until he throws, we just won't know, though I'd like to believe Larry Rothschild."
That's hardly disclaiming the rumor heavily, in fact he's not disclaiming it at all--if anything he's trying to validate it as much as possible by saying how much stock he puts in his source.
He also says that people are making much more of this than it is--first, how is that possible since an injured prior would likely remove hat chance we have of contending, and second, what did he think was going to happen?
This is crappy--he's backpedalling from his original statements and taking shots at the cubs at teh same time.
only if
your sources stand behind it. now that the poop has hit the fan, it would hardly be unprecedented for sources, under pressure from above, to recant on their stories (honestly or not).
that said -- carroll isn't backing off anything here that i can see. indeed, he doesn't have any need to. he simply repeated a report from a source that prior is hurt. the histrionics that followed are not his doing.
and he's right to say he disclaimed it -- his lead words are, "You can't have spring training anymore without pitcher problems or at least rumors of said problems. Those usually start with the Cubs, and this year is no different." that's a pretty significant deflator.
by gaius marius on Feb 22, 2006 11:46 AM CST up reply actions
ASDGL;KNB NTWPIERJHGBGHN!!!!!
by Shawn Domagal-Goldman on Feb 21, 2006 8:41 PM CST up reply actions
it's all over
You can't have spring training anymore without pitcher problems or at least rumors of said problems. Those usually start with the Cubs, and this year is no different. Reliable sources--the same ones that tipped us early to Mark Prior's Achilles problem--now tell us that Prior is having shoulder problems. The Cubs deny this and point to Prior's work on the mound. Prior was doing towel drills on Saturday, but this is the same type of work he was doing last year when there was a problem. According to our best sources in Mesa, Prior looks "weak and sick." Until he throws, we just won't know, though I'd like to believe Larry Rothschild.
i boldfaced everything there that is a qualifier. it's most of his report.
by gaius marius on Feb 22, 2006 11:51 AM CST up reply actions
The last sentence...
It sure got some attention for Will's BP site, didn't it?
every qualifier
like saying, this could all be hogwash, but i've never been wrong before and i'm not likely to be wrong now.
Obfuscating
In celebration I'm going to have a tee shirt made up saying "I don't want no more stinking obfuscation".
Orders are being accepted now by my crack marketing team.
I'll take one!
by Tom @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Feb 21, 2006 3:58 PM CST up reply actions
why would your team...
by dc60123 @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Feb 21, 2006 4:08 PM CST up reply actions
good question,
by blueisthecolor on Feb 23, 2006 3:34 PM CST up reply actions
Totally off topic
Who else hates those stupid Tribune commercials? Here's one just for Cubs fans:
Hot off the MLB wire
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/wire?section=mlb&id=2338480
Notable quotes:
"Slowed by a two-week throat infection this winter -- one that sent him to the emergency room -- his early regimen has been limited to throwing off flat ground and working on endurance."
"'I feel good. I felt good out there yesterday, and I expect to be on the mound here in a couple of days," he said. "My body feels good. I'm getting closer. It's a process to get ready for the season. It's not just show up and go to work. I don't feel sick and weak.'"
"Notes:@ A slimmed-down Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs' cleanup hitter and third baseman, said he still hasn't decided whether he will play for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. But he's leaning toward staying with the Cubs all spring. Ramirez batted .302 with 31 homers and 92 RBIss a year ago despite missing the final month with a strained left quadriceps. "I want to play but, you know, we got to see what my health is first. I want to check with the doctors. I want to do some running and then decide whether I will go or not," Ramirez said."
by Tom @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Feb 21, 2006 4:54 PM CST reply actions
Lupus? Is it Lupus?
If Prior throws off the mound at the end of the week, I want Will Carroll tarred and feathered.
by felixfelicis on Feb 22, 2006 12:16 AM CST reply actions
Let's just discuss
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Feb 22, 2006 9:57 PM CST reply actions
more light
among the things he said, i thought this quote was interesting:
"Fair enough, but Carroll's credibility came into question after he acknowledged Wednesday he didn't know the source in March 2004, when word of Prior's Achilles' tendon injury first surfaced. Carroll searched his personal archives before realizing he never had written about the Achilles injury before the public knew about it."
One thing is certain--Caroll has enjoyed a lot of traffic at his web site because of these "rumors".
How interesting...
I think Teddy Greenstein is cute.

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