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Bleacher Reconstruction & Ticket Sale Update - February 25, And Fun With Numbers

Before I tell you about David's latest set of photos, taken yesterday in and around the first day of ticket sales (he had a very good wristband number!), here's some more fun with numbers, and a good lesson in why number-crunching doesn't tell you everything about winning baseball.

Hat tip to both The Cub Reporter and my SB Nation colleague Larry at Viva El Birdos for pointing me to this fun little device, Steve's Lineup Toy. You can plug in numbers there from 2003 to 2005 to see how many runs a specific lineup would generate (at least in theory).

There's another version located here where you can use two different 2006 projections to come up with predicted runs scored totals for this year. Projections, of course, are just that, projections -- so I ran a number of different ones just for grins.

Using this actual 2005 lineup from June 29 vs. Milwaukee, a lineup most of us cringed when we saw it: Patterson, cf; Perez, ss; Lee, 1b, Burnitz, rf; Ramirez, 3b; Walker, 2b; Hollandsworth, lf; Barrett, c; Wood, p -- the toy says it would generate 5.0 runs per 27 outs. (I had to use another hitter in place of Wood since he wasn't listed, so I chose Greg Maddux).

The toy, of course, didn't make the lineup the way Dusty did; it ordered it Walker, Barrett, Lee, Ramirez, Burnitz, Perez, Hollandsworth, Patterson, Maddux.

Entering the proposed 2006 starters for Opening Day gives this "best" batting order: Cedeno, ss; Murton, lf; Lee, 1b; Ramirez, 3b; Barrett, c; Walker, 2b; Zambrano, p (!); Jones, rf; Pierre, cf

Sure, Z's a good hitter, but seventh? And that lineup generates 6.5 runs per 27 outs, pretty darn good and FAR better than last year's. Now, of course Z isn't going to bat seventh, and the toy doesn't let you put in your own lineup. Incidentally, replacing Cedeno with Miguel Tejada generates 6.7 runs per 27 outs, while still having Pierre bat ninth.

OK, what about putting these players into the 2006 projection toy? Problem 1: no pitchers are listed there, so you have to choose a "poor" hitter (TCR suggests Neifi, but I put in Jose Macias, who -- I presume -- would generate pitcherlike numbers, and does indeed get the #9 slot). That lineup reads: Pierre, cf; Murton, lf; Lee, 1b; Ramirez, 3b; Barrett, c; Jones, rf; Walker, 2b; Cedeno, ss; pitcher.

That lineup generates, by projection, 5.7 runs per 27 outs, still far higher than 2005's rotten lineups. Swapping Tejada for Cedeno raises it to 5.9. Actually, that above lineup wouldn't be a bad one at all.

Will Dusty use it? Ever? Doubt it. The lineup toy works in this way:

The Lineup Toy uses the following method for suggesting a lineup: 1. Put the best OPS in 3rd 2. Put the best remaining Slg in 4th 3. Put the best remaining OBP's in 1st and 2nd (with the better Slg in 2nd) 4. Arrange the remaining players in order of descending Slg
Now, that's not a bad way to do things -- but is that real-world? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Is that always the BEST way to construct a lineup? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Number-crunchers sometimes forget that baseball isn't played inside a PC, it is played on a field with real flesh-and-blood human beings.

Anyway, fun little diversion on a Saturday.

Speaking of lineups, I learned from this Arizona Republic article that in spring training games, NL teams can use the DH in their home park if they get permission from the opposing team. The Reds did this last year with Ken Griffey, Jr., and the Giants are apparently going to do it with Barry Bonds. According to the article:

The process will be easier this spring, because major league general managers agreed in November to drop the provision that N.L. teams must petition the commissioner's office to use designated hitters at home. Now, all a team must do is inform the umpires and the opposing club before each game. There's a caveat: The visiting team can veto a home N.L. team's request to use a D.H. It can elect to let its pitchers hit while allowing the home N.L. team to employ a D.H. Or it can also use a D.H.
This being the case, I don't understand why every team wouldn't do this every game. In spring games, pitchers rarely bat anyway.

Also, I got mine over at Humbug for stealing his anagram idea the other day. Hey, I even admitted I stole it. All in good fun, right?

Finally, here's another photo update. The first few photos are of the ticket sale; the rest are updates of the construction. You'll actually be amazed at how much was done in just the 24 hours since I took pictures on Thursday. The timeline has also been updated.

Top: line at ticket windows; staging area for wristband winners before they go to the windows; more ticket windows (note White Sox flag on construction truck parked on Clark); more construction trucks and ticket buyers

Middle: crane loading equipment onto RF structure; brick wall on Sheffield; LF, with view of brick wall and back fence; closeup of wall in left-center (Waveland)

Bottom: CF restaurant under construction; closeup of Sheffield wall; wider view of Sheffield wall; this is where the wall will end and the new bleacher entrance will begin

Photos by David Sameshima

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The lineup Toy and I
Agree with Murton hitting 2nd...

Also you want to have your highest OPS guy hitting 3rd..for two reasons...One he has to have the ability to slug the ball and two he has to have the ability to get on if he does not slug the ball to make way for the cleanup hitter which is the guy with the highest SLG % on the team. .. Now that being said this is how the lineup SHOULD look IMO..

CF- Pierre .357 Career OBP 75% SB% over his career

LF- Murton- hit well last year has decent speed. can hit for a high obp/avg.. understands situations well. can HIT TO THE OPPPOSITE FIELD... If Pierre gets on steals second.. the 2 hitters job is to get him to 3rd... Murton is a good oppposite field hitter.

1b- Lee.... No duh...

3b- Ramirez.. When he is healthy anyway...

RF- Jones-  A lot of people are down on Jones.. I am also guility of said downness... however he is a better option here than Barrett or anyone else the Cubs have... plus it gives you a lefty after a string of righties...

2b Walker/Hairston/Perez- The Three headed monster rawr.  Scary huh? Only for us... Can we fuse Walker and Perez together and take Walker's bat  and .300 AVG and Perez's above average D and range and make Todd Perez?

C- Michael Barrett/ Hank White-  Hank has a lot of the pitchers wanting to throw to him... Maybe its because he calls a better game makes up for pitchers mistakes by having an above average arm... especially maddux...maddux does NOT hold the runners... i want to bounce my head off of a wall watching runners just gallop around the bases..

SS- Ronny Cedeno/Perez- Now I predict a platoon here.. Only because I do not know if Cedeno is for real or if he is a one trick pony.  Lets hope its the former and NOT the latter.  Cedeno and Perez can hit 8th... especially when Z or Wood are on teh mound...otherwise it might be a wise idea to flip the 7th and 8th hitters... because you want a guy who can get on in front of the pitcher so that the pitcher does not lead off the next innning.. so heres to you Mr. Ronny Cedeno..lets hope you are an Aerosmith rather than a Dexy's Midnight Runners

Pitcher spot...

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 25, 2006 11:55 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

lies, damn lies, and...
I love the ideal old school scout, noting skills, watching ball players, and projecting from the gut.  I am also a scientist though, and love the statistics of Baseball.  The meaningfullness stats over a long season are part of why I love baseball.  

The new world of stats, most notably OPS and winshares, are certainly interesting, but, to me, they may do as much harm as good.  In the "old days" a stat head would be forced to think about a large collection of stats, hits, rbi, walks, BA, steals, caught stealing, etc.  Anyone who does statistical analyses for a living knows that stats can be very complicated and interpreted in a number of ways.  Interpretation of statistics is a skill.  My gripe with stats like OPS is that many folks use them INSTEAD of statistical analysis.   Two examples:
1)Speed.  OPS does nothing to take speed into account.  Though it is common sense that with two outs in the 9th Pierre on 2nd is FAR more valuable than Henry Blanco (or Hank White for that matter) in the same position.  Does speed on the bases improve the batters BA (distracted pitcher, holes opened as infielders shift)?  Can this be taken into account?  Clearly speed is grossly under represented in most new stats.

2) Power.  Bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, down by a run.  A is a triple really 80% as valuable as a HR? of course not! On the flip side, bases loaded, down by 2 with two outs, it's 1998, do you want Grace or Sosa to come up?  

Finally, roles are important.  A successfull team with have power, speed, BA, OBP, etc. but, not every player needs to possess all of those skills!  

So... In a nutshell, there is no magic bullet stat, and I would rather keep statistics separate (i.e. no OPS) and then interpret them as necessary.

by WGNstatic on Feb 25, 2006 2:10 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

While I understand your point...
I disagree with your interpretation of OPS as an end all statistic.  The goal of OPS is to take into account how often someone is on base plus the ability to be on 2nd or 3rd.  If you are asking me whether I would want a high OPS guy or a High OBP/Speed-ster I would say that depends on the situation...

Blanco at 2b could be better than Pierre at 1b... mainly because Pierre COULD get thrown out trying to steal second... and ruin the rally right there.

Also, OPS combines two valuable statistics...So if a player has a high OPS that should tell you he is more valuable...On the contrary it is MORE statistically analytical than just saying okay he has a good OBP but no stick... (Pierre/Podsednik) but that would still make for an average OPS.  The guys who have high OPS's will be guys who get on base and also slug.  Are they more valuable than the guys like Pierre and Podsednik???

Depends on the situation and how they are used... However are the top OPS guys usually very talented players.... Yes... they are... OPS is mainly a minor league statistic used to project MiL statistics into the Majors.   However I want my best hitter hitting 3rd ....OPS is a good measure for how good a hitter really is..

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 25, 2006 3:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Bleacher tickets available
for these 5 games, Wed, May 31st 7:05PM vs.CIN, Tue, June 27th 7:05PM vs.MIL, Wed, July 19th 7:05PM vs.HOU, Wed, Aug 23rd 7:05PM vs.PHI and Wed, Sept 13th 7:05PM vs.LA. There are probably others, but I just bought these at the Wrigley Field box office, around 1:15PM. There was no line, for tickets. If you're in the city, and looking for tickets, go now.

by holy mackerel on Feb 25, 2006 2:24 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

When you put in Hairston and Blanco...
here is the lineup:

Cedeno
Murton
Lee
Ramirez
Zambrano
Jones
Blanco
Hairston
Pierre

so...Zambrano in the middle of the lineup.  Any takers on whether it will happen?

by michigancubbie on Feb 25, 2006 7:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah...
I think it would so happen.  It's almost a given.  I mean Pierre sucks as a leadoff guy. He's not as proven in that spot as Ronny Cedeno. :P

In all seriousness, I think Dusty might bat Ronny second.  I would love to see Orange Guy be second.  I think he would do well there, but I won't complain if he's not.  I want him to become more of and RBI guy than a top of the order guy, but I will take whatever he's got.

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes.

by sparkles721 on Feb 25, 2006 8:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Please Please get rid of this
The 3rd picture on the top row, please get rid of it. You figure it out. Oh that flag is atrocious!
This is the year!

by VivaLosCubs on Feb 26, 2006 1:41 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Flag
Not only that, but notice that the wind is blowing from the south! What kind of subliminal message is the author sending?

by Wahkeenah on Feb 26, 2006 6:42 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Who knows...
but I don't want to know what it is either.
Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes.

by sparkles721 on Feb 26, 2006 5:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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