Bleacher Reconstruction & Ticket Sale Update - February 25, And Fun With Numbers
Before I tell you about David's latest set of photos, taken yesterday in and around the first day of ticket sales (he had a very good wristband number!), here's some more fun with numbers, and a good lesson in why number-crunching doesn't tell you everything about winning baseball.
Hat tip to both The Cub Reporter and my SB Nation colleague Larry at Viva El Birdos for pointing me to this fun little device, Steve's Lineup Toy. You can plug in numbers there from 2003 to 2005 to see how many runs a specific lineup would generate (at least in theory).
There's another version located here where you can use two different 2006 projections to come up with predicted runs scored totals for this year. Projections, of course, are just that, projections -- so I ran a number of different ones just for grins.
Using this actual 2005 lineup from June 29 vs. Milwaukee, a lineup most of us cringed when we saw it: Patterson, cf; Perez, ss; Lee, 1b, Burnitz, rf; Ramirez, 3b; Walker, 2b; Hollandsworth, lf; Barrett, c; Wood, p -- the toy says it would generate 5.0 runs per 27 outs. (I had to use another hitter in place of Wood since he wasn't listed, so I chose Greg Maddux).
The toy, of course, didn't make the lineup the way Dusty did; it ordered it Walker, Barrett, Lee, Ramirez, Burnitz, Perez, Hollandsworth, Patterson, Maddux.
Entering the proposed 2006 starters for Opening Day gives this "best" batting order: Cedeno, ss; Murton, lf; Lee, 1b; Ramirez, 3b; Barrett, c; Walker, 2b; Zambrano, p (!); Jones, rf; Pierre, cf
Sure, Z's a good hitter, but seventh? And that lineup generates 6.5 runs per 27 outs, pretty darn good and FAR better than last year's. Now, of course Z isn't going to bat seventh, and the toy doesn't let you put in your own lineup. Incidentally, replacing Cedeno with Miguel Tejada generates 6.7 runs per 27 outs, while still having Pierre bat ninth.
OK, what about putting these players into the 2006 projection toy? Problem 1: no pitchers are listed there, so you have to choose a "poor" hitter (TCR suggests Neifi, but I put in Jose Macias, who -- I presume -- would generate pitcherlike numbers, and does indeed get the #9 slot). That lineup reads: Pierre, cf; Murton, lf; Lee, 1b; Ramirez, 3b; Barrett, c; Jones, rf; Walker, 2b; Cedeno, ss; pitcher.
That lineup generates, by projection, 5.7 runs per 27 outs, still far higher than 2005's rotten lineups. Swapping Tejada for Cedeno raises it to 5.9. Actually, that above lineup wouldn't be a bad one at all.
Will Dusty use it? Ever? Doubt it. The lineup toy works in this way:
Anyway, fun little diversion on a Saturday.
Speaking of lineups, I learned from this Arizona Republic article that in spring training games, NL teams can use the DH in their home park if they get permission from the opposing team. The Reds did this last year with Ken Griffey, Jr., and the Giants are apparently going to do it with Barry Bonds. According to the article:
Also, I got mine over at Humbug for stealing his anagram idea the other day. Hey, I even admitted I stole it. All in good fun, right?
Finally, here's another photo update. The first few photos are of the ticket sale; the rest are updates of the construction. You'll actually be amazed at how much was done in just the 24 hours since I took pictures on Thursday. The timeline has also been updated.
Top: line at ticket windows; staging area for wristband winners before they go to the windows; more ticket windows (note White Sox flag on construction truck parked on Clark); more construction trucks and ticket buyers
Middle: crane loading equipment onto RF structure; brick wall on Sheffield; LF, with view of brick wall and back fence; closeup of wall in left-center (Waveland)
Bottom: CF restaurant under construction; closeup of Sheffield wall; wider view of Sheffield wall; this is where the wall will end and the new bleacher entrance will begin
Photos by David Sameshima
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The lineup Toy and I
Also you want to have your highest OPS guy hitting 3rd..for two reasons...One he has to have the ability to slug the ball and two he has to have the ability to get on if he does not slug the ball to make way for the cleanup hitter which is the guy with the highest SLG % on the team. .. Now that being said this is how the lineup SHOULD look IMO..
CF- Pierre .357 Career OBP 75% SB% over his career
LF- Murton- hit well last year has decent speed. can hit for a high obp/avg.. understands situations well. can HIT TO THE OPPPOSITE FIELD... If Pierre gets on steals second.. the 2 hitters job is to get him to 3rd... Murton is a good oppposite field hitter.
1b- Lee.... No duh...
3b- Ramirez.. When he is healthy anyway...
RF- Jones- A lot of people are down on Jones.. I am also guility of said downness... however he is a better option here than Barrett or anyone else the Cubs have... plus it gives you a lefty after a string of righties...
2b Walker/Hairston/Perez- The Three headed monster rawr. Scary huh? Only for us... Can we fuse Walker and Perez together and take Walker's bat and .300 AVG and Perez's above average D and range and make Todd Perez?
C- Michael Barrett/ Hank White- Hank has a lot of the pitchers wanting to throw to him... Maybe its because he calls a better game makes up for pitchers mistakes by having an above average arm... especially maddux...maddux does NOT hold the runners... i want to bounce my head off of a wall watching runners just gallop around the bases..
SS- Ronny Cedeno/Perez- Now I predict a platoon here.. Only because I do not know if Cedeno is for real or if he is a one trick pony. Lets hope its the former and NOT the latter. Cedeno and Perez can hit 8th... especially when Z or Wood are on teh mound...otherwise it might be a wise idea to flip the 7th and 8th hitters... because you want a guy who can get on in front of the pitcher so that the pitcher does not lead off the next innning.. so heres to you Mr. Ronny Cedeno..lets hope you are an Aerosmith rather than a Dexy's Midnight Runners
Pitcher spot...
by cubsfan2883 on Feb 25, 2006 11:55 AM CST 0 recs
lies, damn lies, and...
The new world of stats, most notably OPS and winshares, are certainly interesting, but, to me, they may do as much harm as good. In the "old days" a stat head would be forced to think about a large collection of stats, hits, rbi, walks, BA, steals, caught stealing, etc. Anyone who does statistical analyses for a living knows that stats can be very complicated and interpreted in a number of ways. Interpretation of statistics is a skill. My gripe with stats like OPS is that many folks use them INSTEAD of statistical analysis. Two examples:
1)Speed. OPS does nothing to take speed into account. Though it is common sense that with two outs in the 9th Pierre on 2nd is FAR more valuable than Henry Blanco (or Hank White for that matter) in the same position. Does speed on the bases improve the batters BA (distracted pitcher, holes opened as infielders shift)? Can this be taken into account? Clearly speed is grossly under represented in most new stats.
2) Power. Bottom of the 9th, 2 outs, down by a run. A is a triple really 80% as valuable as a HR? of course not! On the flip side, bases loaded, down by 2 with two outs, it's 1998, do you want Grace or Sosa to come up?
Finally, roles are important. A successfull team with have power, speed, BA, OBP, etc. but, not every player needs to possess all of those skills!
So... In a nutshell, there is no magic bullet stat, and I would rather keep statistics separate (i.e. no OPS) and then interpret them as necessary.
by WGNstatic on Feb 25, 2006 2:10 PM CST 0 recs
While I understand your point...
Blanco at 2b could be better than Pierre at 1b... mainly because Pierre COULD get thrown out trying to steal second... and ruin the rally right there.
Also, OPS combines two valuable statistics...So if a player has a high OPS that should tell you he is more valuable...On the contrary it is MORE statistically analytical than just saying okay he has a good OBP but no stick... (Pierre/Podsednik) but that would still make for an average OPS. The guys who have high OPS's will be guys who get on base and also slug. Are they more valuable than the guys like Pierre and Podsednik???
Depends on the situation and how they are used... However are the top OPS guys usually very talented players.... Yes... they are... OPS is mainly a minor league statistic used to project MiL statistics into the Majors. However I want my best hitter hitting 3rd ....OPS is a good measure for how good a hitter really is..
by cubsfan2883 on
Feb 25, 2006 3:09 PM CST
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Bleacher tickets available
by holy mackerel on Feb 25, 2006 2:24 PM CST 0 recs
When you put in Hairston and Blanco...
Cedeno
Murton
Lee
Ramirez
Zambrano
Jones
Blanco
Hairston
Pierre
so...Zambrano in the middle of the lineup. Any takers on whether it will happen?
by michigancubbie on Feb 25, 2006 7:44 PM CST 0 recs
Oh yeah...
In all seriousness, I think Dusty might bat Ronny second. I would love to see Orange Guy be second. I think he would do well there, but I won't complain if he's not. I want him to become more of and RBI guy than a top of the order guy, but I will take whatever he's got.
by sparkles721 on
Feb 25, 2006 8:15 PM CST
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Please Please get rid of this
by VivaLosCubs on Feb 26, 2006 1:41 AM CST 0 recs
Flag
by Wahkeenah on
Feb 26, 2006 6:42 AM CST
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Who knows...
by sparkles721 on
Feb 26, 2006 5:54 PM CST
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