Off
The Cubs have today off, their only off day of the month.
And not a moment too soon, after yesterday's 4-2 loss to the Mariners, and the other bad news yesterday, yet another medical examination for Mark Prior, this time on his shoulder.
Now. Is this good news? Hell no, it's not good news. It sucks. But is that cause to get all hysterical, accuse the Cubs of lying again, and claim that the sky is falling, neither Prior nor the Cubs will ever win another game again, and there won't be a chicken in every pot?
Sorry. But seriously. Yes, I know that the Cubs have had trouble keeping their pitchers healthy, and in the past, have had trouble being forthcoming about what's really going on. Here is what Jim Hendry said about the latest Prior news:
"It was very disheartening, [but I hope] it's just a little snag and he's back on his program at the end of the week. I can't tell you any more than the truth, and today was the first day he told Mark [O'Neal and pitching coach Larry Rothschild] he had a little discomfort. He wasn't in agony or anything like that, but we'd be foolish not to have Lew look at it."
I don't see any reason not to believe this. Seriously, if you want to go all sports-talk-radio, rant and rave, accuse the Cubs of lying again, go right ahead. But frankly, I don't see how that would make you a happier baseball or Cub fan, or happier person. It doesn't for me. Am I happy about this? No. Am I going to sugarcoat it? No. But I'm going to wait till Prior gets back from the medical exam and there is more news before I criticize.
There is one thing that has been said about Mark Prior that I will repeat, because if true it is worrisome. For all his natural abilities and physical talent, Prior has developed a reputation for not being mentally or physically tough enough. Most pitchers have pain almost constantly and they work out ways to pitch through it. Frankly, Prior sometimes seems like a bit of a baby.
Maybe this is something. Maybe it's nothing. As Hendry said, perceive it any way you want. But the truth is that right now, we simply do not know anything for certain.
One thing I do know -- there are way too many diaries on this topic. Just a reminder -- let's not let this turn into the Cubs website message board, deluged with dozens of threads on identical topics. If you see a diary on a topic you want to post about -- well, don't. Just post your thoughts under that diary. Thanks.
I'm more concerned about Derrek Lee, who bruised his shoulder in the WBC and is also headed to see Dr. Yocum. Of this, Hendry compared the problem to the minor injury that held Lee out of a few games last July and said:
Finally, I am off -- to Arizona. I'll be arriving tonight, and will be at tomorrow's game at Tempe, and Friday's at Scottsdale. Perhaps I'll run into some of you there. I'll be in Arizona for the rest of the spring season, hope to see many BCB'ers at various games.
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Sunday
On what do you base this?
Wait till all the facts are out.
Al...
by jolietconvict on Mar 15, 2006 10:27 AM CST up reply actions
I don't think....
Al is merely saying, "Let's wait and see what happens" -- I think he gets a little bored with all the doomsday "talk-radio" hyperbole that swirls around this site and the team.
by southerncubbie on Mar 15, 2006 12:22 PM CST up reply actions
Stone...
DmL
Pitching through it
by jimhickman on Mar 15, 2006 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
I'm right behind you
Expect rains on Sunday though. My parents tell me So Cal is getting a big storm on Saturday. AZ lags 1 day behind usually.
Yeah...
And -- I like doing this because I get to see other players than regulars -- I won't be at the Mesa game on Sunday. I'm going to the Cubs/A's split-squad game in Phoenix.
I don't know...
The key for winter storms in Phoenix is to watch San Diego. If SD gets rain, so do we. If LA gets rain, but not SD, most of the time it misses Phoenix.
by jazzman56 on Mar 15, 2006 3:01 PM CST up reply actions
al, stop
you're behaving like an abused spouse.
they are serial liars, they've been lying all along, they are lying right now and they're going to go on lying.
you don't know anything for certain. but, at some point, that becomes nothing more than a rationalization that allows you to ignore painful things which you clearly should know approximately.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 9:10 AM CST reply actions
Provide proof, please...
Proof. You accuse -- provide proof, please. I don't believe you have any, but if you do, I'll read it with interest.
Until then, I wait for further information.
i'm so tired of this.......
Al, i know you always look for the best, but this time i think it's the same ol, same ol from hendry and the cubs.
they have already got my money again this year, and i'm sure they will get it again next year.
i'm doomed to be a sufering cub fan.
next year will never be here, but i will.
i'm 40 yrs old and for as long as i can remember i've followed the flubs. and i always will.
so as usual, the cubs need a fix for 2006.
by wheatfield mike on Mar 15, 2006 10:40 AM CST up reply actions
I have an idea....
Personally, I hope Mark Prior is not going to be damaged goods, and further, how can Hendry and Baker be responsible this?
In my time observing the postings and diaries on this site, I would say that the emotional/negative commentary far outweighs the positive or objective criticism of the team--I guess it's natural for Cubs fans to fall prone to the "Chicken Little" syndrome.
Al, I don't know how you constantly keep the wolves at bay, but I suggest that if the Cubs are such a negative and fearful force for the fans who have already written the team off before the season begins--why waste your time? Go find another team / organization to believe in--
by southerncubbie on Mar 15, 2006 12:33 PM CST up reply actions
good point
by mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Mar 15, 2006 12:37 PM CST up reply actions
it's not the "something"...
I would definitely suggest that if:
1.) Everything about your country and government upsets you, you disagree with everything your country and government does, and you have nothing good to say about your country and government; yeah go ahead and move to Mexico--however, Canada probably offers more; including a professional baseball team that's pretty damn good.
AND if
2.) Everything about your wife and your marriage upsets you, and it's difficult for you to find positive attributes surrounding your marriage and your relationship, then yeah......definitely get a divorce....it's not worth it.
If you're a fan of the Cubs, why stick with the Cubs if the negative so clearly outweighs the positive, and if there's nothing to root for?
by southerncubbie on Mar 15, 2006 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
Mediation
Seriously, if the government is doing something people don't like, most people do piss and moan on blogs and do nothing resembling anything near proactive - so I see your point.
But you bring up another good point. After 9/11 Bush was slammed for not doing enough to prevent it, using any means necessary. But now he's in trouble again for taking it to the opposite extreme with wire tapping. He can't win. Neither can the Cubs management. They push their pitchers too hard, we complain. They treat them with great caution, we're irate! Let's not treat our favorite team like the red-headed stepchild we've made in the White House. Let's save our hot air for the political arena and keep it out of the friendly confines.
I haven't...
by jolietconvict on Mar 15, 2006 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
Semantics
Depends...
Since the whole concept of spring training for starting pitchers is to build up arm strength for the regualr season, logic would dictate that it was likely more reactionary than preventative.
(Just curious, are your initials really SHE? If so, that is very cool).
by jazzman56 on Mar 15, 2006 3:44 PM CST up reply actions
Yes
Thanks for noticing! People usually just think that I started a sentence about a female and just never finished it.
I think...
It's only fair.
by jazzman56 on Mar 15, 2006 5:05 PM CST up reply actions
I'm with you
It's not semantics.
by jolietconvict on Mar 15, 2006 5:00 PM CST up reply actions
With all due respect,
I think you're missing the point
by jolietconvict on Mar 16, 2006 8:51 AM CST up reply actions
you're talking about two different things
jc is talking about, after the use has injured them, how the cubs lie about it.
fwiw, it is not really feasible that they were being cautious ex nihilo. that kind of caution is known as "spring training", and is what they're doing with all their uninjured pitchers.
they treated prior differently because they believed he was hurt.
by gaius marius on Mar 16, 2006 10:04 AM CST up reply actions
Such optimism!
by dr johnson on Mar 16, 2006 9:41 AM CST up reply actions
Kearns
Maybe Mad Dog will barely snip Kearns' jersey and he'll throw down his bat and start sobbing on his way to 1st.
He's such a girl.
Are you in Cincy or just coming in for the game? Are you going to Opening Day? I'll be two rows back from Pierre on the 3rd, and on the 1st baseline for the 5th.
Just...
The Reds should have traded Kearns and Pena long ago for pitchers. They better hope those two have decent seasons so they can cash in.
by dr johnson on Mar 16, 2006 10:04 AM CST up reply actions
Fat chance
I'm just worried about that Lopez kid. He can be lethal.
If it wasn't for Dunn's K count, I'd be worried about him, too.
oooh,
Kingly Treasure
I yearn for a foul ball from the Marquis de Grissom.
by dr johnson on Mar 16, 2006 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
I can sell you
foul ball
Hey now, catching a foul ball is always cool. Especially when you're a girl, and you don't have a glove.
I'm jealous, really...
But you must admit, when you tell your grandchildren whose bat delivered you your foul ball, they may not be as impressed as you will hope them to be. :)
by dr johnson on Mar 16, 2006 12:48 PM CST up reply actions
neifi's not done playing
impressing the grandchildren is still possible.
or, she could just lie about who hit the ball.
by DSZ on Mar 16, 2006 12:55 PM CST up reply actions
I'm going to inject...
First of all, Hendry, Baker, Rothschild, et al are professional career baseball people. One has to ASSUME that they know what they are doing.
Oh, BTW, that applies to Steve Stone, too, who I happen to think is one of the most knowledgable guys around. These guys are in the business and their methods/opinions have validity, because that is what they do.
That doesn't mean that they can't agree to disagree or have varying opinions on correct courses of action.
And the bottom line is that pitchers get hurt. Especially starters that are power pitchers. You can do everything exactly right and still it happens. Always has and probably always will.
But, here's the controversial part...has anybody stopped to think that the preponderance of Blogs, Usenet, talk shows, and web sites, etc makes team officials even MORE cautious about what they say publicly? The way every word is scrutinized, analyzed and interpreted, it is no wonder everybody errs on the side of extreme caution in what they say to the media. And things that start out as "rumors" have a way of turning into fact very quickly these days.
I think it is obvious that the Cubs (and most everyone else in today's environment) parse their words so carefully, because they know that if they don't, people will jump all over what they say (and will do so anyway).
And if that means being something less than 100% forthcoming...well, I think it is somewhat understandable. That doesn't make them dishonest or liars...it just makes them careful, for good reason.
It will be interesting to see how they manage the news of what is the result of Yokum's examination of Prior's shoulder.
by jazzman56 on Mar 15, 2006 4:04 PM CST up reply actions
though i think
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 4:08 PM CST up reply actions
I suppose...
Suppose Rothschild had come out yesterday and said, "Gee, I don't know, Mark kept saying he was okay, but based on what I saw this is not good. It may be something serious." That would be honest, but not smart. The headlines in the Chicago papers today would be something like PRIOR'S CAREER IN JEOPARDY.
If you read between the lines of what he did say, it is something pretty close to that, but formulated in such a way that he doesn't speculate or overly emphasize what his professional sense is of the extent of the injury. That's not lying really...it is more a case of being responsible where a baseball career is involved.
You may disagree, but my feeling is that it is not a job requirement that team officials reveal everything they know or even suspect until it is to the point where they simply have no other choice. That is just the way of the world today.
by jazzman56 on Mar 15, 2006 4:22 PM CST up reply actions
A lie is a lie is a lie
Purposely being less than completely forthcoming about any situation almost always comes back to haunt an organization in the long run. It's a bad habit to get into. And, as the Cubs have discovered, it's the single biggest reason why no one believes them now even though, this time, it could well be the truth.
Remember - oh, what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.
But,
The theory that they can just not say anything really doesn't hold water. If they said nothing about Prior leaving ST camp and word got out that he had gone to see Yokum, the media would go ballistic and heads would roll.
There is a compromise here that is the proper approach that lies between saying everything and saying nothing.
by jazzman56 on Mar 15, 2006 4:37 PM CST up reply actions
Re
The problem the Cubs run into is the desire to control what they can't; that is, the reaction to news. That's why you have Hendry saying things like he knows some people are going to twist the situation in the media and him pleading that this is situation is completely out of the blue. What he should be doing is simply stating the facts and refusing to be drawn into either the defense or speculation trap. Even if his intentions are good, and they probably usually are, when he sets expectations he has no control over achieving, he's bound to take it on the chin when they are not met.
Furthermore, the Cubs have developed a reputation for using one condition to mask another. For instance, by insisting that Prior's workout schedule was solely the result of his respiratory problems in the offseason, they become perceived as being less than honest because the evidence, admittedly circumstantial, but convincing nonetheless, doesn't back them up.
Instead, they would be much better served by being forthright about Prior's overall physical condition - that he's not in shape to throw on a regular schedule generally, but at this time there's no specific reason as to why.
It's all the attempts at shifting focus to innocuous explanations that come back and bite the Cubs in the ass. They think they're being smooth and media savvy, when in fact, they're just killing what little credibility they have left. And once people stop believing what you say, you might as well not bother saying anything at all.
My overall point is the long-term affect of disembling and spinning. The Cubs have no one but themselves to blame for the reputation they've developed. Just think how different the reaction to this one situation would have been if they had a reputation for honesty instead.
exactly
this is the same effect one sees from most any corporate body -- government being particularly notorious, but business enterprises and churches no differently.
the managing of expectation all amounts to deception in the end, however well intentioned.
by gaius marius on Mar 16, 2006 10:18 AM CST up reply actions
Yes
The problem with the Cubs management is that they want to do spin control, but they aren't trained in that. These are baseball men.
So, it winds up being clumsy and ineffective. But, I don't think that the Cubs have a copyright on this problem. It exists in most baseball organizations.(Think about the way the Yankees, from media savvy NYC, handled that sign they wanted to put up apologizing to their Spring Training fans about the fact that they had some players in the WBC. Nice going, George).
In the NFL, where they have strict policies about how and when injuries are to be reported, most teams have developed ways to skirt the rules and not show their hand in terms of what players will be available for the upcoming game. It's a shame it has to be that way, but...
by jazzman56 on Mar 16, 2006 10:58 AM CST up reply actions
Why...
by jolietconvict on Mar 15, 2006 5:05 PM CST up reply actions
I think...
by cubfan4life on Mar 15, 2006 6:02 PM CST up reply actions
your country -- love it or leave it?
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
I'm not one of those...
When Hendry says that yesterday was the first time Prior had any discomfort all spring, that is being intellectually dishonest. If he had said that yesterday was the first time Prior had pain severe enough to warrant a trip to the west coast to see Dr. Yokum and probably have an MRI, then that would be easier to swallow.
Rotator cuff injuries, I don't care whether it is a strain, tendinitis, a tear or impingement, do not suddenly crop up overnight. You can bet the farm that Prior was experiencing some form of discomfort from the start and that is why they were babying him.
I really don't believe Cubs management is purposely putting out false information, but I do think they believe it is in their best interest to put the best possible face on any injury developments.
Make no mistake, a trip to see Dr. Yokum is not trivial.
While I'm at it, the theory that I have read on here that somehow Prior isn't tough enough or is a baby is just a lot of nonsense.
First of all, from a practial standpoint, pitching with any sort of rotator cuff injury is a sure way to make it worse. That would be being stupid, not tough.
Secondly, any elite athlete like Prior plays with pain and irratation all the time. To question the toughness or commitment of somebody, particularly a starting pitcher in the major leagues, is just ignorant. You don't even make it to the majors unless you are committed enough to play with pain.
I can only assume that anybody who would make such a comment has never had a rotator cuff injury, because believe me, it is not like a headache where you take an aspirin and it goes away.
by jazzman56 on Mar 15, 2006 2:32 PM CST up reply actions
So we should listen to you as the voice of reason-
Lying
If Hendry knew Prior was hurt, why wouldn't he (for his...Hendry's...own job security) have taken more action in the off season to improve the starting pitching? If I knew about it...like we all know about Woods injury...it would be a no-brainer to find solutions there instead of relief pitchers...I can't believe he would be that negligent.
Could it be that the Cubs are at fault for believing their players? Of course, they all sugarcoat things, but not letting your employer know that you might not be capable of performing your job is tempting to many people. Who wants to lose their job?
Who's really been lying?
Gaius, if you had to guess...
I'm hoping it's a case of Prior feeling some inflammation and it will go away, of course. I'm sure you're hoping that too. But what do you think will happen here?
my guess is just that
if reports about the pain being anterior are correct, then i would think rotator cuff, scope and wait for 2007.
if they aren't, then there's also a reasonable possibility of labrum damage -- meaning all bets are off.
by gaius marius on Mar 16, 2006 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
Well, all you can do is hope...
I completely agree.
same prom
by mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Mar 15, 2006 9:25 AM CST reply actions
Andrew
The fatalism and vitriol displayed by so many here is just alarming and ridiculous. Why follow the Cubs? Folks, if it causes you so much inner angst, just give it up!
by The Boar on Mar 15, 2006 9:39 AM CST reply actions
Whoops, sorry,
by The Boar on Mar 15, 2006 9:40 AM CST up reply actions
AMEN!
by southerncubbie on Mar 15, 2006 12:35 PM CST up reply actions
To brianp88 and, of course, Al.
And to those...
"Those Who Forget History Are Doomed to Repeat It"
DmL
there
we're on the outside looking in, and all we can do is try our best to interpret the situation with the little information we are given.
to act as though any of us knows anything with certainty is a little presumptuous, if you ask me. doesn't mean either side isn't right, but i think presenting an interpretation as fact is irresponsible.
agreed, but
i would agree wholly that if prior were going to the doctor ex nihilo, we would know just about nothing.
but it isn't ex nihilo. this comes in the context of a non-throwing throwing program that was pretty clearly an attempt to coddle an injury.
going to the doctor in the context of that throwing schedule raises the probability that this is something the cubs have known about for some time.
then take that raised probability in context of rumors -- will carroll or 1060west's newman or others -- that the cubs knew about a shoulder injury and were concerned. and the probability rises yet again.
then take that probability in the context of his laborious, uncharacteristic and inefficient outings in august and september of last year -- and the probability rises yet again.
clearly, i'm not issuing prophecy here. there's no "proof" in any of this.
but most of life is assessing situations without proof because certainty in most cases is simply impossible to attain. if you wait for certainty, you've almost always missed the boat.
what can be said, in lieu of certainty, is that the conditional probability that the cubs knew about prior's shoulder and lied about it to the public is very significant.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
I don't disagree
As I mentioned, several months ago, David Kaplan of WGN had talked to a scout who said that he felt that Mark Prior had an elbow injury. He said that the lack of control, which Prior once had, was a cause for concern. Control problems are often a sign of elbow damage and Prior saw his once tremendous command deteriorate. This has been echoed by some over the last year or two.
So what I'm getting at is that its not unacceptable for people to draw some conclusions, however preaching them like they are solid fact is not necessary. More importantly, though, is that the Cubs should be looking at these things and making alternative plans. It was wrong of them to sit back and have no other plans than going with Wood and Prior when one as coming off a surgery and there were signs of an injury in the other.
My bigger issue is the lack of action in terms of improving things. Again, the Cubs are on the brink of seeing two "once in a generation" arms go down the toilet. With each bump in the road that Prior and Wood encounter, there is no proactiveness in diagnosing and correcting the bigger problems.
DmL
i agree
there is not enough information available to us for us to state anything as fact.
and fwiw, the will carroll source could still be full of baloney. anyone could start a rumor that one of the cubs pitchers, especially wood or prior or guzman, was having elbow or shoulder problems, and have it eventually come true with some regularity. forgive me if i take someone who has such serious secondary gain for publishing inflammatory rumors with a grain of salt.
History
So well said.......
Cheers--
by southerncubbie on Mar 15, 2006 12:36 PM CST up reply actions
thats your choice
I challange them because I want them to get better. They likely do not hear me, but that does not mean that I should cease from doing what I think is necessary to make things better.
DmL
Street Cred
With that kind of optimism and blind idealism, you'd think you would make the perfect Cubs fan!
Please understand that with all of the negativity swirling about the place, I'm just concerned about losing our reputation as the best fans in the world! We are idiots, but we're proud idiots. :)
Although, I don't have a flag to wave. Perhaps with your connections in making things better, you could call Dusty himself and have him pick one up for me. Thanks!
My point...
DmL
Very true.
Interesting
Another, more appropriate, analogy might be: Two people are out walking in a driving rain storm. One has an umbrella while the other does not, is smiling, getting soaked and is shouting, "I'm waiting to see how much rain we're going to get before I buy an umbrella!"
Which one with the guys in white coats drag away?
To suggest that a fan with a negative attitude towards a team with 98 consecutive years of failure and a history of mistatements on the health status of key players is a member of the "great unwashed" is not only insulting, but it is also self serving.
Thank you
I find it insulting that we are deviding this into being positive and being negative camps, as if to insinuate that being critical is not a good thing. Perhaps it isn't a good thing for some people. I could easily say that one camp is being proactive in their thought, while others are simply being passive and, IMO, being passive is conterproductive.
Frankly, I wasn't sure if Sarah's claiming to be "an idiot" Cub fan was sarcastic or not. Clearly it wasn't. I'm not sure how anyone could take pride in being an idiot.
DmL
Being critical...
I happen to like being positive. Does that mean I can't see what's going on? Of course it doesn't. To continue the rain analogy -- do I want to sit around every day raining on someone else? No one wants to hear negative stuff all day long, every day.
There has to be a balance. I like to think I'm a bit closer to that than others.
there is a problem
that is a FAR cry from forcing a positivity into one part of your life that may not be warranted -- especially when you deny probable truths as a matter of course to do so.
to find the first is healthy. to force the second is not.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 2:57 PM CST up reply actions
sigh
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 2:59 PM CST up reply actions
I do not agree...
Al, with all due respect, you and others seem to think that some of the criticism that people aim at the Cubs is without basis. Whether you felt a week ago that Prior was or wasn't healthy, there was significant evidence to believe that SOMETHING was wrong. Whether or not you believe that the Cubs have been and are being honest in regards to injury, there is a significant body of evidence from the past three years that shows that this has not been the case.
DmL
AL
by jimhickman on Mar 15, 2006 3:23 PM CST up reply actions
Idiocy
As despair.com says, "Quitters never win, winners never quit, but those who never win and never quit are idiots."
Then again, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result, so I guess regardless of positive or negative attitudes, we are all fantastically insane idiots.
Wrigley keeps selling out, so there must be a lot of us!
you know what DML
Oftentimes critical people who challenge the norm are thought of as negative. The truly gifted communicators can cahllenge others to think critically without coming across as negative. It's hard to do in this type of forum.
I'd like to say I take some from each side. Some things I am very critical (Jim Hendry's way of building a 25 man roster for the season) and other's not so much (Cedeno's capabilities).
Well said.
Who'll Stop The Rain?
Darling, it was an analogy. And quite a good one at that, I must say. To be clear, in no way do I personally believe that someone with a negative attitude does not bathe nor do i think you will pass the asian bird flu, mad cow, or any other communicable disease on to me.
Allow me to offer this thought -- carrying an umbrella won't make it stop raining, it will just protect you from it. But if it's going to rain anyway, you might as well dance around in it. Swim around in the sweet misery. We Cubs fans wear it proudly.
If they lied, they lied. After all, everyone does do it. It sucks, but what can we do about it now? Really, what could we ever do about it? We can't stop it from raining. Let's deal with the issue at hand and hope for the best for our young ace.
I believe.
You have an excellent way with words
We can demand...
DmL
right there with you
by mike bornemann @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Mar 15, 2006 3:15 PM CST up reply actions
lol
What I'm casual with is my control over people telling the truth. My goodness, if I could stop the world from lying? Oh the difference I could make.
We have no control over these matters, as Al has delicately pointed out. If you'd really like to make a difference in the Cubs ethical practices OR your government's, get involved! Apply for a job at the Cubs. Write Jim Hendry a letter, camp out on the White House lawn - or Bud Selig's for that matter!
Additionally, isn't it the relinquishing of control that makes baseball so intriguing? How fun would it be if we knew what was going to happen? I mean, Pete Rose would be happy as a clam, sure. But it's the magic of baseball that keeps us coming back. It's supernatural luster that defies time and space - and pessimism - it's just lovely. Ahh, April 3rd can't come fast enough!
how about
simply refusing to give them several thousand dollars a year for the privilege of being lied to?
i disagree, sarah. frequent ticket buyers not only have some control -- they have all the control.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 3:33 PM CST up reply actions
not true
not anymore!
but i think you underestimate what can befall the cubs. no sports team is ever too far from where the cubs were in 1979. they're more than capable of going right back there with the "proper" management.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 3:47 PM CST up reply actions
I don't buy that
I see you have passed on my request to expose your real name. :-(
all of those things
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 4:11 PM CST up reply actions
it can
Nice try. I'm still not buying. Have anything more for me?
What the heck is your first name?
Here you go
by VS on Mar 15, 2006 7:28 PM CST up reply actions
No! :)
Maybe we should play the name game one day. Where you say your first name and the last name of a baseball player that has the same first letter as your first name.
I would say Miriam Murton. LOL.
by sparkles721 on Mar 15, 2006 10:23 PM CST up reply actions
and .
by priorpwnz on Mar 16, 2006 12:53 AM CST up reply actions
I just wanted to see...
Re: Prior, I'm shocked. I had no idea that he might hurt. This came out of nowhere. There were no warning signs. I'm sure the cubs were shocked also.
It's one thing to be optimistic.
It's another thing to be gullible.
I HOPE Prior recovers quickly and that this isn't major.
But I didn't believe it when Dusty said, "there's absolutely nothing wrong with him. Nothing."
Please.
The cubs may have legitimate reasons for being so secretive about the health of their pitchers, but personally, I doubt that these reasons are worth sacrificing so much credibility.
In any event...
We are upset that Prior is going to start the season on the DL (again). HOw long did they know?
Does it matter?
I wasn't suprised.
No matter how or when the news is revealed and/or spun, the most troubling problem is that Prior isn't healthy.
Yes, I'm annoyed with how misleading the Cubs have been. But of they were more upfront, it wouldn't change the fact that this sucks.
by dan the fan on Mar 16, 2006 4:27 PM CST up reply actions
Oh I will...
If you played the name game, you could say Chris Carpenter or Chris Clemens! :)
far from absurd
i think you're projecting recent past into extended future. what's become of the cubs has much to do with the economic improvement of the country since the inflationary period of 1968-81. reverse that growth for some period -- which is less a probability than an eventual certainty -- and not only the cubs but a lot of spectator sport would regress significantly.
the 1981 cubs then were long known for bleacher bums and a national following -- and it counted for little. that waiting list can vanish remarkably quickly.
by gaius marius on Mar 16, 2006 10:28 AM CST up reply actions
today's sports world is far removed from 1979
the stature one gains today from season tickets along with the virtual guarantee that one can sell all of their tickets for face value, and if they are so inclined, substantially more than face value, makes it a no-risk, high reward proposition to hold onto season tickets.
by DSZ on Mar 15, 2006 7:09 PM CST up reply actions
that is true
but the cubs situation is far from invincible as a result of that.
by gaius marius on Mar 16, 2006 10:32 AM CST up reply actions
Huh?
So, by your rationale, if you're in the family friendly section that gives you rights over what, lead off hitter? And sitting near the dugout lets you boss the batboy around? Buying a ticket doesn't give you equal share in the ins and outs of the Cubs organization any more than buying a movie ticket lets you pick the ending of the film.
If you'd like to give up your tickets, I'd gladly take them off your hands.
And also, if you have any extra to Brokeback... haven't seen it yet. I'm so out of the loop...
But...
He won this time. But I'll get him...oh I'll get him...
by dr johnson on Mar 15, 2006 3:36 PM CST up reply actions
in this group
personally, i don't mind getting wet sometimes.
You know someone here is now
agreed
this is ironically the one time in the year when i usually get optimistic -- what's done is done, what they failed to do they failed to do, and now they just have to go out and make the best of the sorry cards they dealt themselves.
but, in a few weeks, they'll remind me that their gross incompetence isn't limited to the offseasons -- and i'll be back to finding happiness in the parts of my life where it can actually be found.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 3:37 PM CST up reply actions
Don't forget Dusty
Credibility issues more than others
Prior being hurt does not surprise me, the extent is another. I can be very cynical on him and not the Cubs in that he chose to negate his contract for a few more bucks, supposedly taking a risk but in reality the Cubs would not pass on him because of his potential.
Reality is pitchers get hurt often. Those who don't are the rarest.
So here is the bottomline, no wonder Hendry kept acquiring more (Simontacchi was a sign, as was Miller while signing Rusch et cetera.)
The trouble with this is it will make the Cubs bullpen a 7 man crew unless the Cubs keep option type players on the bench and in the bullpen.
If he is hurt, then get him fixed.
Tejada
Perhaps
DmL
Tejada
I've heard both
DmL
doubt it
It depends
DmL
it happened
OK
DmL
Hey Al,
by Smooth Jazz Man San Diego on Mar 15, 2006 11:56 AM CST reply actions
Offseason Training
Do these two even work out in the offseason? Knowing that Cubs management tries to treat these two like the goose that laid the golden egg by flying them out to see a specialist in L.A. every time they have a headache or a paper cut, is it possible that at the end of every year they tell them to just go home and not touch a ball until February? Whatever these two do in the offseason needs to change 180 degrees, because it simply is not working.
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I really feel the hangover from the end of '03 affected each's preparation for the upcoming season. They were out of shape for ST '04 and haven't recovered since. They were out of shape and pushed it too hard too fast because we were "the team" so aptly jixed by SI.
we disagree, socal, as you know
pitchers have been long coming into spring without having thrown a ball all offseason -- year-round training is new to baseball. it never resulted in these kinds of breakdowns systemically. spring training was designed to avoid it, in fact.
but 130- and 140-pitch counts are also new to baseball largely, in an era when the strikeout and the wasted pitch has become epidemic. it was hard for pitchers like drysdale and spahn to get anywhere near 130 pitches in nine innings. but in strikeout-ball, a guy can pile that up in seven innings.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 1:14 PM CST up reply actions
yes we do
There isn't one study that can difinitvely point to "# of pitches = injured arms." You can try to make that connection, but there's no fact to it.
For every guy you want to point to, I can submit another who did more and had no arm troubles.
Look at Maddux and Z as two entirely different pitchers in terms of economy, yet they are out there every 5th day.
of course not
what is known is that there is a statistical correlation between high-count outings and diminished performance and injury. is it a = b? no. but neither is it statistically insignificant.
and it does definitely fit the trend of the game -- with pitchers in the age of the strikeout throwing so many more pitches per inning than ever before, despite ever-improving medical understanding, disabled list time has increased dramatically.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 1:29 PM CST up reply actions
and with z
maddux, for his part, has arguably avoided injury by becoming a pitcher that throws a complete game on 88 pitches -- as was once much more common.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 1:30 PM CST up reply actions
it's uncomfortable
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 1:47 PM CST up reply actions
i'd say
by DSZ on Mar 15, 2006 6:59 PM CST up reply actions
it's his opinion
Should Phil have taken out MJ for Craig Hodges late in games because he was worried about the amount of minutes MJ had accumulated? I'd say hell no.
mj wasn't a repetitive-stress injury candidate
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
really?
Obviously sarcastic in tone.
lol
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 2:24 PM CST up reply actions
you know I was kidding
there's no magic number, i agree
but a far better proxy than a manager caught up in the moment and afraid of his bullpen. :)
fwiw, i think dusty was all too willing to push his two young starters past their command breakdown points. i watched game 6 from left field, and i could see in the 7th that prior was leaving everything up and losing it. still, dusty didn't even get anyone up in the pen. he had made up his mind that it was prior or nothing. it ended up being nothing -- but that wasn't the first time that year he did so. he gambled with wood and prior frequently that autumn and won.
all that gambling seems to have ended up indebting the cubs in a way baker clearly hadn't fully appreciated.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 3:07 PM CST up reply actions
Re
And - and this is an important and - there's little to no confidence in the bullpen.
After all, if the issue is merely pitching with a lead, then there's no way of explaining Roger's observation about the Sox starters last year only combining for 5 outings above 120 pitches, the longest being 123. And that was in AL.
Just because pitch counts and pitcher abuse points are relatively new to the game doesn't mean people shouldn't learn from what they're trying to communicate. I would guess that OG has paid attention. We'll see what happens to the WS rotation as the season unfolds.
BTW - if experience had led to a general understanding that playing Jordan beyond X minutes a game could lead to a serious injury, and the only alternative on the bench for Phil Jackson was Hodges, that would be the fault of Jerry Krause for putting Jackson between such a rock and a hard place. NBA Strat-O-Matic has such playing time limitations, and it can be quite a challenge putting a competent lineup on the floor because of them. Fortunately, Jordan's was, IIRC, usually 2.
Looking back at the 2003 pitching staff, it's easy to see why Baker, never one known to manage a staff well to begin with, would ride his lead horses until they dropped. That's on Hendry.
you make some good points
I will answer the correlation to the Sox staff from Roger's article, that not one pitcher on the Sox staff is a comparable pitcher to Wood or Prior. The Sox pitchers are a sinker, splitter and change-up bunch whereas Wood and Prior and POWER pitchers. Pitch counts with Sox type of pitchers are generally lower. A better comp for the Sox staff would be Maddux. If Rogers wants to comp Prior and Wood, he ought to look at Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. Rogers drawing conclusions from different types of pitchers using 1 obscure and unsubstantiated metric is assinine.
As for the Jordan point, you are right. I agree 100%. The problem I was pointing out is the "X". In baseball it's become convenient to say 100 pitches is the number. It's so arbitrary and no basis in fact.
pitch counts
Also in regard to your repeated claims that Prior and Wood came down hurt due to Baker's pushing them too hard in 2003 - why is it that Zambrano and Maddux can come back year after year without these type of injuries, when they've been "pushed" just as hard? Bill James wrote an interesting essay last year in which he concluded that based on all the data he's seen, there is no relationship between high pitch counts and pitcher injuries.
the logic of pitch counts
it's to keep a pitcher from becoming fatigued in any one start -- because, the logic goes, fatigue leads to mechanical breakdowns, which lead to injuries.
why is it that Zambrano and Maddux can come back year after year without these type of injuries
maddux because he has never thrown many pitches. baseball's only been keeping "pitches thrown" since 1999, but maddux always throws under 14 an inning, sometimes fewer than 13, over a season. that's how to stay healthy. prior, on the other hand, averages 16.8 -- something like 25% more pitches per inning.
zambrano, for his part, has only been pitching the full slate in the majors for three years. he might be a livan hernandez -- a constructional freak with a rubber arm. but he probably isn't. if he keeps getting used the way he has been, i'd bet you it won't be long before "internet elbow" becomes surgery.
Bill James wrote an interesting essay last year in which he concluded that based on all the data he's seen, there is no relationship between high pitch counts and pitcher injuries.
i think he's wrong.
james' view is summed here as well as it can be.
but only one part of this counterargument seems at all relevant to me -- and that is the bit about pitches per game.
and, wadr to tangotiger, estimating pitch counts in games without actual counts is a hazardous affair. his theoretical model is forced to make assumptions that are not necessarily valid across all times, despite his claim.
moreover, i can look at retrosheet for time of game -- a stat with long records -- and see that the times of game have been rising steadily for a while now. that means more pitches are being thrown.
by gaius marius on Mar 16, 2006 12:56 PM CST up reply actions
quite the leap with absolutely no evidence
- inreased use of pitching changes
- increase in commercials
- increase in batters stepping out of the box between every pitch
- increase in pitchers walking around the mound in between pitches
- increase in cracked bats, necessitating a trip to the dugout and a stop at the circle for pine tar on the way back to the plate
- increase in offense, meaning more batters
by DSZ on Mar 16, 2006 4:46 PM CST up reply actions
certainly
and i'd note that #6 -- also a certifiable, measurable trend -- means more pitches thrown.
a more substantive critique
is something i can work on, but note that his approximator is purely empirical and drawn from modern-day data -- that is, he correlated.
there is no reason those correlatives must hold for all times, and he postulates none.
by gaius marius on Mar 16, 2006 6:26 PM CST up reply actions
so your assumption
And that's the reason for your belief in pitch counts? That's borderline insignificant statisical analysis. % doesn't mean squat from a small base. You give me a penny and you get another penny in return is a nice 100% ROI, but it's still only 1 penny.
Again, that is why I say there is no correlation between # of pitches = arm injuries. And there is no factual data that says I'm wrong either.
no it isn't
by gaius marius on Mar 16, 2006 6:08 PM CST up reply actions
uhhh what?
If I agree with your facts (pitches per inning) it is statistically insignificant when you are talking about 1 pitcher per batter difference. That is nothing.
i really think
i just think calling prior lazy in so many words has almost no evidenciary merit. it takes a lot of effort to get to be a major-league pitcher.
it seems more likely to me that the cubs knew his shoulder was hurting last year, and hoped that six months of complete rest would heal it. it's a very common way to attack shoulder problems initially. clearly, if that's what happened, it didn't work.
by gaius marius on Mar 15, 2006 1:08 PM CST up reply actions
Wow.
by drone1047 @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Mar 15, 2006 3:33 PM CST reply actions
An interesting side note...
This has to raise the suspicion level. Did they not want the media to report on his lack of velocity? Control? Prior's discomfort?
by cubfan4life on Mar 15, 2006 7:20 PM CST reply actions
this is common
HEY AL,
by FukudomeAtLarge on Mar 16, 2006 6:48 AM CST reply actions
Hey, thanks!
Stats analysis
Yeah, that is a lot of work...
If there's anyone here who likes doing this sort of thing, I'd encourage you to do it and post a diary on it.

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