2006 Major League Baseball Predictions

by Al on Apr 2, 2006 7:38 AM CST in News Comment 33 comments

Here's what all of us as baseball fans have been waiting for: the regular season! It all begins tonight, with the White Sox facing the Indians on ESPN2, at 7 pm CT.

With that, it is time for me to join all the thousands of other bloggers, websites, pundits, etc. in making my so-called "expert" predictions for the upcoming season.

If you were here a year ago, you'll find this prediction format familiar. For those of you new to BCB, I started this format a few years back, because I found it both more interesting and challenging to do than traditional predictions. But more than that, if you're here I don't need to insult your intelligence by telling you who the ballclubs' best hitters, pitchers, etc. are. You already know. Instead, you'll find a pithy word or phrase describing the hitting, pitching, defense and intangibles of the thirty contenders for October glory.

I'm also not going to "predict" award winners. How hard is it for me to sit here clacking away on a keyboard and be master-of-the-obvious by telling you that Albert Pujols is the best player in the NL and Vladimir Guerrero in the AL? And besides, awards often come out of nowhere. A year ago, who'd have thought Chris Carpenter would have been the best pitcher in the NL in 2005? Or that Chad Cordero would lead the league in saves? Nobody, that's who.

And in any case, anyone using the search function here can come back here in October and tell me how wrong I was.

With that, onward:

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

1) ATLANTA BRAVES
Hitting: Renewed
Pitching: Hold on to your seats!
Defense: Adequate
Intangibles: Bobby Cox

2) NEW YORK METS
Hitting: Powerful
Pitching: Expensive
Defense: Do not try this at home!
Intangibles: Always trying to catch up to the Yankees

3) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Hitting: Readjusted
Pitching: Nothing to write home about
Defense: Jimmy Rollins. Slick!
Intangibles: None. That's why they're third

4) WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Hitting: Strikeout-prone
Pitching: Did I mention Chad Cordero?
Defense: Shaky
Intangibles: Someday, they'll get real ownership

5) FLORIDA MARLINS
Hitting: Young
Pitching: Younger
Defense: Does it matter?
Intangibles: Players don't feel pressure because the crowds are smaller than the ones they had in the minors

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL

1) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Hitting: Held together with spit & glue
Pitching: Won it for them last year
Defense: Strong
Intangibles: Spiffy new stadium

2) CHICAGO CUBS (Wild card)
Hitting: Better (how could it have been worse?)
Pitching: Injured
Defense: It depends
Intangibles: Spiffy new bleachers

3) MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Hitting: On the rise
Pitching: Underrated
Defense: Very good
Intangibles: Um... the secret stadium sauce is good...

4) HOUSTON ASTROS
Hitting: Old (still)
Pitching: Older (still)
Defense: Oldest (still)
Intangibles: If they get Clemens back, all bets are off

5) CINCINNATI REDS
Hitting: Lots of home runs! Fun!
Pitching: Who needs pitching?
Defense: Is Griffey hurt again? No? Well, he still might be...
Intangibles: Couldn't think of any last year, and still can't

6) PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Hitting: A wish and a prayer
Pitching: Young and improving
Defense: Average
Intangibles: The best skyline view in baseball

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

1) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Hitting: Oh, I could say lots here, but I won't
Pitching: Young
Defense: Old
Intangibles: Oh, I could say lots here, but I won't

2) LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Hitting: Mixed bag
Pitching: Not like it used to be in the storied Dodger past
Defense: Old
Intangibles: Had better win now or else

3) SAN DIEGO PADRES
Hitting: Better (but only because they brought the fences in)
Pitching: Nonexistent
Defense: Better (but only because they brought the fences in)
Intangibles: Could win this weak division

4) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Hitting: Improved
Pitching: Non-improved
Defense: Poor
Intangibles: If they start winning, very rabid fanbase

5) COLORADO ROCKIES
Hitting: Young
Pitching: In THAT ballpark? WAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Defense: Does it matter?
Intangibles: Lovely view of the Rocky Mountains beyond LF

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST

1) NEW YORK YANKEES
Hitting: Solid
Pitching: Question marks
Defense: Enough
Intangibles: Don't you just HATE them?

2) TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Hitting: New
Pitching: Expensive
Defense: Fast
Intangibles: Hungry to win

3) BOSTON RED SOX
Hitting: Not enough
Pitching: Not nearly enough
Defense: Good
Intangibles: Look at that lineup. You think intangibles will help?

4) TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS
Hitting: Exciting
Pitching: Exciting, in a different sort of way
Defense: Speedy
Intangibles: Let's go to the game! Free parking!

5) BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Hitting: Two words: Corey Patterson
Pitching: Too young
Defense: Acceptable
Intangibles: Two words: Corey Patterson

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL

1) CLEVELAND INDIANS
Hitting: Underrated
Pitching: VERY underrated
Defense: Excellent
Intangibles: Got a taste of it last year

2) CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Hitting: Very good
Pitching: Outstanding
Defense: Decent
Intangibles: Will have to replicate every ounce of their luck and karma from last year. This race will be VERY close.

3) MINNESOTA TWINS
Hitting: Tony Batista? Are you KIDDING me?
Pitching: Excellent
Defense: Wonderful
Intangibles: Third place here could be 90 wins

4) DETROIT TIGERS
Hitting: Erratic
Pitching: Very young
Defense: Good
Intangibles: Watch out for the clouds of smoke from the manager's seat in the dugout

5) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Hitting: Better than it was
Pitching: Awful
Defense: Mediocre
Intangibles: It's got to be frustrating to be a Royals fan with no hope whatsoever

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

1) OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Hitting: Solid
Pitching: Steady supply of great arms
Defense: Outstanding
Intangibles: Great GM and manager

2) LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF SOMEWHERE (Wild card)
Hitting: Old
Pitching: Mixed
Defense: Slow
Intangibles: Know how to win

3) TEXAS RANGERS
Hitting: Lots of home runs! Fun!
Pitching: John Koronka? Nuff said.
Defense: Who needs defense?
Intangibles: Anonymous, could fly under radar

4) SEATTLE MARINERS
Hitting: Turning Japanese
Pitching: Felix Hernandez, two months old when teammate Jamie Moyer made ML debut
Defense: Acceptable
Intangibles: Tough division. Could finish .500 and still be last.

NL: Cubs over Giants, Braves over Cardinals; Braves over Cubs in NLCS

AL: A's over Indians, Yankees over Angels; A's over Yankees in ALCS

World Series: A's over Braves

I'm sure someone will remind me when I get absolutely none of this right, six months from now. Later today, another bleacher reconstruction update.

Also, I have been remiss: at last, the SB Nation baseball blog set is complete with the addition of our Dodgers site, True Blue LA. The guys at the the Padres site have released their Dodger angst, but from 2000 miles from LA here in Chicago, I simply say, "Welcome!"

Finally, for you stat geeks out there, the SB Nation statistical analysis site Beyond the Box Score has an excellent statistical analysis of Cubs position players today. I confess a lot of these numbers make my eyes glaze over, but if you're into this sort of thing, check it out.

0 recs | Comment 33 comments

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Comments

Thank god, no more black and white

Good job on the predictions, I agree with just about all of em' except, unless Wood and Prior return by early May at the latest and pitch effectively, I don't see how the Cubs will able to hold off the Brewers for second place.

SD Pitching: Nonexistent

For the most part true, but they do have Peavy! I have no interest in the Padres as a whole, but I've started to develop a (totally healthy) man-crush on Peavy. I'm definitely looking forward to seeing him pitch this season.

Finally, for you stat geeks out there, the SB Nation statistical analysis site Beyond the Box Score has an excellent statistical analysis of Cubs position players today.

This part almost made me weep.

Juan Pierre .297/.348/.361; -7.71 pNRAA; -11.80 pNRAA/GP
Luis Matos .280/.340/.373; +9.61 pNRAA; +11.63 pNRAA/GP

Dewan has him rated as one of the better centerfielders in the game, coming in at 6th over the 2003-2005 seasons in the plus/minus rating system. Pierre is 16th, although he was 28th overall in 2005.

"You're born with two strikes against you, so don't take a third one on your own." - Connie Mack

by VS on Apr 2, 2006 7:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

i'm not sure

I follow:

NL: Cubs over Giants, Braves over Cardinals; Braves over Cardinals in NLCS

Clarify?

2006 -- AC036097 -- Eamus Catuli!

by priorpwnz on Apr 2, 2006 8:01 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

ditto

for me. perhaps braves over cubs for nlcs?

by dc60123 on Apr 2, 2006 9:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoops!

That's what I meant. I'll fix it.

by Al on Apr 2, 2006 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

For what it's worth

Chris Carpenter wasn't the best pitcher in the NL last year, Roger Clemens was.

AC036198

by gjdow on Apr 2, 2006 8:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You could make a case for

Willis being better than Carpenter last year too.

Willis: 236 in, 7 CG, 5 SHO, 170 SO, 2.63 ERA, 153 ERA+, 1.13 WHIP

Carpenter: 241 in, 7 CG, 4 SHO, 213 SO, 2.83 ERA, 151 ERA+, 1.05 WHIP

It was very close.

"You're born with two strikes against you, so don't take a third one on your own." - Connie Mack

by VS on Apr 2, 2006 8:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but Clemens....

I mean, look at that season. Just, wow.

AC036198

by gjdow on Apr 2, 2006 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, definitely

I'm not arguing that Clemens didn't deserve the Cy Young, I'm just saying that the actual Cy Young winner was perhaps only the third best pitcher in the league. It only proves how bogus these awards are.

"You're born with two strikes against you, so don't take a third one on your own." - Connie Mack

by VS on Apr 2, 2006 8:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Love the Cubs

But unfortunantely all the years of terribly ran and terribly played teams, has kicked all the false optimism right outta me. Not sure how you all of you can do it, honestly. I still will root for the Cubs but just like last year, I'm not pleased with the off-season moves. Can the Cubs win the Division? Absolutely. But everything must turn out right, like Wood coming back in May and pitching healthy and ditto for Prior. Sad to say, but this year's team really does hinge on those 2. Or if only one can stay healthy, good years out of Marshall and Miller and maybe an unknown factor to be added later. I am tired of Rusch and wish he'd go away. I'm sticking with my original feelings a couple months ago about a rotation with Rusch and Maddux in it, isn't one that will win over 83 games.

Any team with Jones hitting 5th is a team who's chances to win the pennant, I don't like. Aram needs someone better than Jones behind him to protect him so he can see some pitches and have that GREAT year I'm expecting out of him. That's why I personally would hit Lee 4th. Sounds crazy I know to protect ARam with a guy who hit .335 and it should be vice versa, but while I don't think Lee will have a bad year, no way he duplicates last year, his career year. I believe by June, most pitchers will rather face Lee than ARam. While I'm on the subject, here's what my lineup would look like:

1 Pierre
2 Murton (should get plenty of pitches to hit)
3 Ramirez
4 Lee
5 Walker (an upgrade over Jones)
6 Barett
7 Jones
8 Cedeno

I'm sure most of you will think this is a negative post, but I don't think it is. They really do need some good things to happen to them and maybe a move or 2 and it's possible. That's where my hope lies, that if everyone can stay healthy, I think they can win the Division and absolutely compete. After the last couple seasons though.....hm.

Anyway that's my opinion and if it's not rosy enough for your site Al, feel free to delete it.

by escapegoat on Apr 2, 2006 9:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Predictions

NL Central

Astros
Cubs
Cardinals
Brewers
Reds
PIrates

NL East

Mets
Braves (Wild Card)
Phillies
Nationals
Marlins

NL West

Dodgers
Padres
Giants
Dbacks

AL Central

Indians
WSox
Twins
Tigers
Royals

AL East

Yankees
Blue Jays
Red Sox
Orioles
DEvil Rays

AL West

Angels
A's
Rangers
Mariners

by escapegoat on Apr 2, 2006 9:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

murton

is probably too slow (and i do mean glacial) to hit second. more likely to hit in the lower half.

that clears the way for whomever is playing second or short. would not be surprised to see walker, jhj, cedeno and neifi all get significant chances there.

by gaius marius on Apr 3, 2006 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

The issue...

... with Neifi batting 2nd, is this: if he is the one starting at 2B (and he will, just not as much as some think, he will occasionally), Dusty is not likely to readjust the rest of the order.

Having Hairston or Walker bat 2nd is fine. Having Cedeno or Neifi batting 2nd is not.

On those days, I might even bat Barrett second. But Dusty won't.

by Al on Apr 3, 2006 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i would argue

that the brewers have below average defense.

by tomas21 on Apr 2, 2006 9:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I would agree

n/t

by escapegoat on Apr 2, 2006 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoo Opening day!

My look forward to:
1. 8 new players
2. Good lead-off guy
3. Low expectations(less pressure..)
4. Upgrade in bullpen,(to be seen)
5. D-lee.. D-lee
6. Big Z
7. Murton(redhead kid w/promise)
Don't look foward to:
1. prior/wood(simulated games,towel drills)
2. Big Z's tantrums
3. Our rotation until about May
I see more good than bad this year and at least we have some new blood. Here's to a great season Cubs fans!

by NorthernLights1972 on Apr 2, 2006 10:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

In Willie Smith's memory

Here's to hoping the Cubbies have a dramatic opening day win that sets the stage for a season as exciting as 1969(with better end results). Its the day before the first game and I see no reason this team can not clinch the division by labor day. Play ball!!!!!!!!!!!

by jimhickman on Apr 2, 2006 10:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

DOn't you just HATE the Yankees

About that comment. I used to, but not anymore. I've grown to like the way they are always contending and can basically say I am a Yankee supporter as far as having an AL team. Never thought it would happen, but years of frustration have led me down this path. Also, last years run by the Sox made me realize I will never dislike any team as much as them.

It doesn't even feel dirty, kinda feels good. Like a winner. If the Cubs aren't going to win it, here's to the Yankees in '06.

by Slaky311 on Apr 2, 2006 10:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't like the Giants...

they are just too old, but at least they have Noah Lowry.

If the Braves make it to the World Series, I will be very surprised. I would say they aren't winning the division, but I'm not sure there's a better team there.

Many people are picking the A's for the World Series. If they can stay healthy, they will be an excellent team.

One day! Woohoo!!!!

Cubbie Blue always sPaRkLes in my eyes.

by sparkles721 on Apr 2, 2006 12:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Go A's...and Cubs

Living in the Bay Area, I've become an A's fan over the years. I'd pull for the Giants, but I've always disliked Barry, and now we have so many more good reasons to.

But...the problem with the A's has been playoff success. Last year they would have been in the playoffs if they hadn't had a string of unlikely injuries late in the year. If they stay healthy, they'll be in it come October. However, that's when youth tends to set in for them. Nobody on the team has playoff experience, and it tends to show that time of year when the pressure is really on. Hopefully they can get over that hump, since it is such a likeable group (for example, 2nd year A Nick Swisher...when he goes with the team to visit children's hospitals, he takes a bunch of baseballs and has the kids sign autographs for him...that's pretty cool, IMHO).

Here's to hoping the Cubs do better too. I'm just not optimistic. The hitting has to get better, but the pitching has a lot of question marks. If the plate discipline doesn't improve, pitching won't matter.

by SiValleyCubFan on Apr 2, 2006 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Al

not sure what just happened. I saw a new diary with pics and then couldn't view them, and then it said couldn't find story when I went to post, and now it just disappeared. You know, April Fools is over Al...not funny! Seriously though, am I going crazy?

Anyone can have a bad century...

by Kinky Reggae on Apr 2, 2006 12:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

No, you're not going crazy...

... I am working on a new pic post. I hit "submit story", but meant to click "Hide Entry", because I'm not finished yet.

There, now you know a little BCB secret. It'll be up in a few minutes.

by Al on Apr 2, 2006 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whew!

Thought I was losing my mind! Looked good though Al. I feel so privelaged though, I gues you caould call me the BCB editor of the day. Everything looks great Al...print it! Just kiddin, lookin forward to it though. And thinking about the timing of this event, I hit refresh at the exact right second to catch that sneak peek!

Anyone can have a bad century...

by Kinky Reggae on Apr 2, 2006 12:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

2006 Cubs

I haven't done MLB predictions for a few years and probably won't this year. I am having difficulty forcasting this Cubs team. If Wood and Prior come back and start more than 50 games, this team could win in the mid-90's. If not, the offense is so mediocre that I cannot see the team overcoming the loss.

There are, however several young pitchers in Hill, Guzman and Marshall who we have no idea what they're going to provide. Further Jerome Williams is young and has shown significant promise during his career. The thing is that we could see any of the following pitchers having started a significant number of games: Zambrano, Maddux, Prior, Wood, Rusch, Williams, Marshall, Hill, Guzman, Miller, Brownlie, Ryu. None of us should be shocked if any of those pitchers started upwards of 20 games for the Cubs. I guess the positive is that usually, when you need to go to starter #6, 7 or 8, you end up with the 36 year-old mediocre pitcher like Darren Oliver or Brian Boehringer.

The hitting worries me. The Cubs are a right handed dominant line-up and I think they'll continue to have problems with right handed off-speed pitchers. To make matters worse, it looks like Dusty is going to bat two of the three starting LH positions players 1-2 in Pierre and Walker. I'd prefer to see Murton bat second, and either Walker or Jones fifth, with the other batting seventh. If I had to make the Cubs line-up today, it would be:

Pierre - CF (L)
Murton - LF (R)
Lee - 1B (R)
Ramirez - 3B (R)
Walker - 2B (L)
Barrett - C (R)
Jones - RF (L)
Cedeno - SS (R)

Further, I think Dusty is setting up the bottom of the line-up up for failure batting Murton 7th and Cedeno 8th. There is still a lot of unknowns, however. We do not know what Cedeno will provide. Murton, if he has the eye at the plate that we've seen, could be a great part of the line-up (but totally wasted in the 7 spot). Will Lee do what he did last year? Will Aramis stay healthy, and if so, will he put up the predigious numbers he's shown he's capable of? If Pierre has a repeat of 2005, Jim Hendry is going to look like an idiot. I just think that there is not a lot of hitting balance in the line-up and thats worsened by the way Dusty has stacked the line-up towards the top (right now 6-9 is a black hole).

The bullpen looks to be solid. Even if Dempster falls off, I see Williamson and even Eyre and Howry as guys who can pick-up the slack. Hopefully Wuertz will return to form, but if not, he'll depart in favor of the 5th starter or Novoa. Getting rid of some of the dead wood in Koronka and Wellemeyer was a good idea (but would anyone else be shocked to see Koronka go and win 15 games for the Rangers?). If Eyre and Howry do what other Hendry big name relief pitching aquisitions have done (Remlinger, Hawkins), the Cubs may be looking for a new GM come October.

A healthy Cubs anchored by Wood and Prior could win 95 games. I have seen no reason why we should expect that, however, and in a tough NL Central and with the toughest interleague play schedule, I think this is a 73 win team.

DmL:hope I'm wrong

by dmlichte on Apr 2, 2006 1:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

that

is a pretty good lineup - maybe switch walk and murton but i like having jones 6th or 7th

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 2, 2006 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lefty/Righty

This is my problem with having Walker batting behind Pierre. There are three lefties in the entire line-up. Putting two of them in a row is ridiculous. If you can switch them up and have some spots where there is R-L-R-L, you force the team to make several pitching changes late in the game. If you have Pierre and Walker batting 1-2, than three righties, the opposing manager can bring in a lefty specialist for Pierre and Walker, than bring in a right to face pretty much the rest of the line-up (except for Jones, who isn't a huge threat, anyway). The line-up I have puts goes R-L-R-L-R for batters 4-8, which will force opposing managers to make a few switches, rather than having it R-R-L-R-R.

DmL

by dmlichte on Apr 2, 2006 9:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murton

they more i think about it why not have Murton bat 2nd- he always gets a hit or puts the ball in play and if pierre is on base we could have him at 3rd with lee up and 1 to no outs yet

i know murton has no speed but how fast is walker?

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 2, 2006 7:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I think...

... Murton is better at 6 or 7. He's got more power than Walker.

Walker isn't fast, but does run better than Murton, and with a .350 OBA in the #2 slot, I'd rather have Walker hit there.

by Al on Apr 2, 2006 7:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murton

may hit between 17-25 hrs but we know he will hit for a high ave and also take walks- so best case they are both on for lee usually one will and worst case both out- which was the usual case last year- im with dml split the lefties and let murton bat in the 2 spot

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 2, 2006 10:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I sure hope you're right, Al

My outlook is a bit bleaker. While I'm looking forward to seeing how Sean Marshall acquits himself, I can't see the Cubs pulling off a winning April with a rotation of Zambrano - Maddux - Rusch - Marshall. 23 games in April and most are within the division. They'll be lucky if they aren't 7-16 by May 1.

I much prefer your predictions!

What does not kill you makes you stronger.

by Pa on Apr 2, 2006 7:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

they wont

be 7-16 there is more than enough talent on the team to prevent that

KSUCubbie

by ksucubbie on Apr 2, 2006 7:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Petco Park: NO major changes

The only alteration is very slight. The distance to the deepest part of the park in right center has been shortened from 411 to 402 feet. The fence is now running in a straight line from the corner of the batter's eye in CF to the tip of the message board on the RF wall. Previously, that centerfield fence created a corner at 411 feet. All other distances are the same, meaning left-handed power struggles, with the power alley still at 378 feet. (Brian Giles must really want to play in SD -- as his power numbers will stay down, because of the unforgiving nature of RF. He would have looked great in in Wrigley, but he didn't want to leave here.) The RF pole -- and the little jury box of seats that jut into fair territory -- 322 feet. A gift if a batter can pull right down the line, but few balls have been placed there in two years. Straight away center is still 396 feet, angling out to 402 in left-center. The LF power alley is 367 feet, and 334 to the LF pole and the Western Metals Building. Power numbers will NOT be affected at all -- Petco remains a pitchers park.

by Smooth Jazz Man San Diego on Apr 2, 2006 9:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't overlook the Rockies....

I see this young team possibly escaping the cellar, dumping the D-Backs into last in the NL West. The Rocks have a good young line-up, with, certainly suspect pitching. Last year's miserable start overshadowed a very good second half. (After starting 15-35, the Rocks went 30-28 from August through October) I do remember that they became a factor in the NL West race that final month, as the contenders, all who were treading water, hoping to survive -- were hoping to get past the Rockies. This team will be a pain in the posterior to the rest of the division -- it will not contend, but if the aged squads of the NL West have injury problems....a big surprise may be in order -- they could skip past 2 teams.

by Smooth Jazz Man San Diego on Apr 2, 2006 9:36 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs