2006 Chicago Cubs Minor League MLEs

by Al on Jan 15, 2007 1:19 PM CST in News Comment 13 comments

Jeff Sackmann, who is the SB Nation blogger for the Brewers at Brew Crew Ball, and whose statistical whiz-ness I am in awe of (he's responsible for the wonderful Minor League Splits website I have linked on the left sidebar, has done it again.

He has put together for me a set of major league equivalencies for everyone who played in the Cubs' farm system last year, down to low-A at Peoria.

There are the following caveats:

1. The stats are park-adjusted for the minor league park

2. MLEs are adjusted for league in addition to level

3. These are adjusted for major league park as well (though the MLEs at MinorLeagueSplits are not). Jeff used the park factors on this page.

4. The thresholds for inclusion are 20 IP for pitchers, 50 AB for batters.

5. Jeff included FIP as an approximation of ERA (he doesn't do runs or earned runs on MinorLeagueSplits.com). Here's a page that explains FIP if you are not familiar with that stat.

Iowa Batting MLEs

Player	Age	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	IW	HP	K	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Buck Coats	24	447	111	17	0	5	28	1	3	91	3	2	9	0.248	0.296	0.320	0.616
Jeff Deardorff	27	320	65	17	1	8	24	0	1	90	0	2	14	0.203	0.259	0.338	0.597
Mike Fontenot	26	363	92	23	1	6	34	2	1	67	2	5	4	0.253	0.315	0.372	0.687
Micah Hoffpauir	26	254	59	7	1	9	23	4	1	62	0	7	6	0.232	0.291	0.374	0.665
Casey Kopitzke	28	71	15	1	0	0	6	0	1	14	1	1	4	0.211	0.278	0.225	0.504
Casey McGehee	23	494	120	23	1	8	31	0	2	71	0	4	17	0.243	0.288	0.342	0.630
Luis Montanez	24	245	48	10	0	6	13	0	2	45	1	2	9	0.196	0.240	0.310	0.551
Augie Ojeda	31	308	66	9	1	2	32	3	6	39	12	5	9	0.214	0.296	0.269	0.566
Matt Padgett	28	61	9	2	0	1	5	0	0	21	0	1	2	0.148	0.209	0.230	0.438
Eric Patterson	23	67	21	1	1	1	4	0	0	10	0	3	2	0.313	0.338	0.403	0.741
Felix Pie	21	557	136	26	6	11	34	3	4	131	9	3	11	0.244	0.291	0.372	0.663
Michael Restovich	27	441	111	22	3	20	37	5	5	124	0	4	9	0.252	0.314	0.451	0.765
Jose Reyes	23	109	24	5	0	0	10	0	1	12	1	0	5	0.220	0.292	0.266	0.558
Brandon Sing	25	96	15	3	0	3	10	0	4	35	0	0	3	0.156	0.264	0.281	0.545
Geovany Soto	23	338	79	17	0	4	31	2	2	76	3	2	10	0.234	0.300	0.320	0.620
Ryan Theriot	26	279	73	9	4	0	18	0	1	36	1	2	5	0.262	0.307	0.323	0.629

Iowa Pitching MLEs

Player	Age	IP	H	2B	HR	BB	IW	HP	K	GDP	BAA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WHIP	W/9	K/9	HR/9	FIP
David Aardsma	24	32.7	37	10	1	19	2	0	30	3	0.286	0.373	0.387	0.759	1.71	5.23	8.26	0.28	3.51
Wilton Chavez	28	29.7	37	8	5	16	0	3	14	4	0.308	0.396	0.548	0.945	1.78	4.85	4.24	1.52	6.36
Brandon Emanuel	30	68.0	91	24	13	33	1	5	50	8	0.325	0.404	0.556	0.960	1.82	4.37	6.62	1.72	5.89
Angel Guzman	24	71.3	84	17	6	30	0	3	65	4	0.295	0.364	0.439	0.803	1.60	3.79	8.20	0.76	3.86
Rich Hill	26	95.0	72	11	4	27	0	7	116	5	0.208	0.278	0.305	0.582	1.04	2.56	10.99	0.38	2.38
Kerry Ligtenberg	35	57.0	75	10	10	8	1	1	37	3	0.321	0.343	0.518	0.860	1.46	1.26	5.84	1.58	4.66
Sean Marshall	23	20.0	20	4	1	18	0	0	18	1	0.261	0.402	0.379	0.781	1.90	8.10	8.10	0.45	4.75
Ryan O'Malley	26	113.7	160	38	12	38	1	7	59	12	0.335	0.388	0.521	0.908	1.74	3.01	4.67	0.95	4.72
Clay Rapada	25	20.0	32	7	0	19	1	3	18	4	0.370	0.488	0.473	0.963	2.55	8.55	8.10	0.00	4.70
Jae Kuk Ryu	23	132.3	145	39	16	65	1	5	96	6	0.278	0.363	0.460	0.823	1.59	4.42	6.53	1.09	4.91
Andy Shipman	24	48.0	75	21	1	33	0	1	36	7	0.363	0.447	0.478	0.926	2.25	6.19	6.75	0.19	4.10
Raul Valdes	28	28.3	51	15	6	14	0	3	17	2	0.397	0.461	0.654	1.117	2.30	4.45	5.41	1.91	6.56
Les Walrond	30	124.0	159	35	14	73	6	9	88	17	0.314	0.407	0.481	0.889	1.87	5.30	6.39	1.02	5.23
Randy Wells	23	65.0	103	22	9	29	1	1	50	3	0.364	0.421	0.538	0.960	2.03	4.02	6.92	1.25	4.85
Jerome Williams	24	100.7	170	28	22	44	1	4	43	11	0.380	0.435	0.598	1.033	2.13	3.93	3.84	1.97	6.62
Michael Wuertz	27	42.3	35	6	3	11	1	1	57	0	0.224	0.279	0.359	0.638	1.09	2.34	12.13	0.64	2.28

West Tenn Batting MLEs

Player	Age	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	IW	HP	K	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gary CatesJr.	24	237	54	10	1	1	19	2	1	34	1	3	5	0.228	0.285	0.291	0.576
Brian Dopirak	22	179	39	9	0	1	12	0	1	44	0	2	7	0.218	0.268	0.285	0.553
Jake Fox	23	193	44	13	0	4	7	0	1	48	0	1	11	0.228	0.257	0.358	0.615
Adam Greenberg	25	84	13	2	0	0	7	2	1	29	4	0	0	0.155	0.228	0.179	0.407
Micah Hoffpauir	26	138	32	8	1	7	15	2	1	31	0	3	2	0.232	0.306	0.457	0.762
Nic Jackson	26	257	66	13	4	3	21	3	1	53	0	2	5	0.257	0.313	0.374	0.687
Richard Lewis	26	346	75	14	1	1	21	1	3	68	4	2	5	0.217	0.266	0.272	0.538
Luis Montanez	24	141	44	9	0	1	11	1	2	28	2	1	2	0.312	0.368	0.397	0.765
Scott Moore	22	463	110	21	0	17	41	7	6	135	1	5	7	0.238	0.305	0.393	0.698
Miguel Negron	23	267	67	15	3	1	19	1	0	47	4	2	6	0.251	0.299	0.341	0.639
Eric Patterson	23	445	102	16	7	6	34	2	1	95	5	6	2	0.229	0.282	0.337	0.619
Jose Reyes	23	144	28	2	0	0	7	1	0	27	3	0	7	0.194	0.232	0.208	0.440
Tony Richie	24	222	43	12	0	0	4	0	2	49	1	3	8	0.194	0.212	0.248	0.460
Carlos Rojas	22	353	61	7	0	0	21	4	1	57	12	1	7	0.173	0.221	0.193	0.413
Brandon Sing	25	240	42	7	0	6	37	2	1	81	0	3	4	0.175	0.285	0.279	0.564
Chris Walker	25	512	129	16	8	1	30	2	5	109	5	1	8	0.252	0.299	0.320	0.620
Aaron Weston	25	89	20	5	0	2	3	0	0	34	1	1	1	0.225	0.247	0.348	0.596

West Tenn Pitching MLEs

Player	Age	IP	H	2B	HR	BB	IW	HP	K	GDP	BAA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WHIP	W/9	K/9	HR/9	FIP
Thomas Atlee	26	66.7	67	12	6	42	4	4	38	7	0.262	0.372	0.379	0.752	1.63	5.67	5.13	0.81	5.30
Federico Baez	24	62.7	66	21	9	27	3	4	35	2	0.271	0.352	0.477	0.830	1.48	3.88	5.02	1.29	5.43
Bobby Brownlie	25	67.0	121	31	11	51	2	1	38	12	0.398	0.484	0.637	1.121	2.57	6.85	5.10	1.48	6.53
Edward Campusano	23	25.0	27	4	3	12	2	0	26	0	0.277	0.357	0.431	0.787	1.56	4.32	9.36	1.08	4.12
Rocky Cherry	26	44.0	52	5	5	21	3	4	37	3	0.296	0.379	0.411	0.791	1.66	4.30	7.57	1.02	4.70
Sean Gallagher	20	78.3	87	22	6	83	2	1	68	8	0.283	0.434	0.413	0.847	2.17	9.54	7.82	0.69	5.68
Lincoln Holdzkom	24	29.7	29	6	0	15	1	1	20	5	0.255	0.348	0.309	0.656	1.48	4.55	6.06	0.00	3.47
Carlos Marmol	23	53.7	50	10	2	37	0	1	50	4	0.246	0.364	0.355	0.719	1.62	6.20	8.38	0.34	3.94
Juan Mateo	23	87.7	92	22	9	39	0	4	52	4	0.271	0.351	0.421	0.772	1.49	4.00	5.34	0.92	4.82
JR Mathes	24	151.3	196	42	16	46	2	1	85	20	0.317	0.363	0.467	0.830	1.60	2.74	5.06	0.95	4.38
Isaac Pavlik	26	37.3	50	7	5	21	0	0	26	3	0.325	0.403	0.467	0.870	1.90	5.07	6.27	1.21	5.24
Carmen Pignatiello	23	58.0	62	16	5	30	1	7	55	4	0.274	0.376	0.438	0.814	1.59	4.66	8.53	0.78	4.34
Clay Rapada	25	42.0	35	4	2	15	2	3	34	5	0.225	0.307	0.289	0.596	1.19	3.21	7.29	0.43	3.49
Paul Schappert	24	41.7	54	10	6	30	0	3	16	3	0.318	0.426	0.493	0.921	2.01	6.47	3.45	1.29	6.68
Chris Shaver	24	141.0	174	40	11	85	8	4	89	15	0.306	0.399	0.451	0.850	1.84	5.43	5.68	0.70	4.85
Carlos Vasquez	23	48.3	49	9	3	46	1	5	44	3	0.263	0.420	0.360	0.781	1.97	8.57	8.20	0.56	5.35
Randy Wells	23	60.3	53	11	3	19	1	4	40	4	0.236	0.305	0.325	0.629	1.19	2.84	5.97	0.45	3.66

Daytona Batting MLEs

Player	Age	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	IW	HP	K	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Matthew Ciaramella	23	227	38	7	0	1	10	1	0	54	4	2	6	0.167	0.201	0.211	0.412
Matt Craig	25	449	100	26	2	7	47	3	3	123	1	2	13	0.223	0.299	0.336	0.636
Jeff Culpepper	24	251	51	8	1	1	17	0	2	56	1	2	6	0.203	0.257	0.255	0.512
Jake Fox	23	248	61	11	1	9	19	3	4	57	1	8	4	0.246	0.301	0.407	0.708
Sam Fuld	24	353	83	14	4	2	28	5	3	63	5	1	6	0.235	0.296	0.314	0.611
Daniel Gonzalez	24	144	26	2	0	0	7	2	2	30	1	0	2	0.181	0.229	0.194	0.423
Ryan Harvey	21	474	91	18	1	11	18	3	3	146	0	3	12	0.192	0.225	0.304	0.529
Nic Jackson	26	69	15	2	2	1	5	0	2	18	0	0	2	0.217	0.289	0.348	0.637
Andrew Lane	24	117	16	2	0	0	14	0	1	27	2	0	3	0.137	0.235	0.154	0.389
Jonathan Mota	19	170	32	5	1	1	6	0	1	31	8	2	6	0.188	0.218	0.247	0.465
Jake Muyco	21	133	21	2	0	1	7	0	1	47	3	1	2	0.158	0.204	0.195	0.400
Nathan Price	22	98	21	2	1	0	6	0	1	30	1	0	2	0.214	0.267	0.255	0.522
Alan Rick	22	240	45	9	1	5	12	1	2	73	2	4	5	0.188	0.229	0.296	0.525
Issmael Salas	23	83	20	6	0	0	5	0	1	19	1	0	0	0.241	0.292	0.313	0.605
Joseph Simokaitis	23	320	66	8	1	1	26	0	5	74	10	2	5	0.206	0.275	0.247	0.522
Jemel Spearman	25	490	108	22	3	2	40	1	6	97	15	5	13	0.220	0.285	0.290	0.574
Nate Spears	21	320	62	11	1	1	22	1	5	61	7	3	4	0.194	0.254	0.244	0.498
Jon-Mark Sprowl	25	51	5	1	0	0	2	0	0	6	0	1	3	0.098	0.130	0.118	0.247
Aaron Weston	25	174	33	3	1	1	9	0	2	41	0	0	3	0.190	0.238	0.236	0.473
Olin Wick	24	73	14	1	0	1	4	0	0	24	0	0	6	0.192	0.234	0.247	0.480

Daytona Pitching MLEs

Player	Age	IP	H	2B	HR	BB	IW	HP	K	GDP	BAA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WHIP	W/9	K/9	HR/9	FIP
Justin Berg	22	110.7	150	29	7	92	0	15	56	18	0.331	0.456	0.455	0.911	2.19	7.48	4.55	0.57	5.91
Ryan Bicondoa	27	43.0	44	7	4	20	0	3	31	4	0.268	0.358	0.384	0.742	1.49	4.19	6.49	0.84	4.57
Stephen Bronder	22	56.3	68	14	11	48	4	7	29	9	0.306	0.440	0.525	0.965	2.06	7.67	4.64	1.76	7.64
Sean Gallagher	20	71.7	90	12	7	36	0	7	54	11	0.315	0.401	0.429	0.830	1.76	4.52	6.78	0.88	4.76
Mark Holliman	22	136.7	153	34	19	102	0	21	84	9	0.286	0.416	0.464	0.880	1.87	6.72	5.53	1.25	6.48
Jon Hunton	23	64.3	74	17	7	60	4	9	37	3	0.293	0.438	0.468	0.907	2.08	8.40	5.18	0.98	6.68
Grant Johnson	23	87.0	131	35	12	67	1	3	38	6	0.357	0.457	0.569	1.025	2.28	6.93	3.93	1.24	6.53
Tim Layden	23	53.3	51	9	5	50	1	7	31	2	0.255	0.417	0.375	0.793	1.89	8.44	5.23	0.84	6.46
Adalberto Mendez	24	58.0	58	17	5	31	0	1	44	5	0.263	0.356	0.418	0.775	1.53	4.81	6.83	0.78	4.46
Carlos Perez	24	100.7	168	38	12	97	1	4	59	12	0.384	0.496	0.568	1.065	2.63	8.67	5.27	1.07	6.59
Michael Phelps	22	25.7	35	9	2	15	0	1	17	3	0.335	0.417	0.478	0.895	1.95	5.25	5.95	0.70	4.76
Paul Schappert	24	30.0	23	1	5	15	0	1	14	3	0.212	0.312	0.360	0.670	1.27	4.50	4.20	1.50	6.03
Roberto Sotolongo	23	32.3	42	8	5	27	0	3	15	0	0.323	0.449	0.545	0.994	2.14	7.52	4.18	1.39	7.07
Carlos Vasquez	23	32.7	28	3	0	17	0	0	21	4	0.232	0.323	0.274	0.597	1.38	4.68	5.78	0.00	3.48
Donald Veal	21	75.0	54	8	4	73	0	3	61	6	0.202	0.378	0.298	0.676	1.69	8.76	7.32	0.48	5.31
Matt Weber	21	52.0	80	13	14	32	1	6	18	7	0.364	0.451	0.650	1.101	2.15	5.54	3.12	2.42	8.20

Peoria Batting MLEs

Player	Age	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	IW	HP	K	SH	SF	GDP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yusuf Carter	21	275	43	5	1	6	13	0	1	105	0	4	4	0.156	0.195	0.247	0.442
Robinson Chirinos	22	432	79	20	1	5	39	0	8	94	5	6	7	0.183	0.260	0.269	0.528
Matthew Ciaramella	23	163	26	3	1	1	12	1	1	29	3	1	7	0.160	0.220	0.209	0.429
Kevin Collins	25	69	13	3	0	2	2	1	0	24	0	0	1	0.188	0.211	0.319	0.530
Alberto Garcia	23	371	73	13	2	3	13	1	4	91	2	4	10	0.197	0.230	0.267	0.496
Davy Gregg	23	415	71	7	1	0	15	1	2	119	7	2	3	0.171	0.203	0.193	0.396
Dylan Johnston	19	190	29	5	2	0	15	2	2	71	4	0	3	0.153	0.222	0.200	0.422
Blake Lalli	23	68	9	2	0	0	2	0	1	13	0	0	3	0.132	0.169	0.162	0.331
Ryan Lilly	22	72	17	3	0	2	2	0	1	16	0	0	0	0.236	0.267	0.361	0.628
Ryne Malone	21	181	39	11	1	1	16	0	2	40	0	0	2	0.215	0.286	0.304	0.590
Jonathan Mota	19	91	19	1	1	0	3	0	1	16	1	1	2	0.209	0.240	0.242	0.481
Jake Muyco	21	126	19	3	0	1	7	0	0	39	1	1	1	0.151	0.194	0.198	0.392
Ryan Norwood	23	504	115	19	0	8	15	3	8	126	0	8	12	0.228	0.258	0.313	0.571
Mark Reed	20	349	66	8	0	1	15	0	3	98	4	0	9	0.189	0.229	0.221	0.450
Kyle Reynolds	22	330	56	9	3	5	14	4	2	108	0	3	5	0.170	0.206	0.261	0.467
Brandon Taylor	23	187	30	7	1	2	4	0	3	39	1	2	8	0.160	0.189	0.241	0.429
Jesus Valdez	21	509	115	17	1	3	12	2	5	86	3	3	14	0.226	0.250	0.281	0.530

Peoria Pitching MLEs

Player	Age	IP	H	2B	HR	BB	IW	HP	K	GDP	BAA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WHIP	W/9	K/9	HR/9	FIP
Mitch Atkins	20	130.3	158	33	20	104	2	6	77	2	0.314	0.433	0.509	0.942	2.01	7.18	5.32	1.38	6.55
Matt Avery	22	65.3	65	15	8	54	2	6	46	4	0.268	0.415	0.463	0.877	1.82	7.44	6.34	1.10	6.14
Mike Billek	22	34.3	64	15	6	22	0	2	15	0	0.432	0.509	0.654	1.163	2.51	5.77	3.94	1.57	6.70
Todd Blackford	21	130.7	227	44	22	124	1	28	42	16	0.409	0.532	0.628	1.161	2.69	8.54	2.89	1.51	8.23
Edward Campusano	23	29.3	24	8	0	17	0	4	28	1	0.230	0.356	0.345	0.700	1.40	5.22	8.60	0.00	3.44
Jesse Estrada	22	87.7	127	32	8	56	1	17	37	9	0.358	0.465	0.528	0.993	2.09	5.75	3.80	0.82	6.04
Roger Evenson	22	39.7	57	12	12	17	2	6	19	3	0.358	0.437	0.684	1.122	1.86	3.85	4.31	2.72	7.91
Scott Koerber	23	46.7	57	12	8	52	3	2	21	2	0.317	0.468	0.561	1.029	2.33	10.02	4.05	1.54	8.00
Jon Mueller	22	29.7	49	12	6	19	2	7	12	3	0.397	0.486	0.672	1.159	2.29	5.76	3.64	1.82	7.64
Justin Rayborn	23	63.7	86	21	8	33	2	4	44	6	0.342	0.426	0.537	0.963	1.87	4.66	6.22	1.13	5.19
Joel Santo	22	32.0	44	8	4	39	2	6	16	0	0.346	0.512	0.534	1.045	2.59	10.97	4.50	1.13	8.04
Scott Taylor	19	130.7	208	53	16	54	0	2	43	6	0.385	0.438	0.589	1.027	2.00	3.72	2.96	1.10	5.42
Jeff Teasley	23	42.3	71	15	12	24	0	4	23	2	0.401	0.478	0.688	1.167	2.25	5.11	4.89	2.55	7.79
Donald Veal	21	68.0	64	12	8	76	0	4	52	2	0.257	0.436	0.418	0.854	2.06	10.06	6.88	1.06	6.73
Jesus Yepez	22	114.3	193	51	18	135	2	11	44	12	0.401	0.539	0.631	1.170	2.87	10.63	3.46	1.42	8.31

0 recs | Comment 13 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Interesting

the only OBP anyone has that jumps out at me is E Pat's.....well interesting.

TRAMMELL!

by Faith plus 1 on Jan 15, 2007 1:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The best Iowa line belongs to Restovich...

Yes, I'm still bitter he never even got a shot.

by VS on Jan 15, 2007 2:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yes, he should have gotten a shot.

But that .765 OPS, even as a MLE, is nothing special.

by Al on Jan 15, 2007 2:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

.934 OPS at Iowa

I never said he was going to be a star. But the guy crushes lefties and he would'be been a perfect platoon partner for Jones. That's all I'm saying.

by VS on Jan 15, 2007 2:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh, you can edit your posts?

by VS on Jan 15, 2007 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Man, you're quick. That wasn't up for more than 30 seconds.

I can't edit my comments. But, I can delete them. Comes with being the blogger.

You're right. He'd have made a good platoon partner. I said so myself.

by Al on Jan 15, 2007 2:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Clay Rapada

Rapada's numbers leap out, especially the WHIP and W/9. Fantastic at AA, brutal at AAA, but with small sample sizes at both. Given that, I'd like to see him spend the first half of 2007 in the Iowa bullpen getting 25-30 high-pressure appearances, either as the closer or being brought into multi-batter RISP situations mid-inning (depending on if they think he will start the 7th/8th innings or come into mid-inning situations at the ML level).

by Invalid User on Jan 15, 2007 2:35 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Nice Name!

by Ihatethecards on Jan 16, 2007 7:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

pretty cool

stuff

"Its not like we need 10-12 players to contend"

by ksucubbie on Jan 15, 2007 3:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The problem with MLE's

is that they don't consider age and/or similar players. These numbers are interesting, but all they tell us is what the player would have done last season at his age with his skill set. A typical 21-year old shows a 26.9% increase in production from his age 20 season. For 22-26: 15.1%, 16.4%, 6.1%, 8.2%, 4.0%.

After that the mean change in production (Equivalent Runs) is negative.

They'd be a more useful indicator of future performance if the park was adjusted to fit the home park of the player and the age progression was included.

For example, Felix Pie's approximate EQR in 2006 at Iowa would have been about 50 (Barrett was 64). Add the 15.1% improvement for his age and it's up to 58. AS I've said many times, Barrett is wildly overrated, but that's not bad for a rookie. Not bad for paying him next to nothing.

by Maddog on Jan 15, 2007 6:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs