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Thoughts On A Division Series

SCOTTSDALE, Arizona -- I have been racking my brains trying to think of what I could write in previewing this series that hasn't been written in 1000 other places.

OK, no, I have to come clean. I've been sitting by the pool enjoying the sun and reading all afternoon, and not stressing about this at all. There'll be plenty of time to get energy levels up and stress tomorrow, when Game One will actually be played. Now, don't get me wrong -- I AM excited. Just about crawling out of my skin, in fact.

Anyway, back to previews. If you want a good statistical comparison between the two clubs, The Baseball Analysts has one. So does Baseball Prospectus, and Nate Silver has decided:

... to go out on a little bit of a limb and predict a Cubs sweep.

Well, that's a little too optimistic even for optimistic me; more on this anon. I've decided to focus this little preview on two things:

  • the six games between the two ballclubs this year, and
  • the well-known fact that the Diamondbacks were outscored by twenty runs over the course of the 2007 season.
The Diamondbacks won four of the six games played between the two clubs, but the Cubs outscored them 19-18, which plays neatly into the "we got outscored but won anyway" theory; D'backs third baseman Mark Reynolds summed it up in this Washington Post article:
"When we lose, it seems like we lose 15-0," Reynolds said. "But if we win the first two games of a series, then lose 15-0 in the third game, we still won the series."

Well now, let's examine this. Here's the Diamondbacks' complete game schedule from 2007. They allowed ten or more runs in a game fifteen times in 2007, and lost all fifteen of them. This isn't unusual -- the Cubs' record in such games, for example, was 0-11 -- but the D'backs lost all of those games by at least five runs, and the combined score of those blowouts was 166-41. Contrast this with the Cubs' eleven losses of that sort; five of them were at least within shouting distance (four runs or less -- 12-9 to the Cardinals on April 22; 11-7 to the Phillies on May 12; 10-6 to the White Sox on May 20; 10-6 to the Phillies on August 2, and 11-9 to the Reds on August 15), and the total score of those blowouts was 125-55. Arizona's overall record in 5+ run games was 20-26; the Cubs' was 27-17.

The point of this little exercise is to show that the D'backs' run differential may be more attributable to those blowouts than a "normal" team, and they had a very good record in one-run games (32-20, compared to 23-22 for the Cubs). A lot of this can be credited to Arizona's good bullpen, anchored by Jose Valverde, who led the major leagues in saves with 47.

He saved one game against the Cubs that I'm sure you all remember -- the final regular-season game of the year between the clubs on August 26, a game in which Jason Marquis was staked to a 3-0 lead in the first inning, a lead he promptly blew by giving up two HR to Chris Young; the Cubs managed to claw back to within 5-4 when Derrek Lee hit a monster inside-the-park HR, a ball that went about as far as you can hit it in Chase Field without hitting it out. The Cubs had a real good shot at tying the game or going ahead vs. Valverde in the 9th, when Mike Fontenot got thrown out trying to steal third on a failed bunt attempt by Jason Kendall.

The Cubs lost another game to Arizona when Bob Howry gave up a tiebreaking HR to then-.243 hitting Stephen Drew, and another when Yusmeiro Petit, one of those young guys the Cubs never do well against when seeing them for the first time, replaced Randy Johnson (yes, he was a member of the D'backs, this year, though he didn't pitch after June 28), and shut the Cubs down on three hits over six innings. Petit won't pitch in this series.

So what's the lesson here? Score early and often -- something the Cubs have been doing quite well in recent weeks -- and hold the opposition down so you get into their bullpen early, and keep Valverde out of the game, and beating Arizona becomes much, much easier. The D'backs did have the best regular-season record at 90-72, but the Cubs were only five games worse. To my mind, there isn't really much to differentiate the four NL playoff teams -- all are flawed, and all have strengths. The Cubs were 17-12 in September; Arizona was 15-11. Beat Brandon Webb, with Z on the mound tomorrow, and I believe the task becomes far, far easier.

Bruce Miles says the Cubs will sweep. In talking with Bruce all summer, he's always had confidence that the Cubs could and would win the division. I respect his opinion greatly, as I know all of you do too.

I'm not ready to go that far out on a limb. Cubs in four. Let's win this thing.

0 recs  |  Comment 108 comments

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since i get the 1st comment...
i'll say this........... go cubs go!!! go cubs go!!!
Here comes the nasty leftie to shut it down in the 9th......Clay Rapada!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 2, 2007 7:26 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It all depends..
the key to winning this series is the first game. If the Cubs come out and dominate tomorrow, then I feel that the chances with Lilly on Thursday are good. If the Cubs go home 2-0, they could sweep..
Now that he is back, play Matt Murton!!

by Chanman25 on Oct 2, 2007 7:38 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Playoff roster??
...surprised not a separate thread on this...heard on Comcast Monroe and, I think, Pie didn't make it...Marquis did and maybe...Blanco and not Marshall, but not sure...both Fontenot and Cedeno did make it, also Ward...sounds like a young bench.

by writerinwrigley on Oct 2, 2007 7:40 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Pie made it.
not sure where you got your info, but Felix is on the roster
Eamus Catuli!

by sackings108 on Oct 2, 2007 7:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any predictions of a sweep
Make me nervous.  Webb is a great pitcher and any team with a great starter has a fighting chance.  The DBacks offense isn't dominating, but it managed to get the job done during the regular season.  

That being said, I think the Cubs fate is largely in their own hands.  If both teams play their best baseball, I like our boys to win in 4.  That is, however, a big "IF"...

-Z needs to be dominant
-Soriano needs to stay hot
-Aramis needs to return to his role as clutch performer
-JJones needs to be productive at the bottom of the lineup
-Theriot needs to be pesky at the plate and on the basepaths
-Dempster needs to be effective in the 9th

That's a lot of variables is all I'm saying.  A sweep would only be possible if all of those fall in our favor and that seems a little unlikely to me.

GO CUBS!!!

"Look, what's important is to be in first place on the last day of the season." -Lou 8/1/07

by 26.2cubfan on Oct 2, 2007 7:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Starting Pitching
That's the key to this series. Obviously starting pitching is important in any series, but more so with these 2 clubs. Both have solid bullpens with the DBacks having the advantage with Valverde over Dempster.

 Cubs will need to get out to early leads throughout and I see this series going 5 games.

 Can't wait for tomorrow and I'll be in section 105 for game 1 and 114 for game 2 so hopefully I can swing by and get you to sign my BCB shirt :)

 ESPN had the usual piece about the Cubs today about their Bartmans and goats etc, but at the very end, which for the first since 2003 brought a tiny cubby tear to my eye, a (cute) lady summed it up perfectly for me,while saying (paraphrasing): "I was a die hard Cubs fan up to a couple years ago and put all my heart into the Cubs and then I became more casual because they hurt me too much, but damn it if they didn't get me again this year!"  

Go Cubs!!!!

by lemon20pie on Oct 2, 2007 7:49 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

ESPN - bah!!!
In typical Eastcoast Sports Programming Network fashion, their baseball home page has a huge glossy of ARod in front of the New York skyline with the headline "King of Gotham!" Never mind that late last night Col won the NL wildcard in a thrilling extra-inning game on a very controversial game-ending call. And never mind that the Yankees don't even play until Thursday. Instead we are graced by the presence of A-Rod's playoff game face for the next two days. Where's Bob Knight and his 'game face' when you need him... ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Oct 2, 2007 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ESPN is a wasteland ..
of feckless partisan sports "coverage" and a self aggrandizing belief that it's the greatest source of sports news since TV was invented. And they don't give a hoot ..

During the last Boston / Yankees series, during one of the ESPN News 30 minute recaps, I did an unscientific measurement. I noted how long the announcers blathered on and on and on and on about the Boston/NY game that day. It was eight solid minutes.

EIGHT MINUTES of blab and gabble about these two teams. That is an eternity that ESPN routinely grants for worship of their Eastern baseball gods.

The same day the Cubs were destroying St Louis - the WORLD CHAMPION ST LOUIS CARDINALS - in their own park and effectively burying the Redturds in their own soulless concrete tub of a park.

The announcers dutifully noted this story after the 8 minute worship service. Do you know how much time they gave the game?

All of maybe two minutes. MAYBE TWO.

And then they have the crass gall to bring on Dusty Baker to pontificate about the Cubs' mistakes during the disastrous Florida series. I don't even want to go there.

I simply HATE ESPN. They are the 800 pound gorilla with diarrhea in sports media.

Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!

by cubnational on Oct 2, 2007 10:21 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blah to ESPN
Did anyone see the story on Sportcenter? The main part of the story was about Steve Bartman.

by Madison Cub Fan on Oct 3, 2007 12:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That piece was awful
I normally like Mike Greenberg, but he should be ashamed of himself for that piece of garbage.  I finally turned off the TV.  

The best he can do after an NL Division championship is a five minute piece full of four-year-old recycled footage of Bartman?

by WrigleyATL on Oct 3, 2007 8:44 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

To be fair
Greenberg was given that assignment by the ESPN suits since he has a Chicago history.
PERRY!!!!

by Goat Whisperer on Oct 3, 2007 9:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

More ESPN garbage
ON ESPN news last night they had Eric Young making his predictions.

He went on to say that AZ had better pitching and that would be key to the series.  As he his saying this a graphic that shows NL team ranks in ERA, Ks, BAA and something else.

The Cubs ranked higher in 3 of 4 categories.

Why is it that know seems to realize the Cubs have the 2nd best team ERA and the highest K rate.

Yet Eric Young seems to think our pitching isn't as good as the D-Backs. Dumbass.

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Oct 3, 2007 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ey also said
jacque jones would be the key player for the cubs, theres no reason to ever listen to these ex-players opinions.

ha, on the football end though, there is no bigger joke than keyshawn johnson trying to act like he knows what he's talking about, pure comedy.

Kevin Hart Watch: IP: 11 K: 13 ERA: 0.82 WHIP: 1.00 K/BB: 3.25 a productive farm system is a wonderful thing.

by kylejo on Oct 3, 2007 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

About JJ ... you never know ..
He sure surprised everyone after the Cubs tried to trade him didn't he?

There may be something to this ..

Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!

by cubnational on Oct 3, 2007 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

No sweep ... Cubs in a hard fought 4
They are young and hungry.

We are maturer and hungrier.

They've been to the dance and now it is our turn.

This is the year and the Cubs are real

Get yo' self to the West's Wrigley Field

Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!

by cubnational on Oct 2, 2007 7:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The regular season awards...
... aren't announced till after the World Series.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 2, 2007 7:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But
Dmitri Young and Carlos Peña were named Comeback Players of the Year, if that makes you feel any better.
The artist formerly known as JoshinLA

by Josh77 on Oct 2, 2007 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cubs in 4
I'm nervous about this series.

by CubbiesBlue on Oct 2, 2007 8:03 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If
The Cubs win game one, I think they sweep.

If the D-Backs win game one, it's going to be a long, tough series for both teams.

We have to find a way to beat Webb.

The artist formerly known as JoshinLA

by Josh77 on Oct 2, 2007 8:04 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

When it comes to beating someone
Tanya Harding is available at the right price.  A quick pipe to the back of the knee is her specialty. :-)
Prince Fielder...he is neither.

by LAcarl519 on Oct 2, 2007 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Postseason Roster was Announced
I put up a diary with the roster. JH had a press conference today and announced it.
Eamus Catuli!

by sackings108 on Oct 2, 2007 8:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Gotta take game 1...
Our ace vs theirs, Go Z, Go Cubbies!!!!
You ARE freaking out MAN!

by crw89 on Oct 2, 2007 9:01 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree!
The tone to this series will be set in game one.  The D'backs are young and will feed or die on the emotion established in the first game.  The Cubs can grab the crowd and momentum in Phoenix with a first game victory.

We need Z to be the calm/strong/in control Z that he has been of late.  Go get 'em Z!!

Prince Fielder...he is neither.

by LAcarl519 on Oct 2, 2007 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I will always remember
that quote by Len in the Colorado game..
World Series or bust!!!

by Chanman25 on Oct 2, 2007 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I love how
DeRosa was on the field before Koyie crossed the plate.  I love that guy!
"Look, what's important is to be in first place on the last day of the season." -Lou 8/1/07

by 26.2cubfan on Oct 2, 2007 9:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I kind of like this one
Although it's much better after a few beers.

Question, is the guy yelling out "Get your man" in Go Cubs towards the end?

Damn I'm not going to sleep tonight.

by Villeslgr on Oct 3, 2007 1:17 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not Sleeping
I made the mistake a nap today....so between that and excitment for tomorrow... I am so not sleeping either.

by Madison Cub Fan on Oct 3, 2007 1:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry for being selfish...
but hope they win it in 4, because I have tickets to Sunday's game!  Go Cubs!

by CubFan1973 on Oct 2, 2007 9:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I also have tix to game 4
if one is needed but I will not mind at all waiting for the next series if it means the Cubbies swept they asses out!
MMMMM...Fernandos fajitas and margaritas

by Kinky Reggae on Oct 2, 2007 11:08 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
The TBS Sports website is bad.  They don't have the schedule posted by team.  And they have a picture of Tom Glavine on their "Postseason Baseball" blurb.  Yikes.  Hope the TV production folks are more competent than the web people...
"Look, what's important is to be in first place on the last day of the season." -Lou 8/1/07

by 26.2cubfan on Oct 2, 2007 9:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I bet
they did that on purpose.  They don't want people tuning into 'their' teams game, they want them to watch many more games than that.

by blueapple on Oct 2, 2007 10:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Starting pitching
Have to have it, I say Cubs in 4, this will a tough series. DBacks are tough. Cubs 23-22 in one run, they started out, what, 2-11, Am I correct.
Go Cubs, take it game by game.

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Oct 2, 2007 10:04 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't have a prediction
of how many games, but on paper, it looks like advantage Cubs.

It will be interesting to see the most important thing; how the players respond once the series begins.  Sometimes your stars can get shut down and you need to have the support players step up.  

Who will perform and who will struggle?  I know the focus is on DLee, Soriano and Ramirez offensively, but I have a feeling both DeRosa and Soto will have a good series.  Hopefully 2 of the three horses produce and the Cubs should be in decent shape if the pitching performs to their capabilities.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 2, 2007 10:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I've got a question about playoff tickets
Are the bleachers not GA?  It looks like on Stub Hub they sell them by section and seat.

Also, what do the Cubs sell the bleacher seats for?

Los Cachorros!

by Laven on Oct 2, 2007 10:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Bleachers are
reserved seating for the playoffs.

It doesn't matter what the Cubs sell them for, really.

If you didn't get them, the prices are all over the map!

It is OCTOBER, and we're STILL PLAYING BASEBALL!!

by TheEman on Oct 2, 2007 10:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

FWIW...
... face value on NLDS bleacher tickets is $50.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 2, 2007 10:58 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

OhMan! not ont the roster?!
Damn!

I am SO disraught!

<sigh> but I'll get over it (quickly)

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!

It is OCTOBER, and we're STILL PLAYING BASEBALL!!

by TheEman on Oct 2, 2007 10:27 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ohman
Ohman has to be either on the NLCS or world series roster if we make it

Because wouldn't it be fitting if the winning pitcher for the clinching game of either was named Ohman and pronounced like Omen?

by cubstoseriesby100 on Oct 2, 2007 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why? He deserves zip.
That guy proved himself a complete selfish idiot when he claimed he was supposedly injured.  Couldn't accept that ticket to Iowa and go quietly to improve his pitching.  Maroon.

There are some times where The Team must come first, not a player's personal agenda or--in Ohman's case--ego.

REVERSE THE CURSE! REVERSE THE CURSE!

by Littlerock Rynofan on Oct 3, 2007 7:45 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does anybody know
what is the team hotel in Phoenix?

by Not Bruce Froemming on Oct 2, 2007 10:27 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

If I had to guess, I'd say the Ritz Carlton on
24th and Camelback, its where all the sports teams typically atay when they are in town.  I know this because I was a valet in college (ASU) and had the fortune to meet a lot of the pro athletes back then.  
You gotta practice on the ugly ones to get good with the good-lookin' ones

by rustydevil on Oct 3, 2007 12:10 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Another Sun Devil?
Welcome to the ever-growing club here!  Of course, when I went to ASU, the only professional team Phoenix fielded was in basketball (how times have changed!) ...

24th and Camelback?  Very, very nice area as I recall, but totally changed since I lived there.  The AZ Biltmore is in that vicinity.

REVERSE THE CURSE! REVERSE THE CURSE!

by Littlerock Rynofan on Oct 3, 2007 7:42 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jonah Keri's column...
...about the Cubs/Diamondbacks series called for the 'Backs winning in four--predicting that the Cubs would pound lefty junkballer Davis and struggle against everyone else.

Prediction: Jonah Keri did not watch or listen to a lot of Cubs games.

Before each game, please remember to feed the bats.

by Cool Hand on Oct 3, 2007 12:51 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

A few keys to the series...
... IMO

The first is obvious... Zambrano and Lilly. If these two pitch to their abilities, this series will, at most, go 4 games. Zambrano and Lilly are top notch starters facing a team that isn't the strongest offense. However Zambrano can let his emotions get out of hand and Lilly can give up 5 runs before retiring a batter. Z needs to control his emotions and Lilly needs to avoid the big innings.

Theriot. Who is he? If Ryan can be the offensive spark plug who was a key to the Cubs winning amidst Soriano's absence, there are going to be a lot of runners on base for Lee and Ramirez.

Hitting adjustments. If Cub batters show up tomorrow and the next day and try to slug the heck out of Webb and Davis, we're going to see a ton of K's and ground ball outs. The Cubs cannot swing for the fences, they need a coherent offensive game plan and they need to follow through on it.

Lots of other issues, but to me, these three are big.

DmL

by dmlichte on Oct 3, 2007 2:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes
Hitting adjustments. If Cub batters show up tomorrow and the next day and try to slug the heck out of Webb and Davis, we're going to see a ton of K's and ground ball outs. The Cubs cannot swing for the fences, they need a coherent offensive game plan and they need to follow through on it.

I agree with this completely.

phat

by phatass on Oct 3, 2007 2:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

cautiously optimistic
about zambrano.  i know he generally hasnt done well in big games in the past, but i just feel like he knows whats at stake here, and that he will bring a focused approach to the mound.  

just take it easy carlos, throw strikes, and we'll be fine.

Kevin Hart Watch: IP: 11 K: 13 ERA: 0.82 WHIP: 1.00 K/BB: 3.25 a productive farm system is a wonderful thing.

by kylejo on Oct 3, 2007 7:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agree with all of the above.
Z in his press conference yesterday said, "he was going to go the mound and let the game come to him." When has Z ever talked like this?  He spoke very calmly and seemed to be acting like he took the Superman cape off.  I think we will see the same Z we have seen in the last few starts...that would be great.

As for the hitting, this is a big test for Perry and how he prepares the batters.  It is rare that he has 3 days to prepare for a team, as even during the All-Star break, the players are not around.  In this case, Perry had access to all the players for the last 2+ days.

Let's see what kind of game plan he and the staff have put togehter against Webb and the D'backs.  It is now a question of game plan & execution!

GO CUBS!!

Prince Fielder...he is neither.

by LAcarl519 on Oct 3, 2007 8:32 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's now that plate discipline will be critical
The free swinging veteran sluggers have GOT to be cagier and they have to exercise their ability to work the count every time they are up to bat. They've got to model for the younger guys just how crucial this will be in games that we will live and die by.

Of course, if Alfonso sees a first pitch HR in front of him more power to him. No problemo. The issue is that he is always ready to swing away. That is his hitting style. I seem to remember that a couple years ago A-Ram used to be a tough guy to strike out, but as he's matured, that's not the case any more. The pressure is on him to produce and he's been ready to chase pitches that he didn't need to. DLee hasn't risen quite back to the form he had when he won the batting title, thanks to that Furcal assassin. While his AB's this year have also been productive, there have been more than several occasions in the season that had he been just a bit less ready to swing for the fence that he could have gotten a base hit to keep a rally going.

I have all the confidence in the world that they can assert this kind of focus because they've obviously been using it year round. It's going to be especially important now. I've seen our big guys work a count and get some great battling AB's. I am looking forward to seeing them do so and then paste the Baby Backs with their smart bombs.  

GO CUBBIES!

Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!

by cubnational on Oct 3, 2007 8:16 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

agree with most but
not on aramis, he still is incredibly hard to strike out.  he just gets so geared up in big at bats that it makes him a little more antsy it seems, and sometimes he'll expand the strike zone.  for the most part though i think he stays pretty disciplined, he just wants to be "the guy" so bad sometimes.  

for each full year he's played for the cubs though, he's never struck out less than 60 times and never more than 66 times.

soriano i am a little worried about as far as expanding the zone even more in the playoffs than normal, but without his agressiveness he wouldnt have nearly as many leadoff homers, so we've got to take the good with the bad.  his postseason line isnt too hot though, hopefully this will change as he's matured:

.233  .287  .336  

this is no time for negativity though, so here are aramis' postseason stats for 2003:

on-base: .365
slg: .591
4 homers in 44 at bats

Kevin Hart Watch: IP: 11 K: 13 ERA: 0.82 WHIP: 1.00 K/BB: 3.25 a productive farm system is a wonderful thing.

by kylejo on Oct 3, 2007 8:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Soriano
You wrote: "soriano i am a little worried about as far as expanding the zone even more in the playoffs than normal, but without his agressiveness he wouldnt have nearly as many leadoff homers, so we've got to take the good with the bad.  his postseason line isnt too hot though, hopefully this will change as he's matured:

.233  .287  .336"

Yet, Soriano had one of the biggest post season HRs ever at Chase Field (then Bank One Ballpark) late in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series. It appeared that his left field bomb off Curt Schilling would win the Series for the Yankees, until the D'Backs improbable 9th inning comeback against Rivera.

by jazzman56 on Oct 3, 2007 9:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

don't get me wrong fellas ..
im not trying to be negative .. if they wanna hit, they gonna have to swing. That's a given.

All I'm saying is that I hope they are going to be a touch more cautious then they have been thus far and work the counts more and make Webb pitch his arm off with good AB's. Even if it's small ball, we'll take it. Hopefully it will keep things in line and we'll manufacture runs any way possible.

That said, I would love them to crush the ball. Who doesn't want to see a Soriano HR or an A-Ram moonshot or a DLee triple?

Well, Next Year is here .. and Jack's century's gotta end some time .. GO CUBBIES!

by cubnational on Oct 3, 2007 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cubs in Four.
I agree with that. It's a nice motto or slogan for the week.

I work 2nd shift tomorrow, or I guess technically, later today. I get off at 10pm. I think I may take an hour of comp time so I can get my nest made in front of the TV and computer and round up all essentials, like beer and beer to get ready for the game. I am so excited! I can hardly wait! Go Cubbies!!!

fly your W flag Cubs fans!

by love the ivy on Oct 3, 2007 2:44 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

remember
the game starts between 9 and 9:30 chicago time.
Kerry Wood for closer!

by drewishdrewid on Oct 3, 2007 9:40 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Marquis...
What was the point of keeping Marquis on the roster if he was going to be skipped over for Zambrano if there is a Game 4???  They could have used his spot for another position player.
"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse

by ronsanto10 on Oct 3, 2007 6:26 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

as much as i dont like
when marquis takes the mound, i think hes more valuable as a long man and emergency starter than monroe or blanco would have been off the bench.  weve got enough bench guys.
Kevin Hart Watch: IP: 11 K: 13 ERA: 0.82 WHIP: 1.00 K/BB: 3.25 a productive farm system is a wonderful thing.

by kylejo on Oct 3, 2007 7:35 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Plus the guy is a pretty decent hitter
Nice to have a non-position player available who can swing the bat, bunt, and/or pinch-run if necessary, thereby saving the position players for the inevitable double-switches.
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Oct 3, 2007 7:42 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Predictions...
all these "Cubs should cruise" predictions are scaring the shit out of me. I get the whole confidence thing, but enough already. I'll be walking on eggshells all day - I just want them to play well, execute, cash in on the obvious scoring opportunities, and get it done.

The DBacks are scrappy, and if they get a lead, and build their confidence, it could be a long series.

That said, if they beat Brandon Webb tonight, their in complete control!!!

Theriot needs to be huge.

GO CUBS!!!

Eleven more W's.

by Hugest Canadian Cubs Fan on Oct 3, 2007 9:23 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My favorite quote from Miles' column today

"So isn't there anybody on the Cubs who will say his team is the favorite?

Apparently not.

"No, no," Soriano said. "If you think like that, you think what happened to the Mets. They (lost) 7 games in like two or three weeks. There's nothing here on paper. It's the players on the field.

It's always good to keep things in perspective.

'07 Postseason: Bears, Bulls... Cubs!!!

by stelmodad on Oct 3, 2007 9:38 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Cubs Fan Factor
Don't discount the very visible and vocal presence of A LOT of Cubs fans at these 2 AZ games to give our boys on the field a shot of adrenalin. I think the Diamondbacks and their fans are going to be quite dismayed tonight by sheer number of the Cubs partisans at Chase.

G O   C U B S ! ! ! !

by JFCubFan on Oct 3, 2007 9:43 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Is it time yet? :)
Shawn Johnson, Des Moines, IA, worlds greatest gymnast. 2007 All Around World Champ. GO SHAWN!!!!

by sue369 on Oct 3, 2007 10:00 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

It'll be here soon...
...now stop hitting your sister.... ...and stay on your side... ...don't make me come back there... ...I'm warning you.... ;-)
Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Oct 3, 2007 10:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dad, I
gotta pee really bad.
Shawn Johnson, Des Moines, IA, worlds greatest gymnast. 2007 All Around World Champ. GO SHAWN!!!!

by sue369 on Oct 3, 2007 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LMAO
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 3, 2007 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Game 1 Keys
  1. Plate discipline: the Cubs hitters have to be ready to shorten their swings and work counts, because otherwise Webb will induce a TON of groundouts.  If guys get on base, Lou needs to consider some hit-and-runs, too, since Webb is such a great groundball pitcher.
  2. Getting to the bullpen: I can't stress this enough - Webb is GOOD.  We need to get him out of the game.  That means making him throw a lot of pitches, even if we're not scoring. I know the DBacks have a good bullpen, but they're more beatable than Webb.
  3. Zambrano - I really think he needs to have it tonight.  I like what I'm hearing from him pre-game, but he needs to get through those first three innings quickly and confidently.  I loved his last start - worked quickly, taking just 21 seconds to strike out the first batter.  Focus, Z, focus.
  4. Playing for Game 4, if necessary: this one sounds oxymoronic after what I just wrote about Z, but Lou needs to decide quickly if Z has it or not. If Z's struggling early, it's far better to have a quick hook for this game (where Webb is on the mound) and limit Z's pitch count so he can pitch game 4 with as much rest as possible.  I'd have Marquis ready to go, and also Hart.

by Chadnudj on Oct 3, 2007 10:03 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

All great points...
especially plate discipline. You might not expect it from Soriano, but the rest of the guys need to work counts. DeRosa has become a notorious early count hacker. Lee, Floyd, Ramirez are pretty good, ditto Murton.

That said, I was reading the scouting report on Webb, and he's apparently a first ball, fastball guy.

Lou and Tram will have them prepared.

Eleven more W's.

by Hugest Canadian Cubs Fan on Oct 3, 2007 10:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree...
...Lou and Tram will have them as prepared as possible.  The question, though, is whether you can "change" something as fundamental as plate discipline, etc. when you're facing a guy like Webb (who has made a LOT of teams and guys look bad this year and last year).

I think this game 1 is truly key for the Cubs - they have to steal a game from Webb and then hope their other pitchers perform as expected.  Seeing Webb twice in this series bodes ill for the Cubs' chances, I think.

I think Lou tipped his hand to this, too, with his roster selections - lots of speed guys, who can allow him to hit and run some, and maybe beat out/break up double plays.

As for Cubs pitching v. DBacks hitting, I'd say we gotta keep Young in the ballpark, and Byrnes off the basepaths.  Those two guys (plus Clark, to a degree) need to be contained, especially Byrnes - he's a one-man rally waiting to happen.

by Chadnudj on Oct 3, 2007 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

agree
we really need to win this game.  They have to work the count.
Kerry Wood for closer!

by drewishdrewid on Oct 3, 2007 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good points
the pitching is obvious, Z has got to be good to give the team a chance against Webb.

With the hitters, they have to elevate their eye and make Webb bring the ball up.  Much easier said than done, but you can't hack away at those sinking fastballs down at the ankles.

This could be a low ball hitters night.  Soriano, Floyd and Jones (if it's on the inner half) drive the low pitch pretty well, and it's going to be interesting.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Oct 3, 2007 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I read an article yesterday
regarding how the Phillies left Adam Eaton off their playoff roster (I wish I could link to it but I can't find it).  Anyways, I think Eaton said something along the lines of, 'It's what the team had to do, but I'll still be cheering from the bench.'  Does this mean even if they're left off the playoff roster, players can still dress, sit on the bench, and come up with new handshakes? Just wondering.  Also, does anyone think the 'I'm a die-hard who would do anything for playoff tix but can't afford anything relatively above face' excuse work? B/C apparently my boss (a season ticket holder), who has been waiting for the highest bid on his own tix, said that reasoning went out the window a long time ago.
"In all the categories that you pay the most attention to, except the loss column, we're doing very well" - Jim Hendry

by Jayo525 on Oct 3, 2007 10:18 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I suppose it might work...
...if the holder of the extra tickets was a true blue Cubs fan, but don't hold your breath.  And that's not a slam of the the true blue Cubs fans, but more a reflection of this simple reality:

How does the holder of the extra tickets know you're telling the truth?

Sure, you probably are, but how do they know?  You could probably fill a game-thread size diary many times over with all the fake sob-stories people have heard over the years - not just about tickets, but money for a bus ride, something to eat, gallon a gas, cat/dog food, a place to sleep, etc.  I'm sure some of them are [unfortunately] legitimate, but how do you know?

I'd say your best bet is with someone who knows you - or someone who knows someone who knows you.  The believability factor doesn't work much these days when it's standing alone.

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Oct 3, 2007 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Completely Agree
n/t
"In all the categories that you pay the most attention to, except the loss column, we're doing very well" - Jim Hendry

by Jayo525 on Oct 3, 2007 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Go Cubs Go!
The NL Central, despite all the heat we take every year about being a lousy division, keeps sending teams to represent the NL in the World Series.

I'd say the Cubs have a GREAT shot!!!!

Man this is gonna be an awesome week!!!!

1-RUN GAMES = 23-22 | EXTRA INNINGS = 2-8 | HOME = 44-37 | NL CENTRAL CHAMPS!

by SackMan on Oct 3, 2007 10:40 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

random carlos marmol thought
listening to espn 1000, they thought marmol might be eligible for ROY?  Im not sure how many innings you need to pitch not to be eligible, i dont think he is, he pitched probably 70 innings last year.

anyone have further info on this?  hed likely not win, but if he was eligible, hed have a strong case.

Kevin Hart Watch: IP: 11 K: 13 ERA: 0.82 WHIP: 1.00 K/BB: 3.25 a productive farm system is a wonderful thing.

by kylejo on Oct 3, 2007 10:53 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yet another reason...
... I don't listen to sports talk radio. Stuff like this is easy to look up. You cannot pitch more than 50 innings the previous season (or spend 45 days on the roster before September 1), in order to be a rookie the following year.

Marmol did both last year. If the idiots at ESPN 1000 took about 10 seconds to look this up, they'd have had the right answer.

He's not eligible. Even if he were, there are three or four other very strong candidates this year (Tulowitzki, Braun, Pence, Gallardo).

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 3, 2007 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don'y know about everyone else...
...but I still get goosepumps and warery eyes everytime I watch the Ramierz walk off vs the Brewers. That clip will never ever get old.
"Things are startin to go our way."

by CubbieCurt on Oct 3, 2007 11:12 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

*watery eyes
"Things are startin to go our way."

by CubbieCurt on Oct 3, 2007 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
I used to play a lot of the dramatic '03 regular season finishes during the playoffs to keep me sane.  Remember the rainy night in '03 when Troy O'Leary hit the ball to the wall and scored Ramirez from first to tie the game? Here's to more fantastic finishes through October.  It's Gonna Happen.
"In all the categories that you pay the most attention to, except the loss column, we're doing very well" - Jim Hendry

by Jayo525 on Oct 3, 2007 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

doea anyone remember the
dude that complied all the cubs highlights (radio calls and tv clips) and said he would update them throughout the season.

If so what was the link??

thanks! and lets 'Slay the Snakes'

"I never said most of the things I said" ~ Yogi Berra

by BigZ 4 Cy on Oct 3, 2007 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Remember the time when Bobby Boucher
showed up at half-time at the Mud Dogs won the Bourbon Bowl?
"In all the categories that you pay the most attention to, except the loss column, we're doing very well" - Jim Hendry

by Jayo525 on Oct 3, 2007 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

LMAO
Awsome.

Great work.

by brfry81 on Oct 3, 2007 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey Al
Are players that are held off the playoff roster allowed to dress and/or sit on the bench during games?
"In all the categories that you pay the most attention to, except the loss column, we're doing very well" - Jim Hendry

by Jayo525 on Oct 3, 2007 11:13 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Yes...
... up to a point; I don't know how many are allowed, but I did read this morning that Adam Eaton, who was left off the Phillies roster, said he would be "cheering from the bench".
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 3, 2007 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

don't they wear
that logo overshirt thing that the managers and coaches sometimes wear?  No number, no name?  For the cubs, it's blue, looks a little like a large sweatshirt with cut-off sleeves and has a little cubbie logo under the front of the neck.
Kerry Wood for closer!

by drewishdrewid on Oct 3, 2007 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have one of those.
The sleeves are full-length. They're quite warm, actually, as they have sort of a fleecy lining.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 3, 2007 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe
Lou's arms are longer than the average bear's... :P
Kerry Wood for closer!

by drewishdrewid on Oct 3, 2007 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

In an interview
yesterday Eyre said they were given new jackets of some kind so maybe they will wear those.
Shawn Johnson, Des Moines, IA, worlds greatest gymnast. 2007 All Around World Champ. GO SHAWN!!!!

by sue369 on Oct 3, 2007 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

my stomach is in knots!!!
i cant perform my day to day duties under this type of stress. i feel like i'm the one starting for the cubs tonight. i'm pumpedddddddd. took vacation. bought a victory bottle! got my living room decked out in cubs everything-bobbleheads,posters, throw blankets,shirts,hats,hoodies,socks,mugs,cards!! plz cubs dont make put all that stuff back up crying. we can do this,i know we can. go cubs!! 2007 central division champs!!!
Here comes the nasty leftie to shut it down in the 9th......Clay Rapada!!!!

by cubsluver22 on Oct 3, 2007 11:29 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

my dog
has a Cubbie Fan bib.  She'll be wearing it, and I'll be wearing my shirt.  My GF won't be wearing a Cubs shirt unless I get her one, as the MLB order is backed up.  I may go to the store...
Kerry Wood for closer!

by drewishdrewid on Oct 3, 2007 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have class tonight till 9:30!
I'm so stressed but luckily we're in a lab so I'll have Gameday open and I'm gonna go buy a cheap AM Radio for the train ride home.  I can just see myself in the middle of lecture screaming "Soriano Leadoff!".  It is a Stats class though so maybe I can argue I'm just doing some very passionate research.
"In all the categories that you pay the most attention to, except the loss column, we're doing very well" - Jim Hendry

by Jayo525 on Oct 3, 2007 11:36 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

TBS High Definition Channel 219 on Comcast
I just checked and it's working. Crystal clear victory tonight!

by ElvisCole on Oct 3, 2007 11:45 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I take my victory
crystal clear, sunny side up, murcky, or full of controversy.  Dont really care, as long as we win.

GO CUBS.  Lets rock their rattles off!!

"I never said most of the things I said" ~ Yogi Berra

by BigZ 4 Cy on Oct 3, 2007 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is going to be a very long day.
I just got back from a work thing and I've got a whole bunch of other tedious work things to do and I can't seem to get up the motivation.

Maybe I'll just go take a nap and set my alarm for 8:30.

phat

by phatass on Oct 3, 2007 11:55 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Naptime :)
I think there are tons of people who wish they could just take a nap now; it would make the time go by faster.

by Madison Cub Fan on Oct 3, 2007 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Uh oh
Steve Phillips gave the Cubs MAJOR props on Mike and Mike in the morning. He had to rank the best lineups, rotation, bullpen, and Manager in the NL playoffs.

Cubs Lineup-3, Starting Pitching-1,Pen 1, Manager-1. I agree with this but Steve's assumptions aren't genereally close to what happens.

I would not fight Jason Kendall.

by TCobb1911 on Oct 3, 2007 12:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

even a stopped clock...
and all that...
Kerry Wood for closer!

by drewishdrewid on Oct 3, 2007 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cubs vs Red Sox
I am rooting for a Cubs-Red Sox Series.  If I can't see the games at Wrigley, I can see them here at Fenway.

Go Cubs!
Go Red Sox!

"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse

by ronsanto10 on Oct 3, 2007 1:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You have tickets at Fenway?
n/t
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 3, 2007 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tickets...
I will have them.  I think I can get up to 4/game by calling in some big favors.  I know I will get to see at least the 1st 2 games of the Series.  I might have an extra as my son probably can't go if it's a school night.
"Hey-Hey! Home Run! Attaboy Ronnie!" ~ Jack Brickhouse

by ronsanto10 on Oct 3, 2007 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

d00d!
it's the WORLD SERIES.  You take him ANYWAY!
Kerry Wood for closer!

by drewishdrewid on Oct 3, 2007 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

If we get that far....
... let's talk.
"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Oct 3, 2007 5:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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