The Fukudome Vigil

bill james has jones for .332/.433, in a platoon role (call it 450 ABs), simple runs created: (obp x slg x abs) 65.

assume fukudome can play center field, is not platooned, and collects a full 600 ABs in a full time role. take your conservative estimate, .360/.430 and fukudome's runs created is: 93 runs.

call the defense a wash (i suspect jones is a better CF than fukudome)... and fukudome's worth 3 full wins over jones.

add 150 ABs of matt murton (.370/.470) to jacque jones, 65 runs + 26 runs = 91 runs created...

the jones/murton platoon would've cost the cubs 3 million dollars. replacing it with fukudome will cost, let's assume 15 million dollars.

that's extra 12 million dollars should buy (in free agent dollars) nearly an extra 3 wins... let's call it two for simplicity (also allows the extra millions to be an investment on the brand, which is certainly at play).

For an extra two wins over jones/murton you'd want fukudome to generate 125 runs...

in 600 ABs, for a high obp, low slugging type guy that's about a .410/.510 type season.

for 115 runs (1 win better than murton/jones) you'd need a .390/.490 type season.

Because of the high obp/low slg scenario those numbers are higher than they need to be.

if fukudome's a win better on defense, a .390/.470 season-- your optimistic projection-- makes him worth the dollars.

As my sig line indicates, I'd love to see the Cubs starting outfield to be Soriano in left, Pie in center and Fukudome (assuming he's indeed acquired) in right. But I won't be surprised in the least if Pie starts the year struggling at the plate, so I do like the idea of platooning Pie and Murton in right. This would take some of the pressure off Felix and give him a chance to work up his confidence against right-handed pitching. He could even still come in late in games as a defensive replacement in centerfield with Fukudome moving over to right (and, thus, gaining some experience in the position he'll, I hope, eventually play full time).

For this reason alone, I'd like to see the Cubs hang on to Murton until at least mid-season. Then perhaps he could be packaged into some sort of difference-making trade down the stretch toward the post-season. I'd be a little sad to see Murton go but, as has been pointed out ad infinitum, he doesn't appear to have a long-term place with the Cubs.

I'm concerned that when he doesn't live up to unrealistic expectations that some have, that fans will treat him poorly, ala Jacque Jones.

I'm concerned that other Japanese players will see that and will shy away from signing with the Cubs in the future.

If Fukudome signs with the Cubs, it COULD be the start of a beautiful relationship with Japanese players.  I just don't want that relationship to start off with the fans banishing Fukudome to the couch to sleep.

Can we temper our expectations?

I liked Matty a couple years ago and wanted to see him succeed. But with Alfonz entrenched in LF, Fukudome would be a far-better overall RF than Murton. I just don't think Murton can play RF as well as LF and lets face it, he's an average fielder (and this includes the throwing) at best.

(btw... i'm obsessed, but not that obsessed... i just want to buy my wife a fukudome jersey with a no. 1 on the back for christmas so i can wear it in the bleachers)

I'll be in the Osaka area next year for a couple weeks and I can't wait to catch some games. I saw a couple weeks ago on one my my favorite TV shows, "Anthony Bourdain: No reservations" on the Travel Channel, he was in Osaka tasting all the different foods and experiencing all the different traditions of the culture involving Food and Wine and he attended a Hanshing Tiger game and it looked like a blast.

 Looked like a giant party and was night and day from MLB (except a game in the bleachers at Wrigley, but the fans there actually watch the game). While their team was ab, they would hoot and holla and blow up balloons and launch them into the air and bang on their loud sticks, but only when their team was up and would quiet down out of respect for the other team, or something like that.

Last I heard he was in Sacramento guiding youth ball...

As of now, the Pads have lost Bradley.

They haven't yet signed Cameron. (And, he will lose many games at the start of the season due to suspension, no matter who he signs with)

Giles will not open the season due to injury.

Geoff Jenkins hasn't yet signed, is probably fall-back if Fukudome goes to Chicago.

As of now, Scott Hairston is their only healthy, major league outfielder.

Now......THIS is bleak.

It's the same reason I like watching small school high school football here in Iowa... You'll have linemen and linebackers play the whole game playing both ways.  

Another topic for discussion... does anyone think that Z should focus less on knocking the ball out of the park and more on just putting the ball in play?  Maybe I'm overthinking this... Maybe he should just focus on his sinker.