2007 Community Projections: Derrek Lee

by Al Yellon on Feb 20, 2007 8:31 AM CST in Community Projections

Well.

This ought to be interesting. There are several different ways a projection for Derrek Lee could go:

Did he establish a new level of production with his MVP-type 2005 season? And can he sustain that?
Or, is his production going to revert to his pre-2005 level?
Or, is the truth somewhere in between?
Or -- and I don't even want to think this -- is his wrist injury something that will affect the rest of his career?

I posted this as a comment in the Barrett thread, but I will repeat it here in case you missed it. I'm going to leave each of these projection threads open for about two days. After that, whoever has offered to total up the individual projections, please email them to me. When I have all of them, I'll make a combined post of everyone's projections for all players.

Speaking of Michael Barrett, he now has his own rather snazzy-looking website. Among other things, he is quoted as saying, "I hope to be the last Cub to play in No. 8." (his uniform number) Wow, Michael. You think the Cubs are going to retire your number? We can only hope you'll be that good.

Here's my projection for Lee, and I'm going with the "somewhere in between" theory:

AB 601
R 100
H 179
2B 44
3B 1
HR 38
RBI 111
BB 85
SO 85
Line .299/.386/.564

Note for the next several days: if there's anyone out there who is better with Photoshop than I am, please email me -- I'll email you the photos of upcoming players who are new to the team and you can Photoshop a Cub uniform on them. Thanks!

Derrek Lee's career stats at baseball-reference.com

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Comments

Derek Lee

I'm a little more optimistic than Al. Say what? These numbers would make him the fourth best first baseman in the National League. Which is exactly what he is.

AB = 575
R = 105
H = 175
2B = 40
3B = 2
HR = 40
RBI = 120
BB = 90
K = 123
AVG = .304
OBP = .395
SLG = .590
OPS = .985

by tyger1147 on Feb 20, 2007 8:47 AM CST reply actions

Although... in my own defense

While my projections are more optimistic, they aren't absolutely ridiculous. Al's K totals are. Whoa! Haha--I win!!!

by tyger1147 on Feb 20, 2007 9:19 AM CST up reply actions

Is that too low, though?

Lee's K totals have been going down for several years. Plus, we no longer have a hackamatic manager.

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 20, 2007 9:28 AM CST up reply actions

True...

And it's not that ridiculous. But if you view his 2005 totals as a career high (which you do from your other projections), one should probably view the K's as a "career low". Even so, you're asking for a 22% drop from his "career low" MVP-type season, and a nearly 30% drop from what seem to be his career averages in about the 120's.

I do think he'll benefit with the lineup (although he has the same ARam behind him).

You actually seem to have a contradictory argument:
His K's have been trending down under Baker, but Baker made him (and the rest of the team) Sir Hacks-a-lot. Both may be true to an extent, but...

Obviously, he could find a new-found patience he's never, ever experienced before, I just don't see less than 100 K's.

But that's what makes this fun.

by tyger1147 on Feb 20, 2007 9:49 AM CST up reply actions

I will say...

I think I'd like my K totals down to 115, not 123.

by tyger1147 on Feb 20, 2007 9:50 AM CST up reply actions

I don't even need to calculate my projections!

Thanks tyger1147....that's nearly EXACTLY my predictions. Average slightly over .300, around 40 HR, a little under 600 AB's.....close to a .400 OBP.......

Good stuff...thanks for saving me the time....no kidding :)

Ladies and Gentlemen....Mark William Prior is BACK!!!! Yes, I am drinking the Kool-Aid!!!!

by TheBeerBaron on Feb 20, 2007 10:42 AM CST up reply actions

I like this one

I think this is what I'm going to do. Wait for some projections to be posted, and then find the one I like. Leaves you guys with all the hard work, but I still get to participate!

So, to the stat totaler, please double this one up.

"Looking for good signs is a good sign of delusion." - Me

by gravedigger on Feb 20, 2007 9:43 AM CST up reply actions

Wow, that's lazy of you.

n/t

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 20, 2007 9:54 AM CST up reply actions

I am an extraordinarily lazy person

I have no idea how I've made it this far.

"Looking for good signs is a good sign of delusion." - Me

by gravedigger on Feb 20, 2007 9:56 AM CST up reply actions

I guarantee...

you that I am much lazier than you.

UZI

"I don't do drugs. I am drugs." - Salvador Dali

by Ozgreeder on Feb 20, 2007 10:31 AM CST up reply actions

At least you made it to class today.

"Looking for good signs is a good sign of delusion." - Me

by gravedigger on Feb 20, 2007 10:44 AM CST up reply actions

Barely....

n/t

UZI

"I'm not pissed because you said 'gizzards', I'm pissed because my fingers are burning" - My wife, Christina.

by Ozgreeder on Feb 20, 2007 4:32 PM CST up reply actions

ok...just not sure about DLee.

G: 155
AB: 572
R: 105
H: 175
2B: 42
3B: 1
HR: 32
RBI: 103
BB: 80
SB: 15
SO: 101

Line: .306/.392/.551
(I'm assuming 2 HBP and 2 SF)

by cubby23 on Feb 20, 2007 8:54 AM CST reply actions

stating the obvious..

Don't forget that he has added protection in the line up. His numbers will really depend on who bats second.

Juuulie!!!Juuulie!!!Juuulie!!!

by fuzzycubfan on Feb 20, 2007 8:54 AM CST reply actions

Good point...

Does anyone doubt that D. Lee and A-Ram will come up with a man on second a lot more often this year than last year?

by HanOfTheBluegrass on Feb 20, 2007 9:48 AM CST up reply actions

It really depends...

...on where and how often Murton plays.

The Cubs got a .329 OBA from their leadoff hitter last year, .319 in the #2 position.

Speculation is that Soriano hits leadoff, Jones second. Soriano's career OBA is .325. Jacque Jones' is .328. ZiPS projects Soriano at .324, Jones at .320. PECOTA projects a bit higher for both players.

by dvdmgsr on Feb 20, 2007 10:03 AM CST up reply actions

Pfft. Stats...

;)

I still see the team starting a lot more productively this year than last.

by HanOfTheBluegrass on Feb 20, 2007 1:14 PM CST up reply actions

the protection myth

Oh, dear. The protection myth rears its ugly head.

Lee had a better year in 2005 with a weaker lineup than in 2004 with a stronger lineup. The only stat that may change is that he won't draw 23 IBB like he did in 2005.

G: 150
AB: 550
R: 100
H: 165
2B: 42
3B: 2
HR: 32
RBI: 105
BB: 80
SB: 10
SO: 110

Line: .300/.389/.558

by Tracy on Feb 20, 2007 9:52 AM CST up reply actions

A bit better than career averages

He's at an age where a power hitter comes into his own, but optimism about that is tempered by possible lingering effects from his injury.

AB 605
R 107
H 177
2B 38
3B 2
HR 33
RBI 109
BB 87
SO 118
Line .293/.384/.526

by dvdmgsr on Feb 20, 2007 9:57 AM CST reply actions

D Lee

Not really fully healed from the wrist injury. It shows up in a radical decline in power.

590 AB
160 hits
21 doubles
0 triples
15 HR
70 BB
.271 Avg
.348 OBP (Second best on team to Murton)
.383 Slg
.732 OPS (Third best on team to Murton and A-Ram)

by frustratedfan on Feb 20, 2007 10:00 AM CST reply actions

Whoa

You really are frustrated, aren't you? Those of you who call me pessimistic need to check with our friend FF here.

"Looking for good signs is a good sign of delusion." - Me

by gravedigger on Feb 20, 2007 10:11 AM CST up reply actions

yikes

I'm guessing you've predicted about 67 wins for the Cubs next year?

And you're probably not thrilled about the Soriano signing, what with his sub-.732 OPS.

In fact, Barrett, Jones, and Soriano will all be declining rapidly next year. What makes you think this will happen?

by Jason Rieger on Feb 20, 2007 10:22 AM CST up reply actions

Soriano

I should have said third best among players with more than 150 AB's with the Cubs this year. I am predicting a season ending injury for Soriano rather early in the season due to a misadventure while fielding in CF. Jones doesn't break camp with the Cubs (he's traded in the Spring when some team loses a key player due to an early injury) And I predicted a big decline for Barrett.

by frustratedfan on Feb 20, 2007 11:36 AM CST up reply actions

Hell what else is going to happen??

Will Mark Prior be hit by a train while waiting for the L on Addison?

Will Carlos Zambrano blow a wrist by emailing his numerous relatives who are all begging for money off of his new contract extension?

WIll Aramis Ramirez eat himself to death?

You're outlook on this year is beyond bleak, it's pretentious.

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 20, 2007 8:28 PM CST up reply actions

I know you're joking...

but this is the second time someone says Prior will have a bad accident. I'm paranoid about these things.

I just wanted to say that, but I'm certainly not going to stop anyone from saying them.

"I don't talk. I just let what I do talk for myself." -Johan Santana

by sparkles721 on Feb 20, 2007 9:28 PM CST up reply actions

Now Now..

If Prior does get hurt, my shoulder is available for crying on. However do be advised , there is a nominal fee associated with such services :-p I kid. Prior will be just fine, I like his chances this year for at least a slight comeback

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 21, 2007 12:02 AM CST up reply actions

Soriano and CF

The projection of an injury for Soriano in CF is really not all that unreasonable. Firstly, he is playing half of his games with a brick wall "padded" with Ivy. CF's, in particular, seem to hit walls pretty hard when going back on deep balls. A player with Soriano's lack of experience is likely to learn this the hard way. Further, CF is the position which seems to be involved in the greatest amount of player contact with other players. The CF runs into the RF, the CF runs into the LF, the CF runs into the 2b, the CF runs into the SS. An inexperienced CF is more likely to have such kinds of crashes. And they can result in injury. The list of CF, both good and bad, that have suffered injuries while fielding is legion. And based on his experience and that he is being asked to play CF for the first time at a major league level, an injury, sadly, seems like a reasonable projection.

The trade for Jones is also "reasonable" to the extent that the Cubs have a surfeit of outfielders and Jones seems less than happy. That some team has a key player hurt during the Spring is pretty much a given. It happens every year. And Jones has to be high on anyone's trading list.

As for Barrett, no real good reason for a decline, but I just feel it.

by frustratedfan on Feb 21, 2007 10:46 AM CST up reply actions

Even if his injury lingers a little....

15 HR? He's hit at least 21 HR in a season every season since 1999. You know, you power stroke is more your legs and shoulders than it is your wrist.

Ladies and Gentlemen....Mark William Prior is BACK!!!! Yes, I am drinking the Kool-Aid!!!!

by TheBeerBaron on Feb 20, 2007 10:45 AM CST up reply actions

About the Barrett site

It really is nice looking. But I hate designers who design flash-based sites. That site could have been made to look just as nice with PHP, and that would be able to load more quickly and in every browser. I wish flash would just die already.

"Looking for good signs is a good sign of delusion." - Me

by gravedigger on Feb 20, 2007 10:10 AM CST reply actions

Agreed.

n/t

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 20, 2007 10:19 AM CST up reply actions

Agreed

Another thing that bothers me is the dark color scheme they went with. I much prefer sites with a simpler, lighter look.

by VS on Feb 20, 2007 6:07 PM CST up reply actions

...Like BCB, for example

by VS on Feb 20, 2007 6:08 PM CST up reply actions

More Pop. More RBIs, lower BA

AB = 591
R = 103
H = 172
2B = 44
3B = 4
HR = 48
RBI = 129
BB = 101
K = 139
AVG = .291

Damn good year.

"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez

"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."

by The Jade Scorpion on Feb 20, 2007 10:43 AM CST reply actions

I hope you're right

I have him on my fantasy team.

I think that's too optimistic, however. No way he hits 48 homers. I'll hope for 40.

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Feb 20, 2007 4:36 PM CST up reply actions

You know Al

on that Barrett website there is contact info if you want an interview....: )

"Just say Smith or Jones again, it dont matter, none of this matters"

by ksucubbie on Feb 20, 2007 10:53 AM CST reply actions

Hey!

Excellent idea. I'll do that right now!

I Support Julie!

by Al Yellon on Feb 20, 2007 12:43 PM CST up reply actions

Tablesetters can't be as bad as '04

So I say more RBI's

594 AB
106 R
176 H
38 2B
2 3B
34 HR
124 RBI
72 BB
136 SO
.296/.372/.538

"The fat lady can't sing if it's not over!"- Rube Baker

by JD McCubbie on Feb 20, 2007 11:43 AM CST reply actions

RBI's should be way up.

My key stat with D-Lee is going to be RBI, because if Soriano and whoever bats second (DeRosa?) can provide him with more RBI chances than he had in the past, his numbers could skyrocket. There was nothing more frustrating than when he hit 46 home runs in '05 and barely cracked 100 RBI. He had to set the all-time record for solo home runs that year, and it was not his fault at all. That was the year of the Corey Patterson Titanic-esque leadoff experiment.

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Feb 20, 2007 11:57 AM CST reply actions

Big Year

AB-580
R-108
H-190
2B-45
3B-6
HR-43
RBI-130
BB-85
SO-115
AVE.-.327
OBP.-.413
SLG.-.648

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 20, 2007 1:18 PM CST reply actions

Lee

AB 550
R 100
H 173
2B 48
3B 3
HR 42
RBI 140
BB 85
SO 112
AVG .315
OBP .419
SLG .641

by tcjhawk on Feb 20, 2007 2:21 PM CST reply actions

Card

What Topps card is that? I hope it's not their official 2007 set. It looks awful. Kind of like the Donruss cards from the early 1980s.

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Feb 20, 2007 4:37 PM CST reply actions

I can't remember.

Found it in a Google search somewhere.

"[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

by Al Yellon on Feb 20, 2007 5:23 PM CST up reply actions

Card

It actually looks less early-80's Donruss and more like one of the ones you used to get as a promotion in cereal boxes during that same era. Like the Captain Crunch set from around 1985, or the Quaker Oats set from the mid-80s.

"Hello again, everybody. Harry Caray from Wrigley Field on a beautiful day for baseball."

by danimal15 on Feb 21, 2007 9:02 AM CST up reply actions

Lee's 2007 projection

G: 161
AB: 543
R: 112
H: 146
2B: 31
3B: 2
HR: 42
RBI: 112
BB: 66
SB: 12
SO: 102

Line: .269/.356/.565

According to the Chicago Tribune: "The Oakland A's are 32-0 when they have scored more runs than their opponents.

by Carlos on Feb 20, 2007 4:38 PM CST reply actions

Lee will catch fire again

and it won't go out, either. Which means he walks more. Part of that will be due to Aramis having a rough year I think :( Anyway, I expect a great OBP.

AB 575
R 129
H 188
2B 46
3B 2
HR 48
RBI 118
BB 103
SO 98
Line .327/.432/.664
OPS 1.096

by jcg996 on Feb 20, 2007 7:29 PM CST reply actions

Lee 2007

AB: 601
R: 103
H: 176
2B: 44
3B: 2
HR: 34
RBI: 95
BB: 90
AVG: .300
OBP: .354
SLG: .475

on hiatus

by Faith plus 1 on Feb 20, 2007 8:18 PM CST reply actions

Here's mine

Lee:
AB - 579
R - 100
H - 171
2B - 40
3B - 2
HR - 36
RBI - 110
BB - 85
SO - 99
Line - .295/.386/.558

by pageian on Feb 20, 2007 9:08 PM CST reply actions

d lee

ab 573
r 114
h 175
2b 47
3b 1
hr 33
rbi 103
bb 81
so 112
line .288/.381/.547

by buckmulligan on Feb 20, 2007 9:30 PM CST reply actions

My projetions

580 AB's
R's 110
Hs 179
2b's 43
3b's 1
HR's 35
RBI 117
BB 75
BA- .309
OBP-.437
SLG- .553
OPS- .990
A top 3 1b. Behind Pujols and Howard

by cubsfan2883 on Feb 20, 2007 10:31 PM CST reply actions

Lee and OPS over .900

Everyone may well be right, but is it realistic to project an OPS which is higher than all but one season in a players career when the player is coming off of a serious injury which has an impact on the batting stroke and which caused him to miss a year? I just think that the 2005 season has blinded everyone to Lee's likely numbers.

by frustratedfan on Feb 21, 2007 10:50 AM CST reply actions