2007 Community Projections: Alfonso Soriano

by Al on Feb 27, 2007 8:21 AM CST in Community Projections Comment 37 comments

Only nine men have hit forty or more home runs in a season in a Cub uniform: Hack Wilson, Hank Sauer, Ernie Banks, Billy Williams, Dave Kingman, Andre Dawson, Ryne Sandberg, Sammy Sosa, and Derrek Lee.

Will Soriano become the tenth? He hit 46 last year for the Nationals, with his home park being a fairly extreme pitcher's park, although he actually hit more HR (24) at RFK than he did on the road (22). That was his first 40-HR season, though he has had others of 36, 38 and 39.

I say he does it, and I say he also continues what he established a year ago, somewhat better plate discipline. He'll also become the second Cub to have a 30/30 season; for Soriano let's add SB/CS to the projections. My choices:

AB 640
R 110
H 175
2B 39
3B 1
HR 41
RBI 99
BB 55
SO 155
SB 30
CS 12
Line .273/.331/.530

Image photoshopped by BCB reader madtown

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Doesn't meet expectations

642 AB
173 H
108 R
39 2B
2 3B
36 HR
89 RBI
70 BB
147 SO
46 SB
20 CS
.269/.341/.504

"The fat lady can't sing if it's not over!"- Rube Baker

by JD McCubbie on Feb 27, 2007 8:42 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I WANT him to live up to that big contract but

I just don't see it. Forget last year. It's a career year and not likely to happen again at Wrigley or any other park no matter how advantageous it may be. Lou seems to have given his prominent base stealers a free pass in previous seasons so the SB's will be there, but lots of hitters have problems adjusting to all of the day games that come with playing for the Cubs. I really wish the Cubs could find a TRUE leadoff man so Fonz could hit 5th. That would be a nasty lineup.

"The fat lady can't sing if it's not over!"- Rube Baker

by JD McCubbie on Feb 27, 2007 8:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't know

While I do agree we need a real leadoff man, I don't think things will be as bad with Soriano as, say, they were with Korey manning the leadoff spot. I know a lot of people say last year was an fluke or contract year output but I don't think it was that big of an aberration. Sure, he probably won't his 46 homers again, but could he still reach 40? Of course, especially with all the extra help he'll get compared to his conditions last year (smaller yard, wind blowing out). I'm going to be very optimistic and say he's going to earn that contract of his for the next few years at the very least. I just don't see how a guy who had a 40/40 year last year and has seemed to put together a pretty solid and consistent career wasn't worth the money we gave him. Was it too much? Perhaps. Has he had any extended injury history or a complete dump of a season that indicates he's going to give absolutely nothing in return? No. I say he's worth the money and is perhaps the most solid investment we made in the offseason.

by hawkeyenation on Feb 27, 2007 9:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

As far as 40 home runs are concerned....

I would personally rather see him hit less home runs, and get more singles, doubles, walks, and stolen bases. What a concept for a leadoff hitter, right? If he hits 40 home runs great, but I hope he doesn't hit 40 homers with an OBP of about .300. If he can't get on base at a higher clip that that, I'd rather they drop him down in the order.

"Don't complain to me about the stormy weather, boys. Just bring the ship into port." --Steve Stone, September 2004

by ctcoff99 on Feb 27, 2007 11:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Easy to downgrade I see overall improvement

Soriano probably will start out slow as many BIG FA's do but I have confidence in Piniella's mental game which will allow him to work with Soriano's free wheeling approach and narrow his focus where he could have a big summer.

I could also say that by June he might come down in the batting order to 2nd or even 3rd protected by D-Lee. Offensively I could see Theriot eventually beating out Izturis and being the almost everyday SS. In fact the Cubs could engineer a trade also to bring up E Patterson to share 2B with DeRosa who platoons between all three in a typical Piniella system.

Having Theriot lead off and scrap would allow Soriano to move back and provide more power deeper in the order.

Defensively the same will be said for Soriano who will initially be shaky and emerge as a capable CF'er.

Best Harry moment: 'Hey there's Marla without her shorts on!'

by Ivy Walls on Feb 27, 2007 9:26 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

nice year, not quite up to 2006

676 AB
195 H
114 R
43 2B
2 3B
38 HR
97 RBI
81 BB
159 SO
41 SB
17 CS
AVG: .288
OBP: .365
SLG: .527

I think Gerald Perry makes a difference with his plate discipline ending with Soriano reaching a career high in walks.

by socalbob on Feb 27, 2007 9:55 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

A .365 OBA...

... would be great out of the leadoff spot.

"[BCB] is much better than... well, everything." -- gravedigger, January 21, 2007

by Al on Feb 27, 2007 10:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Here's mine

I expect Soriano to have a good year, not great but still good by almost any standards. Wrigley and a better lineup around him should help his numbers but I just can't see him hitting that many home runs again, I hope I'm wrong. Also, hitting leadoff will hinder his rbi opportunities, though hitting lower in the order might hinder his stolen bases. I guess in all I'm okay with him hitting leadoff but I'd rather have a more conventional high .obp non-slugger hitting leadoff and have Soriano slide down to preferably 5th in the order. I also think his defense in CF will be acceptable, occasional lapses and occasional brilliance but mostly just average. Anyway, here's what I think he'll do:

Ab's    630
Runs    105
Hits    173
2b's    39
3b's    3
HR's    37
RBI    95
BB    44
SO    135
Avg.    .275
Obp.    .322
Slg.    .522
Ops.    .844
TB    329
SB    21
CS 8

by pageian on Feb 27, 2007 9:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

question

do you see him regressing that bad as he walked 67 times last year and you peg him to walk only 44 times? Just curious as I tabbed him to improve in that same area of offense.

by socalbob on Feb 27, 2007 9:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, I think so

I think he'll regress from last year to closer to his career norms. I think that beside the fact that 2006 was probably his career year he had already pretty much established his norms, so I kinda feel that last year is going to be an abberation and not a new level of play. But, that said it is certainly possible that he became a better player as far as plate discipline is concerned and that he did establish a new level. If he does it again this year then next year I'll be happy to adjust my projections for him. I hope it's true.

by pageian on Feb 27, 2007 11:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also

When I did my projections I figured that it was about time for Soriano to stop running, or at least slow down quite a bit. Kind of like what Sosa and others did. It makes a little sense now that Soriano is already a 40/40 guy and has a big contract. What I didn't consider though was that he'll (supposedly) be batting leadoff all year so that may keep him running. I'd guess he'll run more than I thought he would but I don't see any need to change my numbers now, I'll go with them. Maybe he will move down in the order and not run as much since he might not see as much incentive in stealing bases as he used to.

by pageian on Feb 27, 2007 12:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Here goes:

651 AB
182 H
115 R
43 2B
4 3B
40 HR
100 RBI
61 BB
151 SO
44 SB
18 CS
Ave .280

"Bite my shiny metal ass!" -- Bender Bending Rodriguez

"Life is just one crushing defeat after another until you just wish Flanders was dead."

by The Jade Scorpion on Feb 27, 2007 9:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Perry as the hitting coach will help

AB 650
H 185
R 118
2B 42
3B 5
HR 44
RBI 97
BB 66
SO 142
SB 37
Avg .285
OPB .351

by cubfaninSTL on Feb 27, 2007 10:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Soriano

AB 35
h 10
d 2
t 0
hr 1
BB 1
AVG 0.286
OBP 0.306
SLG 0.429
OPS 0.734
SB 0
CS 2

Hurt in second week of the season in collision with Iztuis, ending season for both of them.

by frustratedfan on Feb 27, 2007 10:37 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Shoot

You stole my thunder. Only I had a three way collision adding Prior. For some reason Prior was out of place when the three of them collided. Out for the season, sorry to say...

"Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead"

by wild bill on Feb 27, 2007 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You are.....

an A$$hole. Plain and simple.

It is good to be home again!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Feb 27, 2007 11:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

No

he is not, he is a frustrated Cubs fan.

"Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead"

by wild bill on Feb 27, 2007 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

NO.....

if he is a "Cubs Fan" he would not want the future of this franchise (right or wrong) to go down for the entire season.

Frustrated or not, he is an a$$hole.

It is good to be home again!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Feb 27, 2007 12:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Future of the Franchise

The future of the franchise is a 31 year old player playing out of position, who is known primarily for his bat and yet his career high OPS+ is lower than a number of players career average OPS+? That's a pretty bleak "future". At best, he's the "present" of the franchise. The "future" of the franchise are all of the young players who have the chance to grow and get good - Patterson, Pie, Murton, Zambrano, Hill, Guzman, heck even A-Ram (who will not 29 until the middle of the season) and D Lee (who's also 31 and less dependent on speed and thus more likely to be valuable longer) are more of the future of the franchise. But hey, since it has been (apparently) unilaterally determine that we are supposed to be mindless cheering machines, here is my re-predicition:
Hits 212
Doubles 50
Triples 5
Home Runs 79
AB 620
BB 75

Avg 0.342
OBP 0.413
SLG 0.821
OPS 1.234
Steals 75
Caught Stealing 0
MVP

Better?

by frustratedfan on Feb 27, 2007 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He is....

the "future" of the franchise because the team has locked him up for the next seven years. That you cannot see that is laughable.

I agree with you that the young kids should be the "future" but that is not the reality of the situation.

It is good to be home again!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Feb 27, 2007 3:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Mindless....

mindless cheering machine = your projections for Murton.

It is good to be home again!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Feb 27, 2007 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Frustrated has

a point. If all the Cubs have projected numbers we as participates have stated, the Cubs will be in the world series in a breeze. I think his original statement was more tougue and cheek. Wish they had spell check on this.

"Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead"

by wild bill on Feb 27, 2007 7:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What....

are you trying to say????

It is good to be home again!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Feb 28, 2007 8:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not

sure of your age. And I do not know Frustrated at all, other than his comments on this site. But I will bet he has seen many a Cub teams break his heart time and time again, like myself. I believe like myself we all want the Cubs to be the toast of the league. So comments like wanting them to not succeed is just no so. Of course we want them to be the best. But as a veteran Cub fan, we tend to expect the worst. That might not be the correct thought, but we are kind of programed.

"Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead"

by wild bill on Feb 27, 2007 7:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You make an excellent point, wild bill.

As a veteran Cub fan, I tend to be paranoid as hell. I don't know how many times last year I said, "OK, this is rock bottom, it can't get any worse than this."...........But it did again and again.

I just feel so much better when I'm drinking beer.

by deadcatbounce on Feb 27, 2007 7:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also....

There is more to this "projection".

"Frustrated Fan" is against the signing of Soriano. He believes (and rightfully so) that this type of deal will stunt the progress of either Murton (his "pet") or Pie.

No matter how "frustrated" he may be, to think that an injury is the answer is ridiculous.

I stand by my comments.

It is good to be home again!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Feb 27, 2007 1:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

See...

... this is what I was talking about the other day.

You disagree with frustratedfan. That's your right, and it's so easy to express your disagreement without namecalling. I just don't understand why you felt the need to do that.

That's the ONLY thing I'd appreciate people not doing here.

Thanks.

by Al on Feb 27, 2007 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Injury

I don't want Soriano to get hurt, I EXPECT him to get hurt. CF is one of those positions where players, even experienced players, get hurt all of the time. (Rowand, Edmonds, Griffey, etc) The CF has to deal with the right and the left fielder and the shortstop and the second baseman. He is running toward walls and right at other players. Collisions happen -- a lot. And Soriano has NO experience at this position. I am sure Met fans don't want to see Pedro get hurt, but since his shoulder is hanging by a thread, its "reasonable" to expect him to get hurt.

by frustratedfan on Feb 27, 2007 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

"Reasonable"?????

What a joke.

It is good to be home again!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Feb 27, 2007 3:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Instead of Insults

Tell me why it is not reasonable to expect an inexperienced CF to suffer an injury. Again, look at the history of the position and the many CF's that have been injured playing the position - Pete Reiser, Fred Lynn, Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey, Jr. to name a few.

by frustratedfan on Feb 27, 2007 4:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It is....

no less reasonable to think that an experienced 1st baseman can get hurt (DLee). Or an experienced CF (Rowand), ect....... Injuries happen. Experienced or not.

While we are here, if you would like to talk about make believe pretend, I think you should go back and look at your Murton projections......

It is good to be home again!!!!!!

by timeforachange on Feb 27, 2007 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Injuries do happen

But it seems that CF are more prone to this, in part because of their speed and in part because they have more people that they can run into or run into them. And fielding CF is a big part of the equation. And knowing how to field does depend on experience. And Soriano has zero experience at playing the position. So, when he hits the Wrigley wall at full speed and gets a concusion or collides with Jacque Jones or Cliff Floyd or Izturis or DeRossa it shouldn't be a shock.

There's a reason why CF is a much harder position to play then left or right and taking a BAD corner outfielder and putting them in center is a truly bad mix.

by frustratedfan on Feb 27, 2007 10:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I

have time on my hands tonight to continue to respond. I think this avenue we all use is a great tool for all of us to express our opinion. I applaud frustrated for his thoughts. If you do not agree, and I am not saying I do agree, it is healthy exchange of ideas about our team. Have fun!

"Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead"

by wild bill on Feb 27, 2007 7:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

what is a joke

is that he has soriano out for the year, just gone. no attempted comeback. season ending. very rare. even nomar eventually came back.

i'm curious what the frustrated fanatic's projections are for soriano in 2008. would he be playing yet?

I don't care about the World Series, just be competitive.

by buckmulligan on Feb 28, 2007 1:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

didnt

Soriano hit .296 last year in the leadoff spot?? They moved him around alot in the order and thats why his avaerage was .277 or whatever it was but when he was finally placed in the leadoff spot, he hit .296 Id love to have him hot like that in the leadoff spot, its where hes most comfortable

by PrimeTime on Feb 27, 2007 4:18 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Soriano 2007

Soriano will enjoy hitting in the NL Central, both because of hitters' parks like the JuiceBox and GA as well as some pretty spotty pitching staffs. If he shows some patience, he'll walk a little more and K a little less. And he should be able to break 40 HRs again.

AB: 660
R: 110
H: 175
2B: 38
3B: 2
HR: 43
RBI: 88
BB: 60
K: 145
SB: 35
CS: 12

.265/.340/.524/.864

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by Jed Taylor on Feb 27, 2007 6:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs