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Back To The Drawing Board, Part Deux

The big news today, obviously, is covered in the game thread -- the continuing Mark Prior saga, in which he again looked not-nearly-ready for major league competition.

At cubs.com, Carrie Muskat saw it differently, complete with far different pitch counts than I had. I don't understand this -- for most of the game, I was standing right next to her. I'm not sure which game she was watching, but her statement that "Friday, his fastballs were clocked from 85-90 mph, primarily 85-88 mph", is unconfirmable, because the player the Cubs had sitting behind the plate with the radar gun was hiding it from view by anyone except himself. This wasn't the case when he had the gun on Jason Marquis; Marquis consistently hit 90 -- and Prior's pitches were NOT hitting the catcher's glove with nearly the authority that Marquis' were.

Anyway, that's water under the bridge, for now at least; I doubt we'll see Prior in any more major league action this spring.

His statement afterwards, when asked what was next:

"Go home and get some lunch -- I don't know," Prior said.

... is dryly funny, but serious too, because I suspect no one really knows what's next.

What's next for the ballclub may not be known either, as Angel Guzman, after throwing a decent first three innings, got lit up in the fourth, finishing with a seven-hit, five-run appearance with no strikeouts. I suspect that'll put him and Wade Miller once again about even in the fifth-starter derby. Guzman did have good velocity, though, and I don't think the Cubs should give up on him yet.

The rest of the team completed a 7-6 loss to the White Sox, after coming back in the 9th inning with a three-run rally off Bobby Jenks, who looks fat and had nothing today -- but then Carmen Pignatiello gave the Sox a run on two hits in the bottom of the inning, ending the game. Jake Fox had yet another hit today; he's hitting .600 for the spring and talk is he may be tried in the outfield, since his bat is something the Cubs could use, while his catching skills leave something to be desired.

Michael Wuertz threw today -- and reasonably well, allowing two hits in a scoreless inning, striking out one. This is good news; at this point the Cubs, without Kerry Wood for an indeterminate length of time, can use extra arms in the bullpen. I've always liked Wuertz' arm; if he could harness his control he might even be a dark-horse backup candidate for closer if Ryan Dempster falters.

Cliff Floyd showed today why he shouldn't be counted on for regular play, badly misplaying a ball in the first inning that helped the White Sox to two runs. The man can hit -- although he went 0-for-2 today with a walk -- but his outfield play, never stellar, was horrid today. Clearly, he is still being bothered by the heel injury he's rehabbing.

It was 98 degrees in the Phoenix area today, record temperature territory (and the earliest it has ever been above 95 here), 93 in Tucson (which often is several more degrees cooler than Phoenix, due to its higher altitude), and temperatures at this level are supposed to continue through Sunday. I'll be back in Mesa for tomorrow's game against the Padres.

Rich Hill will face Greg Maddux. That ought to be interesting, and you can follow on both WGN radio and TV. Carlos Zambrano goes on Sunday with John Lackey pitching for the Angels.

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I saw the game on TV...
 I thought Guzman looked good overall. A little off on the fastball, but really popping it, with a good curve. Didn't see much in the way of a third pitch though. That Cliff Floyd butcher job in the 4th(?) really messed with his stat line.

by Damen Jackson on Mar 16, 2007 6:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

RE: Prior
Please refer to ALL my posts from the last 5 months. Cut bait. Out. It's over.

by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Mar 16, 2007 6:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

LOL!
Your post just barely preceeded mine!

On the same page w/you Jazzman.

Seen Steve Cole?

Cardinals make me see Red!

by TheEman on Mar 16, 2007 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Al,
For the recap.

'specially on the Prior Soap Opera.

I am tending to starting to agree with several writers who profess that we should just DUMP both Prior and Wood, and aleviate all of the distractions and missing time. just move on FINALLY, ya know?

But the needle of "what if" is still in the old arm, and they are both "paid for" to varying degrees.

Re 5th starter, I have stated this before - my money is on Wade Miller now. He knows (knew) how to pitch in my opinion (I remember some GREAT games against the Cubs), and a tie will go to the vet. I was lookin' for a "slam dunk" from the Gooz, and instead it was off the rim.

Cardinals make me see Red!

by TheEman on Mar 16, 2007 6:51 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

The problem with Prior is...
... they owe him over $3 million this year. Plus, they have invested a tremendous amount of TIME in trying to make him right.

To just release him admits defeat or failure, and while that may be the ultimate resolution to this problem, I don't think management is willing to do that -- yet.

I think Prior stays in the organization, somehow, through the 2007 season. After this year, though... that's a very different story.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 16, 2007 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

While it might admit defeat, I'm not sure it...
admits failure. Mark Prior wasn't just any young pitcher with potential, he had the makings to be one of the greatest pitchers in the game. He had great velocity, great movement, pin-point control, and he was young. If it had been my choice, I probably wouldn't have been this patient with him, and I definitely wouldn't have put the Cubs in a position to be vulnerable without him for so long. Mark's pitching ability and health aren't the only things that have declined. Honestly, the interviews that I've seen with him, along with the quotes that I've read from him, have really changed my mind about Mark. His whole attitude and demeanor seem to have changed a lot, almost to an "I don't care" attitude.

Maybe he'll come out and have a great season or half-season. I doubt it, but being the optimist that I tend to be, I'll leave the possibility open. However, do you remember when the Orioles wanted Prior (with a prospect) for Tejada? Oh, yeah, and remember when the Phillies wanted Prior for Abreu? Hmmm...either one of those trades don't sound real bad at this point...

Ahh, finally...spring has arrived...

by Mark H on Mar 16, 2007 10:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I disagree Al.
Miller was in the lead before this outing and now he has a commanding lead.  Guzman has one option left so he's going to have to be a far superior pitcher than Miller to take that job away from Miller.  

Also, I didn't think he looked good as the first commenter said in this thread.  In 10 innings this spring he's struck 2 guys out.  TWO!  This is a guy whose pitches are easily seen at this point and he got hit hard today.  He was helped out by Blanco in the 1st inning as well.  

I like Guzman, but today's outing has made me realize that his chance of ever being a decent starter are about to come to an end.  He simply doesn't have it anymore.  It may be good enough for relief, but he'll never be anything but a 5th starter at best unless we see significant improvements and since his velocity was good and his curve was good, I don't see that happening.

by Maddog on Mar 16, 2007 6:53 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Commanding?
 Wow, that's an overstatement. I must've missed all these great starts Miller has had this spring. All I've seen is average, at best.

Commanding? There's 2 weeks left in Spring Training, plenty of time for Miller to get lit up or hurt.

by lemon17pie on Mar 16, 2007 6:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Maddog's point is...
... that Guzman has minor league options left, and so could be sent to Iowa. Miller has to make the team or be let go.

We'll see what happens in their two remaining starts.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 16, 2007 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Al...
 I really got the impression that Floyd was having serious mobility issues in left. What was your impression of his play in the field?

by Damen Jackson on Mar 16, 2007 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't go to this game...
... as I didn't want to drive to Tucson.

But from what I saw on TV, I agree with you.

I will say that even seeing him walking up to the plate to hit yesterday, he seemed to be still favoring the heel. He's not 100% yet.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 16, 2007 7:12 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But average...
Is what the 5th starter is all (or should be) about.

Rusch was NOT average.

Sean Estes was NOT average.

This has been our matrix the last several years.

Cardinals make me see Red!

by TheEman on Mar 16, 2007 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, commanding!
I suspect Miller had the lead before today for a couple of reasons.  The first being that Guzman has an option left so they can send him to the minors.  The second being that Guzman had NOT faced major leaguers in his previous appearances.  He worked later in games when, if there was a major leaguer or two in the lineup, that was about it.  Miller has been starting his 3 starts and has fared decently while facing all major leaguers.  Today Guzman got lit up the first time he faced them.  Yes, Miller now has a commanding lead.

A lead does not mean he's the choice, but it means that Guzman is going to have dominate like he's probably not capable of to take that spot away from Miller.  Miller can get away with a bad outing because he's a veteran.  Guzman can't.  

The race for the 5th spot is not close.  

by Maddog on Mar 16, 2007 10:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Talk to me after Miller's next start.
 and we'll see just how commanding of a lead he has for the 5th spot. It's a fickle sport this here baseball.

by lemon17pie on Mar 17, 2007 2:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Guzman might
be yet another example in a long line of minor league pitchers that will never cut it in the majors. It confirms once again why all teams are always looking for starters. All the promise in the world, but that world changes when they have to tackle the bigs. I like him as well. You make have a good point that his ball is easy to see. If so, can good coaching correct this?
"Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead"

by wild bill on Mar 16, 2007 7:15 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fox to the OF?
Wow, that really doesn't make sense. They're OF is pretty much set up with Soriano,Pie and Murton for the forseeable future and to change him now and learn a new position, especially coming from a position the Cubs are terminally weak at is confusing.

 He can't be any worse defensively than Barrett is behind the plate, that's for sure. I've seen Fox play many times actually and really like his approach at the plate and think he could be a very solid hitting Catcher.

by lemon17pie on Mar 16, 2007 6:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Fox...
... is considerably worse than Barrett behind the plate -- plus, he has never had a major league at-bat or game.

I wasn't suggesting Fox could make the MAJOR LEAGUE team as an outfielder -- what I heard is that he could be tried there at Iowa or Tennessee, to give him a better shot at making the major leagues with versatility, sometime in the future.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 16, 2007 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Best route for Fox to take
The best route for Fox to take is to prove that he can stand in LF or at 1B.  That would position him to the 3rd catcher type we used to occasionally see before 12-man rotations became the norm.  

Examples of these types of guys are Lloyd McClendon (80s) and Jose Morales (Expos, Twins, Orioles in the 70s).   They could hit off the bench against LHP, and they could squat behind the plate for 6-7 innings a year.

by Invalid User on Mar 17, 2007 9:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And...
... both of those guys were fairly late arrivals in the major leagues. McClendon had his first good year (with the Cubs in 1989) at age 29. Jose Morales, who became one of the best pinch-hitters in ML history, was 30 (in 1975) before he finally made it. Craig Wilson is a current example of this sort of player.

This is the sort of career Jake Fox could have if he can make that sort of shift. It's harder to do now because of 12-man pitching staffs -- many teams don't have room for a player like this.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 17, 2007 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

And don't forget
Hector Villanueva!
"I lof to hit de home ron."

by Tekboy on Mar 17, 2007 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes, he is worse...
Than Barrett behind the plate . ..

Look it up - Scout.com, ivytalk.com, etc. Do you think with the crappy Geo Soto as their current "3rd" in the depth chart, if he had any "D", with his bat, there is a reason he isn't getting the chance?

He also caught R.Hill @ Michigan.

I wish he had some "D". He is really bad.

Cardinals make me see Red!

by TheEman on Mar 16, 2007 7:00 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

On the upside
With Prior and Wood, we have been told not to count on them this year anyhow. Can someone answer this. Does Prior have options left for the minors?
"Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead"

by wild bill on Mar 16, 2007 7:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

American Legends
Since 1906 how often have Cub fans said "back to the drawing board"?

http://www.americanlegends.blogspot.com

by JMEnglish on Mar 16, 2007 8:37 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hey
Al was right and Carrie Muskrat either fabricated her version on purpose or is simply irresponsible

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=A9G_e77uTftF2dIA6x0RvLYF?slug=ti-mlb_07_prior031607&prov=y hoo&type=lgns

"Just say Smith or Jones again, it dont matter, none of this matters"

by ksucubbie on Mar 16, 2007 9:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

She's too...
hot to lie like that.

UZI

"I'm not pissed because you said 'gizzards', I'm pissed because my fingers are burning" - My wife, Christina.

by Ozgreeder on Mar 16, 2007 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Muskrat Carrie
None of the MLB writers are "fair and balanced" they are there to spout the team propaganda.  That said though Muskrat is the same person who said last year that Prior was having a good spring last year, even though she had not seen him toss in those simulated games.

by DrCrawdad on Mar 17, 2007 12:24 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re
Cleary, the Muskrat is part of the 'fair and balanced' Fox Noise consortium.  Her ideology shapes her perspective and she probably truly believes the PR spin she spews out.

She's not a journalist by any stretch of the imagination.  She's a paid hack who keeps her job only because she pleases her masters.  Journalists have credibility.  The Muskrat has a free pass to watch Cubs baseball and she's not going to do anything to jeopardize it.

by Jed Taylor on Mar 17, 2007 8:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good point
"The Muskrat has a free pass to watch Cubs baseball and she's not going to do anything to jeopardize it."

I can understand that and heck, if I were offered a paid gig writing for my favorite baseball team - press box, access to the team and all the other perks that a "writer" gets - I'd take it, gladly.

I don't know if I'd want to be a staff writer for the Toledo Mudhens, but I'd love to do it for any MLB team, even if that meant ...

Muskrat, Crawdad is coming for your job!

by DrCrawdad on Mar 17, 2007 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ah, but the Mudhens
are always a fun team to watch.  Especially the yearly game against the Tigers.  I think they beat the Tigers for about 5 years in a row.  Up here, we always used to joke that the two teams should switch places; the minor leaguers probably could've had a better record than the major leaguers in 2003.

Alas, I do understand your point.  Minor league reporting doesn't nearly have the glamor of the majors.

MCDONOUGH!

by secdelahc on Mar 17, 2007 10:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Prior
Prior gave us nothing last year...and as I understand it, didn't he file for arbitration asking for a significant salary increase before the 2007 season started? I thought that sucked at the time, and now on March 16th I really think it sucks.
Hey Lou, we're long overdue.

by deadcatbounce on Mar 16, 2007 9:16 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

My take on Guzman:
  1. Angel has good stuff. There's no doubt about it. He has a great fastball and curve, which he put on display throughout the game.
  2. He has some definite control and command issues. He left his curve too far up in the zone to be effective against big league hitters.
  3. As we all saw, he got numerous hitters down
0-2, and he couldn't put them away.

Largely, I believe his inability to put away hitters was due to a bad choice of 0-2 and 1-2 pitches and location. There were many times when he pitched the same pitch 3 times in a row, and he pitched them in the same location. If you throw two 83-mph curves low and outside for strikes 1 and 2, use that good heater up-and-out of the strike zone. Then come back with a low slider or curve. I know it's ST, and he may be throwing 3 curves in a row in order to find a consitent release point, but I don't think that's what he was doing most of the time.

Also, there were several time when he missed badly with his fastball, leaving it over the heart of the plate.

Overall, he's a kid that has great stuff and potential. He needs to stay healthy, and work a lot on his location and pitch selection in different situations. I think he'll start at Iowa, but we'll see him in Chicago this year.

Ahh, finally...spring has arrived...

by Mark H on Mar 16, 2007 11:05 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Well put Mark H, BUT
As several have said during ST, he did some of these SAME things last year when going 0-7.

There's a point when he is just going to have to avoid the "Novoa Complex" of not finishing batters off with 2 strikes, and not being to get the 3rd out.

He does remind me of Juan Cruz in his early days w/the Cubs.

The guy had the same problems.

Cardinals make me see Red!

by TheEman on Mar 16, 2007 11:55 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the weather report, Al.
Ah Phoenix.  It's not the heat, it's the air pollution.  But it's a dry pollution.

by TR on Mar 17, 2007 2:42 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Where are all the people
that complained that the Cubs didn't need more starting pitchers and they were going to delay the "kids"?  

Where would the Cubs be right now without Lilly and Marquis?  Instead of trying to find a 5th starter, they would be looking for a 3rd, 4th and 5th.  I'm not going to say that the deals were bargains, obviously they weren't but I'm glad they have them now.

Are any of you out there?  What do you say now?      

by rlpete on Mar 17, 2007 9:06 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I guessing

that they are too busy writing their fan letters to Hee-Seop Choi and Jason DuBois to post.

by salparadise23 on Mar 17, 2007 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re
Two further additions to the Dusty Baker I-can-develop-young-players HOF.

by Jed Taylor on Mar 17, 2007 2:49 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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