Why (Certain) Stats Mean Nothing

Carlos Zambrano warms up before Sunday's game in Tempe. Photo by Al
TEMPE, Arizona -- See, I know headlines like that get some people's blood boiling, and it's not what you think.
But I got you to read this far, right?
Look at Carlos Zambrano's line from today's game -- 5.2 IP, nine hits, four earned runs (6.35 game ERA, 1.59 game WHIP) and it doesn't look all that good.
But there is a story within that you wouldn't know unless you saw the game, a 4-0 loss to the Angels. Z gave up three singles in the second inning, loading the bases -- one of those singles was a ball that was knocked down by Ryan Theriot, but he couldn't make the play on Howie Kendrick, who runs very well. After Brandon Wood singled to load the bases with one out, Chone Figgins hit a ball down the line that Daryle Ward couldn't make a play on.
Result: ball in RF corner, bases cleared, triple for Figgins.
Now does any one of you think that play would have happened that way if Derrek Lee had been playing first base today?
Of course not. Lee, one of the better-fielding 1B in the game, would likely have speared the ball and at the very least gotten one out, and perhaps started an inning-ending double play. Had that happened, Z might have gone through the first six innings giving up what John Lackey did -- nothing. Lackey was dominant, giving the Cubs only two singles (one by Theriot, the other by Cesar Izturis); Z gave up only two other singles until he ran out of gas in the sixth inning, when the Angels scored their fourth run on three hits -- including yet another ball that Alfonso Soriano seemed to not see very well off the bat, which went for a double over his head.
And it was just then that I was thinking, "Soriano seems a lot more comfortable out there today", as he had made several nice plays, and appeared to be reading the ball pretty well. Actually, I think he's going to be just fine. Each day does seem to be getting better for him out there, and remember the man has been playing CF for all of two weeks' worth of actual competition.
Back to Z for a moment -- one of the best things about his day is that he didn't walk anyone. I don't have an exact pitch count, but it was low enough through five innings that Lou Piniella let him go out there for the sixth, which I don't think was in Lou's original plan. Z struck out Wood (his fourth K) for his final batter before Scott Eyre came on and ended the sixth with a comebacker. Eyre also threw an uneventful seventh before giving way to... Hector ("Not Danny") Almonte.
You're saying, "Who?" Well, so was I. No one at the game seemed to know who the righthander wearing #77 was, either. I had to look him up -- here's his undistinguished major league record. He's 31 and last appeared in a major league game in 2003, for a team that no longer exists, the Expos.
He had a 1-2-3 inning, but why? Michael Wuertz and Roberto Novoa, two pitchers who the Cubs might actually need (particularly Wuertz) were sitting on the bullpen bench. And it didn't appear that either one was going to get into the game even if the Cubs had tied it up -- warming up at game's end was Carmen Pignatiello.
Well, at least this defeat was fast and merciful -- two hours and thirteen minutes, on another hot (91 degrees at gametime) day, in front of the usual half-Cub-fans-at-a-road-game crowd.
I ran into Rob from 6-4-2, the Angels/Dodgers combo blog, whose wife Helen is a big Cubs fan. She was around somewhere, but didn't come out to the lawn to say hi. I'm expecting to see them sometime later this week back at Mesa -- and Rob, if you were thinking I wasn't recognizing you at first, I wasn't, because you looked quite a bit different than the last time I saw you two years ago!
I'm not worried about the offense -- sometimes, you just run into a good pitcher having an outstanding day, and that's what John Lackey was doing with the Cubs today. The Cubs, who have been fairly patient hitters this spring, finally drew the game's only walk with two out in the ninth (Ryan Theriot) off Darren Oliver (yes, that Darren Oliver, who the Cubs released in 2005 after he had three really bad appearances for them at Iowa, after which he became a reasonably effective middle reliever for the Mets last year).
Finally, although the folks in Mesa have improved the souvenir concessions considerably this year, they could take a lesson from the Diablos, who run the show in Tempe. A program nearly identical in size and content to the $5 book they sell in Mesa... cost one dollar.
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31 comments
Comments
Bite your tongue Al.....
by PriorandAramisfan23 on Mar 18, 2007 6:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, maybe not.
by Al on Mar 18, 2007 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade throw-in
Otherwise, it's kind of pointless - let the outfielders get some practice chasing warning track fly balls served up by "El Gasolino" Novoa.
by Invalid User on Mar 19, 2007 8:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You might be right...
by Al on Mar 19, 2007 9:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it...
by cwyers on Mar 19, 2007 9:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No walks for Z is encouraging
by gjdow on Mar 18, 2007 7:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Riddle me this
If the Cubs see Pie as the future CF of the Cubs, why not put Soriano in RF and Jones in CF? And if you decide to trade Jones you can simply insert Pie in CF and Soriano doesn't need to move. And the fact that Jones had played CF before makes this even more perplexing and he'd probably do at least as good a job as Soriano in there. I just don't get it. Any of you do?
Luis
by Luis on Mar 18, 2007 7:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Very good points.
by wicubfan on Mar 18, 2007 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because...
Jones has played CF before ... but not on a regular basis for six years. He'd be almost as much a novice out there as Soriano is.
by Al on Mar 18, 2007 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's exactly my point
Luis
by Luis on Mar 18, 2007 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, but isn't right field actually a little more
by buckmulligan on Mar 18, 2007 9:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt it
Luis
by Luis on Mar 18, 2007 10:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts on this...
by VandalayIndustries on Mar 19, 2007 9:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Programs
The programs are that cheap at Angels Stadium too.
I can't tell you how much Arte Moreno has done to improve the experience of going to Angels Stadium. He gets a lot of credit for lowering beer prices, but he's done a lot more than that. (To be fair to Disney though, Disney did do a great job of keeping the place clean. They didn't do a lot else right though.) And by doing all this, he's turned the Angels from an afterthought in the SoCal market to something close to parity with the Dodgers. Sure, the World Series that Disney left him helped, but the crowds haven't gone away since, even without a World Series.
(Heck, I used to go to Angels Stadium under Disney to get some peace and quiet.)
I realize that Moreno took over a pretty unique situation (an undervalued and under-marketed team in a major media market) but I really wish other owners would learn from him. Since he took over the Angels, they've never drawn under 3 million (and usually around 3.4 million) whereas previously, they'd never drawn more than about 2.5 million. This really isn't much different than how Walter O'Malley built the Dodgers in the 1960s. Make sure every fan can afford to have a great time at the ballpark, and they'll beat down the door to get in.
by Josh77 on Mar 18, 2007 7:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No kidding he's changed that team...
Couldn't see any outdoor advertising for the Dodgers. Perhaps they are doing TV in the LA market, but those Angels boards are everywhere.
by San Diego Smooth Jazz Man on Mar 18, 2007 11:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take that as a compliment
by scareduck on Mar 18, 2007 7:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It was a compliment.
by Al on Mar 18, 2007 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Amazing stats
I just picked Big Z up for my fantasy team -- Cy Young, World Series MVP -- it all looks good to me.
by This is our year on Mar 18, 2007 8:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It wouldn't be unheard of
On a separate note, I am really glad to hear Prior is coming back for another outing this week. A good bit of me is expecting him to falter, but how awesome would it be if he came out with a 90 mph fastball and could give up no more than 2 runs in 5 innings. Kinda sad where were at with him, but I would be pumped if he could show some progress. I just don't see the upside to Miller or Guzman that is there if Prior could get in a groove.
by Kyle Turney on Mar 18, 2007 10:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Prior and Z
Z: I'll get really really excited about Z when he learns to change speeds with his fastball so he can get lazy grounders instead of so many foul balls. Until then he will be a very very good pitcher, but not an ace.
Luis
by Luis on Mar 18, 2007 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm
As for the comments about Z not being an Ace, those comments are preposterous. If you look at the stats that mean something, he's one of the best pitchers in the NL and has been for several years. Assuming that you use a "reasonable" definition of Ace, he's an Ace. (Of course if you are going to use an insane definition of Ace, you are right. But then you would add nothing to the discussion. You can also define a "win" in a war as having troops on the ground being shot and killed for many years after the win. But then, as I noted, we are talking about sane people).
by frustratedfan on Mar 19, 2007 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's see
As for Zambrano, here's the deal: do you know why Zambrano has never won more than 16 games? It's because he can't finish games or get through the 8th inning consistently. And the reason for that are his insane pitch counts. That's what keeps him from being a true ace. A guy who flirts with 100 pitches around the 6th inning, and has to be taken out games most times because of pitch counts instead of performance, is not a true Ace by my standards.
Luis
by Luis on Mar 19, 2007 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zambrano
Go ahead and pretend Zambrano's not an ace. As I said, if you are going to use an insane definition of the term, you are "right" but your words have no meaning.
by frustratedfan on Mar 19, 2007 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cardinals
by KedzieKid on Mar 19, 2007 8:44 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
pitches
by danimal15 on Mar 19, 2007 8:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn't get an accurate pitch count.
by Al on Mar 19, 2007 9:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was 81
by danimal15 on Mar 19, 2007 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yabbut...
81 in six innings, essentially? Let's call it 85, if he could have gotten the last out on four more pitches.
That's 14 pitches per inning... which would be 126 in a 9-inning game. I don't think that's too outrageous.
And you know as well as I do that despite the way you'd like it to be, the Cubs aren't likely to have more than ten CG's as a team this year. Only Cleveland (13) had more than nine in 2006.
We could argue forever (and we have) whether this is a good thing or not. But it's reality. If Z throws 7 or 8 innings every time out, he's doing his job.
by Al on Mar 19, 2007 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Standards and Reality
by frustratedfan on Mar 19, 2007 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zambrano
by danimal15 on Mar 19, 2007 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thread
In other words, delusional.
by frustratedfan on Mar 19, 2007 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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