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"food for thought" and 39% of the season

Piniella keeps showing he can adjust and stick to his principles, 'I like playing veterans down the stretch' or the old adage 'going with those who brought you to the dance'. Kendall is a fair offensive catcher with obvious liabilities but not being able even threaten throwing out runners attempting to steal could be a real show stopper. Well interestingly today all three Chicago papers the qouted him regarding Geovany Soto was whether Piniella was going to play him more down the stretch as he is giving the Cubs both a big bat in the bottom of the order and strong defense. (It was not even mentioned that Soto might make the playoff roster where he is batting in September 10 for 19, Brenly so obviously noted during yesterday's broadcast that Blanco has not appeared since Sept 3rd and with only 4 appearances since being recalled on Aug 22 going 1/10. Kendall appeared to be wearing down as he was letting far too many balls passing by and the throw on Saturday really came back to haunt the Cubs. I think we are seeing Soto emerge as the everyday catcher sooner than later.

And no wonder Kendall among other regulars are wearing down, the Cubs have played 62 games in 63 days the last off day was August 27th, (now finishing up on a 24 game stretch in 23 days), where prior to that late August date the Cubs previous off day was Monday August 13th and then we have to go back to Monday July 23rd for an off day. During that stretch Kendall has started 53 out of 62 games, even worse is the fact that Kendall started all but 4 games in August. I am seeing Lee hobbling about, Theriot seems to be fraying and now is reportedly showing his weak ankles and DeRosa is also showing some tire. Since July 24th the Cubs have played 39% of the schedule with just 3 days off.

Lastly we are seeing some performances starting to fill in some of the final roster spots for the expected playoof roster come October.

I think Wood has cemented his spot with his two-game performance and overall return. Eyre seems to have recovered from a early season horrific slump although Lou is still judicious in using him in critical situations. I think the Cubs might contemplate going with 10 pitchers and 15 position players to the surprise of many and what I think was a mistake by Baker & Co in '03. They then went with 11 pitchers but had many of them simply watch from the bullpen against Florida trying to ride Prior and Wood. If you are going to ride your starters then why have 7 relievers on the roster?

If the Cubs go with 6 relievers that would probably mean leaving off Ohman, Marshall and Trachsel, where I think Ohman is the man on the bubble. Marshall and Trachsel have no relief experience and you can't rely on that during a pressure moment. In fact if the Cubs went with a 3-man rotation in the playoffs I think Marquis is better suited as a reliever than Hill.

Position players who have cemented their spots have been Murton, Pie, Monroe and again probably Soto. (Cubs could put Blanco on 15-day DL now and still recall him for the playoffs). On the bubble then is Cedeno & Fuld where Ronnie finally got a big RBI hit but Fuld showed he can field RF late in the game and has a strong arm. (Boy this could really teach E-Pat to get to the park early.) Murton has hit 6 HR's in 28 hits in limited action since returning in late July, he will go for certain. In his 20 starts since his recall (although 14 were in early to mid August), he is now using every opportunity in an occasional start. Pie the designated late inning defensive or pinch running substition is 2/7 in September (but just missed a HR yesterday and drove a double the other day), is now showing he is beginning to drive MLB pitching. Monroe shows me he can hit the ball real hard and can field his position acceptably in spot platoon duty.  And Soto, well maybe he should have been up here since we traded Barrett. That leaves open the  25th player.

It really is coming down to Ohman as a LOOGY or early reliever and either Fuld or Cedeno. Ohman could give you 1, 2 or even 3 outs in a short series (or be a goat). But Fuld could come in a close game when you have pinch hit your lumbering left handed bats late (Ward or Floyd) and play what appears to be a good. Yet you also have Pie for that. Cedeno is insurance for Theriot who now is showing signs of wear and tear with his historic gimpy ankles. Cedeno has more [albeit unsuccessful] big league experience. I think we are going to see Cedeno play a few more important innings to see if he is the 25th man. That is my guess, he can run about as good as Fuld but man a position that we have no other good choices. Finally Fuld is only a AA player and unless he does something spectacular which having the opportunity is limited to none I think he goes home knowing he is competing for a 5th OF spot next year.  

I also think in Piniella's eyes he sees his top four starters getting him to the 6th inning everytime out. This sets up his bullpen where he can get along with 6. In a short series, especially with the prospects being AZ or SD the starters will probably be unlikely bombed early so the game will come down to  offensive/defensive situational rosters.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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Nothing from nothing here......
...but whatever happened to/with Neal Cotts?
Santo Forever!

by BeerCub on Sep 17, 2007 12:23 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Cotts
was sent down to Iowa and then he got hurt.  

Kasey

by kaseyi on Sep 17, 2007 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nothing and Cotts
Cotts has been disappointing. He didn't stick with the club and was sent down to work as a starter, that didn't work out so they put him back as a reliever to marginal returns.

Most telling was the fact that when the Cubs sent down Ohman they brought up Pignatiello as a lefty. Cotts was not even turned to. Then when the rosters were expanded the Cubs brought up Gallagher, Hart and Ohman.

Nothing(?) with all the belling aching about the pennant race making them nervous to having heart attacks, to the moaning towards this or that miscue I think realizing that almost 41% of the season in the books the Cubs have had just three days off. And as for Kendall he has caught 85% of the time. These are important things to know.

Milw-09-23-98--Brown in for defense--bases loaded--flyball--HE DROPPED THE BALL!!!NO NO NO, cubs lose 8-7

by Ivy Walls on Sep 17, 2007 1:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fuld...
... reminds me a bit of Adam Greenberg, who also might have made a decent 5th outfielder.

Don't forget Angel Pagan. If healthy, he could be the 25th guy.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Sep 17, 2007 12:59 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

ABSOLUTELY true abstractly what of rehab?
If he returns and the Cubs have two or three games after clinching (unlikely) he could get some playing time to determine whether he can go or not.

No this is unlikely because of all things you want in the playoffs are 25 fully ready players. Pagan would be perfect, above average defense, switch hitter with occassional power, great foot speed but he is still recovering.

I think we might see old Ronnie get a playoff roster and go up to bunt or pinch run or something.

Overall the bench has good speed right now; Pie, Fontenot, Monroe, Cedeno or Fuld or Pagan(?)

Some power; Ward, Monroe, Murton, Soto(?)

Defense; Pie, Monroe, Soto or Blanco(?), Cedeno(?), Fuld(?)

Versatility; Monroe, Pie, Ward

Milw-09-23-98--Brown in for defense--bases loaded--flyball--HE DROPPED THE BALL!!!NO NO NO, cubs lose 8-7

by Ivy Walls on Sep 17, 2007 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

More on Fuld
A 25 year old OF'er can play all three positions, good OBP, doesn't strike out much, played AAA and AA, last year made the Florida Advanced A league All Star team. Yes he does remind you of 1-AP no official AB but 1000 OBP Adam Greenburg.

He made a good catch in RF yesterday

Milw-09-23-98--Brown in for defense--bases loaded--flyball--HE DROPPED THE BALL!!!NO NO NO, cubs lose 8-7

by Ivy Walls on Sep 17, 2007 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fuld...
Fuld is faster and much better defensively than Greenberg.  

Greenberg was decent, but was a guy who didn't really bring any strong tools to a team.  He did a little bit of a lot of things.

Fuld, on the hand, has very good speed and very good defense.  

by big_lowitzki on Sep 17, 2007 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe he is a find
The possibility will exist for the Cubs to make some longterm decisions in the OF. Pie appears to be on the threshold of starting. Defensively he would be the top CF'er in the NL and potential for the entire MLB. Offensively he seems to be almost there with tutalege from Piniella & Co.

Now in RF, Jones-Floyd-Murton are not going to do anything. There is little in the FA market for RF'ers which would increase Jones' value to many seeking fill a hole. There is another possibility that Griffey could be traded for since the Reds are will have a surplus in the OF. Also the Rockies will have a surplus in the OF.

If Fuld is a good 4th OF he could help like any utility OF'er while the Cubs could keep Monroe as the other OF'er who can play all three positions.

Milw-09-23-98--Brown in for defense--bases loaded--flyball--HE DROPPED THE BALL!!!NO NO NO, cubs lose 8-7

by Ivy Walls on Sep 17, 2007 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pagan?
Pagan has above average defensive skills?  Since when?

by big_lowitzki on Sep 17, 2007 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

well you may be misinformed
or prejudiced or simply looking for better expectations:
<snip>
http://www2.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/players/Angel_Pagan/
Scouting Report
Assets Consistent singles hitter who's very fast around the bases. Solid defensive outfielder. Surprisingly productive with runners in scoring position.
<snip>

ESPN ranks all CF'ers and in the unqualified area Felix Pie ranks 1st and Pagan 7th both with 1000% on chances, Range Factor 2.62 for Pie, 2.29 for Pagan; Zone rating, Pie .925 and Pagan .862

Just to compare the regulars; Pie would be ranked #1 ahead of Beltran (.913) as the top zone rating and Pagan would be just below Andruw Jones (.870) while in range factor Pie would be above Pierre and Cameron but just below Bill Hall, while Pagan about the same as Pierre.

Incidentally in RF Pagan's zone rating would place right next #2 Kearns and Hermedia.

Maybe you just don't appreciate good defense when you see it.  

Milw-09-23-98--Brown in for defense--bases loaded--flyball--HE DROPPED THE BALL!!!NO NO NO, cubs lose 8-7

by Ivy Walls on Sep 17, 2007 3:17 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Defensive stats...
Pagan has only played 236 innings in CF - I really don't consider that an adequate sample to base already faulty defensive metrics on.  I am very much a stat guy, but I acknowledge that defensive statistics are VERY limited, especially in such small sample sizes.  And the comparisons that you gave show Pie to be fairly superior to Pagan, so I am not sure what your point it there.

And as for ESPN "ranking" all CF, that is not what they are doing - they are just sorting by fielding percentage, not actually ranking them.  And fielding percentage is a pretty worthless stat for people with limited opportunities (like Pagan).  I really have no idea how sorting by fielding percentage tells us much of anything regarding Pagan's abilities in the field.

Don't get me wrong - Pagan is fast.  But that is about it.

He takes horrible routes to balls, but is at times able to make up for it with his speed.  From what I have watched, he doesn't really have a clue about where the ball is going off of the bat.  He also has just an average arm.  

I don't think that Pagan is awful defensively.  But I also don't think he is good.  I would say he is average, at best, but only because he is able to make up for mistakes with his excellent speed.

by big_lowitzki on Sep 17, 2007 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

October roster has to be: (Fingers Crossed)
Starting Pitchers:
  1. Zambrano
  2. Lilly
  3. Marquis
  4. Hill
Bullpen:
  1. Dempster
  2. Howry
  3. Marmol
  4. Eyre
  5. Wood
  6. Marshall
Infielders:
  1. Lee
  2. Ramirez
  3. DeRosa
  4. Theriot
  5. Kendall
  6. Cedeño
  7. Soto
  8. Ward
Outfielders:
  1. Soriano
  2. Jones
  3. Floyd
  4. Murton
  5. Pie
  6. Monroe
25th spot options:
IF Fontenot
OF Pagan
RHP Wuertz
LHP Ohman

No way, no way, no way does Fuld make the post-season roster. Pie is a better defender, and he is faster, you don't carry a guy who has barely sniffed a major league plate, when you've got another guy with better of the same skill set. Pie > Fuld.

Cedeño HAS to be on the roster. You can't NOT have a backup at SS, you just can't.

Marshall > Ohman, and he would give a long man in case somebody blows up in a start and you need 5 or 6 innings from the pen. Plus, with both Marshall and Eyre, a third lefty is kinda pushing it.

To me, the only question is for the 25th spot. Pagan is nice because he is really fast and a switch hitter, but 7 OF is kinda a lot (really 8 if you count Ward). Fontenot is most valuable at letting DeRosa move around the diamond without worrying about 2B. But that is needed much less in October than it is during the regular season. I could see an argument for either guy, but I'd probably pick Fontenot because when was the last time Pagan even played?

If Lou wants a 7th arm in the pen, the decision between Wuertz and Ohman would probably be based on match-ups. But I'd go with the 15th position player, and I'm pretty sure Lou would too.

by WittyUserName on Sep 17, 2007 3:37 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Interesting...
There is absolutely no way that Cedeno makes the roster over Fontenot.

And there is no way that Marshall makes the roster over Wuertz.

We also don't know if the Cubs would take 10 or 11 pitchers, but my guess is 11.  Which means that Hart, Marshall, and Trachsel would probably be in a fight for that spot.  

And Monroe, Murton, and Pie would be fighting for the last two OF spots.

Pagan, at this point, doesn't make the roster.  You can't put a guy on a playoff roster who hasn't played in several weeks.

by big_lowitzki on Sep 17, 2007 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Need a SS
Fontenot is strictly a 2B. If you don't carry Cedeño, then DeRosa is your backup SS, that's none too good.

Marshall is better than Wuertz. Plus Marshall is better than Ohman. Marshall is the logical choice as he fills two roles: the long man, and a second lefty in the pen.

There is no reason to carry 11 pitchers, at least not in my opinion. The cubs all season carried 11 (5 starters and 6 relievers), why would they want / need 7 relievers for 1 month of playing? The extra bat would be much more useful than a sparingly used arm.

I can't imagine that Monroe, Murton, and Pie aren't all on the (fingers crossed) playoff roster. Murton has been good off the bench, Monroe is flexible and hits lefties, and Pie is fast and a defensive dynamo.

I understand that you like Wuertz over Marshall, and Fontenot over Cedeño, and you have validity in your arguments. But Marshall is a starter with an arsenal, whereas Wuertz is a slider specialist. And while Fontenot is clearly a better player than Cedeño, he can't backup SS.

Hart has pitched less than 5 innings in the bigs, how he is a consideration for the roster? Trachsel was picked up as an insurance policy, and so that the rotation would survive the recent doubleheader. Why in the world would Trachsel be on the roster when Marshall is simply better as an emergency starter / long man?

My roster stands as is, and the 25th slot would probably go to Fontenot, if that makes any difference.

Starters:

  1. Zambrano
  2. Lilly
  3. Marquis
  4. Hill
Bullpen:
  1. Dempster (Closer)
  2. Howry (Setup)
  3. Marmol (Setup / Fireman)
  4. Eyre (Sertup / Lefties)
  5. Wood (Middle Relief)
  6. Marshall (Middle Relief / Long Relief / Lefties)
Infield:
  1. Lee
  2. Ramirez
  3. DeRosa
  4. Theriot
  5. Kendall
  6. Soto
  7. Cedeño
  8. Ward
  9. Fontenot
Outfield
  1. Soriano
  2. Jones
  3. Floyd
  4. Murton
  5. Pie
  6. Monroe
That's, in my opinion, the best 25 man roster that Lou could use for October. A 7th guy in the pen is really just a waste, he'd probably never even pitch all month.

by WittyUserName on Sep 17, 2007 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

huh?
Ohman could give you 1, 2 or even 3 outs in a short series

what does the short series have to do with anything in that context?

by Thelonious on Sep 17, 2007 4:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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