Lou's 2008 Opening Day Lineup

by bren on Jan 19, 2008 11:47 PM CST Comment 44 comments

Im sure a lot you have see this by now, but Piniella's opening day lineup is listed on cubs.com and various other places by now Im sure.

Soriano
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Fukudome
DeRosa
Soto
Pie
Pitcher

No real surprises at the top, I wouldnt put Theriot no.2. I dont know if Pie batting 8th is going to be the best slot for him (hitting infront of the pitcher and all that entails). Fukudome should get plenty of RBI opportunities in the 5 hole, but does he have enough power there? Does it matter?

Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, DeRosa should all get on base fairly well, which could help Soto at a run for R.O.Y.

If nothing else, its a pretty quick lineup, with the exception of Ramirez and Soto. All in all not bad, I agree with the notion that Fonzie should move down in the order, he could see as many fastballs hitting in between Ramirez and Lee or simply ahead of one of them as he would batting leadoff.

So we'll see, perhaps some of the names will change, I would suspect he'll make a few changes in the early going as he did last year...perhaps Fukudome might be better in the 2 slot? Might Soto might end up hitting behind Fukudome if he remains at5?

I'm pretty excited about that order; things can be done to both the rotation and lineup prior to March 31st, but I think theyve got a real shot at getting back to October.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of SB Nation or Al Yellon, managing editor (unless it's a FanPost posted by Al). FanPost opinions are valued expressions of opinion by passionate and knowledgeable baseball fans.

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i dont understand

why we'd want a career .276/.341 guy in the 2-spot....especially when we have a guy who hit for a better AVg than Theriot's OBP....oh, and that would break up the string of 4-5 righties depending on the pitchers spot.....

by zam on Jan 19, 2008 11:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

SB's, i guess

we know Lou likes his hustles, and the kid did steal what, 18 bases last year? so if he gets on ahead of the mashers he can make a pest of himself and throw off the opposing pitchers. anyways, just a theory on my part.

by petrie on Jan 20, 2008 12:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually he

had 28 SB last year. Playing all year he could probably have over 30 next year. It just depends on how he hits. If he's hitting 260s/320s OBP he won't be batting second for very long. He needs to be the 280s/350s guy he was up to August to stay in that spot.

But remember this line-up isn't set in stone. Matt Murton was Lous number two hitter in spring and the first few games of the season and made the switch. If Theriot isn't hitting as well as they hope, he won't be batting at the top for much longer.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 20, 2008 12:27 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Because the Cubs feel

Theriot is better then what he showed the final month of the season. On August 28th he was hitting 288/351/727. So those numbers are ok for a number two hitter. They really truely believe that his numbers dropped off so much because he was tired. I personally need to see it to believe it, but if Theriot doesn't hit like they think he will he won't be batting second very long. Lets not forget that Theriot hit second most of last season when we won the NL Central.

The reason Fukudome has to bat 5th is the Cubs need someone to drive in runs. In 05 and 07 when Lee/Ramirez were healthy and playing the Cubs had Burnitz/Floyd hitting 5th with 757 and 796 OPS. Thats not what you want from your number 5 hitter, and putting DeRosa there would be pretty much the same thing. Most experts expect Fukudome to have a OPS around 830-900. If thats true he needs to hit 5th in the line-up. But if Soto hits anything close to what he did last year in the big leagues, then we could consider moving Fukudome to second, but not right now.

If I had to make the line-up, I would put DeRosa second. Because that way we would still have good OBP in front of the middle of the order with Soriano (345/362 OBP as Leadoff hitter in 06/07), DeRosa(357/371 OBP in 06/07) in front of Lee, Ramirez and Fukudome.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 20, 2008 12:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I agree...

... re: where Dome hit in the lineup, with those expected numbers. You folks can change it after you see him playing as a Cub in spring training, and guess how long time he needs to get used to pitches in majors...

by dragonsfanatic on Jan 20, 2008 1:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

dragon -

I am going to both Cubs games in Las Vegas and would like to hoist a nice welcome sign and hopefully get Dome to sign it. Can you please make a sign on your flickr site that says "Welcome Dome" or "Welcome Blue Dragon" or whatever you think is most appropriate for the occasion?

also, how do i say "can i have your autograph" in Japanese? ;)

I'm the guy in the blue under armour shirt

by joeschmitt on Jan 20, 2008 6:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Drop

Theriot to seven, move DeRosa or Fukudome to #2 and you've got something.

But I will say, that more pointless words are spilt on this page over the batting order. All the evidence says it really doesn't matter much. The only real problem with this lineup is that it takes about 60-80 ABs over the course of a season away from either Fukudome or DeRosa and gives them to Theriot, who may be the worst hitter on the team.

I doubt that Theriot will still be batting #2 by Memorial Day, so it may be even less than that.

It's a girl! Born 1-18-08. 2246 PST. 8lbs. 1 oz.

by Josh77 on Jan 20, 2008 1:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

People treat the lineup and the rotation...

...as being immutable concepts, when really they're very fluid. I expect Lou is going to submit a variety of lineups throughout the season. It's not even a question of changing his mind - there's probably a bit of thinking about career splits and matchups that goes into it. That's the opening day lineup.

I'd wager he's batting Theriot second because he thinks that Wrigley plays like a pitcher's park in April, and he wants to use Theriot's speed to put the game in motion if he has to. He could well switch the lineup around when the get to the series in Philly because Citizen's Bank Ballpark is a year-round launching pad.

I think everyone around here knows that Theriot isn't exactly my first choice as our #2 hitter, but I think Lou wants to keep Fukudome further down in the order until his comfort level increases.

Same with the starting rotation - a lot of people worry about the order of the pitchers, when really the "starting five" order only is going to matter until April 9th, when because of off days two pitchers are both going to be "due" to pitch that day under the rotation. The concept is a lot more fluid than that. And people also worry about breaking up the lefties, when realistically the lefties are going to be broken apart by changes in series at times anyway - who cares if Lilly and Hill pitch back to back if Lilly faces a different team than Hill?

We use a lot of things as shorthand - everybody knows intuitively what a #3 starter is, and how they differ from a #4 starter. But there's a difference in using that shorthand and letting that shorthand define the way you make decisions. Sometimes its okay to let your cliches do your thinking for you, but it's healthy and productive every once in a while to step back and examine the underlying complexities that the cliches are trying to mask.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 20, 2008 2:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah if we learned anything from Lou last year

It's that he's not sold on any lineup.

It does seem weird to put Fukudome at 5th though. I mean, is it that big of a deal to switch the lefty-righty thing between Lee and DeRosa? I thought Fukudome's patient bat and lefty bat were going to help Lee and Ramirez. I guess we shall see.

by IllinoisCubs on Jan 20, 2008 2:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Fukudome

I agree Fukudome should atleast start the season hitting 2nd where he'd be in front of Lee and see more fastballs and until he gets accustomed to MBL pitching.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 20, 2008 3:01 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Who bats 5th then?

I don't want Mark DeRosa as our number five hitter next year. So moving Fukudome up in the order only makes sense if Soto hits at a pretty high level.

Having DeRosa, Soto, Pie and Theriot as our 5-8 hitters is just gonna leave Lee and Ramirez on base to much.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 20, 2008 3:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I personally would hit Lee 5th

Fukudome
Derosa
Soriano
ARam
Lee
Soto
Pie
Theriot

I know that would never happen, but that would be my lineup.

Man that lineup just doesn't look the same without Roberts.

If the Cubs don't get Roberts or another SP, they're screwed. Might win the NL Central again, but that'd be it. That simply isn't good enough for me.

But hey, atleast they still have all there prospects that won't do dk for this team this year or any future Cubs team for that matter.

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 20, 2008 6:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Flip flop Lee and Soriano

I reject your reality and substitute my own. ` Adam Savage Mythbusters

by lemon20pie on Jan 20, 2008 6:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Who else in the NL

is gonna beat us? Maybe the Padres, Dodgers and Diamondbacks have a better top 3 then us. But our 4-5 guys SP are better or as good as the Padres/Diamondbacks guys. Not to mention our line-up(even without Roberts), is better then the Padres, Diamondbacks and probably Dodgers. Plus our bullpen is just as good as theirs as well. As is right now were just as good as one of those teams, if we add Roberts or someone else we will be by far the favorites.

So all this freaking out thinking we can't win with this team is silly. We weren't worse then the Diamondbacks last year we beat ourselves pretty much in that series. Probably from being so tired because we had to come back from 8.5 games out with three months left of the season.

Plus any line-up with Soriano not leading off hurts the team, because your going to have alot less productive Soriano.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 20, 2008 3:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Soto will be the #5 hitter

or at least the hitter who bats after Aramis, when things get settled.

Lou's opening day lineup takes more care to bat players where there is less pressure or more chance for them to be what the Cubs hope they will be than it does pay attention to splits. Given that this won't be his year-long lineup, that's fine.

If Soto hits like most projection systems expect him to, he'll get moved up. If he doesn't and/or Pie hits like the Cubs scouts once thought he would, he'll get moved up. I'm sure, given all the talk of lefty hitters breaking up the righties, the Cubs would love to hit Pie 2nd.

*** On Sabermetric Probation ***

by DGU on Jan 20, 2008 6:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

How is Fukudome batting 5th weird?

Sure it would be nice to bat him in front of Lee and Ramirez. But he's the best guy we have to hit 5th in this line-up. I know Lee and Ramirez are our main RBI guys, so it's important to have good OBP guys in front of them. But everyone forgets that it's also very important to have a good hitter batting behind them.

Remember Lee/Ramirez are our best OBP guys as well, so they will be on base alot(even when their not driving in runs). So we need to have a good hitter behind them to drive them in. Thats why DeRosa is a better fit with his 370s OBP then Fukudome batting second. I feel much more confident in Fukudome driving in Lee/Ramirez batting 5th then DeRosa doing it. Plus I don't see Fukudome OBP much better then DeRosa 371 from last year. So would you rather have a 830-900 OPS guy batting 5th or a 790s OPS batting 5th? Especially when both guys could have simliar OBP.

by cubsfan25 on Jan 20, 2008 3:14 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Theriot

would hit second to stay out of the double play and he doesn't strikes out a lot less than DeRosa. I like Fukudome, pending on what we see in ST, as second because he's left handed. He'll pull the ball through the right side with Soriano being held on, and its an easy first to third. I've never been one for constantly changing the line-up around. Baseball is consistency. I like the idea of hitters knowing the surrounding batters. I can speak for myself at least, and say nothing chaps my butt more than getting shuffled in a lineup. But again, all players are different, and baseball opinions are like you know what...everyone has one.

That rug really tied the room together.

by TCobb1911 on Jan 20, 2008 2:50 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wow,

what a poor typist I am. Theriot strikes out a lot less than DeRosa.*

That rug really tied the room together.

by TCobb1911 on Jan 20, 2008 2:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Just to rebut what you said about

...DOME hitting to the right side, do you not remember that nearly 75% of the balls Theriot puts in play are to the right side of the field. The 75% is a guestimate from what I watched

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Jan 21, 2008 11:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

Actually Theriot seems to hit to all fields equally without a real tendency to pull. Maybe a slight tendency to go to right field, but not a substantial difference.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerHitChart?categoryId=352153

by MarchHare on Jan 21, 2008 12:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's a very cool chart.

Thanks for the link!

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 21, 2008 12:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Eventhough

the chart below doesn't show 75%, he's still right handed and is more of a threat for a double play.

That rug really tied the room together.

by TCobb1911 on Jan 21, 2008 3:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The

way Pinella manages there probably will be 100 different lineups this year. You could probably get great odds that the opening day lineup will be different after he sees everyone through the spring. Considering this lineup though it's amazing how everything seems to hinge on Pie. If he struggles, Soto could be pitched around, which could lead him to start swinging at bad balls. I like Pie alot and hope he comes through, but he's really going to be scrutinized.

by Comfortably Numb on Jan 20, 2008 7:11 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'd bet the ranch

that this will NOT be Lou's starting lineup come March 31st.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Jan 20, 2008 9:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don't have a ranch...

but I'd bet money this isn't Lou's lineup on Opening Day either. There are way to many "if's" right now to logically set a lineup. Even Lou himself said this would be his lineup IF the season started tomorrow.

I guess I'm looking at this whole lineup thing different then what I'm reading in this post. I'm noticing most of you posting what YOU would do if YOU were manager. Obviously none of us are going to be the manager of the Cubs in '08. So I've chosen to post my idea of what the Opening Day lineup will be based off what Lou has said and the fact that our GM isn't finished getting players.

It is quite simple actually:

Sori
?
Lee
Ram
?
?
?
?
Pitcher

Everything else is still up in the air. Once spring training starts we can better guess what the lineup will be on OPening Day.

by nmrudge on Jan 20, 2008 9:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

the riot

remember what a good job this kid did hitting leadoff??? theriot is a good solid hitter and he,ll do a good job wherever he is.he just ran out of gas and had back problems.put cedeno in a little more and theriot will be a little fresher.

by NOMAR on Jan 20, 2008 10:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Personally....

With the understanding that Sori is going to bat leadoff, I would put the following lineup out there...

Soriano
Theriot
Lee
Fukudome
Ramirez
Soto
DeRosa
Pie
Pitcher

I think the lefty-righty thing is kind of overrated. Yeah, you may force a guy to use up his bullpen, but I don't see seasons being won or lost on a RLR setup.

What I would like is to break-up Lee and Ramirez as our two biggest GIDP guys in the lineup. Plus, batting Fukudome fourth means that if the Cubs go 3 and out in the first inning, there is a on-base guy leading off the second in front of Ramirez.

Just my two cents. The only time I will ever get to put this into play is in Diamondmind baseball or MLB the Show on my PS3.

In the middle of a good time, Truth gave me her icy kiss. Look around, you must be joking. All that way, all that way for this -Oysterband

by Ross on Jan 20, 2008 12:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

That's...

... kind of what the question I asked (thanks, mrcubsfan) was trying to get at yesterday, but Lou wouldn't hear of it.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 20, 2008 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Personally...

...the one lineup change I would make, if I was in a position to do such things, would be to bat the pitcher eighth. I know, I know - LaRussa did it, and he's generally crazy. But - especially with a guy like Soriano leading off - it works. Probably better for a team like the Cubs than the Cardinals, where it was an open question whether or not Kennedy could outhit their pitching.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 20, 2008 1:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Would you then...

bat Theriot 9th, or a potentially (that's a highly qualified "potential" there) higher OBP guy, say Pie or Byrd--should he be brought in via trade? I don't disagree with your premise, but I'm curious who envision as your number 9 hitter and the logic behind your choice. Care to elaborate?

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jan 20, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

When we ran the simulations...

...Theriot always popped up as ninth. No idea about the relative merits of Byrd in such a lineup, but in Pie's case the assumption was that Pie's OBP would be lower than Theriot's, although by a small enough margin that a bit of good/bad luck in BABIP would change that real quick.

On the other hand, Pie's got a much higher slugging, so you'd rather have Theriot batting behind the pitcher - to oversimplify here, Theriot is better suited as a table-setter, while Pie is more suited to run production.

Now, if Pie gets closer to his upside projection, that could change. And Pie does have a higher upside than Theriot.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 20, 2008 1:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So it seems that lineup would set up

something like this:

Soriano
Fukudome
Lee
Ramirez
Pie
Soto
Derosa
P
Theriot

Of course, probably those 5-7 spots have some flexibility, depending on who the opponent pitches and how (and whether) Soto and Pie emerge as hitters. Am I right to assume this?

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jan 20, 2008 1:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

What if...

... the pitcher batted 8th and Fukudome batted 9th?

Wouldn't that accomplish the goal of getting a high OBP hitter ahead of Soriano?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 20, 2008 1:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If Pie doesn't project

into that spot because of his run-producing potential, as cwyers contends, then surely Fukudome wouldn't project into that spot for similar reasons. It seems from cwyers' comments that Theriot projects well into that spot because you introduce speed and OBP into the bottom half of the lineup without losing any run production potential at the top. I've scoffed at LaRussa for this idea in the past, but it makes sense when considered in terms of balancing the lineup.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jan 20, 2008 1:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If the goal is getting a high OBP hitter...

...ahead of Soriano, then why wouldn't you put a high OBP hitter (or two) leading off and then Soriano?

Al, I'm not saying that getting a high OBP hitter in front of Soriano is your goal - my guess is you were just trying to help out the previous poster. Plus, I know your mind is set in stone with Soriano leading off.

Just seems like a goal of having a high OBP in front of Soriano is in conflict with having Soriano leading off. And yes, I know, after the first time through the lineup, this isn't really an issue, but that one at-bat per game could be crucial for at least a few games over the course of a season.

Finally, just because it's fun arguing with myself... Seems to me if you really want high OBP in front of Soriano AND you still want Soriano to leadoff, then howsabout batting the pitcher 6th or 7th, and put your high OBP hitters at the bottom of the order to really set the table for Soriano. Take that LaGenuis!!! ;-)

Lou Brown: "My kinda team, Charlie, my kinda team..."

by ballhawk on Jan 20, 2008 7:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

I was just trying to take the point to a (somewhat illogical) extreme.

It's not MY mind that's set in stone. I realize that there are, perhaps, better leadoff options (even Fukudome, who has good plate discipline), in a vacuum, in a perfect world, in a world where we deal only with statistical realities.

It's not that world. In this one, Alfonso Soriano is more productive as a leadoff hitter than in any other batting order slot, and is also a happier human being if you slot him there.

And so, regardless of the (seemingly) 10,000 posts on this topic here trying to examine this issue, Soriano's going to lead off.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 20, 2008 8:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Given my current assumptions...

...I'd move Soto and DeRosa up a spot and move Pie down two spots. But you're absolutely right - it depends on how they're performing during the season. It also depends on some other factors - I don't know where I'd bat Pie against lefties, but maybe in that case, if Z or Marquis are pitching, you put Pie eighth and the pitcher in the traditional spot.

I would suggest you learn to truly interrupt all stats before using any selective stats. -- cubswin

by cwyers on Jan 20, 2008 2:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking the same

about Pie, that he'd have to move to 7th or eighth against lefties, unless he either figures out LHP or the Cubs trade for platoon partner for him. I think a lot of this depends on Soto. If he matures into the kind of hitter he was at the end of last year, he hits 5; if not, the either Derosa or Dome has to hit 5 and Pie and Soto make up the bottom of lineup with the pitcher.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jan 20, 2008 2:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking

Fukudome in CF, Murton in RF against lefties. Pie on the bench until he gets a handle.

by IllinoisCubs on Jan 21, 2008 4:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If...

... Pie is going to be the star that many of us think/hope he will, he is going to have to learn to hit LHP. Benching him won't accomplish this.

I think you'll see a Soriano-Pie-Fukudome outfield nearly every day for at least a couple of months.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 21, 2008 9:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we're going to see

too much of Fukudome in CF. If that were in the Cubs' plans, I doubt we'd be seeing the (overly-discussed and thoroughly tired) Cedeno Experiment going on, or the Cubs' pursuit of MArlon Byrd continuing. From what I heard out of the local beat guys, Dome was promised RF, feels most comfortable there and will play there. I know he can play CF, but I think Lou is saving that for an emergency situation. We're entering sink-or-swim territory with Pie, IMHO. He's got to prove he can hit at this level and the only way he can do that is playing every day.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Jan 21, 2008 10:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

LSA!

n/t

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Jan 21, 2008 11:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't understand why you get a much...

...better hitter in Fukudome, or at least you expect him to be a far better hitter than Theriot. (If he isn't far better then it's a huge disappointment.) And then you say we'll give this guy fewer plate appearances. I don't understand it. The Cubs don't need more "role players". The Cubs have plenty of role players and we've had 100 years of role players doing B.S. and losing. You win by better talent and having luck as well. But I hope the Cubs will approach their roster with some sobriety and put the best talent forward. This B.S. about the role of a no. 2 hitter is just that. Put the best hitters at the top so that they get the most plate appearances. I am not arguing about the ordering of those guys, but I have Soriano, Lee, Fukudome, and Aramis as the best hitters. I don't want to see the Ronny Cedenos and Neffi Perez of the world stealing their ABs--get out of this loser mindset!

by DudeVf11 on Jan 21, 2008 11:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Theriot Projections...

I'm sure you all read the same blogs I do, but here's a ZiPS projection on all the 2008 Cubs. http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_chicago_cubs/

Pie seems to have the edge at batting 2nd according to these projections. He has better speed and just about the same OBP.

Maybe I'm smoking something, but it seems like it would make just as much sense to have Cedeno as the starting SS. Roughly the same OBP with more power.

Also, Matt Murton's projections are a lot better than I expected at 289/360/465, 18HR.

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Jan 22, 2008 12:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs