2008 Community Projections: Geovany Soto

by Al on Feb 14, 2008 8:15 AM CST in Community Projections Comment 107 comments

With spring training under way, I thought it was a good time to start this series again. If you are new to BCB, each year I ask you to give your best projection -- use any method you want, from intense sabermetrics to outright guessing -- for final stats for various players. We'll do the starting eight, maybe a key reserve or two, the starting rotation, and important relievers.

Let's begin with Soto, who will be entrusted with the starting catcher job this year. Will he be able to keep up the torrid pace he set last year in the PCL? Will he be a flop? Or somewhere in between?

Pick the following categories:

AB-R-H-2B-3B-BB-SO-HR-RBI-AVG-OBA-SLG

(don't forget to match your AVG-OBA-SLG numbers with the other numbers you pick; in other words, if you pick him to have 50 walks, make sure the OBA numbers match that)

I'll start:

AB: 495
R: 62
H: 138
2B: 26
3B: 1
BB: 48
SO: 99
HR: 15
RBI: 65
AVG: .278
OBA: .343
SLG: .426

I'll leave this thread open for a few days, then I'll need a volunteer to tabulate the results (Imtrejo, are you still out there?).

Geovany Soto's career major league stats from baseball-reference.com

Geovany Soto's career minor league stats from baseball-reference.com

UPDATE [2008-2-15 17:19:59 by Al]: Projections for Soto are closed. When cwyers and Imtrejo finish compiling them, I will post the final projection here.

UPDATE [2008-2-15 19:56:46 by Al]: Courtesy of cwyers and Imtrejo, here's our final projection for Soto. This is a "weighted" average using playing time as a factor:

AB: 469
R: 62
H 132
2B: 25
3B: 1
BB: 47
SO: 95
HR: 18
RBI: 73
AVG: .281
OBP: .346
SLG: .455

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soto

Hello So-To

by cozmotaylor on Feb 14, 2008 8:29 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

LOL! I love it!

They should play that little annoying Motorola ringer everytime Soto comes to bat

Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Feb 14, 2008 11:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Geovany Soto

AB - 445
R - 54
H - 127
2B - 21
3B - 1
BB - 54
K - 111
HR - 17
RBI - 66

AVG - .283
OBP - .363
SLG - .452

OPS - .815

by Ayralin on Feb 14, 2008 9:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Soto

AB: 450
R: 60
H: 122
2B: 21
3B: 0
HR: 15
RBI: 56
AVG: .259
OBA: .318
SLG: .410

Most importantly, good defense behind the plate and a decent job done in working with the pitching staff.

by MDBNIU on Feb 14, 2008 9:18 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

OT

Al, I really enjoy the different BCB icons that you put up. They are all very clever.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~Earl Wilson

by tucsoncubsfan on Feb 14, 2008 9:34 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks!

Credit to Mike for all the artwork.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 14, 2008 10:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Soto Projections...

He was awesome to watch last year in Des Moines, but I'll say that I'm relieved that he has a home in Chicago. He really worked on his approach at the plate, especially over his first two years he in AAA... he used his power to all parts of the field.

We're getting a real homegrown gem here.

Soto Projections:
AB - 472
R - 61
H - 131
2B - 29
3B - 1
BB - 63
K - 102
HR - 23
RBI - 81

AVG - .307
OBP - .411
SLG - .489
OPS - .900

He will also lead the team in GDP's. The dude's slow.

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 14, 2008 9:51 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Yowza

Dang, I like your projections. 23 HR in 472 at-bats.

Et tu, Augie, et tu?

by mlf on Feb 14, 2008 10:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Too optimistic

Maybe 15 homers is possible, but predicing a rookie catcher to bat .300? Has that ever happened in Cub history? No one will ever confuse Soto with a young Mike Piazza or Carlton Fisk, in my opinion.

Let's hope he can bat a respectable .260 or .270 and get the job done behind the plate.

"Have Keith Moreland drop a routine fly. Give everybody two bags of peanuts and a frosty malt, And I'll be ready to die." -Steve Goodman

by danimal15 on Feb 14, 2008 12:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's really irrelevant...

...if any one projection among the batch is optimistic/pessimistic/etc. These projections are most useful when viewed in the aggregate - wisdom of crowds and all that.

I'd like to add, not to you necessarily but to the community as a whole - please, no "gaming" your projection to try and cancel out a percieved bias. Please be honest.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 12:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

my bad ... n/t

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 14, 2008 12:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This is based on my observations...

... of his improvement at the plate. In 05 and 06 at Iowa, he was always on top of the ball, and pulled almost everything. I watched kids actually run over to the 3rd base side of the stands to shag his fly balls.

In 2007 he keeps his hands back, using a much shorter, more balanced swing than he used to. His patience was vastly better as well, drawing many more hitters counts of 3-1 and 3-2.

We don't need a good batting average from him... we need him to get on base and hit doubles, and I don't think this will be much of a stretch in the majors for a 25 year old with his talent.

I'll eat my words if he sucks.

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 14, 2008 12:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Does that mean...

... you'll print out this page and eat the paper? Or will you actually eat your monitor?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 14, 2008 1:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

psst, dude...go with the paper

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 14, 2008 1:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

BBQ'd

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 14, 2008 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

How much difference have you noticed

about his physical shape?

I think that's what has made him a better player. Kerry Wood influenced him to eat a better diet and improve his body. He's been like a new ball player ever since.

I'm in absolutely no friggin way comparing he two, but at one time... Albert Pujols was a pudgy, out of shape, low, low, low round minor leaguer. Barely noticed. Then, he took better care of his body, and started performing better.

Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Feb 14, 2008 1:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oh yes

57 Home Run
136 RBI
.316 AVG
23 saved kittens from trees
11 keys to the city
47 wives
367 children
100% gunned down
3 separate beatdowns of albert pujols

and a partridge in a pear tree.

Geo Soto, 2008 NL MVP

"You're fired." - Dallas Green to Billy Connors while Billy was staying in the hospital.

by jdoolsiu on Feb 14, 2008 10:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

only?

...23 saved kitties?

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 14, 2008 10:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

thats

awesome!

by Kchance on Feb 14, 2008 11:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Soto projections

AB: 417
R: 71
H: 133
2B: 28
3B: 1
HR: 17
RBI: 68

AVG: .269
OBA: .338
SLG: .464

OPS: .802

BTW, I think it's funny that SB is not a stat. For this player, it might as well not be, but just in case:

SB: 0

by SleepyLaBeef on Feb 14, 2008 10:14 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Please,

If you include OBA please include both walks and hits. When finalizing the projections I will use the totals of everyones guess to compute AVE, OBA, and SLG.

Thanks

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 14, 2008 11:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And AB's as well.

n/t

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 14, 2008 11:04 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, it would be very convenient...

...if everyone would please put the stats in the order that Al did. Thanks, folks.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Soto Projections

IMO, hardest starter to predict

AB: 454
R: 56
H: 125
2B: 16
3B: 0
BB: 44
SO: 101
HR: 18
RBI: 76
AVG: .269
OBA: .335
SLG: .424

by Critical Fanatic on Feb 14, 2008 10:30 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Pie

... in my opinion will be even harder to predict than Soto. Both tough though...

by digitalbenjamin on Feb 14, 2008 1:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

soto projection

AB-450
R-62
H-124
2B-26
3B-1
BB-53
SO-113
HR-18
RBI-72
AVG-.276
OBP-.352
SLG-.458

by kranskie on Feb 14, 2008 10:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Geovany Soto Projection

435@bats
122 hits
.280 avg
54 runs
18 homers
68 ribbies

by 4merCubVendor on Feb 14, 2008 10:56 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

If you project hits....

you also need to project walks.
It just makes the computing easier, thanks.

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 14, 2008 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

SOTO

ab    450
R    60
H    122
2B    20
3B    0
BB    36
SO    110
HR    18
RBI    75
AVG    0.27
OBP    0.325
SLG    0.436

by slink on Feb 14, 2008 11:01 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Optimistic projections

AB - 455
R - 64
H - 136
2B - 28
3B - 0
BB - 66
SO - 117
HR - 19
RBI - 76
AVG - .298
OBP - .387
SLG - .485
OPS - .872
SB - O

And yes, this is way overly optimistic, but I'd be happy an OPS. of .770 after the abyssmal production we got out of the catcher spot last season.

BYNUM!

by Foley on Feb 14, 2008 11:03 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Domo Soto..

AB 430
R 55
H 110
2B 28
3B 0
HR 12
BB 45
SO 115
RBI 60
AVG .255
OBP .326
SLG .395

Serviceable if he continues to be an asset defensively. I certainly like his potential more than Barrett.

Reds will finish above the Cubs in the NL Central. Book it.

by wicubfan on Feb 14, 2008 11:07 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not good at these type of numbers, but

I'll wager that Soto throws out more runners than all of our combined catchers averaged out over the least several seasons!

Oh, and while I'm at it, can't wait for us to run on Jason Kendall every chance we get vs Milwaukee!

Heck, I even think Big Z can swipe a couple bases off of Kendall this year!

Ed Lynch is STILL on the Cubs payroll, as our D-Backs scout in Phoenix. Lynch attends all 81 D-Back home games with a notepad in hand. Really paid off for us!

by SackMan on Feb 14, 2008 11:12 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Stats Question

I just want to confirm something here. Is the following, in fact, the commonly accepted formula for OBP:

(H+BB+HBP)/(AB+BB+HBP+SF)

Specifically, are sacrifice flies (SF) really counted toward a player's OBP?

I would ask the more mathematically minded among you to pardon my ignorance, this is actually the first time I've tried calculating a projection.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 14, 2008 11:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Sac flies count as plate appearances...

...and thus are in the denomenator. They aren't times reached base, and thus don't count in the numberator. They're infrequent enough that you can ignore them here.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 11:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha, thanks!

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 14, 2008 11:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Right.

For the purposes of these projections for OBA, let's ignore everything except walks. That'll be close enough.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 14, 2008 11:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If your numerators become numb...

...putting them in the oven at about 150 degrees for 20 minutes should return them to their warm and toasty selves again.

"Confidence is what you have before you understand the problem." Woody Allen

by BlueSox on Feb 15, 2008 10:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My thoughts

AB 390
R 55
H 101
2B 22
3B 0
HR 13
BB 47
SO 95
RBI 60
AVG .259
OBP .339
SLG .415

I expect an adjustment slump at some point during the year which will cost him some ABs, but a good August and September seems probable if Lou does not decide to lean on Blanco after the slump.

by Qixotl on Feb 14, 2008 11:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I got a head start on tabulating...

...the results, and it's available for anyone to view. If anyone (particularly Imtrejo) wants to be able to edit this document, send me an e-mail at pontifexexmachina@hotmail.com and I'll get you added. You'll need a Google account of some sort to be able to log in (but Google accounts are so free and plentiful these days I'm sure that won't be a problem.)

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 11:28 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, cwyers...

... and to anyone else who's willing to help out.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 14, 2008 11:34 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also...

...those cells in the spreadsheet that are shaded blue are derived walks based upon the number of hits, plate appearances and OBP listed by the projector. (I used this nifty little equation solver.) Anyone who didn't provide enough data for me to get everything (except for strikeouts) didn't get tabulated.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 11:36 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to see (pipe dream?)

AB: 488
R: 69
H: 136
2B: 28
3B: 2
BB: 52
SO: 89
HR: 17
RBI: 68
AVG: .278
OBA: .385
SLG: .448

Id be happy with these numbers. Especially with his defense.

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 14, 2008 11:54 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Mr. Roboto!(Soto)

ab:501
r: 72
H: 147
2b: 36
3b: 1
bb: 42
k: 85
hr: 27
rbi: 73
avg: .293

by acdc89 on Feb 14, 2008 12:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

The cold hard facts...

Geovany Soto

AB - 503
R - 58
H - 136
2B - 31
3B - 1
BB - 72
K - 83
HR - 22
RBI - 68

AVG - .270
OBP - .364
SLG - .467

OPS - .831

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 14, 2008 12:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'll give it a try

I've never done this before so forgive me:

AB: 478
R: 55
H: 118
2B: 22
3B: 0
BB: 55
SO: 111
HR: 19
RBI: 76
AVG: .262
OBA: .341
SLG: .441

by McRipper on Feb 14, 2008 12:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

My chance to look like an idiot

Geo Soto:

AB: 480
R: 60
H: 125
2B: 25
3B: 0
BB: 35
SO: 110
HR: 20
RBI: 70

AVG: .260
OBA: .311
SLG: .438

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Feb 14, 2008 1:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Al

I'd just like to point out that Mike's portrayal of the St. Valentine's Day Massacre mobster on the logo (member of Capone's outfit), is historically incorrect. The members of Capone's crew dressed up as plainclothes police officers in trench coats etc. with badges. They'd hardly be dressed in flashy gangster attire. That may be a better portrayal of one of the several murdered men from Bugs Moran's gang, but he should probably be riddled with bullet holes and bleeding profusely.

Also, I'm like 80 percent sure that the principals in the St. Valentine's Day Massacre weren't cartoon bears.

by Thelonious on Feb 14, 2008 1:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I would object...

to your portrayal of bears as evil, murderous criminals...but bears are tearing this country apart. They are godless killing machines.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 14, 2008 2:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Only 80 percent?

What does the other 20 percent think?

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 14, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My predictions

AB: 540
R: 87
H: 158
2B: 32
3B:1
BB: 67
SO: 95
HR: 19
RBI: 87
AVG: .293
OBA: .374
SLG: .469

BTW, I copied these EXACT stats from Russell Martins last year minus SB and I tweaked triples and strikeouts. How do you like dem apples?

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Feb 14, 2008 1:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

After reconsidering

I think I am an idiot. But those would be sick numbers

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Feb 14, 2008 1:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

tony412

AB: 380
R: 51
H: 89
2B: 13
3B: 2
BB: 39
SO: 84
HR: 12
RBI: 55
AVG: .269
OBA: .330
SLG: .405

"We're going to turn this team around 360 degrees." -Jason Kidd

by tony412 on Feb 14, 2008 1:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

In my

opinion one of the more realistic projections. My question is who will make up the 200 at bats? I am not so sure we will see Blanco again.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 14, 2008 2:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously some of these projections...

...will end up being closer to reality than others. But right now we have no way of knowing for certain which projections those will be, and declaring certain projections "more realistic" is just a way of saying "closer to what I would project."

The group as a whole is MUCH more likely to be accurate than any individual forecaster among us. But that only works so long as people are reasonably comfortable sharing their true opinions - which is why I get a little antsy when it comes to discussing forecasts in this fashion. I'd hope that everyone would feel comfortable sharing their opinions freely, because it makes the end result better.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 2:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well said

You are spot on with your opinion of these projections. Even harder for the rookies or young players without ml history.

On a whole I do think that we Cub fans tend to expect to much from the unknown commodity. Wrong or right, does not matter. All we can do is wait for the season and this is were hope springs internal!

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 15, 2008 7:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Only one number

But I think that Geo can be freaking Rookie of the Year! Over .300 BA.

I want my Macias!

by wombat on Feb 14, 2008 2:10 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

wouldn't it be sweet?

AB: 511
R: 67
H: 159
2B: 30
3B: 2
BB: 48
SO: 88
HR: 19
RBI: 72

AVG: .311
OBA: .370
SLG: .489

SB: 3 (all off Kendall)

% baserunners thrown out: 42%

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Feb 14, 2008 2:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Stud:

AB: 535
R: 65
H: 150
2B: 26
3B: 2
BB: 40
SO: 103
HR: 20
RBI: 73
BA: .280
OBP: .355
SLG: .449

OPS: a sexy .804

In Bo I trust.

by Schwa on Feb 14, 2008 2:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

here's my shot

AB: 492
R: 68
H: 140
2B: 22
3B: 0
BB: 52
SO: 78
HR: 21
RBI: 83
AVG: .285
OBA: .353
SLG: .457

by socalbob on Feb 14, 2008 2:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Huge RBI Total for Soto

With the current Cub projected lineup, the best OBP guys will all be hitting before Soto, so I'm expecting a big RBI number. I also expect him to get pitched around a lot until Pie picks it up or Soto gets moved up in the order.

AB: 485
R: 65
H: 140
2B: 35
3B: 2
HBP/BB: 65
SO: 120
HR: 18
RBI: 90
AVG: .289
OBA: .372
SLG: .480

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 14, 2008 2:50 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I am willing and able to do compute the numbers.

Al, let me know if you want me to post the final results or e-mail them to you. Let me know if my computing is needed. It seems that cywers has a head start.

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 14, 2008 2:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I had thought....

I posted this comment earlier, apparently not.

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 14, 2008 2:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Drop me an email...

... you and cwyers can coordinate your efforts. There will be quite a few more of these. Thanks!

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 14, 2008 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Soto Predictions

AB: 442
R: 51
H: 119
2B: 18
3B: 0
BB: 42
SO: 97
HR: 14
RBI: 63
AVG: .268
OBA: .339
SLG: .405

by sheamcmurray on Feb 14, 2008 2:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'll give it a shot...

AB: 476
R: 64
H: 142
2B: 27
3B: 1 (sure, why not?)
BB: 45
SO: 110
HR: 22
RBI: 81
AVG: .298
OBA: .360
SLG. .523

by SamFels on Feb 14, 2008 3:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Explanation

Wow, I'm replying to myself. How pompous. anyway, I think these numbers could even go up if Soto ends up hitting 8th, because of his better discipline than Pie. This will help Pie too, who will be better than people think, and if he can get on base at even a decent clip will keep pitchers distracted for Soto.

by SamFels on Feb 14, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

So explain to me

How Soto has better plate discipline?

Minor League OBP totals for the two

PIE---.355
SOTO--.358
Eeerily similiar

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Feb 14, 2008 3:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Ignoring the fact that you simply can't...

...use cumulative minor league totals to compare players (because you end up saying that production at all levels of the minors is roughly equivalent, obviously not true), OBP isn't a measure of plate discipline, because its largest component is batting average. IsoD (walks divided by plate appearances) is a much better measure of pure plate discipline.

Remember: OBP measures production, IsoD measures an underlying skill. Now, high OBP players tend to have high IsoDs, and vice versa - but you can't simply conflate the two.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 3:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And I have been put in my place...

...Santoswoodenlegs must have a picture for this?

On the other hand, I would still like to see how Soto has better plate discipline therefore should bat 8th. IMHO Ryan Theriot is the Cubs 8 hitter

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Feb 14, 2008 3:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Always with the pictures....

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 14, 2008 4:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We already know that Lou...

...plans on batting Theriot #2 for the time being. Lou has also said that Soto will bat #7 and Pie will bat #8. That's, of course, subject to change at any time, but it IS useful to know for this sort of exercise.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 4:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

When

I see Lou stick to a plan Ill believe.

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Feb 15, 2008 8:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I wrote about this ...

...in my comments below, but a lot changed for Soto in his year 24 year. His plate discipline in 07 was remarkable compared to 05-06 when I watched him in Des Moines. He looked more balanced and had a shorter, more compact swing and drove the ball to all parts of the field.

Comparing his early years in the minors to last year is fair, but it's not accurate. Last year I saw a guy that was absolutely dominant in Des Moines, and it appeared that his approach in Chicago wasn't much different with similar results.

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 14, 2008 3:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Soto

Wow, a lot of you have very large expectations for Geovany Soto with the bat. I think some of these RBI and Slugging %s are goofy. The presumption is that he is going to be the next Mike Piazza with the stick after only one good year with the bat in his career?!?

I like Soto a lot. But I think a .260 BA to go along with 15-18 HRs and in the neighborhood of 55 RBIs is about right. Remember, his biggest task is to play good defense behind the plate and work well with the pitching staff. If he does that then he'll be earning his stripes.

by MDBNIU on Feb 14, 2008 3:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

one good year

Soto's #s before last year weren't that bad for a C and we know that last year he upped his bat speed after losing weight. As long as the weight stays off and the bat speed stays up, I don't think it is unreasonable to assume he will keep hitting fairly well.

The high RBI total for me is more a reflection of an expectation that the 3-4 hitters batting ahead of Soto are going to be on base A LOT. If Pie bats ahead of Soto, then that RBI number will go down. If you think he'll hit 15-18 HRs, I'm surprised you think he'll only hit 55 RBIs.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 14, 2008 3:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Soto

Soto has had very limited major league time. I'm going to wait and see what he does in his first full year in the majors. I suspect the transition to major league pitching will be tougher than many of you think. That said, I like Soto and am most interested in what he does behind the plate.

by MDBNIU on Feb 14, 2008 3:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Contrarily

I think Soto was much better last year than many of his more cautious projectors think. He hit .353/.424/.652 in nearly 400 AAA ABs. He followed up with better numbers in the majors. He looked sound at the plate, even coming up big in the playoffs.

But, yeah, we'll all be waiting to see - and, at least you will have the benefit in being very glad if you are wrong!

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 14, 2008 5:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

instead of questioning

follow the format and post your numbers.

I don't recall seeing .330, 35 HR, and 110 RBI projections, so the Piazza thing is a stretch.

by socalbob on Feb 14, 2008 3:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

never mind

saw your number above. Piazza comment still hold true as there aren't any major projections for Soto.

by socalbob on Feb 14, 2008 3:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Just one man's projection for Geovany

AB: 450
R: 55
H: 135
2B: 20
3B: 0
BB: 60
SO: 95
HR: 18
RBI: 78
AVG: .287
OBA: .355
SLG. .510

by Scott 9 on Feb 14, 2008 3:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Might as well give it a shot myself.

AB: 510
R: 68
H: 138
2B: 31
3B: 1
BB: 52
SO: 120
HR: 19
RBI: 78
AVG: .278
OBA: .338
SLG: .447

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 3:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Mistyped that.

Should be a .271 batting average.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 3:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, Cwyers...

shoot me an e-mail.

i.m.trejo (at) excite (dot) com

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 14, 2008 4:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Sent.

n/t

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 4:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Did you get the dots?

i.m.trejo (at) excite (dot) com

I haven't recieved anything.

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 14, 2008 5:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, got the dots.

Check your junk mail folder, or just drop me a line at pontifexexmachina@hotmail.com. (I already get all the junk mail in the world, so what's a little more?)

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 14, 2008 5:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

JohnMan Says...

Geovany Soto: Catcher

My prediction: Barring injury, I believe he'll impress for the most of the season. Offensively, he'll be underestimated in this line-up. Managers will pitch past the heart of the lineup, expecting Soto to be as easier out. Because of this, he'll tremendously help the team out RBI-wise during the first half of the season. However, I fear an offensive slide late in the season. Through it all, his defense will remain strong.

Ultimately, he will make a bigger impact than expected...

AB: 464
R: 66
H: 122
2B: 23
3B: 0
BB: 39
SO: 118
HR: 14
RBI: 86
AVG: .263

by JohnMan on Feb 14, 2008 5:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

mine

AB: 459
R: 60
H: 129
2B: 30
3B: 2
BB: 35
SO: 119
HR: 23
RBI: 89
AVG: .281

by Rezze21 on Feb 14, 2008 6:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Here's mine

AB: 500
R: 65
H: 145
2B: 30
3B: 0
BB: 50
SO: 100
HR: 18
RBI: 70
AVG: .290
OBA: .346
SLG: .458

I know that you believe that you understood what you think I said, but I am not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant. - Robert McCloskey

by pageian on Feb 14, 2008 7:11 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

woah seems like we were just doing this

its really been a year?? Anyway, I'll make my prediction.

134 G
490 AB
R 63
H 136
2b 26
3b 1
BB 49
SO 103
HR 18
RBI 72
AVG .278
OBP .345
SLG .427

I really was just guessing what I think it is. I honestly don't know what to expect with Soto this season...

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 14, 2008 7:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

whats

with the mobster bear???

WhErE's My CuBs?!?!

by tbizzle83 on Feb 14, 2008 8:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Soto 2008 #'s

I think the pitchers will figure him out and my expectations are a bit down from most of the others of you. I hope i am wrong and he is Rookie of the Year.

AB: 350
R: 51
H: 102
2B: 19
3B: 0
BB: 38
SO: 82
HR: 18
RBI: 63
AVG: .265
OBA: .323
SLG: .415

Aug 15 - Ted Lilly walked by the lineup card and said to nobody in particular "I can't believe I'm batting 9th again".

by mweil on Feb 14, 2008 8:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Okay, I'm going through and checking out some...

...of the numbers here, and it looks like a reminder/refresher could be useful here.

Batting average is hits divided by at-bats - H/AB.

On-base percentage is hits plus walks divided by at-bats plus walks - (H+BB)/(AB+BB).

Slugging is hits plus doubles plus 2 times triples plus 3 times home runs divided by at bats - (H+2B+2*3B+3*HR)/AB.

Probably the most common error when people figure out their rate stats is forgetting to include walks in both the numerator AND denomenator of on-base percentage.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 15, 2008 12:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Could you explain your formula for SLG?

I can only find info that uses:

SLG = (1B+(2x2B)+(3x3B)+(4xHR)) divided by AB.

Where AB is the number of at-bats for a given player, and 1B, 2B, 3B, and HR are the number of singles, doubles, triples, and home runs, respectively. Walks are specifically excluded from this calculation.

I think a more in-depth review on the different calculations for baseball stats would be extremely valuable (at least to me) for all. Thanks.

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 15, 2008 6:38 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Both are right...

Look closely at the formulas you guys put down, both are right.

He's starting with Hits. So basically, every hit is worth 1 to start. Then, he's adding an extra base for 2B's, 2 extra bases for 3B's, and 3 extra bases for HR's. Then, dividing it all by AB's.

You're starting with 0 (basically, not starting with Hits), and adding total bases (1 for single, 2 for double, 3 for triple, 4 for HR), then dividing by AB's.

The bottom line is both formulas come out with the same answer. Total bases/AB's.

by ontheuptick on Feb 15, 2008 7:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also...

How do you figure OPB without using Sac Flies and Hit By Pitch? I believe the correct formula is:

OPB = (H + BB + HBP) / (AB + BB + HBP + SF)

New to a lot of this and just trying to figure it out. Thanks.

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 15, 2008 7:32 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

The calculation is not 100% correct, but to have everyone try to predict HBP and Sac Flys(or is it Flies) might be going a little over the top. The number we come up with will be a relatively close estimation.

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 15, 2008 7:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

In all of baseball last season...

...there were roughly 5 HBP and 4 SF every 500 at-bats. Unless you get a player like Craig Biggio in there, it's not going to do a whole lot for their numbers. (And if you want to get really technical with the formula, Intentional Walks count as well.)

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 15, 2008 10:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, and you can't use HBP or IW

against Barry Bonds either. You try getting a pitch by that big ass head of his and across the strike zone.

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 15, 2008 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Aaah!

I was a history major in college. Don't recall reading about this.

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 15, 2008 8:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My Turn

AB-480
R-50
H-127
2B-23
3B-4
BB-43
SO-126
HR-18
RBI-67
AVE.-.265
OBA-.325
SLG-.438

He will start strong, but the league will catch up and after the season's grind he will struggle towards the end of the year.

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 15, 2008 12:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

My Predictions

Personally I hope Soto does better then these predictions, but I don't wanna get myself to hyped up for him.

AB's-408
Avg-252
OBP-342
HR-13
RBI-65
SLG-433
OPS-775

by cubsfan25 on Feb 15, 2008 12:47 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

MO Predictions

AB-450
R-51
H-130
2B-19
3B-1
BB-45
SO-60
HR-17
RBI-61
AVG-.289
OBA-.353
SLG - .448

by MissouriKev on Feb 15, 2008 6:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

More predictions...

AB: 495
R: 65
H: 135
2B: 28
3B: 0
BB: 52
SO: 102
HR: 15
RBI: 65

by MadHatterBlues on Feb 15, 2008 9:28 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Soto

AB: 520
R: 90
H: 179
2B: 30
3B: 3
BB: 35
SO: 70
HR: 25
RBI: 112
AVG: .344
OBA: .411
SLG: .557

Soto has an amazing breakout season and is quickly moved up in the line-up. In order to get more AB's, and to rest a not-healthy all year D Lee, he plays a few games at first. He gets serious MVP consideration and is the consensus best catcher in the game.

by frustratedfan on Feb 15, 2008 11:48 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

re: Soto

Is this statistical sarcasm? I believe you did this last year as well...

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 15, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My first prediction ever

Here goes. Again, please be gentle as I'm a first-timer and I suck at math:

AB: 500
R: 50
H: 140
2B: 30
3B: 1
BB/HBP: 45
SO: 115
HR: 17
RBI: 75
AVG: .280
OBP: .339
SLG: .446
OPS: .785

Not quite the mindblowing, breakout season oft projected, but a solid offensive performance and great D behind the plate. Soto gives us every reason to expect another substantial uptick in '09.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 15, 2008 12:22 PM CST reply actions 0 recs