2008 Community Projections: Alfonso Soriano

by Al on Feb 19, 2008 1:41 PM CST in Community Projections Comment 53 comments

Regardless of where you think he should hit in the batting order, you know that, assuming Alfonso Soriano is healthy (and from all accounts, he is, even though we have heard he's taking it slow so far), he'll play in 156+ games (he's done that five of the last seven years).

So, what will he do in 2008? In addition to the categories we've done for other players, let's project SB/CS for Soriano, too.

I say..

AB: 665
R: 111
H: 196
2B: 44
3B: 3
HR: 39
RBI: 96
BB: 45
SO: 155
SB: 22
CS: 8
AVG: .295
OBA: .339
SLG: .546

Alfonso Soriano's career stats at baseball-reference.com

I've closed the Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa and Aramis Ramirez threads and posted the final projections. I'll keep the Ryan Theriot thread open till tomorrow.

UPDATE [2008-2-21 17:43:20 by Al]: This thread is now closed. Here are the final projections for Soriano:

AB: 625
R: 111
H: 182
2B: 41
3B: 4
HR: 39
RBI: 91
BB: 43
SO: 143
SB: 22
CS: 8
AVG: .291
OBA: .336
SLG: .555

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Sori

AB: 659
R: 102
H: 189
2B: 39
3B: 5
HR: 38
RBI: 84
BB: 39
SO: 161
SB: 27
CS: 7
AVG: .287
OBA: .341
SLG: .539

by McRipper on Feb 19, 2008 1:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

He's fine

AB: 625
R: 125
H: 195
2B: 40
3B: 5
HR: 33
RBI: 96
BB: 40
SO: 130
SB: 35
CS: 7
AVG: .312
OBA: .353
SLG: .550

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 19, 2008 2:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Soriano... love ya better as our #5

I can't resist... He's not a leadoff hitter anymore! Let's let him knock in some runs.

AB: 599
R: 101
H: 159
2B: 42
3B: 6
HR: 41
RBI: 117
BB: 31
SO: 159
SB: 21
CS: 8
AVG: .264
OBA: .317
SLG: .561

OPS: .878 ... looks like a #5 hitter to me!

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 19, 2008 2:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Alfonso Soriano

AB - 633
R - 112
H - 194
2B - 39
3B - 4
HR - 34
RBI - 85
BB - 36
K - 142
SB - 18
CS - 5

AVG - .306
OBP - .344
SLG - .542

OPS - .886

by Ayralin on Feb 19, 2008 3:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Soriano Thoughts

The coddling of his quad at this point is sending up red flags to me. That might just be paranoia about all of the times that Wood and Prior were handled similarly, but those situations are fair warning about taking Cub staff statements at face value. Even though Lou is a bit more upfront with the media, I'll have to shave off some ABs and SBs to compensate.

AB: 510
R: 84
H: 143
2B: 35
3B: 1
HR: 29
RBI: 65
BB: 29
SO: 123
SB: 14
CS: 6
AVG: .280
OBA: .319
SLG: .524

by Qixotl on Feb 19, 2008 3:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

leading off

AB-600
R-120
H-173
2B-45
3B-2
BB-32
SO-132
SB-14
CS-4
HR-38
RBI-81
AVG-.288
OBP-.324
SLG-.560

by kranskie on Feb 19, 2008 3:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

here's a shot

AB: 665
R: 121
H: 191
2B: 41
3B: 2
HR: 44
RBI: 92
BB: 64
SO: 147
SB: 14
CS: 3
AVG: .287
OBA: .349
SLG: .555

by socalbob on Feb 19, 2008 3:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not making a prediction

...until there is more clarity on his leg problem from last year.

by MDBNIU on Feb 19, 2008 3:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

factor it in

I did with the 17 SB attempts all year. His leg did not affect his hitting at all.

by socalbob on Feb 19, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You'll miss out, then...

... because I'm going to be closing this thread long before the first exhibition game is played, and I wouldn't expect him to go all-out then, either.

As I said in the diary you posted about this, I think you're overreacting.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 19, 2008 4:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Is this blog always this dead?

I'm a relative newcomer. Does activity on this board pick up, or is it always this slow and limited?

by MDBNIU on Feb 19, 2008 5:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

over 200 posts

per day on game day threads.

by socalbob on Feb 19, 2008 5:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If my memory serves me correctly....

It wasn't uncommon to see 500+ post game threads coming down the stretch in September.

Besides, its quality over quantity ;-)

Soriano's Contract: Approximately one dollar for every pitch in the dirt that he swings at.

by Ryno8 on Feb 19, 2008 6:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess that

the most of us are in Elia's 85%, and you're in the 15%.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 19, 2008 7:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

re: Is this blog always this dead?

I personally wouldn't describe the activity on this blog as "slow and limited" -- especially considering it's February. I see Al posting everyday, sometimes twice a day, and I see several new diaries popping up every day. Maybe I'm just a glass-half-full kinda guy, though...

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 20, 2008 2:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Soriano

AB: 3
R: 3
H: 3
2B: 0
3B: 0
HR: 3
RBI: 8
BB: 1
SO: 0
SB: 0
CS: 1
AVG: 1.000
OBA: 1.000
SLG: 4.000

Out for season making a steal attempt after the intentional walk following three home runs.

Murton plays the rest of the year and posts better than expected numbers.

by frustratedfan on Feb 19, 2008 5:16 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

hitting 1.000 on the season??!! Alright!! lol

Chuck Norris is a Cubs fan...

by Walker71421 on Feb 19, 2008 5:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

who else do you see going down?

surely, you're not stopping at soriano. single-handedly mucking up the predictions--can't beat it.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Feb 19, 2008 8:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, think about it.

If Soriano is intentionally passed after three HR, there's likely someone on base (I mean, seriously: how many people get IBB with no one on?). That means he wouldn't be stealing.

I'd like to know if anyone thinks we should ignore this projection.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 19, 2008 8:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

we should ignore

all his projections because of his attitude about the process. It's either hot or cold with no middle ground. He does it to get a rise out of people. It's pretty sad.

by socalbob on Feb 19, 2008 9:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Ignore the Predictions Becuase they are

different? Firstly, its a single prediction. It doesn't change things markedly. Secondly, its what I think is going to happen. I happen to think Theriot's going to have a good year. I think Roberts is going to get traded to the Cubs and thus DeRossa, even with a good year, is not going to play that much. I think Soto's going to have a breakout year and I think that A Ram's back problems are going to end his very good season prematurely.

by frustratedfan on Feb 19, 2008 9:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Your other predictions...

... while a little "out there", weren't that far out of the realm of probability.

To say that a player will hit 3 HR on Opening Day, then get hurt caught stealing and be out for the year, is just silly.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 19, 2008 9:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

clearly...

frustratedfan is a joke and his opinions reflect a disturbed individual.

by cashcowsquirtingsourmilk on Feb 19, 2008 10:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

huh?

his other projections were equally ridiculous. Seems like he predicts injury to any player he opposes, and gives optimistic projections for players he THINKS should be starting. He's a fool.

by cashcowsquirtingsourmilk on Feb 20, 2008 12:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe...

... we should post one projection for Soriano with these numbers, and one without. If enough people post a projection, these numbers won't skew the total too badly.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 20, 2008 4:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I just dropped it.

Let's just say that frustratedfan figured out a way to outsmart the weighted average, and unless I wanted to either justify Soriano breaking the single-season home run record or spend three hours reworking my weighted average formula, dropping this forecast is about the only way to do it.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 20, 2008 3:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

When I have done this

in the past it seemed there was always a few people who would make strange projections, usually for the Cubs to fail. We would always include them. I may not be liked for this but Frustratedfan has made a prediction, no matter how absurd, and it should be counted. It was these predictions that kept the over optimism at bay, and our guesses in the end have ended up being somewhat accurate.

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 20, 2008 6:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I say..

take all the predictions...throw out the highest and lowest and use the rest.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 20, 2008 6:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oops

"firstly" is not a word and, boy, do i hope this "derossa" has a good year.

by Mr Snrub on Feb 20, 2008 9:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually...

... "firstly" is a word.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 20, 2008 9:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

oh man

My mistake. Everyone makes one.

Ever since being chided in high school by my English teacher for using "firstly", I've steered clear of it. It is sad to think of all the opportunities I've missed to use it.

by Mr Snrub on Feb 20, 2008 11:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

no, to answer your question

but rather because they are ridiculous. It's that simple.

by socalbob on Feb 20, 2008 5:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My gut instinct...

Soriano 2008

AB: 617
R: 112
H: 178
2B: 41
3B: 4
HR: 43
RBI: 95
BB: 45
SO: 110
AVG: .288
OBP: .361
SLG: .576

OPS: .937

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 19, 2008 6:27 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I forgot...

SB: 28
CS: 9

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 19, 2008 9:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey leg

I have the corner on gut feelings on this blog.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Feb 20, 2008 9:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Sori will have a great year.

PA: 775
AB: 710
R: 130
H: 217
2B: 48
3B: 6
HR: 45
RBI: 85
BB: 60
SO: 160
SB: 29
CS: 3
AVG: .306
OBA: .357
SLG: .580

You heard it here first -- an OPS north of .930 from our leadoff guy. Oh, and 20 more OF assists.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Feb 19, 2008 7:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

my prediction

G: 153
AB: 610
R: 129
H: 186
2b: 42
3b: 3
HR: 43
RBI: 79
BB: 40
AVG: .305
OBP: .348
SLG: .527

so yeah, I have predicted that three Cubs will have over 40 home runs. Maybe I am too optimistic..

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 19, 2008 8:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

43 hrs and only 79 rbi. that's pathetic.

"If you play more than two chords, you're showing off."--Woody Guthrie

by buckmulligan on Feb 19, 2008 8:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

doesn't make sense. Even when batting lead-off, 43 HRs will garner more than 79 RBI

by cashcowsquirtingsourmilk on Feb 19, 2008 10:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

is that any more ludicrous?

than that guy who did Soriano would have 3 AB and 3 HR and thats it?

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 20, 2008 6:10 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

but scratch it

Ill change it and add stolen bases:

G: 153
AB: 610
R: 129
H: 186
2b: 42
3b: 3
HR: 43
RBI: 91
BB: 40
AVG: .305
OBP: .348
SLG: .527
SB: 29
CS: 11

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 20, 2008 6:12 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I feel compelled to point out...

... based on the two projections above (45 HR, 85 RBI and 43 HR, 79 RBI), that the current record for fewest RBI with 40 or more HR in a season is 90 (Ken Griffey Jr., 1994), and the current record for fewest RBI with 45 or more HR in a season is 96 (Harmon Killebrew, 1963).

The two projections above would shatter those records by quite a bit.

JFTR.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 19, 2008 8:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Fonzie

AB: 671
PA: 718
R: 114
H: 190
1B: 105
2B: 41
3B: 2
BB: 47
SO: 144
HR: 42
RBI: 101
AVG: .283
OBP: .330
SLG: .538
OPS: .532
wOBA: .373
wBA: .298
RC: 119

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 19, 2008 9:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

fix

OPS should read .940
SB: 25
CS: 7

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 19, 2008 9:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Note...

... to those who left out SB/CS -- please go back and add them. Thanks.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 19, 2008 9:25 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

wishful thinking

AB: 620
R: 106
H: 190
2B: 44
3B: 7
HR: 35
RBI: 114
BB: 52
SO: 140
SB: 17
CS: 5
AVG: .306
OBA: .360
SLG: .569

Soriano takes a few more walks. Lou takes a page out of LaRussa's book and bats the pitcher 8th and lets Pie bat 9th most of the year. Pie gets some protection and is on base for Soriano to knock in so he gets a few more RBI.

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Feb 20, 2008 8:13 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

tony412

AB: 648
R: 114
H: 192
2B: 41
3B: 5
HR: 36
RBI: 89
BB: 47
SO: 148
SB: 26
CS: 7
AVG: .305
OBA: .342
SLG: .539

"We're going to turn this team around 360 degrees." -Jason Kidd

by tony412 on Feb 20, 2008 8:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Soriano

AB: 588
R: 101
H: 174
2B: 42
3B: 3
HR: 39
RBI: 96
BB: 45
SO: 135
SB: 23
CS: 7
AVG: .296
OBA: .372
SLG: .576

"I got a PBS mind in an MTV world"

by The Ryno and I Know on Feb 20, 2008 10:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

More of the same..

lots of homers when we're already up 4-0, lot's of K's, infuriating at-bats in key situations, lots of thrown out runners spiced with total lapses in concentration on defense.

AB: 590
R: 112
H: 174
2B: 41
3B: 3
HR: 36
BB: 40
K: 127
BA: .296
OBP: .334

by SamFels on Feb 20, 2008 1:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Please add...

... RBI, SB, CS to your projection.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 20, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That big contract...

...starts to really pay off. Unburdened by a transition to a new team and, shall we say, "positional uncertainty", Alfonso Soriano will be healthy, wealthy and wise in '08. And one of the premier hitters in Major League Baseball will have us shredding our vocal chords in adulation as he slugs his way through the season. Another 40-40-40 year? I don't think so. Although his legs will hold up, those days are behind him. He'll show flashes of speed -- I see him pushing a few extra doubles into triples this year. But, mainly, he's just going to hit (and strikeout a lot) and hit (and strikeout a lot) and hit. It'll be good enough for a 40-40 season -- and that's good enough for me. My numbers:

AB: 635
R: 105
H: 174
2B: 48
3B: 6
BB/HBP: 40
SO: 135
HR: 40
RBI: 90
SB: 23
CS: 5
AVG: .274
OBP: .317
SLG: .557
OPS: .874

Number of questionably boastful reactions to home runs: More than a few.
Number of nerve-wracking hops in the outfield: Lots.
Number of charming smiles: Infinite.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 20, 2008 8:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs