2008 Community Projections: Felix Pie

by Al on Feb 20, 2008 8:52 AM CST in Community Projections Comment 60 comments

This one ought to be interesting. Will this be the year that Felix Pie finally makes it as a major league regular? All along, I thought 2008 would be his target year to blossom. Will he be good? Decent? Great? Here's your chance.

My take: he'll become a solid regular, with hope that he could become more than that in future years. Let's do SB/CS for Pie.

AB: 501
R: 77
H: 138
2B: 29
3B: 9
HR: 9
RBI: 59
BB: 40
SO: 122
SB: 11
CS: 4
AVG: .275
OBA: .329
SLG: .423

Felix Pie's major league stats at baseball-reference.com

Felix Pie's minor league stats at baseball-reference.com

The Ryan Theriot thread is still open; I'll close that one this afternoon, and the Alfonso Soriano thread will stay open till tomorrow.

UPDATE [2008-2-20 15:36:12 by Al]: The Theriot thread is now closed and I've posted the final projection. Also, I had to change several others because I had posted the PA total instead of the AB total. All the final projections are now correct.

UPDATE [2008-2-26 11:46:12 by Al]: This thread is now closed. Here is the final community projection for Felix Pie:

AB: 479
R: 68
H: 127
2B: 26
3B: 6
HR: 10
RBI: 52
BB: 35
SO: 106
SB: 21
CS: 7
AVG: .266
OBA: .315
SLG: .411

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Comments

501 at bats

and only 11 steals? he had almost that in a third of those at bats last year.

ill go 20 sb to 5 cs.

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 20, 2008 9:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Out drinking last night Al??...

Just kidding. I'm thinking more like:

AB: 460
R: 70
H: 117
2B: 25
3B: 5
HR: 8
RBI: 40
BB: 35
SO: 105
SB: 15
CS: 6
AVG: .255
OBA: .307
SLG: .382

by Damen Jackson on Feb 20, 2008 9:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Easy as...

Pie... claims the #2 spot in the lineup in the 2nd half. All that protection will give his bat a chance.

AB: 489
R: 69
H: 141
2B: 33
3B: 5
HR: 12
RBI: 62
BB: 46
SO: 131
SB: 21
CS: 8
AVG: .288
OBA: .382
SLG: .450

OPS: .832

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 20, 2008 9:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

So, Felix Pie = Derrek Lee?

His OBP is going to be 100 points better than his batting average? So he's going to draw 100 BB's?

He will strike too many times to have the chance at 100 BB's.

Super Mario Galaxy! Get it NOW!

by TheBeerBaron on Feb 20, 2008 11:43 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's just a typo.

The OBP of the numbers he gave is .350.

by Ayralin on Feb 20, 2008 12:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's just a miscalculation...

the original poster divided times on base (H+BB) by AB instead of by plate appearances. The correct stats, based on the numbers listed, should be .288/.350/.450 (.800 OPS).

I think that's still VERY optimistic, but not insanely optimistic.

by SouthernCub on Feb 20, 2008 1:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

...I'm always biased toward...

...overperforming Iowa Cubs players. He was awesome to watch live here in Des Moines. Let's hope he can be 90% of that player.

(then again, I loved to watch Brooks Kieschnick.) play.

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 20, 2008 3:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's certainly possible...

I'd be more inclined to believe somewhere in the .730s in OPS, but .800 wouldn't be completely shocking.

The question will be how well he does at driving the ball. If he can drive the ball, his average and slugging should be enough to get at least into the mid-700s.

by SouthernCub on Feb 20, 2008 4:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My bad...

I got a B- in a statistics class in college.

An open invitation to visit Des Moines and watch the Iowa Cubs...

by IowaCubs- on Feb 20, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Felix Pie

AB - 558
R - 81
H - 150
2B - 34
3B - 9
HR - 15
RBI - 78
BB - 47
K - 144
SB - 21
CS - 8

AVG - .269
OBP - .326
SLG - .437

OPS - .763

by Ayralin on Feb 20, 2008 9:28 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

id like to second this projection

Bill James Felix Pie 2008 Projection: .283/.333/.456 16 HR 21 SB

by kylejo on Feb 20, 2008 1:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Pie starts almost every game

AB: 550
R: 88
H: 149
2B: 35
3B: 11
HR: 9
RBI: 61
BB: 40
SO: 132
SB: 21
CS: 7
AVG: .271
OBA: .320
SLG: .424

"There are no curses here...Games are won and lost on the baseball field" - Lou Piniella

by El Borto on Feb 20, 2008 9:32 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Pie Thoughts

He has had a reputation of being a somewhat slow adapter to new minor league levels (though his West Tenn stats suggest otherwise), so the way he was handled at the majors ensured his poor stats last year. With no other real option on the roster, Felix should eventually be able to get in a groove and finally adjust to Major League pitchers. I expect him to be solid from late May onwards unless Hendry panics.

AB: 530
R: 73
H: 148
2B: 29
3B: 7
HR: 11
RBI: 55
BB: 45
SO: 125
SB: 15
CS: 8
AVG: .279
OBA: .336
SLG: .423

by Qixotl on Feb 20, 2008 10:16 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I'll be satisfied if he can make these numbers

AB: 490 (he'll get double-switched out a fair amount if he's batting 7th or 8th)
R: 65
H: 126
2B: 20
3B: 8
HR: 10
RBI: 53
BB: 30
SO: 112
SB: 25
CS: 14
AVG: .257
OBA: .300
SLG: .408

It's a simple question, Doctor: would you eat the moon if it were made of ribs??

by Invalid User on Feb 20, 2008 10:45 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

The only logical conclusion...

Felix Pie 2008

AB: 532
R: 68
H: 144
2B: 36
3B: 7
HR: 11
RBI: 66
BB: 48
SO: 114
SB: 32
CS: 8
AVG: .271
OBA: .331
SLG: .426

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 20, 2008 10:46 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

My hope

for Felix is that he learns what his predecessor (Corey Patterson) never learned - pitches don't rise. If you are bending over to see if it's in the strike zone, don't swing at it. Think quick bat, not Waveland Avenue. Slap the ball around and use your speed, and you'll be in the 2 hole and not the 8 hole before you know it.

The last good Cub to wear #21 was Al Spangler.

by psennett on Feb 20, 2008 11:10 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Spring Training games televised?

I am sorry for jumping in here, but didn't think it was worthy of starting a diary.

Are Spring Training games normally televised? If so, does WGN grab them, or do they share them with Comcast?

Just curious, and very eager to watch some baseball. Thanks in advance!

Dave

by Dave in the basement on Feb 20, 2008 11:58 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Link...

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/schedule/index.jsp?c_id=chc&m=3&y=2008

Also, the game against the White Sox on the 15th is on WGN but its not on the Cubs schedule. Prob being called by Hawk and DJ.

by seang03 on Feb 20, 2008 12:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks!

Perfect, and thank you!

Dave

by Dave in the basement on Feb 20, 2008 8:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Optimism

Well, we the Cub fans, sure are optimistic.

I hope we are all right, but honestly, if we average all of our projections this team wins 100 games and I dont think thatll happen. Although, I hope it happens.

I know some people will want to roast me for not doing my own projections but oh well. I did a few, I mostly just like reading them

"Hey.....Cubs win!!!" ---Harry "I strongly dislike Steve Stone." ---Hammer

by Hammer on Feb 20, 2008 12:01 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Pie

AB: 470
R: 71
H: 126
2B: 26
3B: 7
HR: 12
RBI: 53
BB: 44
SO: 110
SB: 24
CS: 9
AVG: .268
OBA: .330
SLG: .424

by SleepyLaBeef on Feb 20, 2008 1:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Felix Pie

As time goes by my hopes for Pie increase.......dunno why........just a gut feeling. Those minor league numbers are certainly impressive. here goes:

AB.. 516
R .. 73
H.. 144
2B ..28
3B ..11
HR ..16
RBI.. 68
BB . 33
SO . 124
SB..28
CS 6
AVG...279
OBA...335
SLG .429

by plenz on Feb 20, 2008 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think you OBA...

is a touch off. The slugging too.

by Damen Jackson on Feb 20, 2008 3:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yup...

I get an OBP of .322, and a SLG of .469 with those stats.

by SouthernCub on Feb 20, 2008 4:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The spreadsheet automatically calculates...

...those stats. So it's really not a big deal.

I has a blog.

by cwyers on Feb 20, 2008 4:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Pie will surprise if patience shown

I really hope he gets 4-6 weeks, maybe even the first two months to find his groove, because his numbers in the minors are too good for him to be a clod up here, and he's probably already the best defensive CF my generation of Cub fans have or will see, and that's pretty important to. To the prediction

AB: 560
R: 72
H: 152
2b: 25
3b: 7
HR: 15
BB: 45
K: 121
Avg: .273
OBP .325

by SamFels on Feb 20, 2008 3:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Please add...

... RBI, SB, CS to your projection.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 20, 2008 4:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Whoops

Sorry Al,

RBI: 68
S: 33
CS: 7

by SamFels on Feb 21, 2008 6:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

streaky this year, better next year

AB-515
R-80
H-139
2B-30
3B-5
BB-42
SO-124
SB-14
CS-8
HR-10
RBI-56
AVG-.270
OBP-.325
SLG-.406

If you look at Pie's minor league stats, his SB% isn't that great. He may get better with experience, but I think he'll be more of a 1st to 3rd on a single and a 1st to home on a double type of guy this year.

by kranskie on Feb 20, 2008 5:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

SB%

that comment is for those who have high expectations in this category--not for those of you with lower SB numbers, and there are a good number of you represented here

by kranskie on Feb 20, 2008 5:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

so-so first year

AB: 428
R: 58
H: 112
2B: 22
3B: 6
HR: 9
RBI: 51
BB: 42
SO: 114
SB: 18
CS: 2
AVG: .262
OBA: .328
SLG: .404

by socalbob on Feb 20, 2008 5:33 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

This is the toughest one of all

Pie has the ugliest swing I've ever seen on a position player north of AA. My swing is better than his. Still, I keep telling myself that Willie McGee did OK with an ugly swing...

PA: 340
AB: 310
R: 40
H: 75 (15 IF hits)
2B: 15
3B: 3
HR: 2 (1 inside the park)
RBI: 40
BB: 30
SO: 93 (30%)
SB: 20
CS: 8
AVG: .242
OBA: .309
SLG: .329

My numbers reflect my feeling that he will platoon with someone (otherwise my BA would be much lower) and will bat 8th.

"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007

by DeRoMyHero on Feb 20, 2008 5:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Add

some hr's to that number and I agree with your projections. I hope pie suprises us but I think he will struggle a little bit like he did last year.

by cubsmania on Feb 20, 2008 7:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Pie

PA: 260
AB: 240
R: 30
H: 60
2B: 15
3B: 0
HR: 2
RBI: 20
BB: 20
SO: 80
SB: 6
CS: 8
AVG: .250
OBA: .315
SLG: .333

Pie proves to be a flop early and is replaced when the Cubs make a trade for a Big Time CF by May 1. Pie is traded to another organization, finally gets his head together at the end of the season and in subsequent years proves to be an average MLB caliber outfielder.

by frustratedfan on Feb 20, 2008 6:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

You must be a blast

at cocktail parties.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 20, 2008 8:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Grow Up

If you go up two predictions, you will see someone that predicted worse numbers for Pie. And yet, because I dare not to speak like all of the Blue Cool Aide drinkers, I get comments like your uncalled for slam. The difference between my prediction and the one above mine, is that I assume that the Cubs management are going to be different than in past years and be proactive and go out and fix the problem when it becomes clear its a problem.

by frustratedfan on Feb 20, 2008 8:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You've pretty much predicted...

... that everyone on the team will either suck or get injured. Is that realistic? Hardly.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 20, 2008 9:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The strawman cometh!

I have no problem with your prediction, numbers-wise. You think Pie will still prove incapable of hitting ML pitching: fine. It's this constant mantra of "this guy's gonna flop, this gonna get get injured, etc." It's old, it's tired, it's overwrought; you're frustrated, you're frustrating.

Perhaps you can get Banion to write a new bit.

"I've always felt that starting pitching is the most important part of the rotation." - Joe Morgan, Sunday Night Baseball 8-12-07

by gary varsho on Feb 21, 2008 7:23 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

That's gold, Jerry, gold!!!

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 21, 2008 11:09 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

lol

I'll say one thing. You're consistent !! I'm still waiting for you to fill me in on the wondrous developments that happened for Corey Patterson, Jason Dubois, Bobby Hill, Hee Seop Choi once they became ex-Cubs. After all, your mantra is that anything pumped out of the Cub farm system is worth it's weight in gold and destined for superstardom !!1

by MDBNIU on Feb 20, 2008 9:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Not convinced just yet

AB 444
R 61
H 107
2B 14
3B 2
HR 5
RBI 42
BB 36
SO 112
SB 9
CS 2
AVG .241
OBA .308
SLG .315

by DrGalazkiewicz on Feb 20, 2008 7:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

IF he plays the whole year....

AB: 481
PA: 519
R: 73
H: 130
1B: 85
2B: 28
3B: 9
BB: 38
SO: 145
HR: 8
RBI: 54
AVG: .270
OBP: .324
SLG: .453
OPS: .842
wOBA: .355
wBA: .284
RC: 65
SB: 27
CS: 7

"Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?"

by Jettero2112 on Feb 20, 2008 8:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Felix Pie

AB: 375
R: 39
H: 89
2B: 17
3B: 1
HR: 10
RBI: 38
AVG: .222
OBA: .295
SLG: .449

by MDBNIU on Feb 20, 2008 9:04 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Please include....

BB, SO, SB, CS

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 21, 2008 11:16 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I truly believe

AB 425
R 88
H 122
2B 22
3B 8
HR 15
RBI 78
AVG .287
OBA .330
SB 21

by louslovechild on Feb 21, 2008 12:25 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Please include....

BB, SO, CS

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 21, 2008 11:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

here is mine

AB 490
R 70
H: 134
2b: 25
3b: 3
HR: 9
BB: 45
SO: 119
SB: 23
CS: 6
AVG: .273
OBP: .316
SLG: .421

Live is boring until March 31st strolls by..

by Chanman25 on Feb 21, 2008 6:33 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Missed RBI

n/t

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 21, 2008 11:20 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

tony412

AB: 470
R: 65
H: 115
2B: 25
3B: 5
HR: 6
RBI: 48
BB: 38
SO: 103
SB: 15
CS: 2
AVG: .268
OBA: .320
SLG: .419

"We're going to turn this team around 360 degrees." -Jason Kidd

by tony412 on Feb 21, 2008 8:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Pie

AB-420
R-51
H-114
2B-24
3B-3
HR-9
RBI-36
SB-18
CS-2
BB-28
SO-80
AVE-271
OBP-316
SLG-407

"Harlem Furniture......You'll like our style!"

by Imtrejo on Feb 21, 2008 11:30 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

We have lift off

Like most of us, I'm not sure what to expect from Felix, but I'm not expecting that much. I do believe he'll win the starting job, and I do believe he'll hold on to it, for the most part, throughout the season. I don't think he's going to astound any of us with his bat, but I do think he'll have some great moments and, when he does get on base, his speed will be impressive. Here are my guesses:

AB: 500
R: 60
H: 137
2B: 30
3B: 8
BB/HBP: 36
SO: 110
HR: 12
RBI: 65
SB: 28
CS: 13
AVG: .274
OBP: .322
SLG: .438
OPS: .760

Hey, if he gets that close to an .800 OPS in his first full season, I'll take it. In fact, .760 is precisely the OPS that CHONE is predicting, and Bill James is actually projecting Pie to put up a .789 OPS. (Full disclosure: I liked the CHONE projection the best and used it as the launching pad for my guesses.) In any case, everyone has to start somewhere, and 2008 will be Felix Pie's blast off.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by dat cubfan daver on Feb 21, 2008 1:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Piece o' cake

AB: 500
R: 70
H: 145
2B: 30
3B: 10
HR: 17
RBI: 70
BB: 40
SO: 100
SB: 25
CS: 7
AVG: .290
OBA: .343
SLG: .492

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 21, 2008 2:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Pie

AB: 517
R: 83
H: 141
2B: 26
3B: 11
HR: 12
RBI: 58
BB: 29
SO: 117
SB: 22
CS: 6
AVG: .273
OBA: .341
SLG: .438

by McRipper on Feb 21, 2008 2:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Chuckle

.273 average, only 29 walks yet a .341 OBP? Are you figuring on Pie getting him by a pitch a crapload of times?

I'm not picking at you because my guesses aren't exactly scientific either. But I do have to chuckle at some of these extravagantly generous OBP estimates for Pie.

by MDBNIU on Feb 21, 2008 7:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think he forgot to do the math.

The correct OBA for that # of H+W/PA is .311.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Feb 21, 2008 9:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Extravagantly generous?

Well, since I posted the second highest OBP for Pie, I guess I should respond to this. Once you redo the miscalculation in the second or third post, no one predicted an OBP for Pie over .355. It is surprising to me to hear that OBPs in the .340s to .350s are extravagant. If you expect him to play in line with both his AAA and MLB stats, then .340-.350 is well within reach. If all you do is extrapolate from the handful of ABs you saw in the majors, well, then .300 is overly generous.

Compare Pie's first 170 ABs to Troy Tulowitzki's, whose career line at that time read: .224/.304/.312. Tulo ended the season, though, at .291/.359/.479 and was a ROTY candidate. Tulo and Pie aren't the same player, but a lot of rookies take time to adjust. Pie has succeeded at every level. He will adjust. His minor league numbers tell us he will.

Dunn, Duncan, Lee, Bay, and now Braun... I hope the Cubs are practicing hitting to LF!

by DGU on Feb 22, 2008 7:24 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs