Coffee Is For Closers
You can still discuss the wilds of the VWR in the post below, but for anyone who wants to change the subject, let's talk closers. Who's going to get that coffee and close for the Cubs this year?
Bruce Miles sums up yesterday's live BP sessions involving Kerry Wood, Bob Howry and Carlos Marmol, the three candidates. So far, Lou Piniella is noncommital:
"Look, whether, it's Kerry, whether it's Howry, whether it's Marmol, these guys are all capable of doing it," Piniella said. "We're going to try to do what's best for the team, what's best for the individual. I know Bob's had trouble early (in regular seasons), so let's see how he comes out of spring training throwing the ball."
Sounds reasonable to me. But in the Sun-Times, Gordon Wittenmyer says the math adds up to Marmol:
Maybe. Greg Couch agrees, and though I'm not sure I agree with him at this point in February, he does at least make a reasonable argument for his position. But then he trots out the old "let's not depend on Kerry Wood" argument:
Sigh. Yeah, I know. We've all felt this way at times. But maybe now is different, Greg. And Paul Sullivan has a cogent quote from Wood summing this all up:
Amen. Let's see how it plays out starting next Thursday. Finally, don't be surprised to see these three pitching in the fourth or fifth inning in the early spring games. Why? Because those are the innings, early on, when you are guaranteed to be facing major league hitters. In the ninth, at least in the first week or two of the spring, guys wearing #93 from the minor league camp will be hitting, and that's not the situations you'd want your closer to be facing.
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I just love...
Does it really matter all that much who it ends up being? I agree with Kerry and Al, lets let "Spring Training" do its job and find our closer for us. I feel either way we end up with a good closer.
I could make a case for ALL 3
However...
Careful what you wish for.
I fully agree.
I prefer the idea...
People overvalue the 9th inning (and blown saves in that situation) because they forget about blown saves in the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. For that reason, I want Wood and Marmol sharing the fireman duties in the 6th, 7th, and 8th. Let Howry close the door in the 9th. Marmol will get Howry more save chances than Howry would get for Marmol. Unless he proves he can't get three outs in the 9th, I'd give that job to Howry and let Marmol and Wood pitch the more important innings.
Closing Time
It seems to me that an important factor to consider is how well a pitcher gets batters out when he comes in with baserunners already on. We usually see the closer coming in with no one out and no one on, in many ways a comparatively easy situation. The closer usually gets a fresh half inning. Although most other teams put their best reliever in the closer spot (I suppose because the closer gets the glory and good pitchers often enjoy basking in glory), I think the guys who finish out the 7th or 8th have a tougher job. Wood, it seems to me, is better suited to those 7th and 8th inning scares. Generally you're looking for a guy who will pitch to one or two batters. With Wood's history of injury, I don't know that I would encourage him to pitch to three or more batters three or four times a week. I'd prefer he come in for short work. Also, with runners on base, you'd want a guy who can strikeout the guys he faces. No pitcher is perfect and Wood will fail at times but I think his ability to strike out batters would usually keep the opponent from advancing or scoring. for those reasons I think Wood seems like a good fit for the short work in the 7th or 8th.
I don't mean to undervalue the closer's role too much. It's clearly an important role that requires a good pitcher. Still, I'd say the better of Marmol and Howry should work earlier than the 9th.
by Copter OBob on Feb 22, 2008 9:52 AM CST up reply actions
Just because a lot of teams
the indians
raffy perez was almost equally as disgusting, jobo still closes.
That's who I thought of
Also, Detroit, except that their good relievers keep getting hurt. Atlanta last year had Wickman closing when they probably had better options. And iirc the Cubs had a guy name Dempster (sp?) or something like that closing when they had three other guys on the team who could have done the job. Their names were Wood, Howry and Marmol. Maybe you've heard of them.
and the best part about it is....
by bolson1076 on Feb 22, 2008 9:16 AM CST up reply actions
I'm with Al
So lets say
That's a much different question...
Sure, I'd prefer to use Nathan in the 7th/8th pressure situations, as I think those generally are the more difficult outs. But unfortunately you can't take a guy who's already been the closer and ask him to go back to middle relief.
With Marmol, though, you don't have to worry about the ego because he's "unproven." He's the youngster alongside two veterans. It's a lot easier to quiet any issues (and there appear to be no issues) with the "we're going with the vet" argument.
by SouthernCub on Feb 22, 2008 10:20 AM CST up reply actions
I'll stick to what I have
I sense that Piniella absolutely pulls his hair out when his closer does not throw strikes and Howry pounds the strike zone and is reliable. Also, Marmol has shown he is invaluable to come in at critical junctures to kill a rally in the 7th or 8th. To me, and I think to Piniella, that rally killing role is as important (maybe more important in some ways) than the closer role when you come in with the bases empty.
Regarding Kerry, there are just too many questions about his durability to thrust him into the closers role to start the year.
I agree...
This makes sense....
Marmol
Agree about innings
I would have agreed
Looking forward to finding out for real!
Lot's of home games
Closer-related
It's not that we don't already know this, but it's interesting to see in black and white how much the closer's job has changed over three decades. Closers like Billy Wagner and Trevor Hoffman have earned about 85% to 90% of their saves by pitching a single inning - no more, no less.
In contrast, only 80 of Bruce Sutter's 300 saves were of the one inning variety. He was often called in with 2 outs in the 9th to get one key out. Or he'd be brought in as early as the 6th inning to close out the game. Rollie Fingers is the champion of the marathon save - he racked up something like 19 saves of more than 3 innings. I'll post some of the stats later when I'm back home and have the chart in my hand.
Just like a real pitcher
by Copter OBob on Feb 22, 2008 3:00 PM CST up reply actions
Fingers
Kind of makes it simple for the manager, when you can bring in your closer to start the sixth inning!
Bottom line here....
When you compare this to coming into a game with a guy on 1st and 3rd with one out, you need a guy with dominating stuff to get you out with no runs. If you have that guy, it is usually the difference between going into the 9th with the lead or being behind or tied.
i agree but
wood for closer, if he can go back to back, i think its a no-brainer.
Valid point
First of all, the one pitch thing has worked out pretty well for Rivera. I am not saying Howry is in the same league as Rivera, but it shows what you can do if you know how to locate.
Howry, clearly does not have a lot of confidence in his chang up (is really a splitter), and he will throw it every 9-10 pitches or so. He does (like Rivera) throw different variations of his fastball, but they all do tend to be the same speed.
The thing I like about him is he hits his spots and he goes right after the hitter. To me, this is critical to be a reliable closer.
ill agree with you in saying
8-12 in save chances last year isnt too warm and fuzzy. what was he with the sox? he blew a fair amount. if kerry cant handle the load, then give it to howry, but if kerry's capable hes my guy.
I think your right...
The thing that scares me about Wood is his health. I don't think Piniella wants to hand the thing to Wood, only to have him go down in May or June. I think he will play it safe at the outset (with Howry) and see how things playout.
I'm not worried about the 9th inning...
In other words, it will all work itself out.
Indeed...
If you count Dempster, we have 4 capable closers... I think most of our starters are capable of getting us through the 6th inning.
Do you think that this is the reason we didn't make a play for Bedard?
You're such an optimist, Al!
Marmol will be the closer
by digitalbenjamin on Feb 22, 2008 11:14 AM CST reply actions
I'd expect...
As I noted in the diary I began the other day, Marmol has the best 'out pitch' but the darts that Howry throws are needed in the 9th.
Al & company, you're right that the 7th & 8th are more important and Wood/Marmol clearly have the demeanors to thrive in those situations.
This is quite a good situation to be in, that I'm certain most teams would die for (see, the troubles of bullpen by committee of BoSox '03).
Let the games that count begin already!
by The Ryno and I Know on Feb 22, 2008 11:50 AM CST reply actions
Ok...i would like to address the cold...
I think Kerry's problem early in is career was that he wanted to throw the ball, not pitch. I think he has finally learned that throwing and pitching are two different things. And a move to the pen has helped that as well.
K-Rod & Percy, Rivera and Wetteland
The Angels used had K-Rod, who could have been closer, but also had an established guy in Percival. They made the young guy earn his stripes, then when he was ready, they gave him the ball in the ninth. The same was true with the Yankees, who held on to Wetteland to insure Rivera had time to develop.
In both cases it was completely obvious that barring a meltdown, K-Rod and Rivera were the closers in waiting. But the teams were patient and it paid off.
I think Marmol has the stuff to be the closer, but I also think that he may not yet have the mental toughness required. I look back at his performance in the postseason as evidence that he might not have been quite ready to take the ball in the closers role.
I would just hate to see us throw him in there and have him implode. He could be a great closer for a long time if handled correctly.
Agreed
But I agree that it makes sense to follow the Percival-KRod and Wettland-Rivera model.
Howry
Marmol has the ability to strike out the side (but is going to walk some people)
Wood was ok last year but its a small sample size and he allowed some free passes as well, i think my sentimental feelings for Wood are the main reason i want him to close
Its really a nice problem to have because I see the appeal of basically ending the game if we have a lead after the 8th by using Marmol to close. But i also see the appeal of using Marmol in critical situations earlier in the game.
I would go with
7th- Wood
8th- Howry
9th- Marmol
by ksucubbie on Feb 22, 2008 2:05 PM CST reply actions
Good problem to have
Maybe he doesn't have the mentality that it takes to close? I personally think he does but i'd rather find out in April than September, if he's capable of closing games out.
The Cubs have a very solid Bullpen so whoever replaces Marmol's 7th inning duties, whether it'd be Wood, Howry or Wuertz, I don't think you'd lose a lot.
Off the Subject -- Just a Question and Comment
If any of you have received yours, turn to page 49. The caption seems to indicate that Mark DeRosa should be in the picture -- but isn't that Neil Cotts?
OT: Tampa Bay Ray's new stadium
Didn't work
Sherrill
Three choices
- Wood
- Marmol
- Howry
- Dempster
Interesting
Yeah
That said, I don't think he'd be a wise choice to close with the three other guys we have as options. I think the best reliever is best used as a fireman, 2nd best as the closer and 3rd best as the setup man (though I am contridicting myself a bit on my choices) and Dempster would not be one of the three. Basically, on this team he'd be a good long man, or mop up man.
coffee
by drone1047 @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Feb 22, 2008 4:01 PM CST reply actions
Milkshake?
by santoswoodenlegs on Feb 22, 2008 4:28 PM CST up reply actions
woo...
Gritting teeth...
THIS time.
too much info!
totally not
B) I'm glad to see someone's pop culture references are more out of touch than mine! That song is what, 5 years old? Lol!
by drone1047 @ Bleed Cubbie Blue on Feb 25, 2008 2:14 PM CST up reply actions
Too early
You know you're at spring training when you see a "closer" come in during the 3rd inning; since the regulars are usually still in the game.
I'll make a better decision myself say 3/22, the last day I see a game in sunny AZ.
PUT . . . that coffee DOWN . . .
Off Topic - Wrigley Season Ticket
I'm just happy...
by riggs on Feb 22, 2008 11:20 PM CST reply actions
Wood should be the closer because........
Late to this conversation, but
The factor I think the Cubs might be wise to consider is that when you add Saves to players' records, their expected pay goes up. Keeping Marmol from saving games could save the Cubs millions of dollars down the road in arbitration.

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