2008 Community Projections: Jason Marquis

by Al on Mar 1, 2008 5:13 AM CST in Community Projections Comment 12 comments

Sometime later this weekend or early next week, after cwyers has a look over the spreadsheet he and Imtrejo have helpfully made for tabulating the projections, I'll get the ones for Carlos Zambrano, Rich Hill, Ted Lilly and Ryan Dempster posted. In the meantime, have at Marquis. Will he be able to get back to what he did in the first half last year? Or will he be that horrid second-half pitcher who resembled the guy the Cubs attempted to rescue from the clutches of the Cardinals?

I'm voting for the former:

G 32
GS 32
IP 199
H 211
ER 100
BB 70
SO 100
ERA 4.52
WHIP 1.41

I'll have a game thread up later this morning or early this afternoon.

Jason Marquis' career stats at baseball-reference.com

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marquis

how many wins and losses?

by plenz on Mar 1, 2008 8:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Forgot those.

Make it

W 11
L 11

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 1, 2008 11:15 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Marquis

Marquis' inconsistency has been maddening. He has a live arm and all the talent in the world, but has never been able to find the level of consistency needed in the bigs. I think his era might creep up a little higher than it is is listed here--more in the 4.85 range. I'd guess his record would end up being something like 8-12.

by Chris Iafolla on Mar 1, 2008 10:27 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Marquis thoughts

Al, it is interesting to note that while you expect to see more of the "good" Marquis, you project him to have a worse WHIP and only a slightly better ERA than his final 2007 numbers. It seems to me that you are really projecting more of the same old mixed bag from him, which I can't object to.

Frankly, I am not sure what to make of Marquis. It seems like the franchise might have completely soured on him after the Dempster "promotion" and the Lieber signing, so Jason may need to have a stunning March to stick with the team. I still expect him to start all year long, but IMHO Hendry may be dumping him onto another team (with the Cubs picking up at least half of his salary) if Marquis does not earn a rotation slot.

G 33
GS 33
IP 190
W 11
L 16
H 199
ER 105
BB 75
SO 105
ERA 4.97
WHIP 1.44

by Qixotl on Mar 1, 2008 11:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Your numbers...

... aren't that different from mine, except in the ERA and W-L categories.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al on Mar 1, 2008 11:55 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed...

...and I don't think either of us are projecting anything near his April and May performances of last year, which were almost ace caliber. It looks like you are throwing in his bad June starts to your projection which tempers the enthusiasm a bit. I'm just not sure if he can repeat a 2-2.5 month solid block again, but he should have some good starts from time to time.

I Split G GS GF W L S CG SHO IP ERA H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP
+-+------------+---+--+--+--+--+--+--+---+-----+------+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+
April/Mar. 5 5 0 3 1 0 0 0 30.2 2.35 23 9 8 1 13 0 14 2
May 6 6 0 2 1 0 1 1 40 3.38 32 16 15 4 10 1 23 1
June 5 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 23 5.09 25 21 13 4 14 0 17 3

by Qixotl on Mar 1, 2008 12:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs