2008 Community Projections: Jon Lieber

by Al Yellon on Mar 3, 2008 8:23 AM CST in Community Projections

We haven't seen the prodigal Jon Lieber throw in a Cub uniform yet this spring; when he does, this afternoon vs. the Mariners at Peoria (Sean Marshall is also scheduled to go today), it will be his first appearance in a Cub uniform since August 1, 2002, a seven-inning, two-run, no-walk outing which was one of his better ones in a season cut short by injury (the Cubs won that game in extra innings, Lieber long gone, no thanks to Dr. Tightpants, who helped cough up a 3-2 Cub lead).

Lieber's been bothered by injuries again in the last year and a half, but his arm is (supposedly) sound. I wasn't in favor of this signing but if healthy, he could put up numbers similar to his 2005 season with the Phillies, which are similar to his career norms. If so, it would be one of Jim Hendry's better pickups.

One thing you know Lieber won't do is walk people -- his career walk average is 1.74 per nine innings. That ranks 45th among all starters in major league history, seven spots ahead of Greg Maddux.

G 30
GS 30
IP 189
H 196
ER 85
BB 35
SO 135
W 12
L 6
ERA 4.05
WHIP 1.222

Jon Lieber's career stats at baseball-reference.com

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tony412

G 17
GS 17
IP 87
H 102
ER 68
BB 30
SO 73
W 6
L 4
ERA 4.15
WHIP 1.28

"We're going to turn this team around 360 degrees." -Jason Kidd

by tony412 on Mar 3, 2008 8:30 AM CST reply actions

Lieber

G 31
GS 31
IP 194
H 195
ER 90
BB 44
SO 112
W 13
L 9
ERA 4.18
WHIP 1.232

"Oh well, there's always next year!!!" Every Cub fan

by McRipper on Mar 3, 2008 8:37 AM CST reply actions

** Cubs on WGN radio today? *

"It's that wonderul relief that comes when they stop hitting you in the head with a hammer."

by lostinthevines on Mar 3, 2008 9:10 AM CST reply actions

No.

MLB Audio & MLB.TV. Details in the game thread later this morning.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 3, 2008 9:17 AM CST up reply actions

Rats.

Thanks, Al

"It's that wonderul relief that comes when they stop hitting you in the head with a hammer."

by lostinthevines on Mar 3, 2008 9:23 AM CST up reply actions

WGN Radio Spring Schedule

http://wgnradio.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=38566&Itemid=182

by Neifi Puppy on Mar 3, 2008 9:31 AM CST up reply actions

Thanks for posting this.

Chicago radio/TV coverage of spring games is spotty and mostly on weekends. However, almost (and I emphasize almost) every game is on MLB Audio in some form. I think you can sign up for MLB Audio and cancel in 30 days and get your $ back -- right? If that's true you could sign up now and basically have the rest of ST free.

(Reminder, the two games remaining vs. the Angels will be on Angels radio free, thanks to Arte Moreno.)

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 3, 2008 9:41 AM CST up reply actions

It's only ten days

From MLB.com's terms of use (emphasis mine):

For Services purchased on a yearly basis (e.g., MLB.TV Premium Yearly, MLB.TV Yearly and MLB.com Gameday Audio Yearly subscriptions), the term begins when you purchase and ends on the last day of February of the next year, with one-time billing immediately following your purchase. Unless you signified otherwise at purchase, the subscription will automatically renew on March 1 of the next year at the previous year's rate. To cancel this automatic renewal feature send an e-Mail to cssubscriptionfeedback@website.mlb.com or call Customer Service at 866-800-1275.

Refund Policies for Certain Subscription Services: In order to provide the highest customer satisfaction possible, MLBAM will refund the paid purchase price of (a) a yearly subscription to MLB.TV Premium, MLB.TV or MLB.com Gameday Audio if the refund request is received within ten (10) days of the date of purchase., and (b) a monthly subscription to MLB.TV Premium or MLB.TV subscription if the refund request is received within five (5) days of the date of purchase or within five (5) days of the last billing. To request a refund, send an e-Mail to customerservice@website.mlb.com or call Customer Service at 866-800-1275. Subscriptions otherwise are not subject to refund or credit.

Old Style is the nectar of life.

by Mordecai on Mar 3, 2008 10:01 AM CST up reply actions

Thanks for posting this.

So, a carefully timed purchase of MLB Audio this month, could get you most of the games free. You'll just have to check the WGN Radio schedule to see when you could get the most value out of this provision.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 3, 2008 10:46 AM CST up reply actions

If he's healthy

I think Al's projection looks good. We probably can't expect a repeat of 2001, unfortunately, when he went 20-6 with a 3.80 ERA. That team stayed in contention until mid-September, if I recall correctly.

"Hey hey - kiss it goodbye! That one's in Milwaukee! Man oh man did he hit it. Isn't that something?" - Lou Boudreau

by danimal15 on Mar 3, 2008 9:32 AM CST reply actions

I have a real good feeling about this

Call me goofy and you won't be the first or last to do so but I have a feeling this is going to be a good signing.

G 27
GS 27
ERA 4.15
W 12
L 8
SO 130
W 70

We are all waiting for that glorious October night when we finally win it all. Until then we will continue to cheer, never do the wave and hope.

by puckishcubsfan on Mar 3, 2008 11:44 AM CST reply actions

You didn't fill in all of the categories.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by daver on Mar 7, 2008 12:09 PM CST up reply actions

Lieber Thoughts

I expect him to take the #5 slot and snap back a bit since he is out of Citizen's Bank Park. Got to shed several starts from his projection do to age related injuries though (he is a few weeks older than me, so I am not being prejudiced :) ).

G 26
GS 26
IP 162
H 179
ER 80
BB 28
SO 95
W 11
L 9
ERA 4.44
WHIP 1.28

by Qixotl on Mar 3, 2008 11:45 AM CST reply actions

Me thinks...

G 28
GS 25
IP 160
H 185
ER 80
BB 40
SO 90
W 9
L 8
ERA 4.50
WHIP 1.40

by Damen Jackson on Mar 3, 2008 12:26 PM CST reply actions

Lieber

G 28
GS 28
IP 177
H 102
ER 90
BB 29
SO 112
W 11
L 9
ERA 4.38
WHIP 1.31

by cubsfan25 on Mar 3, 2008 12:56 PM CST reply actions

I have a feeling.....

Lieber is going to end up being the #2 starter by year end.

Just one of my gut feelings....that are wrong as often as they are right.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 3, 2008 1:07 PM CST reply actions

I won't even post my projections...

I say he makes less than 10 starts and get yanked out of the rotation.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 3, 2008 1:14 PM CST reply actions

Interesting that...

you and the poster directly above you have such wildly divergent views. Either of you care to toss out some ballpark numbers? I'm actually very interested in both your thoughts.

by Damen Jackson on Mar 3, 2008 1:19 PM CST up reply actions

O rly?

how is this then..
G 9
GS 9
IP 55
H 50
ER 37
BB 28
SO 38
W 1
L 6
ERA: 6.05
WHIP: 1.51

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 3, 2008 1:52 PM CST up reply actions

These predictions are based on what?

Lieber has never had a era higher then 4.93 in the last 10 plus seasons he pitched. Even the year he had a 4.93 era his FIP was alot better, and he pitched much better on the road. So he really pitched better then his era showed, he pitched in a tough ballpark and had some bad luck. So you think this is the year Lieber finally just loses it or something? Because there's nothing that would say he should struggle that bad in his career. Especially last season he had a 3.72 era in his first 10 starts(12 games), before hurting his foot and trying to pitch through it in his final two starts.

by cubsfan25 on Mar 3, 2008 3:40 PM CST up reply actions

Oh man.

I said in the beginning that I wasn't going to even post numbers because I "predicted" that he wouldn't even make 10 starts before he got taken out of the rotation. I suppose I'm basing my numbers on my first "prediction", hence the bad numbers. Yes he has never had an ERA over 4.93. So. What. Before you clicked this link you'd probably never seen a kid balancing a barracuda on his head before. I only posted the numbers at the request of Damen Jackson, and I made them up pretty quickly off the top of my head (kinda like the fish boy). I should have just kept them to myself I guess. My grandfater always told me to never make predictions anyway, especially about the future.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 3, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions

I so...

was not looking for a firestorm, just a bit more info. Thanks for the opinion, and sorry about the heat.

by Damen Jackson on Mar 3, 2008 5:06 PM CST up reply actions

No worries...

you can't make everyone happy all the time...unless you show them a Don Knotts montage!

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 3, 2008 5:10 PM CST up reply actions

I have said

it before, that is one fine looking man.

"You can't take life to seriously, you don't get out of it alive"

by wild bill on Mar 3, 2008 5:20 PM CST up reply actions

I'd guess

14-15 wins with an ERA around 4.0.

I won't drill down into all the other numbers, but I think Lieber comes on strong in the 2nd half and will be someone Lou will trust.

"I don't like them fellas that drive in two runs but let in three" Casey Stengel

by MPH73 on Mar 3, 2008 1:37 PM CST reply actions

Lieber mania

G 26
GS 26
IP 170
W 11
L 7
ERA 4.44
WHIP 1.28

by MDBNIU on Mar 3, 2008 1:55 PM CST reply actions

You didn't either.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by daver on Mar 7, 2008 12:10 PM CST up reply actions

2001

Did Jon and Kerry throw backtoback one hitters in 2001 or am I channeling Clemens and misremembering?

We are all waiting for that glorious October night when we finally win it all. Until then we will continue to cheer, never do the wave and hope.

by puckishcubsfan on Mar 3, 2008 2:57 PM CST reply actions

Yes, they did.

Lieber: May 24, 2001

Wood: May 25, 2001

Against different teams, no less.

"That's my opinion and if you don't like it, well, I have others." ~ Groucho Marx

by Al Yellon on Mar 3, 2008 3:06 PM CST up reply actions

Lieber

G 11
GS 7
IP 47
H 60
ER 24
BB 8
SO 28
W 2
L 4
ERA: 5.3
WHIP: 1.44

It becomes quite clear to Lou that Lieber just doesn't have it anymore. The ERA is higher because Lieber is put in a couple of times to "mop up" after a blow out loss. As a starter he's closer to 5 (on the high side).

by frustratedfan on Mar 3, 2008 5:13 PM CST reply actions

110 Win Season

BTW. Looking at these Lieber predictions, if they are right, the Cubs will win 110 wins. Most of these predictions are laughably bad and project that Lieber is not only going to be effective at 38, he's going to come close to a career season.

2002 was the last time that Lieber had an ERA under 4.20 and that was before a major arm injury. And yet 50% of the predictors are predicting he's under 4.2 Further his career average is 4.28. And yet more than 50% of the predictors are saying he will better his career average... one poster by nearly a quarter run.

Crazy talk.

by frustratedfan on Mar 3, 2008 5:20 PM CST reply actions

Who shit in your corn flakes?

"Oh well, there's always next year!!!" Every Cub fan

by McRipper on Mar 3, 2008 6:05 PM CST up reply actions

I dunno about sub 4.20 era

But there's no reason to believe at age 38 Lieber still can't be a good 4th starter. Lieber is just turing 38 this April, there are a bunch of pitchers who are older then Lieber who are still pitching well. I don't think Lieber stuff is any different then two or three years ago. He hasn't been as due to the hitter friendly ballpark and some bad luck.

07-4.52 era in 12 starts(4.73 era in 14 games)
Home ERA-5.26
Road ERA-4.19(even better era on road as SP)

FIP-3.82- XFIP-4.00

06-4.93 era in 27 starts(4.52 era in second half)
Home ERA-5.18
Road ERA-4.64

FIP-4.60-XFIP-4.40

In 2005 Lieber was very good still(like Lilly/Hill good)

05-4.21 era in 35 starts
Home ERA- 4.38
Road ERA- 4.05

FIP-4.13- XFIP-3.83

So with road era's of 4.19,4.64 and 4.05 on the road over the last three years, and FIP/XFIP being much better then his era's over the last three years. To go with his very good career numbers at Wrigley. All signs point to Lieber numbers being pretty good with us this year. So saying Lieber will suck and be removed from the rotation after 9-10 starts is just as much crazy talk as Lieber having a sub 4.20 era this year.

by cubsfan25 on Mar 3, 2008 6:12 PM CST up reply actions

This John Lieber..

Might do pretty good for us...but I'm not holding my breath that the 38 year old one is going to provide much in the way of "quality ML pitching". Just my opinion.

As I've told you before, I never repeat myself.

by santoswoodenlegs on Mar 3, 2008 6:18 PM CST up reply actions

More "Crazy Talk"

G: 26
GS: 24
IP:157
H: 181
BB: 32
SO: 106
W: 11
L: 8
ERA:4.54

How about that, no more Citzens Bank park, where I can jack it out, better health, infield grass heavy, I say 11 wins from no. 5 in the rotation.

by Johnny Callison was a Cub on Mar 3, 2008 6:11 PM CST reply actions

The Vet

Seeing as how Lieber's injury last season was not arm-related, and he got plenty of rest last year because of that injury, I think he's going to do an acceptable job as a dependable, back-of-the-rotation veteran. I see him putting together a season not unlike '05 with the Phillies. Not quite that good, but pretty good nonetheless.

G: 31
GS: 31
IP: 205
H: 207
ER: 97
BB: 45
SO: 135
W: 13
L: 11
ERA: 4.26
WHIP: 1.23

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2008 Chicago Cubs starting outfield: Soriano-Pie-Fukudome. Let it be.

by daver on Mar 7, 2008 12:08 PM CST reply actions