Let us start from the top:

(Zambrano) $17.75M +  (Soriano) + $16M  + (Ramirez) $15.65M + (DLee) $13M + (Lilly) $12M + (Fukudome) $12M + (Marquis) $9.85M + (Harden) $7M + (DeRosa) $5.5M + (Samardzija) $2M  = $110.5M  which is 93% of the Cubs 2008 salary.

This represents 4 starting pitchers and 2 OF'ers, 3 IF'ers and only 8 out of 25 players on the active roster and not even the 40 man.

Now Arbitration eligible: all figures 2008: Gregg ($2.5M), Gaudin ($1.775M), Johnson ($1.3M), Wuertz ($860K), Cotts ($800K), Cedeno ($407K) =$7.04M. Okay this represents $117.6M  (99% of the 2008 salary)

Reserve Clause:K Hill ($475K), R Hill ($430K), Marmol ($430K),,  Theriot ($428K), Fontenot (407K), Pie ($401K), Guzman ($401K), Soto ($401K), Hart ($3921K), Marshall ($392K), Ascanio ($392K), Hoffpauir ($392K)  = $4.94M. This represents $122.5M or  1.03% over 2008 salary without any 2009 increases for arb eligible or increases under the reserve clause players.

Let me make some more assumptions:  Gregg, Gaudin & Johnson are kept and all avoid arbitration, while Wuertz, Cotts, and Cedeno are dealt.   Gregg goes to at least $3.5M, Gaudin to $2.5M and Johnson to $2.6M or $8.6M adding $1.5M more.

That takes the salary to $125M.

Cubs do not sign Henry Blanco and keep K Hill, Rich Hill and Samardz (they fight it out for 5th starter spot) , both Hills get minimum increase ($500K), Theriot gets ($500K) and Fonty ($430K), Soto is given ($500K), Guzman ($428K), Ascanio ($401K), Hoffpauir $400K) while the rest are traded.or $3.68M

Now this is down to $123.5M

Now what does this tell you?

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Peavy, still relatively young, had a elbow (not shoulder) issue last in the midst of a long term contract for a deal that is now being reported to include one of two Cubs best prospects---Samardzija or Vitters plus others. I think this is both a money deal and talent deal and quite clinical since Peavy's $8.M is a bargain for 2009 but it  suddenly jumps to market price;  $15M in 2010, $16 M in 2011 and $17M in 2012, and then an 2013 option for $22M, or a $4M severance buyout.

Okay, Peavy replaces a more expensive Dempster in the rotation, that now is transparent, leaving Marquis and Hill to battle for the 5th starter spot as SP lineup now appears, Z, Peavy (if acquired), Lilly, Harden, Marquis or Hill.

Now comes the rest of the moves; LH bats in RF and other places, relievers and role players. I think the Cubs are trying to unload Soriano as they see the Manny Ramirez sweepstakes creating a market for an offensive LF'er. Can it be done is unknown. Soriano is a big player where when he was on the field the Cubs won big. Can he be replaced with the available second tier FA's or available arb eligible players ripening on cheap clubs is another question. I think his biggest problem is that he is a hitter out of position. He would be a great #2 or good #3 but not leadoff. But also Cubs need left handed power bats to break up Ramirez, Lee and Soto.

ll is

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Now that the Presidential Election is over I can come up for air. Illinois is now center of the world.

Now let me see what I am figuring out. Jake Peavy is top of the choice. Cubs are willing to give up Samardzija, Pie (two good proven prospects) plus fill ins like Cedeno, Hart, Marshall, Fontenot (who is a nice role player) and possibly a prospect in Veal.Sounds like a lot of players, for a rent a pitcher who is 27 and an All Star and another almost Ace. That said Peavy is approaching is prime year. Losing Samardz could be costly but not core....Pie is expendable period especially with Dome going to CF with a possible platoon.Marshall as well.

Fontenot is also expendible as is Cedeno since I think the Cubs are seeking a real SS and that means Theriot is moved to the role of utility/spot starter....

This dovetails into the Furcal chatter.....which would solve the SS and lead off problem where having Theriot as a utility spot starter makes sense.

So that leaves Dempster where I see chatter that he is going to be resigned. Now that also goes to Samardz where if the Cubs don't sign Wood leaves a hole.

Do I have it all? Well no.

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You win or lose championships from your stars (80%) of the contribution comes from 20% of your players and visa versa.

When you are swept three games consecutively then you have to evaluate and see what is missing.

In my book DLee and ARamirez are very good players, but not stars. DLee when he won with Florida was their #6 hitter, a very good compliment player but not the star.

The same for Zambrano, he always has been very good but not really the ace...Harden might have ace stuff and Dempster Ace record but neither are really ace's. They are all good, very good.

Same for Soriano....great compliment player.

So what to do?

Find a few stars, real stars.

What does the landscape offer you in short there are only two real stars in the FA market, CC Sabbathia and Rafael Furcal (in their positions)  and if the Cubs really get a true owner who wants to win than I would go for both,  CC is the kind of ACE on a team that would make Harden and Z very good #2 & #3 starters and offer the club the option to resign Dempster or go to the farm and bring up a starter. 

Furcal solves the big hole in the lineup where the club needs a left handed bat at the top who has speed and real OBP run producing. Then that leaves Theriot/Fontenot to work out 2B.

Now what?  DeRosa, Fukudome in the OF.....

There will be two players available in the off season that real stars....Matt Holiday and Ichiro Suzuki....Mariners need to restart from the beginning and Holiday is the ROX ticket to rebuild. They need pitching, which the Cubs could offer in boat loads, and a few good players. Holiday is leaving and he could play RF leaving CF open.If Ichiro than he plays CF and you find a RF'er.

My thoughts are that the Cubs could trade either Theriot or Fontenot,. DeRosa, Marquis, R Hill, Marshall, Wuertz, Ceda, Hauffpauir, Pie, to the market place and attempt to make one of these trades. Would you trade Ramirez for one of these stars? I would trade Ramirez and move DeRosa to 3rd in a second if it meant the Cubs got Holliday or Suzuki.

That is the vexing issue....Because Rami for all his good hits during the year has not had a playoff...kind of like ARod.

Whatever you do you must get real stars.

Since 1991 (outside of 1994 which is an asterisk because of the strike) the Braves and Yankees were in the playoffs, in fact from '95 to '05 both teams were in, but with the Yankees being supplanted by the Rays this year this era is over.

The Braves did it with a great 3-man rotation, good defense and a balanced offense where now only Smoltz and Chipper remain from that era. The Yankees did it with a solid offense led by Jeter, Rodriquez, Giambi, Williams and a good rotation that they brought in pitchers like Clemons or Johnson to team with Pettitt and Mussina before the best closer in the game.

This is the Cubs second year in a row in the playoffs, along with Philly, RedSox and Angels are back in.

The Cubs made the first big statement in stringing playoff berths by picking up Piniella's option through 2010. If you look at the Yankees and Braves they had one manager through that era---Cox and Torre (whom the Cubs face).They have stability in the field (like the Yanks) where only CF is in question next year. They have a stable bench with Fontenot, Cedeno and Blanco where they could make a change with Ward and a few OF's. They have some stability with their rotation where Dempster is a FA and Wood (and Howry) are free agents.

Here is hoping for an era....they have a chance since their payroll can still grow with FA signings of Dempster, Wood and possibly a big star like what Atlanta did with Maddux or the Yanks did with Giambi---because talent inserted into a talented club wins. 

GO CUBS and beat the Dodgers THREE STRAIGHT!

Dodgers:

1. CF Matt Kemp--290, 18 HRs, 76 RBIs, 35 SB or SS Rafael Furcal out since May with back problems
   
2. C Russell Martin--.280, 13, 69, 18 SB)
3. LF Manny Ramirez (acquired July 21 fro Bos) 332, 37, 121 overall
4. RF Andre Ethier--.305, 20, 77
5. 1B James Loney--.289, 13, 90
6. 3B Casey Blake (acquired at ASB from Clev) .274, 21, 81 overall
   
7. 2B Blake DeWitt--.264, 9, 52, or CF Matt Kemp
   
8. SS Angel Berroa--.230, 1, 16 or 2B Blake DeWitt
9. Derek Lowe RH (14-11, 3.24 ERA -itched two good games this year against the Cubs) 
   

Starters (GAME 2) Chad Billingsley RH( 16-10, 3.14, 201 strikeouts),  (GAME 3) Hiroki Kuroda RH(9-10, 3.73), TBD (GAME 4)RH Greg Maddux (acquired from SD; 8-13, 4.22 overall) OR Clayton Kershaw LH (5-5, 4.26 in 22 games, 21 starts).

Bench players of note: Pierre OF, Garciaparra IF, Kent IF, Furcal or Berroa IF, Ellis C

Bullpen: Closer---Jonathan Broxton RH (3-5, 3.13, 14/16 saves), Takashi Saito RH (4-4, 2.49, 18/21 saves),  Joe Beimel LH (5-1, 2.02), Cory Wade RH (2-1, 2.27),  Chan Ho Park RH(4-4, 3.40),

CUBS

1. LF Alfonso Soriano--.280, 29, 79, 19 SB
   
2. SS Ryan Theriot--.307, 1, 38, 22 SB)
3. 1B Derrek Lee--.291, 20, 90
4. 3B Aramis Ramirez--.289, 27, 111
   
5. CF Jim Edmonds (acquired May 9 from SD) .235, 20, 55 overall
   
6. C Geovany Soto--.285, 23, 86),
   
7. 2B or RF Mark DeRosa--.285, 21, 87,
   
8. RF Kosuke Fukudome--.257, 10, 58, 12 SB or Mike Fontenot 2B
9. Ryan Dempster RH (17-6, 2.96), (GAME 2) Carlos Zambrano RH (14-6, 3.91),  (GAME 3) Rich Harden RH ( acquired from Oak---10-2, 2.07 in 25 starts overall), (GAME 4 IF NEC)LH Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09).

Bench Players of Note: Johnson OF, Fontenot If, Ward IF/OF, Cedeno IF, Blanco C, TBD

Bullpen: CLOSER  Kerry Wood RH(5-4, 3.26, 34/40 saves),  Carlos Marmol RH(2-4, 2.68, 114 strikeouts in 87 1-3 IP, 82 games),  Bob Howry RH(7-5, 5.35),  Neal Cotts LH(0-2, 4.29),  Sean Marshall LH(3-5, 3.86 in 34 games, 7 starts),  Jason Marquis RH(11-9, 4.53 in 29 games, 28 starts),  Jeff Samardzija RH(1-0, 2.28).

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Rogers has this homer call which is nice:

1. Cubs
2. Crimson Hose (Is that what the Indians wore at the Tea Party?)
   
3. "Just call me" Rays (named after the movie Mystic River)
4. The Artful Dodgers ( 4th really....hmmm well after the ASB)
5. Female Horses...
6. The Sausage Racers of the Great White North  (Come on they bearly got in)
   
7. California's Pagan Worshipers (7th?  with the best record? hardly)
8. The Decaplets (because it takes 10 to play in the AL)
   
9. Blanco Stockings   (Because I like Henry)

Well Rogers hmmm the final power rankings...here are mine?

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Starting lineups by position:

• Catcher  (slight edge to Cubs with Soto's power #'s and run production)
  

Martin (.286)13-HR 69-RBI (.781 OPS) .365 CERA  23% CS   Soto  (.285) 23-HR 86-RBI (.886-OPS)  ..380-CERA  26% CS  

• First Base  (slight edte to Cubs with Lee's more power and fielding % plus experience)
  

Looney (.283) 13-HR 90-RBI (.772-OPS) .991 F% ZR .842   Lee (.291) 20-HR 90-RBI (.823-OPS) .993 F% .860 ZR

• 2nd Base (edge goes to DeRosa due to power #'s and versatility)
  

Kent (.280) 12-HR 59-RBI (.745-OPS) .976F% .809 ZR  DeRosa (.285) 21-HR 87-RBI  (.857-OPS) .976F%  .814-ZR

• Shortstop (if Furcal is healthy and ready edge goes to them otherwise it is push)
  

Furcal (just returned to the lineup after being out for most of season Theriot (.307) 1-HR 39 RBI (.745-OPS) .945 F% .816 ZR

• Third Base (Edge to Ramirez power and run production)
  

Blake (.274)  21-HR 81-RBI .808-OPS .985F% .764-ZR  Ramirez (.289) 27-HR 111-RBI .944 F% .748-ZR

• Left Field (Edge to Ramirez)
  

Ramirez (.332) 37-HR 121-RBI 1.031 OPS .985 F% .806-ZR Soriano (.280) 29-HR 75-RBI .876-OPS .975 F% .821-ZR  

• Centerfield ( slightest edge to Edmonds based on OPS, ZR and experience)
  

Kemp (.290) 18-HR 76 RBI ,.799 OPS .981 F% ..849 ZR  Edmonds (.235) 20-HR 56-RBI .822-OPS .975 F% .856-ZR

• Rightfield (Edge to Ethier more power and batting)
  

Ethier (.305) 20-HR 77-RBI .885-OPS 1.000 F% .884-ZR Fukudome (.257 10-HR 56-RBI .738-OPS .980 F% .894-ZR

• Starting Pitching

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By Paul Sullivan |Tribune reporter

11:56 PM CDT, September 27, 2008

MILWAUKEE - Jeff Samardzija will make the Cubs' postseason roster Saturday, while veteran Chad Gaudin likely will be left off.

Samardzija's status was shaky because of some recent outings. After throwing 14 1/3 scoreless innings in August, he has a 5.40 earned-run average in September with eight walks and 11 hits allowed over 8 1/3 innings.

Manager Lou Piniella wanted to see Samardzija get ahead in the count and throw his split-fingered fastball more often, and it seems to have gotten him back in a groove.

"I don't think I was ever really out of [a groove]," Samardzija said. "It was just a matter of taking a little different approach. Mentally I was having some success [earlier], so maybe I was trying to take it too far instead of just going up and attacking the zone."

 

So does that mean Howry on....with Wood, Marmol, Cotts, Marquis, and Marshall?

I am happy, having walked home from a neighborhood party where I got to smile as if I ate the canary with sad Rockies Fans, Braves Fans, Cardinals Fans and most of all YANKEE FANS....it is a neighborhood party that is called BOOKENDS of the baseball season where we have a Opening Day party and a closing weekend party called FAN APPRECIATION PeakEquinox.  

The thing is the Cubs are on top this year despite Dave and his wife who are of the Red Sox Nation who maintains that until they lose they are on top--yeah in 2007. That said the Cubs are on top this year, where Ward smacks a HR in game 160 and then Fukudome hits a icing on the cake to put the game out of reach when BIG MO was rising in Brewerland.

Tomorrow the concensus of the neighborhood that is contrarian in Colorado where we like baseball more than Football was that it would be good for baseball if the Cubs beat Milwaukee and the Marlins did the same for the Mets so we had something to talki about on Monday.

The Brewers are talented but still don't know how to play winning baseball and either does Cedeno, but he is the 23rd or 24th player on the team, gosh I kind of wish we had Counsel but we have ONEDEC.   My Rox neighbor said that either way the Brewers or Mets are backing in and it is not like the momentum that the ROX had last year so the best teams all year should prevail.

The thing is we all agreed is that the Cubs are fun to watch. They play the game almost every situation like winners, like Fontenot getting that two run base hit early in the game stroking the baseball on a line to RF. Jim said I didn't realize that Fontenot is batting .301 or has 9 HR's and is a substitute.....what gives? Or Fukudome smashing his 10th HR in the back end of the game.  The best came when Bill, the Yankee fan said he would love to have Marquis on the Yankees...and I said he is not that well liked....how come he said he is solid.

GLEE....and now I just want to say beat the Brewers tomorrow and win another series....our 5th in a row and finish 13-11....just glee