Richard Justice with a provocative column:

Goodbye, Jose Valverde. You, too, Ty Wigginton. Pick up your lovely parting gifts at the door.

The Astros seem likely to trade both of them in the next few weeks. You won’t like the reason. Don’t shoot the messenger.

The Astros finished last season with a payroll of around $100 million after the acquisitions of Randy Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins. To keep that team together for 2009 would cost about $120 million.

That’s the number the Astros have come up with after factoring in the raises Valverde, Wigginton and Wandy Rodriguez probably will get in arbitration. Valverde and Wigginton will be free agents after the 2009 season.

Plus, Carlos Lee’s salary jumps from $12 million to $18.5 million in each of the final four years of that six-year, $100-million deal.

At a time when almost every professional sports franchise is nervous about how the economic crisis will affect season-ticket sales, sponsorships, etc., Drayton McLane is hoping Tal Smith and Ed Wade can keep the payroll in the $100 million range, according to industry sources.

Later he says:

Now about winning in 2009. The Astros still believe they’ll be competitive.

Wade sees a rotation of Roy Oswalt, Brian Moehler, Rodriguez and Wolf as good enough to keep the Astros within range of a playoff spot. What the Astros really need is a young starter to make an impact.

In the off season before 2007, we had quite a few posts on this board about Koji Uehara, a Japanese RH pitcher who is a 2 time winner of the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young.  There was a clamor for the Astros to get into the bidding for Uehara.  As it turned out:, the Yoimuiri Giants pulled out a technicality which prevented him from becoming a free agent and forcing him to play in Japan in 07 and 08.  The Astros went on and traded for Jason Jennings. 

At age 33, Uehara is now ready to become a free agent in the major leagues.  But I don't hear the same clamor about signing him.  The fact that he is two years older probably is one reason; another is that he battled injuries in 2008.  His stats and bio:

http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=uehara

http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=uehara

But the fact remains that he was premier pitcher in Japan.  He was the strike out leader in the World Baseball Classic and was the winning pitcher in the critical game with Cuba to allow Japan to win the WBC.  According to his Wikipedia page, he has never lost in international competition.  He can be used as either a late inning reliever or starter.  The Giants used him as a closer in 2007, and some speculated that they did so in order to reduce his value in the U.S. major leagues.  Reportedly, he throws a low 90's fastball, a forkball, and screwball-type pitch against RHB. He also has excellent control.

According to MLBTradeRumors.com, the Angels, Mets, and Orioles are interested in Uehara.  So, naturally, my question is: why not the Astros?  Could he be a cheaper possibility for the rotation?  Recall the kind of success that Hideo Nomo had when he first pitched in MLB..  I could see perhaps the same effect for Uehara.

Perhaps Ed Wade should ask Roger Clemens to help out by giving Uehara a call. Reportedly, Uehara is a fan of Clemens and both became friends when Clemens visited Japan in 2006.  I wonder if Kaz Matsui and Uehara are friends?  They are about the same age and must have known each other in the Japanese league.

Fangraphs now shows Bill James' 2009 projections for ML batters and pitchers.  Like last year, these projections from Bill James' annual handbook complement the wide array of stats at Fangraphs.  You will find the James projections on the player page for each player.

I don't put a huge amount of stock in the projections by James, or by any other forecaster, whether it is Pecota, ZIPS, or CHONE.  But they are interesting to peruse. And comparing the projections for a particular player by various forecasters is a good way to identify players whom have a higher consensus among various projection methods, or conversely cause more divergence.   Also, projections like those by Bill James may help reign in some tendencies toward fanboy tunnel vision.  The projections may temper excessive enthusiasm about a player's future production, or perhaps bring some realism to overly harsh verdicts about players on your team who had bad years.  So, now, let's get to some of James' projections for Astros' players.

I tend to view batting average projections as less reliable, so I will stick to the OPS projections below.  Of course, you can look at all the stat projections for a player by going to the Fangraphs site.

(OPS 2009)

Berkman  .954

Lee .879

Matsui .729

Blum .671

Loretta  .729

Pence .865

Newhan  .750

Erstad  .639

Wigginton  .800

Quintero  .656

Towles  .748

Tejada .786

Bourn  .656

His projections show a few key players regressing, even though by a marginal amount in most cases.  Berkman and Lee aren't quite as good as last year, but they are still expected to post a nice OPS.  That isn't particularly surprising to me, though each could still add 70 or more points to their OPS, if we are lucky.  James' projections suggest what many of us suspected, that Wiggy had his career year last season.  Wigginton's .800 OPS would be disappointing, but still acceptable at 3d base.  The projected decline in Matsui's OPS would be even more disappointing.  The projections anticipate noticeable declines in batting average, OBP, and SLG for Kaz, but the forecasts appear to be in line with Matsui's career numbers.  We can hope that the projections don't account for an improvement in Kaz's offense which coincided with leaving New York City.  Erstad is expected to decline also, probably reflecting a trend which existed in his career before he came to Houston.

The catcher position is projected to be in better shape than perhaps we anticipate.  Certainly, I would gladly accept a .748 OPS by Towles next year.  You can look at Bourn's forecasted .656 OPS as a glass half full or half empty.  If you are inclined toward the former view, then you might be downright giddy about a 100 point increase in his OPS, and a .320 OBP which is not disastrous.  However, a sub-.700 OPS is still too low for a starting CFer, and the OBP isn't as high as you seek in your lead off man.  The Bourn projection doesn't really surprise me; a mid-.500's OPS is too low to reflect his true talent level.  My guess is that James is trusting a MLE conversion of Towles' minor league stats in order to arrive at his projection.

Let's go the starting rotation.  I will show the projected ERA and FIP.

(ERA, FIP)

Oswalt, 3.50, 3.50

Wolf 4.29, 4.45

W. Rodriguez 4.45, 4.46

Moehler  4.93, 4.78

Backe 5.49, 5.48

There is some good and bad.  Oswalt is fine.  Wolf's ERA is fine too; I would accept that ERA from him.  It's not worth $10 million/year, but I might guess a worse result. Wandy's ERA seems too high; I'm not sure if that is my fan optimism speaking or if it reflects the more in depth knowledge of an individual player that comes with being a fan.  Moehler regresses, and it's about what many of us would expect.  Backe's ERA is forecasted as horrible, albeit better than the horrendous number from last year.

Without going into detail (you can look it up, if interested), I will simply summarize the relief corps projections as quite good.  Valverde, Geary, Brocail, Sampson, and Hawkins are all forecasted to have fine years.  Wright and Byrdak are 4-ish ERA projections.  If the Astros don't re-sign Brocail, they may have a fairly big hole to fill, though, particularly if Sampson doesn't recover quickly from his surgery.

Given the weakness of the rotation projections, let's look at few plausible free agent pitcher forecasts.

(ERA, IP)

Sheets 3.39  186 IP

Garland  4.38 186 IP

Dempster 3.89  195 IP

Hampton 4.61 132 IP

Burnett 3.62  224 IP

Oliver Perez  4.53 204 IP

Lowe  3.60 206 IP

Sabbathia  3.48  240 IP

Of course, the projections don't account for Sheet's recent injury, but his forecast is good.  Garland looks like a Wolf clone.  You can see why Sabbathia and Lowe are likely to sign at a very high cost...it's a combination of great run prevention and durability.

The Chronicle's J.J. Ortiz listed off-season priorities for the Astros' front office, and included a reserve shortstop.  This makes sense.  Loretta appears to be gone.  Newhan doesn't play shortstop.  Manzella hit poorly at Round Rock.  Compounding the problem is the perceived need to give Tejada more rest.  Left to his own devices, Tejada would try to be an iron man, but at his age, more down time may be necessary to keep him recharged.  The pattern of Tejada's offensive performance last season (great start but declining greatly after that) gives some credence to the idea of keeping him fresh...or at least trying that tactic to see if it helps.

One thought which comes to mind--and this probably is unlikely---is Adam Everett.  Would Everett be willing to play the back up role?  At this point, I'm not aware of any teams that would be looking to make Everett their starting shortstop (unless the Twins bring him back).  Everett's defense probably has diminished a tick, his offense hasn't improved, and he is subject to greater bouts with his back problems.  All of which seem to point to a reserve role at this stage of his career.  However, even if his defense has diminished from its previously high level, the range based defensive metrics still say he was one of the better defensive shortstops last year.  Also, Everett by all accounts was a leader on the team, and perhaps could replace some of the leadership provided by Loretta.

As I said, probably unlikely, but it would be an interesting twist if it happened.  Other very cheap possibilities which Wade might consider, include Tomas Perez or Danny Klassen.  Both are older shortstops who played with Round Rock for a time last year.  Perez was on the big league club for awhile, but I wasn't impressed.   Klassen probably is more of an offensive shortstop, and has posted good power numbers at Round Rock from time to time, making me wonder what he would do if he was put on a major league roster. But at this point, his major league chances probably have passed.  Or the Astros could use Eric Bruntlett...whoops, he was traded...and last seen in the World Series.

Any reactions?

Go here to see the list of minor league free agents.  No exciting finds stuck out in that listing.  Just for your information, here are the minor league free agents who played for the Astros last year:

Houston Astros (25)
RHP: Erick Abreu (Hi A), Jack Cassel (AAA), Ron Chiavacci (AAA), Chance Douglass (AA), Paul Estrada (AA), Bo Hall (AA), Ryan Houston (AAA), Kyle Middleton (AAA), Josh Miller (AAA), Jose Oyervidez (AA), Nick Regilio (AAA)
LHP: Doug Arguello (Hi A), Ray King (AAA), Mark McLemore* (AAA)
C: Julian Henson (Lo A)
2B: Richard Paz (AAA)
3B: Rob Cosby (AA)
SS: Osvaldo Fernando (AA), Danny Klassen (AAA), Roberto Mena (Hi A)
OF: Jarred Ball (AA), Nick Gorneault (AAA), Val Majewski (AAA), Ray Sadler (AAA), Todd Self (AAA)

By the way, I thought Todd Self decided to go into coaching in the Astros' minor league organization this year.  Maybe he still has the bug for playing.

As I said, I don't have any exciting finds. I do see quite a few ex-Astros on this list. Maybe Baseball America or somebody else will write up a more thorough review of the list and come up with suggestions.

Guessing that the outfield and middle infield might be a possible area where a minor league free agent might have an opportunity to compete for a utility back up position, here are a couple of long shot ideas: John Rodriguez, Tony Graffanino, Callix Crabbe, Rob Mackowiac.

David Pinto at Baseballmusings.com has developed a defensive measurement system called Pobabilistic Model of Range (PMR).

Baseballmusings.com has begun crunching numbers for the 2008 version of the model.  PMR is one of the range based defensive measures which uses play by play data. The PMR methodology has several features which are different from most zone based methods, and potentially improve its accuracy. For instance, PMR does a better job of controlling for ballpark effects. PMR also divides the baseball field into vertical slices rather than zones, and uses  probabilistic concepts to determine whether fielders beat the expected value for making particular plays.

As explained by Pinto:

Note that a team can post a poor DER during the season, but do well in this model if the balls put into play were extremely difficult to field.

PMR ranks the Astros as the 6th best defensive team in 2008. The only teams which are better, according to PMR: Blue Jays, Braves, Rays, A's, Red Sox. (Interestingly, all but the Braves among those teams are viewed as having sabermetric GMs.) The ranking basically confirms the Hardball Times' team Revised Zone Rating (RZR) rankings which have the Astros rated as tied with the Cards for best defensive teams in the NL (for the NL only, the Astros are No. 2 according to PMR). So, it's safe to conclude that the Astros had a good defensive season in 2008.

How much of an improvement for the Astros in 2008?  In 2007, the Astros were ranked 25th among major league teams by PMR.

I have attempted to follow the Astros' players' defensive performance over the 2008 season.  However, I have been waiting for the PMR results before I try to summarize the Astros' defensive results for the season.  Normally it takes a few days for Pinto to crank out results for all of the player positions.  When he has published all of those results, I intend on writing up a summary comparison of various defensive measures for individual Astros' players.

You haven't heard from me for awhile, so I will discuss some random tidbits....simueltaneously typing and watching the Houston Texans apparently head toward a loss at Minnesota.  Austin fans...were you wondering if the Texans' game would be televised?  The Texans don't get a lot of television time in Austin.  Hopefully the Astros never get to that point.

Wiggy gets some kudos....

Beyond the Box Score rates third basemen.  Wigginton rates as the 9th best third baseman of 2008, among not just the NL but the majors.  Jones, A-Rod, and Wright are the top 3; no surprise there.  Two of the third basemen more highly rated than Wiggy are in the NL Central: Aramis Ramirez and Troy Glaus.  I don't know what to make of this, but 3 of the bottom 7 third basemen in 08 are former Astros: Mike Lamb, Morgan Ensberg, and Jose Castillo.  Lamb rated as the worst in all of baseball last year.  That is quite a fall for Lamb, who had some nice seasons with the Astros.  However, Mike Lamb's career seems to have more peaks and valleys than most players (meaning...that he still might have another decent season in his bat).

Yankees and Astros...

This article says that the Yankees recently contacted the Astros about the availability of Berkman and Oswalt and were told "no."  This story doesn't strike me as any big deal.  The only reason it gets much attention is because the Yankees are involved. All teams doing their due diligence should be checking around the league for players they like.  As they say, no harm in asking.  Didn't the Yankees check on Oswalt's availability last off-season too?  Both Berkman and Roy O have no trade clauses, and they seem among the most unlikely players to crave a move to the Big Apple.

Phillies and Astros...

The Phillies named Amaro as their new GM.  Yes, the same Ruben Amaro who was a finalist along with Ed Wade for the Astros' job.  In fact, Wade and Amaro are good friends, with Amaro having served as Wade's assistant in Philly.  Could this mean more possible dealing between the Astros and Phillies?  The link has a nice photo of Amaro and Lidge shaking hands.  The Phillies passed over Mike Arbuckle, the Phillies' long time farm system director, who is highly regarded for his scouting.  As a result, Arbuckle announced he is leaving.  Given his reputation, it will be interesting to see where he ends up.

More Phillies...

Does anyone remember Brad Lidge uttering the F word on live television after the Astros won the NLCS in 2005.  He probably is glad it isn't him this time.  Chase Utley dropped an F-bomb on live television after the Phillies won the World Series. He said something like "World F'ng Champions. "  Even with a  10 second delay, the broadcast technicians missed  blanking it out by  a hair.  The  crowd  loved it, "erupting into cheers for several minutes."

Free Agents...

Another article about Type A and Type  B Free Agents.  Which free agent are hurt the most by their rating...meaning that teams may not think they are worth losing a 1st and 2d round choice?  The Astros' Brocail has to be at the top of the list, along with Russ Springer and Darrin Oliver, also useful but old relievers.  Juan Cruz, Oliver Perez, Damasco Marte, and Bob Howry fit in the category of good under the radar type players....but are they really worth the risk of losing the top draft pick?  Any players who might be a bargain because they are Type B, rather than Type A?  Maybe Randy Johnson.  Bradley is definitely underrated as a Type B.  Affeldt's marketability may gain a bit because he is rated Type B.  Loretta's Type B rating will continue to hurt his marketability as a free agent...assuming the Astros offer him arbitration.

OK, the game is over...and the Texans made it interesting before succumbing...so it's my time to quit writing.

The Phillies have taken a strong 3 games to 1 lead over the Rays in the World Series.  Ryan Howard, the NL RBI leader, had been slumping this post season, but broke out in a big way, with 2 HRs in Game 4.  Blanton continued his post season pitching success.

With the Phillies' ace, Cole Hamel, taking the mound, is Philadelphia on the cusp of taking the World Series in the next game?  My best guess is "no," just based on the odds that the Rays will win at least another game in this series.  But it is certainly possible. 

The Phillies won the last two games with starting pitchers who rely more on craftiness than velocity.  Joe Madden, manager of the Rays, says that Longoria and Pena, Tampa Bay's big power hitters, have hurt themselves by expanding their strike zones against the Phillies. 

As an aside, Beyond the Boxscore posits that the Rays' bullpen, including ex-Astros reliever Dan Wheeler, is due for a regression in performance next year, based upon BABIP and HR/fly ratios.  I don't know about the others, but I do recall that Dan Wheeler had a history with the Astros of beating his FIP and x-FIP predictions--except for 2007, which led to his trade to the Rays.

If the Phillies were to win the Series in the next game, would that be a shocking outcome, in your opinion?

Huh?  Aramis Ramirez wins the Hank Aaron Award for best offensive statistics.  How does that happen?  For the first time, MLB.com is making the award based on fan voting.  Oh, and I guess the Cubs have a lot of fans.

Baseball Think Factory carries the excerpt (with some comments) from the Chicago newspaper.  I like the commenter who says they should just let Hank Aaron pick the award winner, rather than the fans.  As noted in the article, Ramirez doesn't even have the best offensive statistics among 3d baseman, with David Wright appearing to have the better offensive season.  Pujols, Berkman, Ludwick, and Hanley Ramirez were all probably better offensive performers last year.  Chipper Jones and Holliday also arguably had better years, even though injuries kept them from attaining high counting stats in some categories.

Here, by the way, are NL players' batting stats, ordered by OPS.