Tyrus Thomas is a pretty unique player in the league.  He came in as a shotblocker and garbage-man extraordinaire with tenacity, energy, rebounding effort and lots of intangibles.  He came in also as a 19 year old.  His comparisons that I've heard have been Shawn Kemp, Stromile Swift and a few others.  Out of curiousity, I looked on databasebasketball, the site that used to be basketball-reference.com.  Their number one career similarity comparison was a player who played one year in the ABA, then the rest in the NBA.

His name was Dan Roundfield, aka Dr. Rounds.  I've never heard of him, but maybe someone on BAB has.  He was 6'8" 205lbs, and played 11 seasons in both leagues, averaging 15ppg and 10rpg over his career.

He entered the league at about 22, and Tyrus is not yet 22, so obviously it's not a perfect comparison, though certainly preparation for the NBA can be more accelerated than it used to be.  But the more I think about it, the more I realize that we're really expecting a lot from Tyrus in such a short period of time.

In fact, Mr. Roundfield had a very similar rookie campaign to the one that Tyrus is in right now.  This makes me think that a player like Tyrus, while certainly his per-minute contributions are positive, might benefit from a gradual transition, but truthfully only depends on the minutes given.  Boylan is quite the dumbie, and Tyrus should be playing more, mostly because the success he is having on a limited basis seems to be consistent, even with more minutes.

Mr. Roundfield's career, when used as a comparison, bears this out quite nicely.  After a rookie campaign of:
     - 11.4mpg  5.1ppg 3.9rpg
Tyrus's rookie campaign:
     - 13.2mpg 5.2ppg 3.7rpg

Mr. Roundfield's first year EFF:
     - 6.27 in 11.4mpg (22.00 EFF/40mpg)
For reference, Tyrus's EFF last year:
     - 6.77 in 13.2mpg (20.30 EFF/40mpg)

Mr. Roundfield's minutes increased in the NBA next year to:
     - 27mpg 14ppg 8rpg

for the next several years, until he was 28 he maintained or improved EFF(not a per-minute measure) every year:
     - 19.02  19.90  21.25  21.26  22.84  23.20
minutes:
     - 20.7   30.7   31.7   32.0   33.8   36.5
for 40 minute averages of:
     - 36.75  25.92  26.82  26.58  27.02  25.42

His second year performance was quite remarkable(Consider that Jordan's highest EFF/40mpg was <37), but that might suggest that he was unscouted in the NBA, or played with better teammates, or another reason.  After that season, he was very consistent and pretty impressive.

Skill-wise, I'm unaware of the similarities, but the statistics seem to suggest that if Tyrus gets more minutes, and develops like Mr. Roundfield did(big IF), that he won't be a superstar(Though he was a 3-time All-Star), but will be a solid rebounder who can score a little.    In fact, Roundfield was pretty impressive to Moses Malone, and should be considered one of the better second round picks, considering his 3 AS appearances(Link to Wikipedia Article.

Excerpt:

Sounds good to me!

Pat on the back for Tyrus:
Tyrus has improved his skill-set and confidence(though Boylan has likely ruined the latter).  He took over a game or two, and developed a vastly improved jump shot over the offseason.  I think that next year, with a new coach and increased familiarity and security(starting job, too) with his frontcourt teammate, he will flourish.  

Given that the offseason has started without a Boston Massacre III, I started thinking ahead already.  From my perspective, the biggest upside is the frontcourt, and the biggest liability is the contracts of the frontcourt, though Kirk has been impressive lately, and Gordon could get a favorable sign-and-trade in the offseason.  If anyone has any info on the player I used as a comparison, I'd love to learn more about how they compare, skill-wise.

The most often cited complaint about the departed Scott Skiles was his rotation.  He played Duhon and Wallace too much, and the young'ns too infrequently.  By doing this, he was playing for here and now, trying to exploit the consistent talent he had at the expense of future talent.  Fans always hate this.

I'm no Boylan-supporter.  He's a better coach than I'd be, but worse than others.  Overall, not the worst coach in the league, but certainly not in the top 20.  When he took the job for the remainder of the season, he said that he would depend on the veterans to save the season from being a complete non-factor in the weakest East in recent memory.  He stuck to that.  Until everyone got injured.

Since then and even before everyone got injured, the paradigm had shifted.  Wallace was no longer the wily, experienced, athletic hustler-rebounder extraordinaire, he was a broke-down, overplayed black hole on offense.  I don't even blame Wallace.  He's being played like a 28 year old, but he's 32.  He would be more effective and have more energy if he had more rest.  In the past few games, some of this has emerged.  Joe Smith's rest is also becoming more of a priority.  The players that were supposed to be saving the season weren't significantly better than the young kids that got benched for them.  Noah started playing a little more.  Intermittent outages of Kirk and Ben became opportunities to see that a rebounding, defending guard is something we not only have, but might be useful.

In the past few games, the youth that has been considered an asset of potential has become a plain, right-now asset.  The fans rejoice, and Tyrus saves a game with heroics.  Never thought that the kid that got buried on the rotation would be so lauded by my man Sam, but he is.

Maybe this year is lost if we can't get out of the 7 or 8 seed, but the future looks bright.  Far from having too few players, we might just have too many that need playing time to develop.  I think, for one, that Boylan is realizing that even Noah's supremely messed up shooting form beats Wallace's airball jumpers.  Wallace might just not be so tired if we did that, too.  We didn't get suckered into long extensions for a team that doesn't look to be going anywhere, reminding me too much of the Pacers of a few years ago, re-uping Austin Croshere for huge money.  Maybe they're good, but the team just doesn't seem to center around them as much as that money says it should.

As a Bulls fan, I could not be happier.  Briefly glancing over the league, I am thankful for what I have to cheer for.  Far from trying out Reggie(Boston), figuring out whether our team will lose its best player for peanuts in the near future(Lakers, Wizards), putting this season's hopes on the resurgence of fat people knees and replacing Flash with Mr. Fake Triple-Double(Heat), we have a team that has been kept together with young talent, veteran leadership, and responsible finances.  Few teams have a better top to bottom organizational structure, from the owner to the standing room only seats.  Even fewer teams have the talent that is as good as likely to improve.

Tempering enthusiasm with ambiguity, I dare say that as Bulls fans, we are sitting very pretty as the season arrives.  If you look around the league, only a few teams strike me as good to cheer for in the near term(San Antonio, Phoenix, Dallas, Boston and Cleveland), but none of those teams are likely to improve soon.  Lebron needs a sidekick but they have no money, Phoenix and Dallas can't get over the hump that San Antonio has built and aren't getting any younger, Boston's time bomb is audible from the moon and San Antonio is probably on the decline from their pseudo-dynasty.

In my mind, Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah are the most important players for the contribution of an X Factor.  Every championship team may have superstars(the causal relationship is debatable), but more than that nearly all championship teams have moxy.  Not misplaced arrogance vis-a-viz Spreewell or Damon Jones(who actually thinks being better than Larry Hughes still means something), but the confidence in their play that oozes out of them.  This confidence is contagious, and I have seen this out of Ben Wallace in Detroit, and in his few dominant performances last year, but it is still rare.  In Tyrus, we saw what basketball fans often refer to as "flashes", times when a player's true potential, while being invisible to themselves, is apparent to everyone else.  Tyrus' enthusiasm at various points reminded me of exactly what's missing about this team: confidence.  This team is one of the best in the league(top 5 is no stretch), and doesn't play like they know it.  Joakim has confidence to go around, and Tyrus' youthful enthusiasm that characterized his college career took most nights off.  Most nights.  The other nights reminded us of the confidence that all great teams have.

The first game of last year demonstrated the character of our team more than any other game.  They showed themselves that they could compete with anybody that day.  Then they forgot again, losing the next game to Orlando by 15.  This team has been noted by scouts and writers as occasionally playing down to their competition.  I attribute this to not realizing that they are playing down, not realizing that they should beat the Nets, especially when the game means something.  Confidence might help avoid going down 0-3 by simply playing without passion.  The team needs moxy, and who better to give it than players that have nearly too much, Thomas and Noah.  Play the kids(when their ankles work again), and let's step on their throats, guys!

As evidence of tenacity and the Bulls' tradition of raw competitiveness, watch this video, paying special attention to #8.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvaEvX6xHZU&NR=1

GO BULLS!

In a not-so-surprising move by Yi's former Chinese basketball team, they are attempting to block his move to the Milwaukee Bucks, which was threatened before the draft by both the team and his agent team, as I recall.  They stressed private workouts only in Los Angeles, and said that he could only go to the Bulls and Golden State.

Yi, taken by Milwaukee with the sixth selection in the NBA draft last month, would "definitely not" play for Milwaukee, Tuesday's Beijing News quoted Guangdong Tigers chief, Chen Haitao, as saying.

They cite the depth chart as the cause for concern, but truthfully it's likely the minute Asian-American community that really ruffles their feathers.

Chen expressed concern that Yi would have trouble getting playing time with the Bucks, whose squad boasts Australian 7-footer Andrew Bogut and a number of other tall young players.

The only way this relates to the Bulls is as a possible second or third team involved with moving him to a different squad.  I would be curious to know how much they would stick to their Bay Area or Chicago choice, but at this point those may not be options anymore.  Our frontcourt has a lot of depth, but if we traded Noah and someone else(Sweetney?) for Yi, then that could work out for his team officials, though in my mind Tyrus or he can never play Center, and so he's a backup unless he unseats Tyrus, which at the moment seems difficult to do.

I don't know much about the team's rights, but this is straight out of the Eli Manning bag of tricks, and that worked out poorly for the guy, so I can't imagine that they want him just anywhere else, they probably have someplace in mind.

[I combined the two Joe Smith diaries into one, Vangelis' is after the 'read more'.

I think it's time he (we) got over the #1 pick label, it was like 12 years ago. KC says 'classy veteran', heh. Not sure what to think right now in terms of rotatation and young-guy-burying. I'm just pleased it's a 2-year deal (David Aldridge reports 2yrs/$10m) which is excellently short. -Matt]

Offseason is now effectively over for the Bulls.  Though Billy King reportedly wanted to keep Joe Smith around, we signed him for likely the Mid-Level Exception.

Joe Smith, the former #1 Pick, is considered one of the bigger busts in NBA history.  He went to college in Maryland, and is generally known around the NBA as good guy, as I've heard.

Continue reading this post »

I made a post of things that I wished would happen, and it's weird, but a few of those have come true in the past few weeks:

Specific ones:
*  Luol Deng has 35 pt game
He did almost that.  He hadhis best game ever maybe on 2/23/07, with the following line:
39min 13-22FG 6-6FT 11reb 2PF    32pts
I would say the 11 reb makes up for the 3 missing points.

*  Ben Gordon plays all 48 minutes
He played 47 last night.  47/53 minutes is pretty good, and his career high makes the missing minute, well, minute.

*  Wallace getting some energy and 20+ rebounds
He didn't get 20reb, but against Cleveland on 2/22, he had 19 and really helped us win the game with the following line that doesn't capture all he did:
44min 6-8FG 2-2FT 9OREB 19TREB 5AST 2STL 7BLK 14PTS
9 OREB?  That's ridiculous!  7 BLOCKS?  Also ridiculous.  I think he's getting more comfortable here.  If only he can understand that his knees do in fact work like hinge joints.

*  Knicks losing every damn game
Not working right now, they are around ~10th worst team in the league.

*  Tyrus to start for a while
With PJB out, this may happen.  He is actually earning his playing time.  My guess is that BW gave him a talking-to after his Dunk contest comments.

*  Thabo to not throw the ball away
Since my post, he's done the following:
.7TO in 88min, for rate of 2.2To/40min

*  Duhon ridin the pine, he's not the future of this team
He has been getting less since Kirk, Deng and Gordon have heated up, but he's playing alright, and will play less as they play more.

*  Bulls get 1-3 seed
They have to be the best team not to win a division to do this, and better than one of the division winners as well.  They are currently battling with Cleveland for this dubious distinction. Jury's still out, and thank G-d so is Dwayne Wade.

UPDATE: TO SATISFY THE HINRICH FANS OUT THERE:
* Kirk Hinrich gets a triple double or scores 40
We all want Kirk to look for his shot more, and look to handle the ball more generally, and he needs a breakout scoring game to remember what it was like to be a scorer first.

I get the feeling that the Bulls are on the verge of something great.  I also have the feeling that they are on the verge of a monumental collapse.  I'll explain more.
(No talk of the personal pronouns, I know)

We are consistent only in our inconsistency.  If we could play as well as one of our better nights, we're a 55 win team easily.  On one of our bad nights, we're a 30 win team.  We don't have any player except Deng that gives conmsistent production, and we seem mentally defeated sometimes even before the tip-off.

Skiles is a great X's and O's coach.  I feel like he's a good teacher, albeit a bit impatient.  But he has a tough job.  He has more youngsters than any other +.500 team in the league, and has to therefore worry about this year just as much as next.  Even our veterans are working out their rookie contracts.  He seems quick to pull guys out, and appears to win games we just shouldn't win with our lineup.  Our players are collectively outperforming their individual talent, IMHO.  Our team is miring in mediocrity, only in the East that means over .500.  We need a clutch, consistent player and a post player, best if one player fits both.  Pau may be one, but hasn't proven to be a leader and an elite player yet.

PJ Brown is a huge bargaining chip, but only if we think that FA money is not going to help us.  It's obvious that trading PJ Brown is basically signing a player for their contract, and giving up the other stuff.  Would I rather have Pau than a rookie like Horford?  Yes.  Post players are hard to come by, and take a long time to develop.  I think that unless Pau can be gotten for a deal like Our pick/PJB/Tyrus, we shouldn't do it.  We might be able to get a PF this summer, through FA
or a trade.  We're not ready to compete yet with the tops in the league.  Forget the East, we can't beat the best teams in the West yet.

The Bulls are either having a tough time gelling, or we just don't have the pieces yet.  I think that until we get a post player who can score while being double-teamed, we're going to continue to be an also-ran in the East.

These next few weeks are crucial, here are some things that I want to see:

• 35 pt game from Deng
  
• Wallace getting some energy and 20+ rebounds
  
• Gordon playing 48min
  
• Knicks losing every damn game
  
• Tyrus to start for a while
  
• Thabo to not throw the ball away
  
• Duhon ridin the pine, he's not the future of this team
  
• Bulls get 1-3 seed

John Hollinger uses the oft-used "Swiss Mister" for Thabo Sefalosha in his most recent article, in which he also critiques our rookies, Tyrus and Thabo, and calls them projects, meaning they're not dissapointments, but need time to develop.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&id=2690890&lpo s=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1

In a draft with several wait-'til-next-year types, these are the most prominent.

Tyrus Thomas, Bulls: Broke his nose opening night. Welcome to the NBA, kid.

Since then he's had trouble cracking the Bulls' rotation, mixing intriguing athleticism with several moments when his inexperience (just one year of college) has become apparent. A lack of offensive polish is the biggest shortcoming.

Thabo Sefolosha, Bulls: A future defensive ace, the Swiss Mister already has Chicago's brass beaming over his long-term future.

But for the immediate future, Sefolosha's offense pales in comparison to his defense, so he's not useful for more than spot duty on a team hoping to win the East.