Back in 2006, I got it into my head to try my hand at writing a simulator for the express purpose of optimizing lineups. It would go through all 9! permutations of the lineup and actually play simulated games, and then output the average runs scored for each lineup. You can see the original post here and the follow-up using stats taken from the 2005 Astros here. I never did get around to updating the algorithm (although it's still on my to-do list), but since I finally got myself a new computer I decided to try something that my friend suggested, which was to run a set of projections through the program in order to predict what the optimum lineup would be for the forthcoming year.

The program finally finished the run (marginally faster - about 50 hours run time) using the 2008 ZiPS projections for the Cubs. I used the projections for the following eight players: Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soto, Pie, DeRosa, Theriot, and Soriano; and then summed up the actual 2007 lines for the five pitchers with the most ABs (Z, Lilly, Hill, Marshall, Marquis) to make a sort of "average" pitcher. I'd like to reiterate that this algorithm doesn't take into account errors, steals, player speed, GIDP, handedness, sacrifice flies or sac bunts, and baserunning is strictly station-to-station. The algorithm also does not take into account any other strategy - i.e., it doesn't pitch around guys to get to the pitcher. In addition, ZiPS doesn't project hit-by-pitches.

That said, here are the results for the top 10 and bottom 10 lineups, as well as the results for the starting lineup from the March 18th spring training game.

There is some evidence for putting your best OBP player (Fukudome) in the leadoff spot, followed by your best OPS guys with an emphasis on OBP. Unfortunately, the 2008 Cubs ZiPS projections probably aren't the best lineup for determining generalities about each lineup slot; the top 4 hitters are all within 60 points of each other in projected OPS, and the top 6 projected starters all have projected OBP within 50 points of each other as well. However, there is good support for LaRussa's "second leadoff hitter" in the 9-hole, and maybe even a "third leadoff hitter" with the pitcher in the 7th or 8th slot depending on whether your real leadoff hitter also has good pop or not. The optimum lineup here is only about 10 runs (maybe 1 win) better than the lineup Lou fielded on March 18th.

Crossposted at my website.

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Way back at the beginning of the season, MerigoldBowling posted a diary asking people to pledge money to Project 3000. (You can find it here, or access it from the front page under BCB Specials in the right hand column.)

As we're now approaching the end of the season, I thought it would be interesting to see what my pledges added up to. I based my pledges around two young players that I thought would actually get regular playing time this year - Rich Hill and Matt Murton. Obviously, Hill has been a solid part of the rotation, but Murton has only seen limited playing time with the outfield logjam.

That said, I pledged 25 cents per K by Hill and 25 cents per hit by Murton, and a bonus dollar for every walk less this year by Z than last year. As of Monday night's game vs. the Reds, that means I'm in for $58, plus a possible $21 bonus dollars. (175 K + 57 hits; 94 BB currently for Z).

I encourage you to post your current totals below, or, if you didn't pledge at the beginning of the season, to do so now.

Just got back from the ballpark and got my photos uploaded. Courtesy of my boss, I had great seats about 30 rows back from home plate slightly off to the 3rd base side. They were giving out Biggio #7 caps to the first 10,000 fans. The guy at the door jokingly said he'd only give me one if I switched caps (I was wearing my Cubs cap).

http://www.flickr.com/photos/falsecognate/sets/72157601979412334/

I thought the strike zone was a little inconsistent, but it cut both ways. Dunno what happened on the Derrek Lee CS (was it a missed hit and run?). And Cliff Floyd's HR was ridiculous - I've never heard a ball come off a bat that loudly before.

Cubs win!

Proof that the BCB Ticket Exchange works!

Many thanks to Aaron for selling me his tickets. It was a good game, and an absolutely beautiful day to be out at the ballpark.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/falsecognate/sets/72157601870380699/

At one point, my girlfriend turned to me after I had shot a photo of the pennants atop the scoreboard and asked me "Have you ever been here when the Cubs pennant was at the top?" Sadly, I had to say no. But this was the first, and hopefully not the last time!

I managed to get to two games last week while I was in Chicago. Both were losses, so I'm not doing particularly well this year. I took photos at both.

Florida Marlins, 28 May 2007 (Memorial Day)
They went pretty heavy on the patriotism at this game. I wish I had gotten a better picture of the bald eagle soaring around the field, but I was too stunned to whip out my camera until it had already landed on the falconer's arm. I sat up in the LF bleachers with Al and a few other BCB readers/regulars. I'm terrible with names, so I apologize.

Atlanta Braves, 1 June 2007 (the Zambrano-Barrett game)
Unfortunately, I was in no position to get photos inside the Cubs dugout. However, I was about 15 rows behind the plate. I've never sat in seats like these at Wrigley ($$$) and I probably never will again, unless I somehow become a millionaire. I felt like Z's arm slot was a little low; a couple of times it looked like he was almost sidearming the ball. Also, I felt like the HP ump's zone was a little inconsistent, esp. with the low strike.

Mike Pindelski over at Beyond the Box Score takes a look at the PECOTA projections of Carlos Zambrano:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2007/4/13/81153/7909

They are a little pessimistic about workload and control, noting that Carlos is one of the most overworked pitchers of the last few years. I've been wondering about this as well, especially about control. He hasn't shown any sign of being able to rein in his walk rate (4.84 BB/9 last year, 4.12 BB/9 career through 2006), which doesn't compare favorably at all to many other power pitchers of note.

That's why (I'm sure I'll get booed for this) I think Hendry should be careful in considering length of contract and compensation. I know contract talks have quieted down with the impending sale of TribCo., but I wouldn't want. to sign Z to anything longer than a 5 year contract considering his previous workload and control issues.

Does anyone know where I can find some reliable spring training player stats? The Cubs website, as of 5pm on March 6th, appears to be incorrect. I checked, and Murton is listed as being 0 for 6 with 3 walks and no HR, when he had a 3 for 3 game with 1 HR.

Does Yahoo or any other freely available website have accurate spring training stats? I'd like to follow along with the Gameday threads, but it's during work hours (which normally wouldn't stop me) and I've been really busy lately...

For those who care, I managed to help Dave Smith over at retrosheet.org get the redirects working for the player pages.

Old links used to look like this:

http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/Pkoufs101.htm
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/Pmaddg002.htm
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/Pmurtm001.htm

and now they look like this:

http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/K/Pkoufs101.htm
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/M/Pmaddg002.htm
http://retrosheet.org/boxesetc/M/Pmurtm001.htm

An interesting thing I learned - there are no players, managers, or umpires to ever have a last name that started with X. Every other letter is represented, however.