Including the salary for the recent exercised 2009 club option for Rich Harden, the current committed salaries for Cubs players is approximately $124M with incentives of almost another $6M.

At the time of this writing (October 21, 2008), Jim Hendry has already been extended for 4 years.  He was interviewed by MLB’s Carrie Muskat in the following article.  The tone of this message makes it sound that Hendry would be content with finding a lefty bopper OF to compete with Fukudome and that Pie will be the starting CF.  In addition, in this article (written by Gordon Wittenmyer), Cubs chairman Crane Kenney mentions that he doesn’t anticipate any significant moves, but rather tweaking may be all that is needed.  A few weeks ago, it was reported that the payroll would bump up.  Now, this may be a lot of fluff to redirect the media, hype to increase the value for players that will be dealt, or some of it may be true.  We’ll see, as right now, the Cubs brass is in organizational meetings, and the General Managers meetings are right around the corner.

I am awaiting Jim Hendry’s phone call, to which I would recommend the following.

Assumption: Cubs Payroll will go up to, but not exceed, $150M.

The current status for movable parts is:

1. Free agents:

·        RHP Ryan Dempster

·        OF Jim Edmonds

·        RHP Chad Fox

·        RHP Bob Howry

·        RHP Jon Lieber

·        1B Daryle Ward

·        RHP Kerry Wood

1. Eligible for arbitration:

·        IF Ronny Cedeno

·        LHP Neal Cotts

·        RHP Chad Gaudin

·        OF Reed Johnson

·        RHP Michael Wuertz

1. Club options:

·        RHP Rich Harden ($7 million; picked up Oct. 8)

·        C Henry Blanco, $3 million ($300,000 buyout)

1. Player options: None
2. Non-tender possibilities: None

My General Manager Moves:

1. Cubs Free Agents:
   1. Sign Ryan Dempster to a 3-year, $33M deal with $900K incentives per year (award bonuses: $75,000 each for Gold Glove or All Star selection, $0.2M for LCS MVP, $0.3M for MVP, $0.3M for Cy Young ($0.2M for 2nd place in vote, $0.15M for 3rd, $0.1M for 4th or 5th),
   2. Sign Kerry Wood to a 2-year, $16M deal with $2M incentives per year (performance bonuses: $.35M for 40 games finished, $0.5M for 50 games, $0.6M for 60 games; award bonuses: $0.25M for WS MVP, $0.15M for LCS MVP, $75,000 for All Star, Gold Glove),
   3. Do not offer contracts to Jim Edmonds, Chad Fox, Bob Howry (offer arbitration), Jon Lieber, and Daryle Ward.
2. Arbitration:
   1. Re-sign Ronny Cedeno to a 1-year, $425K deal.
   2. Re-sign Neal Cotts to a 1-year, $860K deal.
   3. Re-sign Chad Gaudin to a 1-year, $2M deal.
   4. Re-sign Reed Johnson to a 1-year, $3M deal.
   5. Re-sign Michael Wuertz to a 1-year, $920K deal.
3. Club options:
   1. Decline option for Henry Blanco, paying $300K.  Re-sign Henry Blanco to a 2-year, $4M deal.

At this point, the combined salary is at $149.5M, with incentives of $8M.  This totals approximately $157.5M, or $7.5M over budget.

More moves are needed to shed the budget, and improve the team.  This will be achieved via free agent signing and trades.

• Trade Jason Marquis to any team that will take him.  Get 1-2 prospects to save face, but this is a salary shedding move.  Most likely $2.5M will need to be covered, and approximately $7.375M is shed.
• Sign Free Agent Adam Dunn to a 5 year, $80M with $5M sign-on bonus and $1M yearly incentives.  Ideally, I would like to sign Mark Teixeira – he would be the perfect fit.  Young (28), lefty, defensive first baseman who can hit for average and power.  The reality is that the years and dollars will likely be driven too high by the Yankees (and possibly the Red Sox).  If we could get him for 6 years at $20M per year, do it.  I think that the Yankees will go a longer term, and an annual salary possibly reaching $25M.  Dunn (29) brings a questionable glove and low speed, high power, high OBP (walks) and high strikeout rate.  Assume budget goes up by $16M (plus $5M for the sign-on). 
• Trade Derrek Lee and Felix Pie in a three-way deal with the Giants and Marlins, sending Lee to the Giants, Matt Cain and Felix Pie to the Marlins, and the Cubs get Alex Hinshaw (LOOGY) and Jeremy Hermida (RF).  Obviously this hinges on the fact on whether Dunn (or Teixeira) signs first.  We do not want to be in a position where we are left without a 1B (Hoffpauir/DeRosa platoon is not the answer here). We shed $12M.  Alex Hinshaw replaces Scott Eyre in the Cubs bullpen as a very inexpensive solution.  Jeremy Hermida moves Fukudome over to a platoon situation with Reed Johnson in center, and provides an inexpensive left handed solution in right field with great potential.
• Trade Sean Marshall and 1-2 prospects for Jake Peavy and cash consideration ($1M).  Peavy is set to be paid $8M in 2009, so the net is approximately $6.3M.  Any cash considerations to offset his extended contact would be great, as he  just signed a contract last year for:

a.       2010: $15M

b.      2011: $16M

c.       2012:$17M

d.      2013 $22M club option ($4M buyout)

All of these moves yield a 25-man roster of:

1. Starting Rotation:
   • Ryan Dempster
   • Rich Harden
   • Ted Lilly
   • Jake Peavy
   • Carlos Zambrano
2. Relief Pitchers:
   • Neal Cotts
   • Chad Gaudin
   • Angel Guzman
   • Alex Hinshaw
   • Carlos Marmol
   • Jeff Samardzija
   • Kerry Wood (Cl)
3. Position Players
   • LF - Alfonso Soriano
   • CF - Kosuke Fukudome (platoon)
   • CF - Reed Johnson (platoon)
   • RF - Jeremy Hermida
   • 1B - Adam Dunn
   • 2B - Mark DeRosa
   • SS - Ryan Theriot
   • 3B - Aramis Ramirez
   • C - Geovany Soto
   • Bench - Ronny Cedeno
   • Bench - Mike Fontenot
   • Bench - Henry Blanco
   • Bench - Micah Hoffpauir

And a starting lineup as:

1. Ryan Theriot (R)
2. Kosuke Fukudome (L)
3. Aramis Ramirez (R)
4. Adam Dunn (L)
5. Alfonso Soriano (R)
6. Jeremy Hermida (L)
7. Geovany Soto (R)
8. Mark DeRosa (R)

Total Payroll for 2009: $152.6M with $14M in incentives or sign-on bonuses.  Assuming 10% of incentives are realized, we are talking about a $158.5M, or $8.5M over budget.  In order to get back to the NTE $150M budget, do not pull the trigger on the Jake Peavy deal, and Sean Marshall becomes our #5 starter.  This would yield a payroll of $149.5M.  If Dempster does not accept the deal, then definitely pull the trigger on Peavy as his replacement.  This would bring the payroll further down to $145.5M.

According to Bruce Levine this morning, the Cubs have decided to part ways with Cintrón. 

I speculate that this means that:

1. His injury was a lot worse than originally reported/anticipated, or

2. the Cubs have elected to pass on Roberts and keep Cedeño, or

3. the Cubs saw enough of Fontenot during spring training that he could fulfill the utility IF role for the Cubs should talks with Roberts heat back up (and as an NRI, Cintrón would be granted his unconditional release), or

4. Hendry feels that an external acquisition/trade is necessary, these are a "dime a dozen", or

5. All of the Above.

Discuss.

The author of the annual "Minor League Baseball Analyst" book Deric McKamey recently offered up some answers to readers' questions.

You can find the article here.

I haven't really been following analysis of farm systems (yet), and notice that this is an often discussed topic here at BCB.  We constantly talk about it when we are speculating new trades and attempt to value prospects against one another.  We talk about it as we speculate what the Cubs future looks like during the coming season (fill in existing holes we have, or may have due to injury, etc.) and beyond.

Minimally, I figured I'd share this article, because he goes into some interesting (and believable) detail as to why he ranks certain players in the Cubs organization a certain way.  While he seems to be harsh, I was wondering how credible Deric McKamey is with his ratings?

Also, he has a letter and number connotation with his ratings.  Does anyone know what this rating scale looks like?

Discuss. Update [2008-2-15 15:32:18 by initram]: Here's the rating scales (I had this as a block quote, and the formatting in preview looked poor, so I figured it would be easier to just keep the link in there).

"This comes as a surprise, on the heels of a Rosenthal report to the contrary.  Jeff Zrebiec says the Astros have acquired Miguel Tejada for Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate, and Mike Costanzo."

Source: MLBTR, ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3151849

Does this green light us to now acquire Roberts?  If there's any speculation, we may as well just wait until after tomorrow.

Go get him, Hendry!

I have been banging my head against the wall over here wondering why we haven't seen many moves yet.  I mean, for Pete's sake, by this time last year we were in the midst of a Hendry fury as he had the Cubs busiest offseason!

Then, I settled down and thought it through some more.

Here's a thought to provoke more conversation, debate, wishes, aspirations, prayers, et al.  It's as simple as two main acquisitons allowing for the other moves to happen.  I call them the two dominoes that need to fall in order for other doors to open.  These two are:

(1) Kazuo Matsui

I think this move allows the Cubs to platoon Theriot and Matsui at shortstop.  It makes us more flexible, more athletic, and speedier.  Several other diaries have clearly brought about the concern of his defense at short.  But, clearly, he brings speed and on-base percentage to the team - two things that we had difficulty with in 2007.

If Infante stays on this team, and with the acquisition of KazMat, we have essentially opened up the potential moves of both Fontenot and Cedeno.  I think Cedeno is the key piece here, as he enables us to get Carl Crawford.

Cedeno + Hill + Gallagher for Crawford.  We now have our right fielder and leadoff hitter.  Crawford & Matsui batting 1 - 2 reminds me of the Dernier & Sandberg "Daily Double" days.  82 SB between them in about 125 games (average).  Wow!

The holes created?  (a) We need either a long man (who is likely Kevin Hart if he does not take a starting pitcher's role), or a first man starting pitcher from the minors.  I believe you can get a respectable return of a player in a trade of Marquis/Dempster for prospects (more of a salary dump, but get the prospects!)  (b) We need a new #3.  As you will see later, Lilly becomes our #3...

(2) Kosuke Fukudome

Obviously, if the above happens, this moves Crawford from right to center.  It gets us our power hitting, left handed, excellent defensive, on-base monster player.  As reports have shown, executing (1) above may enable this to happen, but it does much more than that.

The beauty of this is that this is free!  Well, not free, since it will cost money in a contract for him, but he is a free agent (without the posting fee!).  Again, we have talked about him ad nauseum in other diaries.  My opinion is that while he may not be the best, I am convinced he is a perfect match for our needs.  Metsblog says 3/30 can land him - I think it may be more.  Still, 5/50?  Go get 'em!

What is more important is not just the gaping hole that he fills, but it alleviates the need for us holding onto our prized top prospect (or science project) - Felix Pie.  He is likely the best CF solution for the cheapest dollars.  Who could use him?  Uhm, err... Minnesota?  Pie + Marquis + { who else } for Johan Santana... what would get the deal done?  The first piece (and likely the most coveted player from our team that the Twins would want, especially now because of Halo Hunter) could very well be available.

The next thing to ask would be whether the Cubs could afford the record-setting contract extension he will command (>$126M?)

Thanks for allowing me to dream.  And, have fun!

I kept my eye out for the news on when Scott Eyre exercised his player option.  We all figured he would (or he would be a fool not to).  Nonetheless, I kept waiting and waiting.

Interestingly, I noticed that there is no record of Scott Eyre exercising his player option this month under the Cubs transactions:

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/transactions.jsp?c_id=chc&year=2007&month=11

However, look at the MLB FA Tracker here:

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/mlb/news/hot_stove/y2007/free_agent_tracker.jsp?teamAct=chn

You see there that the "New Team" for Eyre is CHC, with no hyperlink stating this news?

Is this confirmation that Eyre actually exercised his option?

Help me with my math here...

The Cubs had a payroll of $99M.  They are suggesting that the 2008 payroll is $125M.  That's $26M to spend.  

No more Jones - that's plus $3M, up to $29M
No more Floyd - another $3M, up to $32M
No more Barrett - another $4.6M, up to $36.6M.
No more Rusch - another $3.25M - up to $39.85M

Zambrano goes from 12.4 to 15, or minus $2.6M - down to $37.25M
Soriano goes from 9 to 13, or minus $4M - down to $33.25M
Ramirez goes from 8 to 14, or minus $6M - down to $27.25M
Lee is flat
Lilly goes from 5 to 7, or minus $2M - down to 25.25M
DeRosa goes from 2.75 to 4.75M, or minus 2M - down to 23.25M
Howry is flat.
Eyre goes from 3.5 to 3.8, or minus $0.3M - down to about $23M

Assume Dempster (5 to 5.5M) and Marquis (4.75 to 6.375M) are traded.  Assume nothing on Prior ($3.75M).

Assume Wood, Crawford, Fukudome, Matsui, and Kuroda are added:

Wood goes from 1.75 to 4.75, or 3M
Crawford is at $5.25M for '08... assume we give up $1M worth in players, netting $4.25M
Fukudome commands likely $10M per year for 5 years?  Assume $10M
Matsui likely commands $3.33M for 3 years?  Assume $3.33M
Kuroda likely commands $5M for 3 years?  Assume $5M.

Adds up to: $25.58M... or overspending by about $3M.  Remember, with Dempster, Marquis and Prior... we are leaving around $15.625 on the table that could go to another very solid pitcher...

At the time of this writing, the free agent count is up to 137.

Chicago AM Radio (not sure which one) just reported that 17 of those (12.4%) have been identified on the Mitchell report!

So, a question to anyone who may know... and if no one knows it's food for thought and speculation:  How can a GM proceed with FA signings and trades without knowing this information?  I mean, no GM will ever be able to have all of the information presented to them about each player, but it's their job to have the most important information readily available to them in order to make an informed decision.  That said, wouldn't one think that this bit of information is important enough to determine whether or not a player should be pursued?

Not that I need to do this, but for the sake of illustration I will submit this hypothetical situation.  Hendry determines that a hole that needs to be filled is the SS position.  He has his scouts do all of what they do according to the parameters that meet the Cubs needs, target some players, dwindle that list down to a few and go target them.  Presume we jump 4 weeks ahead from now and Hendry offers up a couple of prospects from our organization for said player and we make the deal.  A couple of weeks after this, though, said player has been implicated and subsequently gets slapped with a 50-game suspension to start the new season.  Not only is this not fair and a waste of resources scouting an alleged cheater, but Hendey also shipped two of our prospects away that he obviously never would have done had he had this bit of information which is available!

That leads to this: do you think that the GMs really do know?  Do you think that GMs may be holding out until said report if they don't know?  

Some GMs views are given if you look at the MLB Hot Stove coverage and view some of the One-on-One in the "Sights and Sounds" section. Update [2007-11-8 18:8:56 by initram]: This was in a different thread some time back. The intent of this thread is not to discuss the veracity of the Mitchell report and the legalities of suspending players. The discussion at hand was intended to discuss the effect it will have on GMs making plans and acting on them in the 6-10 weeks to come - and then have it all erased. Again, assume these players are implicated and _that these players are suspended_. Whether they should be suspended or should not be suspended is irrelevant.

Bruce Levine reported that Brad Lidge goes to the Phillies.

I know that the Astros were looking to sign Cordero.

"The Phillies sent outfielder Michael Bourn, pitcher Geoff Geary and minor leaguer Mike Costanzo to Houston, and received infielder Eric Bruntlett in addition to Lidge.

The teams scheduled an announcement Wednesday night at the general managers meetings in Orlando."

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3099599

Bruce Levine just reported that Ryan Dempster will join the rotation next year for the Cubs.  Also, the closer situation was answered as Marmol, Howry and Eyre will pitch in the final three innings.

I am sure this doesn't discount the fact that the Cubs will look to shop Dempster, especially if they land Kudora.  It looks like there is a lot of interest out there for Marquis as well.  The Cubs look to position themselves as having several major league experienced starters that they could part with to fill in any gaps that are needed.

This then adds to some questions / commentary.  I am sure that Kerry Wood was not mentioned as Hendry is looking to secure him for bullpen duty in 2008.  Also, I thought Eyre had a player option for 2008... has anyone heard one way or another if he has exercised that?  IIRC, Eyre has mentioned that he wants to come back in 2008, but has he formally exercised his option?