Dwarf Grit Report as of 6/05/2008. More significant changes in the last two plus weeks, old closer, new closer, injuries, demotions, promotions, free agent additions.

gmLI              4/28  5/05  5/19  6/05  change
Eric Gagne        2.16  2.15  2.02  1.92  -0.10
Guillermo Mota    2.13  1.86  1.81  1.65  -0.16
Salomon Torres    1.51  1.42  1.29  1.43  +0.14
Brian Shouse      1.82  1.57  1.32  1.23  -0.09
Tim Dillard                         1.03 
Carlos Villanueva                   0.95
Seth McClung      1.12  0.94  0.63  0.77  +0.14
Julian Tavarez                      0.25
Mark Difelice                 0.60  0.21  -0.39
Zach Jackson                  0.13  0.17  +0.04    

David Riske       1.34  1.21  1.25
Derrick Turnbow   1.03  0.90
Mitch Stetter     1.32  1.13  0.80

gmLI: A pitcher’s average LI when he enters the game.
LI (leverage index): A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango.

data and definitions from fangraphs

c'mon, yost. i'm a fan of yours. but i have to qualify that, i'm a fan of you as a manager. yost, dude, you are making it way hard to defend you against the legions that call for your head. way hard. cause the self-righteous, defiant, holier-than-thou attitude we have to put up with over and over again makes us dislike you. and then we want you to fail.

can you just pretend to be on our side?

seriously. let's go through this... now, i'm going to have to make up the question, cause one of the tricks in journalism is to separate tasty quotes from the questions that were asked so that any kind of context can be created around it. for the sake of example, i'll pretend it's witrado asking the question.

Witrado: So, uh, Ned, do you like, worry about, like the credability of the blogs, when they suggest that, uh, like, uh, you know, you might get fired?

Ned (new palatable ned): Well, the fans have a right to be upset, so far this season the team has underperformed. It's not for lack of effort, but the results haven't been there. It's natural to want to hold somebody accountable, I'm not at all surprised that someone would, out of frustration, create a rumor to get a discussion going. Fans need to vent, too.

would that kill you, dude? man, it'd be a lot easier to get back to not intentionally walking too many guys, not sacrificing too often, using the hit and run, stolen base, and bunt attempts just enough to keep the other team guessing, and start winning some games. bottle it up, people want to see someone in control of their emotions, then they can believe you are in control of the clubhouse.

Dwarf Grit Report as of 5/19/2008. Lots of significant changes in the last two weeks, new closer, old closer, injuries, demotions, and through it all, Yost preserves bullpen pecking order! Meanwhile the team goes 4-9, and falls from 3rd to 6th place in the NL Central.

gmLI            4/28  5/05  5/19 change
Eric Gagne      2.16  2.15  2.02 -0.13
Guillermo Mota  2.13  1.86  1.81 -0.05
Brian Shouse    1.82  1.57  1.32 -0.25
Salomon Torres  1.51  1.42  1.29 -0.13
David Riske     1.34  1.21  1.25 +0.04
Mitch Stetter   1.32  1.13  0.80 -0.33
Seth McClung    1.12  0.94  0.63 -0.49
Mark Difelice               0.60 
Zach Jackson                0.13      

gmLI: A pitcher’s average LI when he enters the game.
LI (leverage index): A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango.

data and definitions from fangraphs

I took a tour of Josh Kalk's web based pitchf/x tool to get a sense of what to look for from Daisuke.

Here's what I came up with. I thought I had heard that Daisuke was a guy with a big repertoire, five, maybe six pitches, but Josh's tool really shows him as a guy with three pitches, fastball, slider, changeup. There's over 1400 pitches here, and I believe it's all 2007 data.

Daisuke's fastball sits at an average of 93 mph with decent tail in on right handed batters, his slider is thrown at a modest 84-85 mph and breaks away from right handed hitters. The changeup is thrown mostly in hitters counts to RHBs. Only about 10% of his pitches are changeups which looks like a subpar pitch.

first pitch: hitters want to sit on the fastball low and away, he'll throw that about 60% of the time. He'll start it off the plate and try to get it to tail into the strikezone.

hitter's counts: 60% sliders, mostly thrown for strikes so they'll start middle-in and break away.

pitcher's counts: daisuke will waste a fastball 0-2 high or outside, and try to get you to chase a slider outside on 1-2. Daisuke would rather challenge the hitters. 3-2 will be a low fastball.

recommendation: jump on the fastball 0-0 and 3-2, lay off the slider away 1-2, in the hitters counts take the sliders for strikes to get to a 2-2, or 3-2 fastball. Daisuke doesn't want to go 3-2, and doesn't want to walk you.

Dwarf Grit Report as of 5/05/2008. Yost preserves bullpen pecking order.

gmLI            4/28  5/05 
Eric Gagne      2.16  2.15
Guillermo Mota  2.13  1.86
Brian Shouse    1.82  1.57
Salomon Torres  1.51  1.42
David Riske     1.34  1.21
Mitch Stetter   1.32  1.13  
Seth McClung    1.12  0.94
Derrick Turnbow 1.03  0.90

gmLI: A pitcher’s average LI when he enters the game.
LI (leverage index): A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango.

data and definitions from fangraphs

I shot Al of bleedcubbieblue.com an e-mail not too long ago and gave him 5 questions to answer about the Chicago Cubs. Al's a passionate fan and replied very quickly with some good natured answers. Many thanks Al!

With the off-day yesterday, is there any chance that Hill gets protected from having to face the Brewers again and Zambrano takes his start on Thursday to face Yovani Gallardo?

That's exactly what Lou Piniella's plan is -- the Brewers kill lefties and Lou wanted to keep both Hill and Ted Lilly (whose turn wouldn't have come up anyway) away from them. Hill will pitch Friday in St. Louis.

I saw recently that you made it to your 10,000th game. That is awesome, congratulations! What are the odds you get to another 10,000 games before seeing a world series winner?

Ha-ha-ha. Funny! You've got two things confused. The Cubs franchise won its 10,000th game last week. I saw my TWO thousandth Cub game last Monday.

The rest of the question, I can answer this way: Who'll win a World Series first: the Cubs or the Brewers?

Which contract is going to hurt the most over the next few years? Zambrano at $18 million, Ramirez at $15 million, Fukudome at $14 million, Lee at $13 million, Lilly at $12 million, or Marquis at $10 million.

Probably Marquis, although you have the numbers wrong. Marquis is due $17 million combined this year and next. Lilly's deal is for $10 million a year.

The other four deals look pretty good right now, wouldn't you say?

Is it frustrating as a fan to see your ballclub make roster decisions based on just four games? On a related note, how frustrating is it to see the plug pulled on the Felix Pie experiment so quickly two years in a row? Is it possible that Pie's high strikeout rates in the minors are indicators that he'd never have success in the majors and no one in the Cubs organization recognizes that?

What roster decisions are you talking about that took only four games? I'm not sure which moves were made then. Do you mean sending Carmen Pignatiello down? He was only a temporary fix anyway.

I'm disappointed in what I've seen from Pie so far, because I think he has more talent than he's shown. He's never really had a chance to play every day for a couple of months to show what he can really do.

Strikeout rates -- really, who cares? Alfonso Soriano strikes out a lot, and that infuriates us at times. But Soriano can also carry a team. I'm not suggesting Pie is that good or going to be that good. But I think he deserves a chance.

Once again the Cubs have 30+ million in payroll advantage over any other team in the NL Central. Hendry's got a losing record as GM and yet always has one of the top payrolls in the national league to work with. You'd think he'd breeze into the playoffs like the Yankees and Red Sox do every year. How long does Hendry have to produce the winner, how quickly does the plug get pulled on the Hendry experiment?

That all depends on what happens this year with ownership about to change. Hendry may have a losing record, but he's also got two playoff appearances in his six years as GM (really, 5 1/2, because he took over in the middle of 2002 and had a playoff team the next year, his first full year). That's not so bad, is it? If the Cubs make the playoffs in 2008 and advance farther than they did last year, I can't see new ownership dumping a successful baseball operations department.

Editor's Note: Apologies on the mistake on Al's number of games attended, congrats to the cubs on 10,000 franchise wins, and congrats to Al on 2,000 cub games attended! Quite a feat!

On the contracts, I just picked a year near the end of the deal. So according to Cot's Baseball Contracts:

* Zambrano is due $18 million in 2012
* Ramirez is due $15 million in 2011
* Fukudome is due $14 million in 2011
* Lee is due $13 million in 2010
* Lilly is due $12 million in 2010
* Marquis is due $10 million in 2009

Thanks again Al for being such a a great sport!

Dwarf Grit Report as of 4/28/2008.

                4/14  4/28  change
Eric Gagne      2.11  2.16  +.05
Guillermo Mota  1.80  2.13  +.33
Brian Shouse    2.17  1.82  -.45
Salomon Torres  1.17  1.51  +.34
David Riske     1.59  1.34  -.25
Mitch Stetter         1.32    
Seth McClung    0.28  1.12  +.84
Derrick Turnbow 0.30  1.03  +.73

gmLI: A pitcher’s average LI when he enters the game.
LI (leverage index): A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango.

data and definitions from fangraphs

Now, having your number four hitter always walked isn't all that bad of a thing. Base runners are important. But when you've got your pitcher batting 8th, even with nobody out when Fielder is walked, you've got three chances to knock him in.

Odds are pretty decent that the opposing pitcher can get at least two of those three. Odds are also decent that the lone hit, if there is one, won't score fielder. What do you have now? 2 outs and the pitcher up at the plate.

The only time you'd be smart not to walk Prince is with someone on first base. Otherwise, it's a fairly safe bet that you'll get a double play, or be pitching to the pitcher with two outs, or maybe just end up having the pitcher lead off the next inning. Braun and Fielder need to be bumped up to second and third in the batting order with the pitcher batting 8th. You need the extra hitter between Fielder and the pitcher to help cut down the intentional walks.

Brian Shouse    2.17
Eric Gagne      2.11
Guillermo Mota  1.80
David Riske     1.59
Salomon Torres  1.17
Derrick Turnbow 0.30
Seth McClung    0.28

gmLI: A pitcher’s average LI when he enters the game.
LI (leverage index): A measure of how important a particular situation is in a baseball game depending on the inning, score, outs, and number of players on base, created by Tom Tango.

data and definitions from fangraphs