I swore up and down that when I started this blog it wouldn't be filled with ZIPs, PECOTAs, BABIPs and all the other numbers that make my eyes glaze over.
But I thought for some of you who are more statistically inclined, you might be interested in this. (Hat tip to Larry at Viva El Birdos for the link.)
Over at Baseball Think Factory, "SG in ATL", one of the regular posters there, ran some ZIPs data through a Diamond Mind simulator -- which, I think, looks something like this:
You'll have to scroll down, incidentally, to comment #67 in this Baseball Think Factory thread to get the results of the 2006 season being "played" 100 times, with the results crunched to get an "average" standing of the teams, based on the data input. It came out like this (you can see the full data in the BTF thread; for simplicity's sake, here are just the W-L records):
AL East Boston 92-70 New York 85-77 Toronto 83-79 Baltimore 73-89 Tampa Bay 70-92 AL Central Minnesota 86-76 Cleveland 83-79 Chicago 82-80 Detroit 82-80 Kansas City 65-97 AL West Oakland 96-66 Los Angeles 85-77 Texas 80-82 Seattle 79-83 NL East New York 90-72 Philadelphia 89-73 Atlanta 81-81 Washington 75-87 Florida 70-92 NL Central St. Louis 96-66 Chicago 85-77 Pittsburgh 82-80 Milwaukee 80-82 Houston 74-88 Cincinnati 69-93 NL West Los Angeles 87-75 San Francisco 83-79 Arizona 77-85 Colorado 76-86 San Diego 75-88There's more at BTF, including stats on highest and lowest win total generated for each team, the number of division titles and wild cards won, etc.
Well. First of all, remember that the major league players don't play on a computer. They don't play exactly as their stat lines say they're supposed to; these figures obviously do not factor in injuries, or future acquisitions (clearly, they are showing the Astros without Roger Clemens, for example). And to my mind, this simulation would have been more valid if it had been run 100,000 times, rather than just 100 times.
Food for thought, though. I know it ought to generate some discussion here. Have fun.