I wasn't going to post about this, but it seems the topic du jour, so here goes.
Will Matt Garza be traded before his next start? Jim Bowden (yes, consider the source) says:
The biggest name out there right now is Chicago Cubs right-hander Matt Garza, and I'm told there is an 80 percent chance he is traded before his next start, which is scheduled to come next Monday or Tuesday in Arizona.
80 percent? Exactly how do you calculate an "80 percent" chance of a trade? Anyway, here's the tweet that has everyone buzzing:
Other teams say CHC are asking for last and best offers on Matt Garza, and they think he'll be traded before he throws another pitch for CHC— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) July 18, 2013
The first part is something we've always expected -- that the Cubs are looking for the best possible return for Garza. "Best and final" -- if you are familiar with any sort of contract negotiations, you know that "best and final" doesn't always mean "best and final"; it's a way for one side to squeeze more out of the other.
Olney says "other teams" think Garza will be traded before he throws another pitch for the Cubs. That could very well be true, but if Theo and Jed don't get what they think is fair value in a "best and final" offer, Garza will take the mound Monday in Arizona, still nine days away from the non-waiver deadline.
Let me play Jim Bowden for a moment. I think the chances he'll be dealt before Monday are 50-50. How do I know that? I'm speculating, like everyone else.
Now it's your turn. Speculate away in the comments. (BONUS! Tell us what Garza is doing with his shirt.)