MLB Bullets Got A Bad Break

Of course the Cubs beat the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw. I certainly wasn't predicting a no-hitter by Kershaw or anything. I was really planning on dropping a big bet in Vegas on the Cubs for last night's game.

• The big news is that Mets ace Matt Harvey has a partial tear of his UCL. The Mets are going to have to wait until the swelling goes down before doing an MRI and seeing how bad it is before deciding what the next step is.
• Will Carroll has everything you ever wanted to know about Harvey's injury.
• Harvey himself thinks he's going to be ready for Opening Day. The power of positive thinking, I guess.
• Jonah Keri looks at Harvey's situation and says we can't blame the Mets. He also points out that almost everyone who opts for rehabilitation over Tommy John surgery ends up having the surgery eventually. But he also uses Daniel Hudson as an example that Tommy John surgery is not without risks. Not everyone recovers from it.
• Jeff Zimmerman at Fangraphs uses a lot of pitching data and gifs of Harvey to conclude that it was probably just one of those things.
• Ben Lindbergh in Baseball Prospectus doesn't use gifs, but uses a lot more data and charts to show this injury really came without much warning. Both articles are worth reading and examining the data if you can follow those sorts of things.
• Rob Neyer asks if things would have been different if Harvey didn't throw so hard.
• Mike Axisa doesn't bother to use any data but has the same conclusion: pitchers just get hurt sometimes. Often, in fact.
• It didn't get nearly as much publicity, but Rafael Betancourt has a complete tear of his UCL. At age 38 and a free agent this offseason, his career is likely over.
• I've been critical of the NFL and their reaction to their concussion problems, but MLB has an issue with concussions as well, especially with catchers. But MLB does look to be making steps towards addressing the problem.
• According to Forbes, the most profitable team in the history of baseball is the 2013 Houston Astros. Between all their TV money and not paying anyone more than $1.4 million this year, it's a huge windfall according to Forbes, even with attendance way down. (And by the way, I love linking to Yahoo! because I think they've got some great writing there. But boy oh boy does their new site redesign stink. Because you always want to make great writing more difficult to read with noisy backgrounds.)
• Both the Astros and MLB vehemently deny the Forbes report. Normally I'd be skeptical of such a denial, but Colin Wyers at Baseball Prospectus thinks that Forbes' estimate is badly flawed. The biggest issue is that a lot of that TV money is coming from CSN Houston, of which the Astros are the largest owner. CSN Houston is having trouble getting on cable systems and is apparently losing a lot of money: money that would have to be covered by the owners, primarily the Astros. So much of their profits are likely money just shifting from one pocket to another and back again. Still, I bet the Astros are making a good chunk of change this season, even if it's not a record windfall.
• Grant Brisbee asks why the public gets so upset when a team doesn't spend any money (like the Astros) or spends all the money in the world (like the Dodgers).
• DJ Gallo has suggestions for other teams to profit like the Astros. I especially like the suggestion the Cubs sell ad space on the rats.
• The Mets traded Marlon Byrd and John Buck to the Pirates.
• The Pirates may not be done trading as they're taking a long look at Justin Morneau.
• Awkward! Turns out that yesterday was supposed to be Marlon Byrd T-Shirt night at Citi Field.
• If you've been watching the MLB Network lately, you've no doubt heard of Brian Kenny's movement to "Kill The Win," complete with a hashtag. Jon Heyman thinks that Kenny has a point, but that the win-loss statistic for pitchers still has some meaning.
• Craig Calcaterra usually agrees with Kenny on such matters, but in this case he's mostly on Heyman's side. He wants to keep the W-L stat, but to realize that the stat is mostly just a way of calling attention to other, meaningful statistics.
• Heyman also lays odds on which managers are not likely to be back next season. Other than Davey Johnson, who had announced at the beginning of the year this was his last season in Washington, the only one he has in real danger is Eric Wedge.
• One he had as relatively safe is now almost completely safe as the Blue Jays announced that manager John Gibbons will return in 2014.
• In case you had any doubt, Marlins owner Jeff Loria is a petty, vindictive jerk.
• Miguel Cabrera is getting more pitches to hit because Prince Fielder bats behind him.
• Allen Craig can hit a fastball. Don't throw him one.
• Tom Verducci argues that giving pitchers a break from throwing mid-season could have positive benefits. He uses Jon Lester as an example.
• That's pretty much what the Rays are doing when the demoted Jeremy Hellickson to the minors. He won't pitch there, but demoting him opens up a roster spot in the majors while he rests.
• Scott Boras is hinting that Bryce Harper should get a 12 year contract. You know, if I ran the Nationals, I'd actually consider it.
• Touching upon a big debate in the comments of the last bullets, David Schoenfield asks whether reaching on an error should be included in a player's OBP. He concludes that reaching on an error is not a random event and that there is some skill involved.
• The Red Sox got a bargain in Shane Victorino.
• Year after year, the Braves always seem to put together a great bullpen, even if it's mostly not the same guys (except for Craig Kimbrel).
• Former major leaguer Benny Ayala remembers getting called up to the majors and his first hit, which was a home run.
• Hunter Pence likes to talk about everything other than his tremendous home run or where he'll be playing next season.
• Finally, Ben Lindbergh has a must-read article in Grantland called "The Tragedy of Derek Jeter's Defense." It's full of gifs comparing Jeter's defense to that of Brendan Ryan. It's really the best, most reasoned explanation as to why Derek Jeter is a very bad defensive shortstop. The tragedy is that he didn't have to be.