The Cubs are 69-51. At 120 games in, we have just a bit over one-quarter of the season left. Instead of looking back, let's look ahead at what the Cubs and their two divisional rivals have remaining in this season in which all three could make the postseason.
At Fangraphs, their playoff odds chart shows the Cardinals with a 100 percent chance of making the postseason, the Pirates at 98.6 percent, and the Cubs at 89.8 percent. St. Louis is shown with a 75.5 percent chance of taking the division title, the Pirates at 20.4 percent and the Cubs at 4.1 percent.
That sounds about right. Here are the remaining schedules (beginning today, Saturday, August 22) for each of the three teams. Both the Cubs and Pirates have 42 games remaining; the Cardinals have 41.
Braves (2), Indians (1), at Giants (3), at Dodgers (3), Reds (3), Diamondbacks (3), at Cardinals (3), at Phillies (4), at Pirates (4), Cardinals (3), Brewers (3), Pirates (3), Royals (1), at Reds (3), at Brewers (3)
Each team has things that are advantageous and disadvantageous. The Cubs have a chance to make up for the Phillies sweep, playing them on the road. Nine of the last 12 Cubs games are against the bad Brewers and Reds, but they also have to go to the West Coast for six games next week. The Pirates have seven games left with the Rockies and four with the Marlins and get their last six at home, but have only two off days the rest of the year (I've added the August 3 rainout to the Pirates and Cubs schedule, even though it has not yet been officially rescheduled). The Cardinals and Pirates play three times in the season's last week and St. Louis gets to finish its schedule against the woeful Braves.
At this writing the Cubs stand three games behind the Pirates for the first wild-card spot and 7½ games behind the Cardinals for the division lead. I could cite many teams that have overcome a 7½-game deficit with 42 games to go and won divisions or taken wild-card spots; you could cite even more teams that failed to do so. Both of us would be correct, and I'm certainly not predicting that the Cubs can catch the Cardinals.
I will only say that with six games remaining between the two teams, they certainly have the opportunity to do so. They definitely have a chance to catch the Pirates, with seven games left against them. They're 7-5 against Pittsburgh and 3-3 at PNC Park, where the Pirates overall have one of the best home records in baseball (42-20).
Let me also point out that since the Cubs were swept by the Cardinals in St. Louis in late June, the Cubs are 30-16, the Cardinals 26-20.
It ought to be an interesting last six weeks.