Cubs Heroes and Goats: The Wins vs. The Losses

Of the three years that I have done the Heroes and Goats feature, I would venture to say that this year has definitely been the most interesting. One of the main reasons for that feeling is that the feature feels like is has engaged readers a bit more than in past years, very likely due to the Cuyler and Marmol polls being a daily addition this year. The audience feels like it has also gotten a little wider this year than in the previous years as I've even gotten the occasional comment from readers on Twitter, which is most certainly a departure from the first two seasons. One thing is for sure: It's been a heck of a lot of fun.

And the best part is... the fun's not over yet. Not even close.

Over the past few weeks, I have had some requests come in from readers that wondered about how the chart would look if only the wins were considered as a group, as well as the losses. It was definitely an interesting take, one that I had not thought of before myself. Going into it, I wasn't really sure what to expect from the results; my only real thought was that the starting pitching would dominate the chart in the wins as they had done all season on the chart regardless of win or loss, but aside from that I didn't have a gauge on what the rest of it would look like. Some of the results will likely come as a surprise; others, not as much.

Also, as part of the exercise, I wanted to include the players' WPA that was earned in their podium appearances over the course of the season; I'll refer to that figure as the pWPA here for short (and if any stat organizations are out there reading this, you can gladly use it yourself as well... just tell people that I came up with it first). It's important to clarify that the pWPA is not necessarily the players' cumulative WPA for the season; it only reflects the WPA that they earned as a result of being in the top or bottom three spots for the game.

With all that said, here's a look back at how the plus / minus chart ended for the season as a whole:

As for the chart for the Cubs' 103 wins this season, here's how that breaks down:

As I expected, the starting rotation did end up dominating in the wins, taking five of the top six spots on the chart led by Jon Lester at plus-52.5 with a pWPA in the wins of a whopping 5.616, a figure that's even more amazing given that it comes from only 23 total podium appearances in wins for the season (21 Heroes, two Goats). One surprise was the appearance of Hector Rondon in the top five, with a plus-15 in the wins and a pWPA of 1.606. It's also very easy to see that the dominance of the rotation made it very hard for any non-pitcher to gain any ground in the wins as Anthony Rizzo was the best of the lot... and was only able to end up at plus-8.

It came as no surprise to me whatsoever that Kris Bryant had a monster pWPA of 4.065 in the wins, yet was only able to get to minus-5 as it seemed like he was constantly the hard-luck loser over the course of the season. He wasn't alone in posting a positive pWPA in the wins but ending up way down in the charts; just look at Addison Russell who had a pWPA of 1.822 and ended up at minus-33.5 for it. I must admit that I was a bit surprised that Jason Heyward actually was further negative on the chart in the wins (minus-49.5) than he was for the season as a whole (minus-48.5); at least the pWPA matched the chart position in his case.

And for the losses:

This was one area where I was truly surprised. With one exception, the starting pitchers in the losses were all pretty much podium-neutral. Except for Jason Hammel, that is, who absolutely got pummeled in the losses and ended up at a chart-worst minus-18. He was the true Jekyll-and-Hyde story of the rotation, putting up the best ratio in the Cubs' wins (31 Hero points and only one Goat point), but as the season went along it just fell apart for him. He also was tied for the most Billy Goats in the losses with six, joining Dexter Fowler at the top of that list. At the other end of the chart, it was in the losses that Rizzo made the most gains, posting a plus-26.5 in the losing efforts to go along with a pWPA of 1.346, which is quite impressive. Russell also appears near the top of the chart in the losses, posting a plus-12 while only earning a pWPA of 0.091 in the process (I call that the anti-Bryant). It was the losses that kept Rondon from being higher on the chart for the entire season, as his plus-15 in the wins was heavily offset by his minus-8.5 in the losses, which is to be expected; it's hard to be a closer and end up with a negative WPA in a winning effort.

So what did you think? Did the results match your expectations? Were there some results that completely surprised you? We'd love to hear from you in the comments.