FanPost

Looking ahead to 2019: Cubs Hitters

While 2018 didn't end the way we all hoped, the Cubs had multiple obstacles to overcome, (Darvish' season-ending injury, Chatwood's ineffectiveness, Rizzo's slow start, injuries to Bryant and Morrow, disappointing seasons from Contreras, Happ and Russell, Russell's spousal abuse problems, playing almost the whole of September without a break and the Brewers going on a really hot run the last month), so it's a miracle that they were able to win 95 games with all that going on. They still gave themselves a chance to advance in the playoffs and against all that adversity they nevertheless did us proud, disappointing it may have been but other teams would've buckled under that sort of pressure.

So what can we expect in 2019? Without factoring in any new acquisitions, (Harper, Machado, et al), I thought i'd speculate on how each of the Cubs hitters might fare in the coming season. I'm choosing just the hitting line-up because this is where improvements need to be made, not necessarily by adding guys from other teams, but improvements in approach from the players we know WILL be back next season. (*Numbers in brackets are the players numbers from last season).

BEN ZOBRIST - (BA .305, OBP .378, OPS .817, HR 9, RBI 58) - What can you sat about the "old guy", he continues to churn out great at-bats, has a fantastic eye at the plate and a professional hitting approach evidenced by his .378 OBP and he had one of his best offensive seasons. For an older guy, he keeps himself in great shape and his ability to play multiple positions fits nicely into the working practices of this Cubs line-up. I doubt Ben will come anywhere near the numbers he put up in 2018 but even a small drop-off has to be expected of a 37 year old nearing the end of his career. He remains an important veteran presence on this still fairly young Cubs team.

EXPECTATION: Another solid season with the bat but BA and OBP down on 2018.

ANTHONY RIZZO - (BA .283, OBP 376, OPS .846, HR 25, RBI 101) - Rizz got off to a very slow start but the competitor he is, he stuck with it and had another fine season. You're not going to keep stars like Rizzo down for too long and Anthony proved to be just as dangerous in the batters box as he has been since he joined the club. Rizzo will look on last season as a 'down' year but when you can still drive in over 100 runs, you're still making a massive contribution to the team.

EXPECTATION: Homer totals around the 30 mark and 100+ rbi's is well within reach. Of course avoiding another slow start would be great but I expect Rizz to put up his usual impressive numbers while playing stellar defense at first.

KRIS BRYANT - (BA .272, OBP .374, OPS .834, HR 13, RBI 52) - An injury plagued season for Kris but when he was on the field he still put up decent numbers. A dodgy shoulder is a tricky thing, the key to another dominant offensive season for Bryant is to remain healthy and also quit 'biting' on poor breaking balls off the plate, if he does these two things, he may take home a second MVP award.

EXPECTATION: Hard to gauge until we see how he performs in Spring Training. I expect his father to work with him to get him into playing shape. If the shoulder behaves, 30+ homers and 100+ rbi are certainly doable.

JAVIER BAEZ - (BA .290, OBP .326, OPS .881, HR 34, RBI 111) - An MVP-type season from Javy, the 'breakout season' to end all 'breakout seasons', can't say a really expected him to have an incredible year like he did but it was impressive and it was exciting. Baez does so many things on a baseball field that make your jaw drop. Great season notwithstanding, he still gets himself out at the plate rather tamely, swinging at pitches nowhere near the plate, this isn't being picky, he really does need to walk more, (29 in 606 at bats, many of the intentional type). But hard to criticise after such a great season.

EXPECTATION: It was an amazing year for Javy but he's not going to duplicate it next season IMO. To get close to those numbers again he's going to have to improve his plate discipline, i'm really hoping he does. He's making more contact but he needs to guard against opposing pitchers tempting him with 'garbage' out of the strikezone. A home run count in the high 20's is not unreasonable and he's capable of driving in 100 again and i'm expecting a like number of stolen bases.

WILLSON CONTRERAS - (BA .249, OBP .339, OPS .730, HR 10, RBI 54) - I imagine Willson will want to put last season firmly behind him, he never really got going at the plate and there were a lot of occasions where he became totally frustrated at the plate. Are we looking at another Geovany Soto? I don't think so, Willson is a much more athletic player than Soto was and he has an insatiable will to win, he's also one of baseballs fastest catchers on the bases.

EXPECTATION: I'd expect Willson to work hard this off-season, he has something to prove and he's far better than those 2018 numbers. Improving his plate discipline would go a long way to him having a bounceback season. Improve the discipline and i'd expect 15 to 20 homers and an rbi total nearing 80. The .249 batting average of last season was an aberration.

JASON HEYWARD - (BA .270, OBP .335, OPS .731, HR 8, RBI 57) - With Jason it's all about looking inside the numbers and shaking your head thinking of unfulfilled potential. Sure the guys getting a ton of money and should be a big time contributor with the bat but unfortunatey what you see is what you get. Check out the OBP, it was only 9 points higher than Javy Baez, who has way more plate discipline issues than Heyward. Though the batting average of .270 wasn't that bad, Jason has a real tough time hitting the ball to the outfield, his swing doesn't allow him to explode into the baseball quick enough, resulting in a lot of weak groundouts to the pull side and 8 home runs in 440 at bats from your rightfielder is a porous return. Heyward's value lies in his tremendous defense, that's where he shines but until he can get that swing reworked, his offensive contributions will be minimal.

EXPECTATION: Sorry to say not too many expectations that Heyward will suddenly have a breakout season with the bat, there's still too many holes there. One encouraging sign from last year though, he hit a lot of balls hard to the opposite field for hits. Somewhere around last year's numbers seems the fit for Heyward unfortunately.

KYLE SCHWARBER - (BA .238, OBP .356, OPS .823, HR 26, RBI 61) - Is it really all 'home run or nothing' with Kyle Schwarber these days? Well yes pretty much. His 78 walks boosted his OBP to .356 but he struckout 140 times in 428 at bats. Kyle's always going to launch balls into orbit but he gets too passive at the plate on a lot of occasions and he swings through a lot of high fastballs because pitchers know he'll go after them. It's nice to have another power bat in your line-up but you have to be able to improve the other parts of your hitting approach, Kyle looks to have regressed in that regard.

EXPECTATION: It's not all doom and gloom for Kyle. He's still very young and he looks like the sort of player who can make adjustments. He has the quickest hands through the swing of any Cub player and this allows him to hit the ball extremely hard to any part of a ballpark. The trick is noticing how opposing pitchers are trying to get you out and Kyle guessed wrong a whole bunch of times last year. If Kyle isn't traded, we'll see the usual high home run total and an improvement in the batting average, he'll still K a lot but maybe that figure will also go down a bit.

IAN HAPP - (BA .233, OBP .353, OPS .761, HR 15, RBI 44) - Sometimes you just have to be patient with young players until they make certain adjustments. Happ's season in a lot of ways mirrored Schwarbers, a low batting average, a high walk rate inflating his OBP and a mass of strikeouts, (167 in 387 at bats in Ian's case). With Happ it's all about over expansion of the strikezone, something that afflicts Baez, Contreras, Russell and Almora, (notice, all the young players). He was meat and drink to junkball pitchers last season, sometimes swinging at balls around his ankles, like Contreras, he didn't make the adjustments per at-bat and became increasingly frustrated. He's still a threat to put one into the bleachers now and again but his pitch recognition needs to improve. These young guys should be making the adjustments and the improvements in their game and becoming solid offensive contributors.

EXPECTATION: Happ will continue to blast the odd impressive home run next season if he stays a Cub and i'm sure his numbers will improve, they totally nosedived last year, so the only way is up.

ALBERT ALMORA JR - (BA .286, OBP .323, OPS 701, HR 5, RBI 41) - Albert started the season well and still finished with a .286 batting average but just about everything in between was a bit...meh, apart from his defense which was again outstanding. Almora doesn't walk much, (24 walks in 444 at bats) and he loves to attack a pitchers first pitch, he's had a bit of success with that approach but that only helps you up to a point, you have to stay disciplined in the rest of the at bat if it continues and that's when Albert struggles. He was never going to be known as a home run hitter, though he can punish any mistake, especially fastballs, so he has to contribute in other ways, a better approach at the plate is essential.

EXPECTATION: Almora loves playing the game, you can see it in his face before, during and after games and he's a young man with enormous talent. His defense is out of this world but the Cubs are not asking him to match it on offense, just make better choices in the batters box. An increase in home runs isn't out of the realm of possibility, though the high batting average was more down to a hot start than any consistency at the plate thereafter.

TOMMY LA STELLA - (BA .266, OBP .340, OPS .672, HR 1, RBI 19) - Tommy's value to this team sometimes gets overlooked, he's a fantastically smart hitter where no at bat is squandered and he's embraced the pinch hitting role on the club and become one of the best pinch hitters in baseball. Opposing pitchers hate pitching to Tommy, he can spoil so many tough pitches in an at bat and can cut down his swing and hit to all fields.

EXPECTATION: More of the same from Tommy I expect, a very versatile player with a great attitude toward the game.

VINCENT CARATINI - (BA .232, OBP .293, OPS .597, HR 2, RBI 21) - Okay, backup catchers aren't meant to produce much with the bat so the numbers Caratini put up are about par for the course. With a year of Major League service under his belt, i'd expect Caratini to be more comfortable facing NL pitching next season, that is if the Cubs don't pursue someone else.

EXPECTATION: Caratini wasn't great filling in for Contreras last season but he didn't need to be. I'd expect more of the same kind of production.

DAVID BOTE - (BA .239, OBP .319, OPS .727, HR 6, RBI 33) - When Bryant went on the DL, Bote filled in magnificently, we can all recall his many clutch hits, especially the walk-off grand slam against the Nationals. But Bote also showed his worth on defense, playing a fine third base. He was prone to the usual Minor League callup hiccoughs like swinging at too many poor breaking balls and being over anxious but it was a fine initiation to the Majors for Bote and he at least warrants time as a Cubs bench player in future.

EXPECTATION: It's possible Bote goes down to Iowa next season or he may make the big club out of Spring Training. One thing he has showed is a 'bulldog' mentality with the Cubs, something Joe Maddon appreciates, so he will be back at some point. Hopefully he can improve on the plate discipline when he plays for the Cubs again.

I haven't listed Daniel Murphy or Addison Russell for various reasons. Murphy because he may well not be a Cub next season and Russell because it's looking like he won't be either due to his domestic violence troubles. I will say that i'd love to have Murphy back next season and here's why: He's like Wade Boggs or Rod Carew with the bat, only with more power. He can hit the ball to ALL FIELDS, something this team needs more of desperately and he's smart in the batters box, very rarely fooled by an opposing pitcher. Okay, he's lousy defensively but the Cubs need the professional hitting approach he brings. I'd lobby to keep him.

So there it is. There are obviously improvements to be made and I think they will be made. Theo knows the Cubs were so close last season, they put up with so much and still won 95 games. A return to form from several Cubs, maybe an acquisition here and there, a return to health from Darvish, Morrow and Bryant and keeping Hammels around a while longer gives this team a great chance of reaching postseason again.

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