Cub Tracks shortens up

Cubs Insider’s Jeff Burdick has started the conversation about new stats. The issue I have is that stats are not predictive: nothing is. They measure past production okay, and allow for a certain degree of extrapolation... but clearly not much, or enough, because people and circumstance are so chimerical and capricious.

But still... new stats. Contrary to common belief, I am stat-conversant. I’ve followed Bill James since pre-1984. I miss The National, a stats-dependent publication if I ever read one, and read Baseball Weekly on a weekly basis until they bundled it with auto racing, which I loathe.

The issue is that modern statistical analysis is math-dependent, and the average fan doesn’t have the math. Plus, as Keith Law notes, tradition. “It’s always been this way”, the meatball says. “Why should it change?”

“Well, because it’s wrong, and says nothing,” says the stat-nerd. “You’re dumb.”

I like to try to explain things with words, and I implicitly trust my eye-test, honed over 50-some-very-odd years of watching the game, participating in several levels of the organized game, and so on, but I’d be interested in seeing which stats you think best effect predictive analysis and extrapolation. Will pick up on this here and there in future columns. There’s not a lot of new writing today — we might as well entertain ourselves.

You got stat-cumen? Inventive? Tell us about it.

Those AFL kids looked GOOOOD, especially Trent Giambrone. That was fun. No food for thought today — short and sweet, like Danny DeVito. As always * means autoplay on, or annoying ads, or both (directions to remove for Firefox and Chrome).

Cubs News and Notes:

• Jeff Burdick (Cubs Insider): OPS is tired, Cubs need new stat to define ‘Production Over Talent’ era. “After all, OPS does not directly measure production.”
• Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): Theo Epstein: Decision not to extend Maddon was not punitive, and does not foreshadow change. “To me, the story really is I am excited about Joe being all in on 2019,” Epstein told 670 The Score.
• Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Cubs want David Ross to have ‘Expanded Role,’ rival execs think he’s next manager. Sahadev Sharma’s straw poll of rival execs {$} revealed a consensus that Grandpa Rossy would be Maddon’s successor. Brett Taylor piles on.
• RJ Anderson (CBS Sports*): Longtime Cubs starter Carlos Zambrano is pitching again and wants to return to the majors. “Zambrano’s chances of pitching in the majors are slim.”
• Grant Brisbee (SB Nation): Manny Machado is going to be extremely rich, and every team should want him. “This is all dingus stuff...and being a dingus is but a mild impediment to all-time greatness.”
• Bruce Levine (670 The Score): Whit Merrifield would be quality fit for Cubs. “Merrifield possesses the on-base ability and versatility the Cubs seek.”

Current 40-man roster, updated daily. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are conspicuously absent.

MLB free agents list.