2019 Bill James Handbook Cubs projections

Each year, the baseball handbook that bears the name of the father of sabermetrics, Bill James, has a wealth of baseball information that comes out just at the right time, the beginning of the offseason, a worthy tome to peruse all winter.

In addition to career statistics for every active major-league player, the book has articles by James and others on various baseball topics, including one by James on current trends in the game, including “launch angle” and the newest fad, bullpenning.

The Bill James Handbook also includes the annual Fielding Bible Awards. For the third straight year, Javier Baez is the winner of the “multi-position” award, something Rawlings should consider giving as part of its Gold Glove Awards. The panel that votes on these awards includes Ben Lindbergh, the BIS Video Scouts, former major leaguer Chris Singleton, Hal Richman, Joe Posnanski, John Dewan, Mark Simon, Rob Neyer, Peter Gammons, Travis Sawchik and SABR President Vince Gennaro.

Of Baez, they write:

When slick fielding shortstop Addison Russell went out with injury, then later a suspension, Javy Baez stepped over from his second base position without missing a beat for the Cubs. His defense is elite at both second base and shortstop. He also moves to third base and first base, whenever needed, with tremendous success. He saved five runs at second base, three at shortstop and two more at third base in 2018. He led all infielders (not counting first basemen) with 46 Good Fielding Plays in 2018. He is excellent turning double plays from both second base and shortstop. HIs ability to make tags on throws is legendary.

The entire book, which includes statistical reviews of the 2018 season and analysis of things such as “hits lost and gained to the shift,” is worth reading. But what you really want to see are the Bill James projections for Cubs pitchers and hitters for 2019, so here they are. I’ve added one free agent who ... well, I don’t think the Cubs will sign him, but maybe you do.

Bill James’ system, which is based on the last couple of years of player performance, the player’s age and other factors, shows Kris Bryant as having a nice bounce-back year from injury, a good year for Kyle Schwarber, a better year for Willson Contreras and even a very good season for Ben Zobrist at age 38.

David Bote, for some reason, even though he played in 74 games and had 210 plate appearances, was not listed in James’ projections.

Here are the pitcher projections:

Well. I’m sure we’d be pretty happy with a season like that from Yu Darvish. A lot of these other projections, I think, have ERA’s that are too high, and I don’t think the James system quite knew what to do with Brandon Morrow, who is projected to have a 30-save season in only 42 appearances with an ERA of almost 4. That doesn’t sound like something that would happen in real life.

I think the James system has almost all the Cubs pitcher ERAs too high, perhaps an overreaction to bad first halves by many Cubs starters.

Let’s hope the Cubs hitters come close to what’s shown here, and the Cubs pitchers do better. That would go a long way toward another 95-win season.

You should get this book — it’s full of numbers and interesting articles, well worth your time to pass the cold winter until baseball begins again.