FanPost

Time For Northside Shakeup?


For the better part of 5 years, we Cub fans have been spoiled by high expectations. Best part about it is that most years those expectations have been either met or exceeded-World Series in 2016 and three straight trips to the NLCS. However, it seems like over the last couple of seasons, there’s been something missing. As a fan it’s hard to put your finger on it. Is it the lack of a Grandpa Rossy’s influence for the younger players to gravitate towards in times of strife? Is it a prolonged hangover from the biggest World Series win in baseball history (save for Boston in ‘04 perhaps)? It’s hard to say, but something is missing the last two years.

Last season was the first time this core was truly hit by any crippling form of injury bug. Losing Bryant clearly sapped the teams collective power, but offensively the group underachieved anyway. Aside from the always reliable Rizzo, and an MVP caliber season from Baez, nobody in the lineup actually caused other teams much heartburn. The starting rotation was good, but not great, and at a time where power is a real concern top to bottom, one has to ponder if Jimenez would be a nice addition from the system going into next season, especially with the monetary concerns the organization faces. Essentially, would you rather have him or Q for the next few seasons?

My prevailing question as a fan is: are the Cubs stuck (At least for this upcoming season)? Several contracts come off thebooks next year, but raises in arbitration for much of the core will almost certainly take their place. Maybe there’s a way this team can both play for today and tomorrow without diving into the depths of luxury tax hell long term.

Maybe they blow up a portion of this roster. We lived through a rebuild that culminated in something many generations could only dream of. What if we took a page from the Mariners and recognized some organizational shortcomings to create a better future?

The Cubs need bullpen help, and at least one bat, but adding such will push them over the second tier of the luxury tax. I don’t pretend to know those ins and outs, just that as a fan it’s all we’ve heard about this winter. So, how about attaching some of the high upside big league talent to albatross deals-specifically Heyards contract. If I’m the Cubs, these are my moves:

Trade one:

Tigers: Heyward, Almora/Happ, Albertos

Cubs: Jordan Zimmerman, Blain Hardy

Logic: The Cubs attach some prospect and MLB talent in an effort to convince the Tigers to absorb the Heyward contract. I think the sweeteners here are enough to get the deal done, plus the Tigers get two potential building blocks to speed up the rebuild. I would think Happ would need to be the piece going back to get the deal done. He has 5 years of control remaining and is versatile enough to provide exciting value as upside for a team in need of young talent, while Albertos can function as a near big league ready arm to take the place of Zimmerman in the rotation.

The Cubs meanwhile open the future payroll after 2020 to provide for the contracts of Baez and Hendricks (and others) And don’t have to pair someone like Harper and his contract with Heyward’s deal. Heyward really provides little value at this point in his career unless the bat turns into something along the lines of what he was in St. Louis. Also, according to some metrics his defense is slipping as well (at least last year). Plus maybe the absence of the big market spotlight breathes new life into his career. Sure the Cubs give up value in Happ/Albertos, but they rid themselves of a huge free agent miss, and contract in Heyward. The Cubs might get value out of Zimmerman and he at least helps balance out the rotation which presently has three or four lefty arms if you include Montgomery. Throw in Hardy, who provides value as a lefty, and this could be a win-win. It might sting now, but this deal is a means to an end. This deal is a precursor of other deals to come.

Trade two:

Blue Jays: Chatwood, Almora/Happ, Russell

Cubs: Martin, Tepara

Logic: Getting rid of Chatwood is the sole purpose of this idea. There is no room on the roster for him, and you really can’t trust him to absorb any meaningful innings. Reminds me a lot of Edwin Jackson’s failed run with the Cubs. Trading him for Martin means the Cubs can clear him from the books two years early while also getting the veteran catcher they need along with an intriguing relief arm to help solidify the bullpen. My assumption is that Happ is gone, so Almora is the next man up and can fill an outfield void/platoon in center for Toronto. This also gets the Russell drama north of the border and removes the distraction for the Cubs. Russell may provide upside and quality defense until the crop of youngsters arrive for the Blue Jays. Plus Baez is the best shortstop on the roster anyway.

The Cubs now have three positional needs: second base, two outfield slots.

Sign Dozier to a one year deal.

Logic: Off of a down year, I think he could provide a ton of value and give the Cubs a really solid bat capable of sliding in and protecting Rizzo if all pans out. Judging by the Schoop deal, something in the range of 5-7 million helps solidify a need with Zobrist and Bote to back up/split time.

The outfield gets interesting, because I think the Cubs would really love to sign Harper, and ridding the Heyward contract from the books helps as there would be $23.5 million available that otherwise would not after 2021. Having him in the two hole in front of Bryant and Rizzo would do wonders to offset the Goldschmidt addition of the Cards, but also lengthen the lineup. It’s either Harper or the Cubs look at deals for players like Markakis or Brantley. High OB guy with limited power and a decent glove, or they could bet that Brantley stays healthy and they’d be getting a potential borderline star that’s been forgotten on the DL for the majority of the last few years. Markakis-place holder (2 yr deal/$15 mil). Brantley-upside play at maybe too high an asking price (4 yr deal/$60 mil). How about another trade though? A trade that fills CF and makes Harper an easier fit.

Trade three:

Mariners: Montgomery, Duensing, Caratini

Cubs: Mallex Smith, Bautista, Gamel

Logic: The Mariners get a controllable arm that could be used down the road as a trade asset or at least provide quality innings through their rebuild. The Cubs are dealing from a position of strength (rotation), and also provide a path for Alzolay in case of an injury next year. Duensing adds a cheap, veteran bullpen piece for Seattle. For the Cubs, they receive the CF of the future, a high upside relief arm, and a fourth outfielder type to sub in for Schwarber in the later innings. What the Mariners could turn Montgomery into via a deadline deal next year could far outweigh what they’re giving up. With a decent first half and 2.5 years of control, the M’s could turn him into another’s orgs top ten prospect, along with other young talent. After trading Zunino, Cartini at least profiles as a fridge starter.

Trade four:

Braves: Quintana, Kintzler

Cubs: Luis Gohara, Derian Cruz

Logic: The Braves are in search of a veteran arm for the rotation, but seem hesitant to spend the money. Quintana is a perfect solution. He provides veteran expertise, and provides an example for the abundance of youthful arms at a reasonable annual salary for the next two years. Kintzler loses his place in the Cubs pen, so he’s more dump for them, but a good veteran piece next year for Atlanta. Meanwhile the Cubs replenish the farm and get the best pitching prospect of the Epstein era. One that would fit nicely near the top of the rotation next year when Hamels is a free agent. Cruz provides middle infield depth down the line, which is suddenly a concern for the Cubs.

Finally, wrap it all up with Britton to close.

In the end, here is how I would have the roster looking next year:

SP:

Lester

Hendricks

Hamels

Darvish

Zimmerman

(Alzolay/Gohara wait in the wings and either Alec Mills or Underwood represent the sixth starter/long relief option)

Bullpen:

Tepara

Hardy/Rosario

Edwards

Bautista/Kelly

Cishek

Morrow

Strop

Britton

(Rosario/Bautista have options remaining and Maples and Norwood are other depth option in AAA, the Cubs also dump Kintzler and Morrow starts the year on the DL-freeing a roster spot in the interim)

Position Players/Batting Order (Assuming Harper signing and Smith trade):

Smith

Harper

Bryant

Rizzo

Baez

Schwarber

Dozier

Contreras

Bench:

Bote

Zobrist

Martin

Gamel

Over $60 million of the books after 2019, so paying the luxury tax one year becomes much palatable and the Cubs drop several large contracts the following year as well.

I think the Cubs can accomplish something of a reimagining while also maintaining arguably the best roster in the NL and getting the additional power bat they desperately need. They sacrifice some money this year to luxury tax, but really clear the books for the future. Either way they were going to pay an amount towards the tax, at least they get what they want and avoid making tweaks that wouldn’t really accomplish the goal of getting better for next year. Getting a true pitching prospect will be huge for the Cubs as well. Though there are several arms in the mid minors, I don’t think you can look two years out and assume they’re solid in that regard.

Just some ideas of what I would do, as an arm chair GM. Curious what the SB universe thinks.

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