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I see it’s been a while since I’ve done one of these updates, and so it seems an appropriate time to do another. I hadn’t included the acquisitions of Kendall Graveman and Daniel Descalso in the last one, so here’s the updated table of Cubs salary obligations for the 2019 season:
Cubs payroll and luxury tax estimates for 2019
| Player | Salary | Tax hit |
|---|---|---|
| Player | Salary | Tax hit |
| Jon Lester | $25,000,000 | $25,833,333 |
| Jason Heyward | $20,000,000 | $23,000,000 |
| Yu Darvish | $20,000,000 | $21,000,000 |
| Cole Hamels | $20,000,000 | $20,000,000 |
| Kris Bryant | $13,000,000 | $13,000,000 |
| Tyler Chatwood | $12,500,000 | $12,666,667 |
| Ben Zobrist | $12,000,000 | $14,000,000 |
| Anthony Rizzo | $11,000,000 | $5,857,000 |
| Jose Quintana | $10,500,000 | $10,500,000 |
| Brandon Morrow | $9,000,000 | $10,500,000 |
| Kyle Hendricks | $8,200,000 | $8,200,000 |
| Steve Cishek | $6,500,000 | $6,500,000 |
| Pedro Strop | $6,250,000 | $6,250,000 |
| Javier Baez | $6,200,000 | $6,200,000 |
| Brandon Kintzler | $5,000,000 | $5,000,000 |
| Addison Russell | $4,250,000 | $4,250,000 |
| Brian Duensing | $3,500,000 | $3,500,000 |
| Kyle Schwarber | $3,200,000 | $3,200,000 |
| Mike Montgomery | $2,300,000 | $2,300,000 |
| Carl Edwards Jr. | $1,700,000 | $1,700,000 |
| Daniel Descalso | $1,500,000 | $2,500,000 |
| Willson Contreras | $650,000 | $650,000 |
| Albert Almora Jr. | $620,000 | $620,000 |
| Ian Happ | $600,000 | $600,000 |
| Kendall Graveman | $570,000 | $570,000 |
| Victor Caratini | $570,000 | $570,000 |
| David Bote | $570,000 | $570,000 |
| 40-man minor leaguers (estimate) | $2,250,000 | |
| Player benefits & misc (estimate) | $14,500,000 | |
| TOTAL | $205,180,000 | $226,287,000 |
| LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD 1 | $206,000,000 | |
| LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD 2 | $226,000,000 | |
| LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD 3 | $246,000,000 |
As you can see, currently the Cubs under major-league contract for 2019 put the team over the second luxury-tax threshold of $226 million. There are a couple of caveats here. First, as you’ll note, there are 27 players listed here. Not all of them will be on the 25-man roster, obviously, though Graveman will receive his league-minimum salary while spending (likely) the entire season on the 60-day disabled list. The official minimum in 2019 is $555,000; I’ve given modest increases above that to the players at the bottom of the list, all of whom have big-league experience and would likely get that from the Cubs.
The bottom line of all of this can be stated succinctly: The Cubs aren’t going to go over the $246 million top luxury-tax level. Theo Epstein stated in an interview last week that the tax levels aren’t dictating spending. I believe that to be true. Theo has always spent up to his budget, generally leaving $10 million or so for mid-season acquisitions. That space still exists given the table above. My belief is that the budget (for tax purposes) that Theo has been given probably ends just below the $246 million level. Thus the tax isn’t dictating spending, the budget is.
Now, you can argue that the Cubs can afford to spend more than $246 million on baseball players in 2019, and you would be correct in that argument. Between the team’s ticket revenue, broadcast revenue, other ancillary revenues coming in from various sources and a report Monday that baseball as a whole took in $10.3 billion in 2018, there is absolutely no question that the Cubs have the money to blow way past that limit. For reasons that we’ll likely never know, they have chosen not to do so — and they’re not the only team making that choice.
All of this is likely going to end in a labor dispute of some kind between owners and players after the 2021 season, so enjoy the three years you’ve got until then. It’s not going to be pretty.
And in the meantime, what you see is likely what you’ll get when Cubs pitchers and catchers convene in Mesa in about five weeks (the exact report date hasn’t yet been announced, but figure it to be around February 11).