FanPost

1-year deal for Kimbrel?




The time until baseball officially begins is quickly ticking away, and if Craig Kimbrel wants to play this season he's going to need to take a giant step down from the price he asked for at the start of free agency.

It's unrealistic. And unpopular. And maybe unpopular because it's so unrealistic. But a short-term deal between the Cubs and Kimbrel makes a lot of sense if that's what the bearded righty has to settle for.


  • Obviously, the Cubs have injuries right now to key guys in their bullpen (Strop and Morrow). Although he's coming off a season where he wasn't as dominant as in the past, Kimbrel is one of the best relievers in the MLB so if you have the opportunity to sign him, you sign him, right?
  • Per Bleacher Nation, he has the most WAR among relief pitchers since 2010.
  • He's pitched well at Wrigley Field in his career: 1.42 ERA in seven career games; nine strikeouts in 6.1 innings pitched; five saves
  • He's pitched well against NL Central opponents:
---vs. Milwaukee: 12 games, nine saves, 0.00 ERA, 0.474 WHIP, 29 strikeouts in 12.2 innings
----vs Pittsburgh: 0.66 ERA in 14 games, .585 WHIP, 22 strikeouts in 13.2 innings
---vs Cincinnati: 17 games, 12 saves, 2.16 ERA, 1.260 WHIP; 25 strikeouts in 16.2 innings
---vs St. Louis: 22 games, 2.53 ERA, .750 WHIP


Argument against Kimbrel:

  • He's already 30 years old and is coming off one of the worst statistical seasons of his career. The 1.5 WAR he posted last season was just 22nd among qualified relievers, his FIP was the worst of his career, his K/9 were below his career average, and his BB/9 were above his career average. His fastball velocity dipped by over 1 MPH between 2017 and 2018 (batting average against on his fastball was .174 in 2018 and .134 in 2017).
  • He's also coming off a season where he pitched 10.2 innings in the postseason, accumulating a 5.91 ERA in nine games.
Worth saying though, the numbers from last season are still really freaking good---just not quite as freakishly good as previous seasons. If the Cubs were going to sign him to that six year, $100+ million contract he covets, this would be more of an issue. But as a one-year rental, they have nothing to lose betting that one of the best relievers in the MLB will continue to be really good. All the "arguments against Kimbrel" almost become null when you consider this would be a one-year rental type thing.

Adding Kimbrel on a short-term deal is a low-risk proposition and gives this Cub's team an elite, durable reliever (57+ appearances each season since 2011) in the backend of their rotation.

Why not?

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