I put up a FanPost yesterday about the Cubs' impressive record in 1-run games since the start of 2015: 117-92, a .560 winning percentage, including an extraordinary 74-38, a .661 percentage, in 1-run games at home.
That .661, I noted, was 26 percentage points HIGHER than their .635 in ALL games at home over the past 4+ seasons -- and 38 points higher than their .623 in all home games decided by MORE than 1 run!
A reader asked how that compared to the performance of other National League teams.
Sixty database queries and about 150 percentage calculations later, the answer is:
The Cubs are the best team in the league at winning 1-run games by almost every metric.
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Let's start with total wins by a single run in all games, home and road:
117: CUBS
111: Pirates
109: Giants
107: Cards
106: Brewers
102: Nationals
101: Dodgers
100: Diamondbacks
96: Braves
95: Mets
95: Padres
94: Phillies
85: Marlins
84: Rockies
70: Reds
The average is 98 wins, so the Cubs have won 19 more, or 19 percent above the average.
And that average INCLUDES the Cubs' wins.
If you subtract those, the average for the 14 other teams is 97, so the Cubs have won 20 more, or 21 percent more.
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Naturally, teams have played different numbers of 1-run games over the past 4+ seasons. The number ranges from just 166 games for the Rockies to 222 for the Giants.
The Cubs have played the third-most 1-run games, 209, behind the Giants and Cardinals (212). The Diamondbacks (207) and Phillies (202) are the only other teams that have played at least 200.
The average is 196 games, so the Cubs have played 13 more, or 7 percent.
If you subtract the Cubs' games, the average for the 14 other teams is 195, so the Cubs have played 14 more, again 7 percent.
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And how frequently have the teams won in all those games?
Here is the complete list, from best percentage to worst, for all 1-run games, with the number of games in parentheses after the name of the team:
.560: CUBS (209)
.549: Pirates (202)
.544: Brewers (195)
.539: Braves (178)
.523: Dodgers (193)
.520: Nationals (196)
.506: Rockies (166)
.505: Cardinals (212)
.492: Padres (193)
.491: Giants (222)
.483: Diamondbacks (207)
.478: Marlins (178)
.477: Mets (199)
.465: Phillies (202)
.368: Reds (190)
The average, of course, is .500, since there is a winner and a loser in each 1-run game.
So the Cubs are 60 percentage points higher than the league average in ALL 1-run games since 2015!
Note that 8 of the 15 teams are above .500 in 1-run games, and 2 more are within 10 percentage points of .500.
Also note that the Reds are nearly 100 percentage points below the next-lowest team -- and nearly 200 below the league-best Cubs!
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Another way to look at the overall record in 1-run games is difference between wins and losses.
Once more, the Cubs lead the way, having won 25 more 1-run games than they have lost.
Here are the teams ranked by difference in wins and losses, from best to worst:
+25: Cubs
+20: Pirates
+17: Braves
+14: Braves
+ 9: Dodgers
+ 8: Nationals
+ 2: Cardinals
+ 2: Rockies
- 3: Padres
- 4: Giants
- 6: Phillies
- 7: Diamondbacks
- 8: Marlins
- 9: Mets
-50: Reds
The gap between the No. 14 Mets and No. 15 Reds is remarkable. The top 2 teams, the Cubs and Pirates, have fewer net 1-run wins, combined, than the Reds have 1-run losses!
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Now let's look at how many 1-run games each team won at home:
74: CUBS
69: Pirates
68: Cards
63: Dodgers
61: Brewers
61: Phillies
60: Giants
59: Mets
57: Braves
56: Diamondbacks
56: Nationals
54: Marlins
50: Padres
43: Rockies
39: Reds
The No. 1 Cubs have nearly double the number of 1-run wins at home as the No. 15 Reds.
The average is 58 wins, so the Cubs have won 16 more, or 27 percent.
If you subtract the Cubs' wins, the average for the 14 other teams is 97, so the Cubs have won 17 more, or 18 percent.
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Teams have played between 75 (Rockies) and 116 (Cardinals) 1-run games at home. The Cubs have played the second-most, 112, 1 more than the No. 3 Pirates.
The average is 98 games, so the Cubs have played 14 more, or 14 percent.
The average for the 14 other teams is 97, so the Cubs have played 15 more, or 15 percent.
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Here is the complete list, from best percentage to worst, for 1-run games at home, with the number of games in parentheses after the name of the team:
.661: CUBS (112)
.656: Dodgers (96)
.640: Braves (89)
.635: Brewers (96)
.622: Pirates (111)
.598: Phillies (102)
.589: Nationals (95)
.586: Cardinals (116)
.583: Giants (103)
.573: Mets (103)
.573: Rockies (75)
.563: Marlins (96)
.562: Padres (89)
.528: Diamondbacks (106)
.429: Reds (91)
Every team has won at least half its 1-run games at home except the Reds, who lag 100 percentage points below the No. 14 Diamondbacks -- and 232 points blow the No. 1 Cubs!
Only 5 teams have won at least 60 percent of their 1-run games at home, with a seventh just falling short.
The average is .588, so the Cubs are 73 percentage points higher. That is equal to the difference between the No. 2 Dodgers and the No. 9 Giants.
If you subtract the Cubs' record, the 14 other teams have an average of .549, so the Cubs are 112 points higher, more than the difference between the Cubs and the No. 14 Padres!
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In the difference between 1-run wins and losses at home, the Cubs are runaway leaders.
Here are the teams ranked by difference in wins and losses, from best to worst:
+36: CUBS
+27: Pirates
+26: Braves
+26: Brewers
+20: Cardinals
+20: Phillies
+17: Giants
+17: Nationals
+15: Mets
+12: Marlins
+11: Padres
+11: Rockies
+ 6: Diamondbacks
-13: Reds
As you can see, the Cubs have a 33 percent higher difference than any other team!
The 9-game difference between the Cubs and No. 2 Pirates is only 1 game less than the difference between the Pirates and the No. 7 Giants and Nationals.
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Next, let's look at how many 1-run games each team won on the road:
49: Giants
46: Nationals
45: Brewers
45: Padres
44: Diamondbacks
43: CUBS
42: Pirates
41: Rockies
39: Braves
39: Cards
38: Dodgers
36: Mets
33: Phillies
31: Marlins
31: Reds
The average is 40 wins, so the Cubs have 3 more the average.
The average of the 14 other teams also is 40, so the Cubs have 3 more.
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Teams have played between 82 (Marlins) and 119 (Giants) 1-run games on the road.
The Giants' number is by far the highest, with the Padres a distant second at 104. The Cubs have played the eighth-most, tied at 97 with the Dodgers, 1 ahead of the Cardinals and Mets.
The average number of games is 97, so the Cubs have played exactly the average number of 1-run games on the road!
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Here is the complete list, from best percentage to worst, for 1-run games on the road, with the number of games in parentheses after the name of the team:
.462: Pirates (91)
.455: Nationals (101)
.454: Brewers (99)
.451: Rockies (91)
.443: CUBS (97)
.438: Braves (89)
.435: Diamondbacks (101)
.433: Padres (104)
.412: Giants (119)
.406: Cardinals (96)
.392: Dodgers (97)
.378: Marlins (82)
.375: Mets (96)
.330: Phillies (100)
.313: Reds (99)
No team has won even half its 1-run games on the road, and only 4 teams have won 45 percent of those games, with the Cubs ranking fifth on the list.
Four teams failed to win even 40 percent of their games, with the Phillies and Reds far less successful than any other teams.
The league average is .412, so the Cubs are 31 percentage points higher than the league average.
The 14 other teams average .410, so the Cubs are 33 points higher.
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In the difference between 1-run wins and losses on the road, the Cubs are tied for sixth, but have only 4 more net losses than the No. 1 Pirates.
Here are the teams ranked by difference in wins and losses, from best to worst:
- 7: Pirates
- 9: Brewers
- 9: Nationals
- 9: Rockies
-10: Padres
-11: CUBS
-11: Braves
-13: Diamondbacks
-18: Cardinals
-19: Dodgers
-20: Marlins
-21: Giants
-24: Mets
-34: Phillies
-37: Reds
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The Cubs rank No. 1 in the difference between number of 1-run games played at home and played on the road.
The Cubs have played 112 at home and 97 on the road, a difference of +25.
The Cardinals and Pirates, both at +20, are the only other teams that have played at least 20 more 1-run games at home.
The Marlins, at +14, are the only other team with at least 10 more 1-run games at home.
Four teams have between +2 and +7.
The Braves have played the same number of games at home and on the road, while the Dodgers have played 1 more on the road; the Brewers, 3; and the Reds, 8.
The Giants and Rockies both have played 16 more on the road; the Padres, 15.
Here is the complete list of difference in games between 1-run games at home and on the road, from best to worst:
+25: CUBS
+20: Cardinals
+20: Pirates
+14: Marlins
+ 7: Mets
+ 5: Diamondbacks
+ 4: Nationals
+ 2: Phillies
0: Braves
- 1: Dodgers
- 3: Brewers
- 8: Reds
-15: Padres
-16: Giants
-16: Rockies
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Finally, it must be reported that the Cubs are near the bottom of the league in 1 category: difference between winning percentage in 1-run games at home and on the road.
With their league-best .661 percentage at home, but .443 on the road, there is a 218-point difference between those 2 percentages.
Only the Dodgers (264 points, .656 to .392) and Phillies (268 points, .598 to .330) have larger differences.
Those 3 and the Braves (202 points, .640 to .438) are the only teams with a difference of more than 200 points. The Mets barely missed (198 points, .573 to .375).
The most consistent team is the Diamondbacks, with a difference of just 93 points, .528 at home and .435 on the road.
The Reds are second best, at 116 points, with the Rockies third, at 122.
Here is the complete list of the difference between winning percentage in 1-run games at home and on the road, from least to most:
.093: Diamondbacks (.528-.435)
.116: Reds (.429-.313)
.122: Rockies (.573-.451)
.129: Padres (.562-.433)
.134: Nationals (.589-.455)
.160: Pirates (.622-.462)
.171: Giants (.583-.412)
.181: Brewers (.635-.454)
.182: Cardinals (.586-.406)
.185: Marlins (.563-.378)
.198: Mets (.573-.375)
.202: Braves (.640-.438)
.218: CUBS (.661-.443)
.264: Dodgers (.656-.392)
.268: Phillies (.598-.330)