The 2019 All Star Game by the numbers

Every now and again I have a little too much time on my hands and start playing around with Fangraphs. Last night I was ruminating over how unfair it was that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could hit 91 home runs and not win the Home Run Derby is an excellent example of this tendency. As a result I started playing around with some tables to compare the All Star rosters and decided these might be fun tools to share with the rest of BCB. So, with no further ado, here it is — your statistical guide to the Midsummer Classic.

Starting Lineups

Let’s start with the NL Starting lineup:

And the AL starting lineup:

The National League has a pretty sizeable WAR advantage in their starting lineup compared to the American League starting lineup. National League players have been worth 32.4 WAR so far in 2019 while American League starters have been worth about 21.9 WAR to date.

While some of this is attributable to injuries, the NL lineup has about 800 more plate appearances in 2019 than their AL counterparts, part of it is just which players won their elections. I ranked all qualified players by WAR, added in any non-qualified players who made the All Star team and then looked at how the players in the starting lineups ranked according to WAR. Admittedly this is imperfect, but it gives you a good glimpse at the overall strength of the starting lineups. The AL starting lineup includes the following players by WAR-Rank: 1, 2, 7, 10, 11, 13, 15, 30, 31. The NL starting lineup includes the following players by WAR-Rank: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 10, 14, 16, 22.

Advantage: NL, but beyond the starting lineups how do these two teams compare?

Pitcher comparisons

Pitcher comparisons are a little more difficult to do since they include starters, middle relievers and closers. However, I still wanted to see how these rotations compared. So I ran a list of the starting pitchers by league and sorted it by WAR. Then I added back in the relievers named to the All-Star Game where they would fit in the starter WAR rank. It’s not perfect, but it does give you an idea of the strengths of the rotations. I also kept stats like GB and HR percentage so you can get an idea of each lineups strengths and weaknesses.

First up the AL:

And the NL:

Here again the NL has a WAR advantage, but it is a much slighter one at 27 to 24.9 total WAR. Additionally, the AL has more specialty relief arms than the NL, so I think that advantage is probably non-existent. Interestingly, both teams are missing some power arms from their rotations who are at the top of their respective divisions. Don’t get me wrong, these rotations are great, but it’s notable that neither of the top pitcher by WAR will pitch in the All-Star Game. Max Scherzer was replaced due to a back issue and Lance Lynn did not make the team at all.

Advantage: Slight advantage to the AL. While the NL has a WAR advantage, the AL is bringing a lot of elite stopper arms to the game.

Bench comparisons

Finally, let’s take a look at the benches for each team. First up, the AL:

Next up the NL:

The National League advantage here is smaller, but still noticeable. They have an advantage in just about every offensive category that does not appear to be solely attributable to a slight plate appearance advantage. Each team has a few players who are in the top five in WAR on their bench (Kris Bryant, Xander Bogaerts) and each team has a couple of players who are question marks.

Advantage: NL, but it’s a lot smaller advantage than they have with their starting lineup.

Takeaways

On paper and by the numbers the NL looks to have an advantage offensively tonight while the AL has a slight edge with their pitchers. Of course as we all know baseball will baseball, so regardless of the numbers this year’s Midsummer Classic is probably anyone’s game.