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2019 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Games 1-130

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Cumulative standings and team statistics through 130 games

MLB: San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

We last looked in on the big picture for the 2019 Cubs 12 games ago. At that time, I told you that we’d be looking back at these standings and statistics after these 12 games. I also said that the stretch of 12 games was going to be tough. I noted the Phillies had their backs to the wall, as did the Giants and the Nationals were red hot, taking control of the wildcard race and trying to chase down the Braves for a division title. I said that none of the 12 games would be any kind of sure thing and that seven wins would be a decent outcome.

One or two of you weighed in to say that I was actually being pessimistic. As it turns out, I was being optimistic. The Cubs won just five of the 12 games, despite a series sweep against the Giants. There were a few games that the Cubs bullpen coughed up during the stretch that probably could have been wins. But, just the same there were certainly games they won that could have gone the other way too.

This team didn’t play great over these 12 games and get robbed. They weren’t very good and were at times completely overmatched. Once again, this team seems to be fading at the wrong time. For the first time, it isn’t hard to imagine the scenario that this ballclub won’t be a playoff team.

This is all more than a little depressing.

Fangraphs has the Cubs at 66.1% to make the playoffs (down from 85.8% during last update). Fangraphs has the Cubs at 41.7% to win the division (down from 72%). They estimate the Cubs at 4.5% chance of winning it all (down from 7.3%). That’s not an insignificant drop in odds at this time of year. But, it still recognizes that the Cubs are still very likely to reach the playoffs.

Just not a lot of exciting news at this point. Let’s check in on the cumulative standings for Heroes and Goats.

Cumulative Standings:

Year to Date Total (change since last full standings)

(# = returned to minors, * = injured list, @ = restricted list, ! = out of the organization)

  • Anthony Rizzo 34 (+12)
  • Kris Bryant 29.75 (+2)
  • Kyle Hendricks 16 (+5)
  • Nicholas Castellanos 10 (+5)
  • Ian Happ 6.5 (-4)
  • Rowan Wick 6.5 (+1)
  • Cole Hamels 5 (-3)
  • *Willson Contreras 5 (0)
  • Javier Baez 4.5 (-10)
  • Kyle Schwarber 4.25 (+2)
  • *Daniel Descalso 4 (0)
  • Jonathan Lucroy 3 (+3)
  • @Ben Zobrist 2.5 (0)
  • Kyle Ryan 1 (0)
  • *Xavier Cedeno 1 (0)
  • Tyler Chatwood .5 (-1)/3 (0) hitting
  • Brandon Kintzler .5 (-3)
  • #Dillon Maples .5 (0)
  • #Randy Rosario .5 (0)
  • David Bote .5 (+1)
  • #Duane Underwood Jr. .25 (0)
  • @Tony Barnette 0 (0)
  • #Taylor Davis -.5 (0)
  • Craig Kimbrel -1 (+1)
  • #Mark Zagunis -1.5 (-.5)
  • #Alec Mills -2 (0)
  • Addison Russell -2 (0)
  • *Allen Webster -2 (0)
  • Jose Quintana -3 (+1)
  • #Adbert Alzolay -3 (0)
  • !Carlos Gonzalez -3 (0)
  • !Martin Maldonado -3 (0)
  • *Derek Holland -3.75 (-4)
  • Tony Kemp -4 (-3)
  • Victor Caratini -4.5 (+1)
  • David Phelps -5 (-3)
  • Steve Cishek -5.5 (+1.5)
  • !Mike Montgomery -7 (0)
  • #Robel Garcia -7 (0)
  • !Brad Brach -7.5 (0)/-1 (0) hitting
  • Jon Lester -8.5 (-3)
  • Yu Darvish -10 (0)
  • Jason Heyward -10 (+2)
  • #Albert Almora Jr. -11.5 (0)
  • !Carl Edwards Jr. -12 (0)
  • Pedro Strop -20.5 (-3)

46 different players have appeared at least once in Heroes and Goats this season. That compares to 49 different players who have appeared for the Cubs this year. The three that have not appeared? Tim Collins, Jim Adduci and James Norwood. Jonathan Lucroy made his first appearance in this period.

At the top of the charts is Anthony Rizzo who has lived at the top of these charts throughout the history of this series. Kris Bryant didn’t fade to lose his spot, rather Rizzo just knocked down the door. Kyle Hendricks sits in third place, holding back a couple of guys who have only been with the team since the start of this month in Nick Castellanos and Ian Happ. Rizzo had the largest positive move since our last update (+12), Hendricks and Castellanos tied for second at (+5) each.

Pedro Strop continues to bring up the rear in the standings. In front of him are departed Cub Carl Edwards Jr. and demoted Cub Albert Almora Jr. It’s looking increasingly like Pedro is going to finish last this year. Javier Baez had the largest negative move (-10). Ian Happ and Derek Holland are next at (-4) each.

Team Statistics:

Offensive Statistics:

  • Average: .251 was .255 (8th NL, 14th MLB, MLB average .251)
  • On Base: .330 was .334 (5th NL, 10th MLB, MLB average .323)
  • Slugging: .447 was .453 (5th NL, 9th MLB, MLB average .437)
  • OPS: .778 was .787 (5th NL, 9th MLB, MLB average .760)
  • Runs/game: 4.91 was 5.01 (6th NL, 14th MLB, MLB average 4.85)

The offense dipped off in every single category. These aren’t .001 drops either. There was some significant drop off and given how far into the season this happened, this took a prolonged offensive drought. Were it not for the 12 runs scored on August 21, these numbers would have been even worse. Every one of these numbers stands at the lowest to date.

Pitching Statistics:

  • Hits/9: 8.5, was 8.5 (5th NL, 9th MLB, MLB average 8.8)
  • Walks/9: 3.2, was 3.2 (7th NL, 14th MLB, MLB average 3.3)
  • HR/9: 1.3, was 1.3 (6th NL, 10th MLB, MLB average 1.4)
  • K/9: 8.8, was 8.8 (8th NL, 14th MLB, MLB average 8.8)
  • Runs allowed/game: 4.44, was 4.36 (4th NL, 8th MLB, MLB average 4.85)
  • Quality Start %: 46, was 45 (5th NL, 8th MLB, MLB average 38%)
  • Average Game Score: 52, was 52 (5th NL, 9th MLB, MLB average 50)
  • Save %: 59, was 59 (10th NL. 20th MLB, MLB average 63%)
  • Inherited Runner Score %: 34, was 31 (7th NL, 13th MLB, MLB average 32%)

By and large, these numbers stayed the same. Oddly, despite almost all of the stats remaining the same, the Cubs allowed more runs. There is likely some bad luck in there. Cubs starters nudged up in quality starts. The bullpen took a healthy step forward on inherited runners, while staying the same on saves. While the offense is dropping towards average, the pitching staff continues to be generally a top third staff.

Team Defense:

  • Errors: 104, was 79 (12th NL, 23rd MLB, MLB Average 92)
  • Defensive Efficiency [percentage of balls in play turned into outs]: .687, was .689 (7th NL, 13th MLB, MLM average .687)

The defense is somewhere between a bottom half and bottom third. While I think positional versatility is something that must happen in the modern game with short benches, it’s hard not to see the moving around as some part of the problem.

Up Next: With 32 games remaining, it is go time. It was probably go time a while ago actually, but the Cubs certainly haven’t “gone” in quite some time. If things don’t get ironed out soon, the team is running out of runway. Hopefully, the Cubs can get a couple of their stars healthy and playing stat. Later this week, they should start seeing players return from Iowa as the season there winds down and the roster is able to expand.

The Cubs play 17 of the final 32 on the road, starting with three Tuesday through Thursday in New York to play the Mets. The Cubs have just two off days remaining in the season. Those will be our final two check points. This next stretch is a short one, just eight games. Three in New York, three home against the Brewers and two against the Mariners. The Mets and Brewers are the two teams chasing the Cubs for the final wild card spot. So, look forward to six more days of playoff atmosphere.

This is a key stretch. After this eight-game stretch, the Cubs have another off day. Then they play on 18 consecutive days, starting with an eight-game two-city trip before coming home for the final 10 home games of the season.

Poll

How many games will the Cubs win over the next 8?

This poll is closed

  • 9%
    7+
    (5 votes)
  • 36%
    5 or 6
    (20 votes)
  • 47%
    3 or 4
    (26 votes)
  • 7%
    2 or less
    (4 votes)
55 votes total Vote Now