Cubs trade target: German Márquez

“Current Rockies pitcher” isn’t usually the best description of a starter who contending teams would be wanting to acquire.

But German Márquez just might be the guy the Cubs could use to round out the current starting rotation.

He’s spent six years pitching for the Rockies and as you might expect, his numbers are far better away from Coors Field:

Home: 61 games (60 starts), 4.85 ERA, 1.400 WHIP in 348⅔ innings
Road: 64 games (62 starts), 3.61 ERA, 1.125 WHIP in 360 innings

Sure looks like a Coors Field Effect there to me. In 2021, though, he’s been somewhat better at home (3.56 ERA in 10 starts) than on the road (4.67 ERA in six starts). His road ERA is skewed by one horrific start in Cincinnati, though it should be noted he had one even worse at home against the Giants.

Baseball-reference.com has a neat tool where you can take a player and “neutralize” his stats for any run-scoring environment. I did this using “2021 Wrigley Field” as the run-scoring environment and the results are promising — a Márquez who had pitched his whole career at Wrigley (it includes a full-year projection for 2021) would have posted a 3.09 ERA, more than a run lower than his actual 4.21 career ERA.

The Rockies aren’t going anywhere this year, and they’re likely trading Trevor Story at the deadline, so they probably aren’t going anywhere for the next couple of years, either. Why not try to make a deal for Márquez?

To get a 26-year-old pitcher who could be this good, a top prospect or two might have to be sent to Colorado. I would think the Cubs’ Márquez, Brailyn, would have to headline this deal, perhaps along with someone like Cole Roederer or Nelson Velazquez, and maybe another pitcher — someone who might be able to step into the Rockies’ rotation like Cory Abbott.

Would you do this? I would.