June 2021 wasn’t a great month of Cubs baseball

One of the defining aspects of a baseball season is how long it is (at least in normal circumstances). A lot can happen over the course of 162 games. There will be good stretches and bad ones, the unexpected will happen when you least expect it. It is not a sports season designed for fickle fans.

Which is all a useful frame for how to interpret the last two weeks of Chicago Cubs baseball, which have been bad by any standard. The Cubs were similarly bad to start April, before rallying to look like one of the best teams in baseball in May. It’s a funny sport.

A June Swoon for the ages

The Cubs have been around since 1876. That is 145-plus seasons worth of data, including some very bad baseball teams. The 2021 Chicago Cubs now hold the distinction as the worst hitting team by batting average over any 28-game stretch in the history of the franchise. In fact, they hold nine of the top 10 worst such streaks, since this period of offensive futility predates June. Below are the infamous ten such streaks:

So if you’ve been watching from home and feel like the Cubs just couldn’t buy a hit, let alone a hit when it matters, well, you were right. However there are three silver linings in this data.

First, this Cubs team has a lot of three-true-outcome players and their two best contact bats (Nico Hoerner and Matt Duffy) spent the month on the injured list. We saw what this team was capable of when both those hitters get regular plate appearances in May. Hoerner is in the middle of a rehab stint in Iowa and could join the team as soon as Friday in Cincinnati. Duffy was recently moved to the 60-day IL but he’s been on the IL for a while now so that just means he’s not eligible to return until July 22, and that isn’t far off his original return date projection. If the sluggers in the lineup can hold on until the contact bats return this team could be poised to make a run in the second half.

Second, batting average might be an indicator of a team struggling to hit, but we also know it’s not the best measure of a team’s offense. This Cubs team isn’t close to the worst Cubs teams of all time in terms of a much better measure, OPS. The team still generates plenty of runs, they are just doing so in a way that isn’t particularly reliable at the moment.

Finally, there is one other recent Cubs team in the bottom 25 by batting average by this 28-game streak metric: The 2017 Cubs who won the NL Central after struggling with a .209 batting average from May 5 to June 5. That team went 13-15 during that 28-game stretch, not unlike the 12-16 record the 2021 Cubs have put up over the last 28 games. If the team can get healthy, they can absolutely do some damage at the plate.

Starting pitching

The 2017 Cubs, though, had one asset that the 2021 club does not: a relatively set starting rotation. Aside from several questionable performances from Brett Anderson, the Cubs top four were reliable. Let’s compare starter performances up to July 1 in 2017 and 2021. First up, 2017:

One of these rotations is not like the other. While it makes sense that innings pitched are down coming off the pandemic shortened season, and the bullpen has been fantastic offsetting much of the damage of those short starts, no one would draw up getting 40+ fewer innings from your starting rotation as a key to success. The Cubs will need to bolster their rotation going forward if they want to contend in the NL Central.

Takeaways

The last 16 games have left a lot to be desired and the 4-12 stretch has been magnified by the surging Brewers going 10-6 at the same time. The three-game sweep served to amplify that difference in a division that really was quite close less than a week ago. The Cubs still have time to right the ship before the trade deadline. It looks like offensive help should be healthy soon enough, but the starting rotation is another matter.