A closer look at the 2022 Cubs offensive production by position

One of the most talked about elements of Jed Hoyer’s press conference earlier this week was the future of the Cubs roster. He spoke glowingly of Ian Happ and talked about the team interest in extending Nico Hoerner. He noted that the team would extend a qualifying offer to Willson Contreras. Follow-up conversations with Hoyer and Ricketts have indicated the Cubs will spend this offseason in free agency — intelligently, of course.

So today I wanted to take a closer look at where the Cubs were situated relative to other teams in 2022. I also will look at the individual Cubs position players contributions during the 2022 season to get an idea of where the Cubs could add, and where they stand to lose contributions.

The Cubs were not great

I think anyone who watched the Cubs this season knows that the offense has some room for improvement, however, the table below comparing all MLB teams by total position player fWAR gives you an idea of how far the team has to go to compete with some of the more successful rosters in the league:

The Cubs were tied for 19th in total Wins Above Replacement among position players with 15.6 total fWAR during the 2022 season. For comparison’s sake, the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals (yes, really) and New York Mets all got more than double that value from their position players over the course of the season. That is a large gap to fill on the free agent market to get back to contention.

Of the top 10 teams on this list, nine made the playoffs (the lone team who did not is the Brewers, who were in contention up to the last week). The Cubs are in a group of quasi-respectable, but let’s be real, there is a long way to go, underperformers that includes the San Francisco Giants, the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago White Sox.

But rosters are not static and the Cubs can’t just count on 15.6 fWAR returning. Additionally, players come and go — some players with negative fWAR have left, some with positive contributions will be hitting free agency. So let’s take a look at the individual WAR from players who had at least 10 plate appearances over the course of the season to see what the Cubs have returning offensively for 2023:

Obviously a handful of these players have already been designated for assignment, with some finding other teams and some on the open market looking for their next opportunity. Willson Contreras is a free agent, and all signs point to him testing that market, so we also need to remove his contributions from the team in 2022 — that’s pretty significant, since he made up more than 20 percent of the total fWAR on the Cubs in 2022. Here’s what you get in terms of returning players for 2022:

The Cubs gain 2.3 fWAR from players who were negative in 2022, however they lose 3.3 fWAR from Willson Contreras, which puts them at 14.9 total fWAR returning. Now, obviously some players might take a step forward, or a step back, but as currently constructed the Cubs would need to add approximately 20 fWAR in free agent contracts just from position players to approach the level of fWAR the top teams in the playoffs had in 2022. They’d need to add at least ten fWAR to get into the top ten teams and put themselves in playoff contention.

One key note: The Cubs will feel the loss of a bat-first catcher in ways other teams would not, because they have had one of the best catchers in baseball on their roster for seven seasons now. Imagine you’re a runner and your pace for a marathon is 11 minute/mile. On the day of the race you run 10:30 minute/mile — that is a success for you and an amazing accomplishment. However, if you’ve been running an eight minute/mile pace throughout training, that 10:30 minute/mile will feel like a crushing disaster on race day. When the vast majority of the teams in baseball employ a glove-first catcher, they don’t notice the minor drop-off because they weren’t getting that much offense from the position. The Cubs will need to make up that difference, with other positional players, because there are not really free agents on the market who can produce at Contreras’ level.

Even outside the catcher situation, adding 10-15 fWAR in an offseason among position players alone is a tall order. I am obviously happy to hear the Cubs plan to spend, I’m just think it’s worth being cautious about their ability to close these gaps in one offseason, even with players like Brennen Davis (hopefully) waiting in the wings with a few wins above replacement.

I’ll take a closer look at pitching needs later this offseason.