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A closer look at the 2022 Cubs offensive production by position

... and how it compares to the rest of the league

Milwaukee Brewers v Chicago Cubs
Willson Contreras celebrates his walk-off victory against the Brewers on August 20.
Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

One of the most talked about elements of Jed Hoyer’s press conference earlier this week was the future of the Cubs roster. He spoke glowingly of Ian Happ and talked about the team interest in extending Nico Hoerner. He noted that the team would extend a qualifying offer to Willson Contreras. Follow-up conversations with Hoyer and Ricketts have indicated the Cubs will spend this offseason in free agency — intelligently, of course.

So today I wanted to take a closer look at where the Cubs were situated relative to other teams in 2022. I also will look at the individual Cubs position players contributions during the 2022 season to get an idea of where the Cubs could add, and where they stand to lose contributions.

The Cubs were not great

I think anyone who watched the Cubs this season knows that the offense has some room for improvement, however, the table below comparing all MLB teams by total position player fWAR gives you an idea of how far the team has to go to compete with some of the more successful rosters in the league:

MLB Teams by fWAR in 2022

Team PA HR R RBI BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR
Team PA HR R RBI BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR
LAD 6247 212 847 812 9.7% 22.0% .185 .302 .257 .333 .442 .337 119 38.9
NYY 6172 254 807 764 10.1% 22.5% .185 .276 .241 .325 .426 .327 115 35.1
STL 6165 197 772 739 8.7% 19.9% .168 .289 .252 .325 .420 .326 114 32.8
NYM 6176 171 772 735 8.3% 19.7% .153 .302 .259 .332 .412 .326 116 31.3
TOR 6158 200 775 756 8.1% 20.2% .168 .305 .264 .329 .431 .331 117 31.1
HOU 6054 214 737 715 8.7% 19.5% .176 .278 .248 .319 .424 .324 112 29.6
ATL 6082 243 789 753 7.7% 24.6% .190 .303 .253 .317 .443 .330 111 28.8
MIL 6122 219 725 703 9.4% 23.9% .174 .279 .235 .315 .409 .317 103 24.3
SEA 6117 197 690 664 9.7% 22.8% .160 .272 .230 .315 .390 .311 107 23.0
CLE 6163 127 698 662 7.3% 18.2% .129 .294 .254 .316 .383 .306 99 21.8
PHI 6077 205 747 719 7.9% 22.4% .169 .299 .253 .317 .422 .322 106 21.6
SDP 6175 153 705 682 9.3% 21.5% .141 .289 .241 .318 .382 .308 102 21.5
MIN 6113 178 696 668 8.5% 22.1% .153 .295 .248 .317 .401 .315 107 21.1
TBR 6008 139 666 634 8.3% 23.2% .138 .295 .239 .309 .377 .302 101 19.9
ARI 6027 173 702 658 8.8% 22.2% .155 .272 .230 .304 .385 .303 92 19.8
BAL 6049 171 674 639 7.9% 23.0% .154 .284 .236 .305 .390 .305 99 18.9
TEX 6029 198 707 670 7.6% 24.0% .157 .287 .239 .301 .395 .305 98 18.9
BOS 6144 155 735 704 7.8% 22.3% .152 .313 .258 .321 .409 .319 102 17.9
SFG 6117 183 716 683 9.3% 23.9% .156 .284 .234 .315 .390 .311 101 15.6
CHC 6072 159 657 620 8.3% 23.8% .148 .294 .238 .311 .387 .307 97 15.6
CHW 6123 149 686 654 6.3% 20.7% .131 .304 .256 .310 .387 .306 99 15.3
LAA 5977 190 623 600 7.5% 25.7% .157 .289 .233 .297 .390 .300 93 11.9
KCR 6010 138 640 613 7.7% 21.4% .136 .293 .244 .306 .380 .302 93 10.7
MIA 5949 144 586 554 7.3% 24.0% .133 .284 .230 .294 .363 .290 88 10.6
COL 6105 149 698 669 7.4% 21.8% .144 .307 .254 .315 .398 .312 86 6.8
OAK 5863 137 568 537 7.4% 23.7% .130 .264 .216 .281 .346 .277 84 6.8
PIT 5912 158 591 555 8.0% 25.3% .141 .277 .222 .291 .364 .289 84 6.7
WSN 5998 136 603 579 7.4% 20.4% .129 .295 .249 .310 .377 .303 93 6.1
CIN 5978 156 648 618 7.6% 23.9% .137 .290 .235 .304 .372 .299 84 5.1
DET 5870 110 557 530 6.5% 24.1% .115 .290 .231 .286 .346 .279 81 2.5
FanGraphs

The Cubs were tied for 19th in total Wins Above Replacement among position players with 15.6 total fWAR during the 2022 season. For comparison’s sake, the Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals (yes, really) and New York Mets all got more than double that value from their position players over the course of the season. That is a large gap to fill on the free agent market to get back to contention.

Of the top 10 teams on this list, nine made the playoffs (the lone team who did not is the Brewers, who were in contention up to the last week). The Cubs are in a group of quasi-respectable, but let’s be real, there is a long way to go, underperformers that includes the San Francisco Giants, the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago White Sox.

But rosters are not static and the Cubs can’t just count on 15.6 fWAR returning. Additionally, players come and go — some players with negative fWAR have left, some with positive contributions will be hitting free agency. So let’s take a look at the individual WAR from players who had at least 10 plate appearances over the course of the season to see what the Cubs have returning offensively for 2023:

Cubs fWAR by player

Name PA HR R RBI BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR
Name PA HR R RBI BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR
Nico Hoerner 517 10 60 55 5.4% 11.0% .129 .300 .281 .327 .410 .320 106 4.0
Ian Happ 641 17 72 72 9.0% 23.2% .169 .336 .271 .342 .440 .339 120 3.5
Willson Contreras 487 22 65 55 9.2% 21.1% .224 .270 .243 .349 .466 .357 132 3.3
Seiya Suzuki 446 14 54 46 9.4% 24.7% .171 .326 .262 .336 .433 .334 116 2.0
Christopher Morel 425 16 55 47 8.9% 32.2% .198 .320 .235 .308 .433 .322 108 1.6
Patrick Wisdom 534 25 67 66 9.9% 34.3% .220 .274 .207 .298 .426 .316 104 1.1
Zach McKinstry 171 4 17 12 7.6% 28.1% .155 .272 .206 .272 .361 .279 78 0.9
Rafael Ortega 371 7 35 35 11.9% 19.9% .117 .285 .241 .331 .358 .305 96 0.7
Yan Gomes 293 8 23 31 2.7% 16.0% .130 .252 .235 .260 .365 .271 73 0.6
David Bote 127 4 15 12 4.7% 35.4% .172 .382 .259 .315 .431 .325 110 0.5
Esteban Quiroz 47 0 3 3 8.5% 19.1% .000 .355 .275 .370 .275 .303 95 0.2
Nick Madrigal 228 0 19 7 6.1% 11.8% .033 .286 .249 .305 .282 .267 70 0.2
Jared Young 22 0 2 0 13.6% 31.8% .105 .417 .263 .364 .368 .329 113 0.1
P.J. Higgins 229 6 23 30 9.6% 25.3% .154 .290 .229 .310 .383 .306 97 0.1
Nelson Velazquez 206 6 20 26 9.2% 31.6% .168 .281 .205 .286 .373 .291 87 0.1
Ildemaro Vargas 26 1 4 4 11.5% 7.7% .217 .100 .130 .231 .348 .255 62 0.0
Clint Frazier 45 0 4 1 15.6% 24.4% .081 .308 .216 .356 .297 .305 97 -0.1
Alfonso Rivas 287 3 27 25 10.1% 30.3% .072 .344 .235 .322 .307 .285 82 -0.1
Franmil Reyes 193 5 19 19 8.3% 27.5% .154 .305 .234 .301 .389 .302 94 -0.2
Andrelton Simmons 85 0 8 7 8.2% 15.3% .013 .210 .173 .244 .187 .204 27 -0.3
Jason Heyward 151 1 15 10 7.3% 21.2% .073 .260 .204 .278 .277 .253 61 -0.4
Michael Hermosillo 73 0 7 4 9.6% 37.0% .033 .206 .115 .250 .148 .203 27 -0.4
Frank Schwindel 292 8 23 36 6.5% 19.9% .129 .261 .229 .277 .358 .278 78 -0.7
Jonathan Villar 166 2 19 15 6.6% 25.3% .105 .288 .222 .271 .327 .263 68 -0.8
FanGraphs — at least 10 plate appearances

Obviously a handful of these players have already been designated for assignment, with some finding other teams and some on the open market looking for their next opportunity. Willson Contreras is a free agent, and all signs point to him testing that market, so we also need to remove his contributions from the team in 2022 — that’s pretty significant, since he made up more than 20 percent of the total fWAR on the Cubs in 2022. Here’s what you get in terms of returning players for 2022:

Cubs returning players fWAR in 2022

Name PA HR R RBI BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR 2023 Status
Name PA HR R RBI BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ WAR 2023 Status
Nico Hoerner 517 10 60 55 5.4% 11.0% .129 .300 .281 .327 .410 .320 106 4.0 Pre-Arbitration
Ian Happ 641 17 72 72 9.0% 23.2% .169 .336 .271 .342 .440 .339 120 3.5 Arbitration
Seiya Suzuki 446 14 54 46 9.4% 24.7% .171 .326 .262 .336 .433 .334 116 2.0 Under Contract
Christopher Morel 425 16 55 47 8.9% 32.2% .198 .320 .235 .308 .433 .322 108 1.6 Pre-Arbitration
Patrick Wisdom 534 25 67 66 9.9% 34.3% .220 .274 .207 .298 .426 .316 104 1.1 Pre-Arbitration
Zach McKinstry 171 4 17 12 7.6% 28.1% .155 .272 .206 .272 .361 .279 78 0.9 Pre-Arbitration
Rafael Ortega 371 7 35 35 11.9% 19.9% .117 .285 .241 .331 .358 .305 96 0.7 Pre-Arbitration
Yan Gomes 293 8 23 31 2.7% 16.0% .130 .252 .235 .260 .365 .271 73 0.6 Under Contract
David Bote 127 4 15 12 4.7% 35.4% .172 .382 .259 .315 .431 .325 110 0.5 Under Contract
Esteban Quiroz 47 0 3 3 8.5% 19.1% .000 .355 .275 .370 .275 .303 95 0.2 Pre-Arbitration
Nick Madrigal 228 0 19 7 6.1% 11.8% .033 .286 .249 .305 .282 .267 70 0.2 Pre-Arbitration
Jared Young 22 0 2 0 13.6% 31.8% .105 .417 .263 .364 .368 .329 113 0.1 Pre-Arbitration
P.J. Higgins 229 6 23 30 9.6% 25.3% .154 .290 .229 .310 .383 .306 97 0.1 Pre-Arbitration
Nelson Velazquez 206 6 20 26 9.2% 31.6% .168 .281 .205 .286 .373 .291 87 0.1 Pre-Arbitration
Alfonso Rivas 287 3 27 25 10.1% 30.3% .072 .344 .235 .322 .307 .285 82 -0.1 Pre-Arbitration
Franmil Reyes 193 5 19 19 8.3% 27.5% .154 .305 .234 .301 .389 .302 94 -0.2 Arbitration
Michael Hermosillo 73 0 7 4 9.6% 37.0% .033 .206 .115 .250 .148 .203 27 -0.4 Pre-Arbitration
fWAR Total 14.9
FanGraphs

The Cubs gain 2.3 fWAR from players who were negative in 2022, however they lose 3.3 fWAR from Willson Contreras, which puts them at 14.9 total fWAR returning. Now, obviously some players might take a step forward, or a step back, but as currently constructed the Cubs would need to add approximately 20 fWAR in free agent contracts just from position players to approach the level of fWAR the top teams in the playoffs had in 2022. They’d need to add at least ten fWAR to get into the top ten teams and put themselves in playoff contention.

One key note: The Cubs will feel the loss of a bat-first catcher in ways other teams would not, because they have had one of the best catchers in baseball on their roster for seven seasons now. Imagine you’re a runner and your pace for a marathon is 11 minute/mile. On the day of the race you run 10:30 minute/mile — that is a success for you and an amazing accomplishment. However, if you’ve been running an eight minute/mile pace throughout training, that 10:30 minute/mile will feel like a crushing disaster on race day. When the vast majority of the teams in baseball employ a glove-first catcher, they don’t notice the minor drop-off because they weren’t getting that much offense from the position. The Cubs will need to make up that difference, with other positional players, because there are not really free agents on the market who can produce at Contreras’ level.

Even outside the catcher situation, adding 10-15 fWAR in an offseason among position players alone is a tall order. I am obviously happy to hear the Cubs plan to spend, I’m just think it’s worth being cautious about their ability to close these gaps in one offseason, even with players like Brennen Davis (hopefully) waiting in the wings with a few wins above replacement.

I’ll take a closer look at pitching needs later this offseason.