FanPost

All-time homers vs. steals, updated

Just before the start of the 2019 Major League season, I wrote about an historic home run that would be hit in the not-too-distant future.

That homer would mark the first time in the history of MLB that there had been more total homer runs than stolen bases in regular-season games.

That struck me as remarkable, because at one point there had been almost ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND more steals than home runs: 99,921, to be exact, from the start of 1876 through the end of 1928.

.........

ANOTHER HISTORIC 8/8

On Aug. 8, 2020, teams hit 42 homers and stole 11 bases.

That made the all-time count:

Home runs: 308,055

Stolen bases: 308,053

By the end of that season, there were 1,093 more homers:

Home runs: 309,854

Stolen bases: 308,761.

..........

OVERDUE RECOGNITION

But in the summer of 2021, with great fanfare, baseball-reference.com declared that, "Negro Leagues Are Major Leagues."

It then incorporated data from the 7 leagues comprised of Black players that had existed between 1920 and the late 1940s.

Three of the 7 leagues lasted just 1 season.

A fourth, the Eastern Colored League, made it through 3.

The first Negro National League survived for 12 seasons, 1920-31, as did the Negro American League, 1937-48.

The longest-lived of the 7 was the second Negro National League: 16 seasons, 1933-48.

...

That is a total of 56 seasons, during which players in the leagues combined to hit 6,346 home runs and steal 12,644 bases.

With those included in the count for all leagues, at the end of 2021, steals were back in front, by 1,607:

Stolen bases: 323,804

Home runs: 322,197

..........

2 HOMERS PER STEAL

Teams have combined for more home runs than stolen bases in all but 10 seasons since 1929, including every season since 1993.

This year, through July 7, they had more than twice as many homers (2,682) as steals (1,120) -- 1,524 more home runs.

As a result, the all-time count of each stood at:

Stolen bases: 324,924

Home runs: 324,879

That's a difference of just 45.

...

The next day, the difference was reduced by more than half, to 21, as teams hit 24 more homers than they stole bases, 39-15.

The following day, they hit 25 homers and stole just 7 bases, reducing the all-time difference to just 3.

..........

HOMERS REIGN SUPREME

And on Sunday, July 10, teams stole 16 bases, but they hit a whopping 42 homers.

The Cubs contributed 3 of the homers: a grand slam by P.J. Higgins, a 3-run blast by David Bote and a solo shot by Nelson Velazquez.

They had 1 of the steals, by Bote.

They lost to the Dodgers, 8-10 -- the fourth of what would be 9 consecutive defeats.

...

At the end of that day, the totals for the season were:

Home runs: 2,788

Stolen bases: 1,158

And that made the all-time count:

Home runs: 324,985

Stolen bases: 324,962

Once again, home runs outnumbered steals -- likely once and for all.

..........

WIDENING GAP

When the 2022 season ended, there had been 5,215 home runs and 2,487 stolen bases, increasing the totals to:

Home runs: 327,412

Stolen bases: 326,291

That's already a difference of 1,121.

...

Rules changes that will take effect new steal, including bigger bases, are expected to increase the number of steals, which has averaged 2,498 in the past 9 full seasons.

But it would have to rise by 31 percent just to reach the 3,279 total in 2011.

And there have been at least 3,306 home runs every year since 1993 -- and that number was in the strike-shortened 1994 season.

In the past 10 full seasons, the average was 4,924 homers, with a low of 4,186, in 2014, and a high of 6,776, in 2019.

..........

MANY FEWER HOMERS

The 2022 total of 5,215 was down dramatically from the previous year's 5,944.

That is 729 fewer homers, the second-biggest drop from one full season to the next. Homers plummeted by a whopping 1,278 in 1988, to 3,306 from 4,458.

Other season-to-season declines of at least 500 homers:

688: 1978 (2,956, from 3,644)

652: 1931 (1,134, from 1,786)

566: 1971 (2,863, from 3,429)

520: 2018 (5,585, from 6,105)

The next-biggest drop was 475, in 2014.

In the 103 seasons of the Live Ball Era, the number of home runs has fallen in 47 seasons and risen in 76.

...

The biggest increase from one full season to the next was 1,409, in 1977, to 3,644, from 2,235.

Homers rose by 1,191 in 2019 (6,676, from 5,585) and by 1,124 in 1969 (3,119, from 1,995).

There were 992 more in 1993 (4,030, from 3,038) and at least 500 more in 8 other seasons, including exactly 500 in 1925 (1,736, from 1,236).

There were 495 in 2017 (6,105, from 5,610).

..........

ROLLERCOASTER

Excluding 2020, and comparing 2021 to 2019, this has been the peculiar season-by-season rise and fall in home runs starting in 2000:

2000: +165

2001: -235

2002: -399

2003: +148

2004: +244

2005: -434

2006: +369

2007: -429

2008: -79

2009: +164

...

2010: -429

2011: -61

2012: +382

2013: -273

2014: -475

2015: +723

2016: +701

2017: +495

2018: -520

2019: +1,191

2021: -832

2022: -729

...

The number rose in 10 seasons, by an average of 458.

It fell in 12 seasons, by an average of 378.

Only once did it rise in 3 consecutive seasons, 2015-17, and only 1 other time did it rise in back-to-back seasons, 2003-04.

It fell in back-to-back seasons 5 times: 2001-02, 2007-08, 2010-11, 2013-14 and 2021-22.

...

Will the number rise again in 2023, or fall for a third straight year?

We won't start to find out until March 30, when the Cubs host the Brewers on Opening Day.

No matter how many homers are hit, there will be more than there will be steals.

Some day in the far future, there may even be 99,922 more homers, surpassing the 99,921 more steals at the end of 1928.

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