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A closer look at the 2022 Cubs pitching production

...and how it compares to the rest of the league

By Sara Sanchez
Justin Steele had a breakthrough year in 2022, the Cubs will look for him to repeat that in 2023.
Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

During the playoffs I took a look at how Cubs position player value compared to the rest of the league in 2022 to get an idea of how close they were to competing in 2023. The results, well, weren’t great. From that earlier piece:

The Cubs gain 2.3 fWAR from players who were negative in 2022, however they lose 3.3 fWAR from Willson Contreras, which puts them at 14.9 total fWAR returning. Now, obviously some players might take a step forward, or a step back, but as currently constructed the Cubs would need to add approximately 20 fWAR in free agent contracts just from position players to approach the level of fWAR the top teams in the playoffs had in 2022. They’d need to add at least ten fWAR to get into the top ten teams and put themselves in playoff contention.

But position players are only part of the equation, so as promised in that earlier article, today I’ll look at the value the Cubs got from their pitchers during 2022 with the same basic premise: Identifying how much more value the Cubs need to get from their starting rotation and bullpen to be competitive in 2023. Brace yourself, it’s not going to be pretty.

Team by Team Comparison

The Cubs got 8.7 fWAR from their pitchers in 2022, which was the 26th lowest fWAR for any pitching staff in baseball. By comparison, the World Series Champion Astros got 27 total fWAR from their pitchers last season. The NL-leading Dodgers got 24.6 fWAR from their pitching staff. To join the top of the league in terms of pitching value the Cubs would need to add between 15.9 and 18.3 fWAR in terms of pitching value this offseason.

Team pitching fWAR 2022

Team W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Team W L SV IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
HOU 106 56 53 1445.1 9.49 2.85 0.83 .268 77.2% 42.7% 9.3% 2.9 3.28 3.56 27.0
LAD 111 51 43 1451.1 9.08 2.52 0.94 .255 78.3% 42.5% 9.8% 2.8 3.45 3.67 24.6
ATL 101 61 55 1448.0 9.66 3.11 0.92 .286 74.6% 43.5% 10.5% 3.46 3.46 3.58 22.8
PHI 87 75 42 1428.1 8.97 2.92 0.95 .302 71.2% 44.2% 10.6% 3.98 3.6 3.70 22.7
NYM 101 61 41 1438.2 9.79 2.68 1.06 .297 76.0% 43.3% 11.9% 3.58 3.51 3.45 20.3
SFG 81 81 39 1433.0 8.60 2.77 0.83 .310 70.0% 47.7% 9.8% 3.86 3.43 3.62 20.0
NYY 99 63 47 1451.2 9.05 2.75 0.97 .268 76.3% 44.1% 10.7% 3.3 3.56 3.65 19.6
SDP 89 73 48 1443.1 9.05 2.92 1.08 .282 73.5% 41.2% 11.1% 3.81 3.82 3.86 19.4
CLE 92 70 51 1456.0 8.59 2.69 1.06 .274 73.8% 42.5% 11.2% 3.47 3.75 3.78 18.6
CHW 81 81 48 1447.2 9.01 3.31 1.03 .295 71.2% 41.5% 10.5% 3.94 3.81 3.93 17.3
TOR 92 70 46 1441.1 8.68 2.65 1.12 .295 73.4% 41.4% 11.4% 3.89 3.85 3.84 17.0
LAA 73 89 38 1435.2 8.67 3.39 1.05 .276 73.0% 42.2% 11.1% 3.79 3.96 4.00 17.0
TBR 86 76 44 1435.2 8.68 2.41 1.08 .277 74.6% 42.5% 11.2% 3.41 3.68 3.71 16.5
MIL 86 76 52 1446.0 9.52 3.24 1.18 .280 72.9% 43.8% 13.4% 3.83 3.92 3.66 14.9
MIA 69 93 41 1437.1 9.00 3.20 1.08 .295 73.8% 44.6% 12.6% 3.86 3.9 3.75 14.1
SEA 90 72 40 1447.0 8.65 2.78 1.16 .279 76.1% 39.8% 11.2% 3.59 3.9 3.93 13.8
STL 93 69 37 1435.2 7.38 3.07 0.92 .287 74.2% 47.2% 10.7% 3.79 3.94 4.03 13.4
COL 68 94 43 1425.1 7.50 3.40 1.16 .312 66.8% 44.1% 12.1% 5.08 4.38 4.29 12.6
BAL 83 79 46 1433.1 7.62 2.78 1.07 .296 73.2% 43.2% 10.9% 3.97 4.03 4.10 11.9
MIN 78 84 28 1437.0 8.37 2.93 1.15 .285 73.3% 40.0% 11.0% 3.98 4.03 4.10 10.7
CIN 62 100 31 1423.1 8.94 3.87 1.35 .298 71.1% 40.6% 13.3% 4.86 4.59 4.31 9.9
BOS 78 84 39 1431.0 8.47 3.31 1.16 .304 69.8% 42.8% 11.8% 4.53 4.17 4.11 9.8
PIT 62 100 33 1421.0 7.92 3.71 1.04 .304 68.7% 43.9% 10.9% 4.66 4.27 4.35 9.5
DET 66 96 38 1419.2 7.58 3.24 1.06 .284 71.3% 41.7% 10.2% 4.05 4.16 4.34 9.4
TEX 68 94 37 1435.0 8.24 3.64 1.06 .292 71.2% 45.9% 11.9% 4.22 4.18 4.11 8.9
CHC 74 88 44 1443.2 8.62 3.37 1.29 .287 73.5% 43.1% 13.5% 4.03 4.33 4.04 8.7
ARI 74 88 33 1430.0 7.65 3.17 1.20 .282 71.2% 39.8% 11.5% 4.25 4.33 4.32 7.7
KCR 65 97 33 1416.0 7.57 3.75 1.10 .312 70.3% 43.7% 11.2% 4.72 4.42 4.44 7.5
OAK 60 102 34 1426.1 7.59 3.17 1.23 .289 70.7% 41.4% 11.5% 4.54 4.41 4.39 3.6
WSN 55 107 28 1411.2 7.78 3.56 1.56 .297 70.8% 41.5% 14.4% 5 4.98 4.51 1.0
Select stats FanGraphs

Let’s set our sights a little lower than the Dodgers and the Astros for now, because as the Phillies demonstrated this year, you don’t need to dominate with your rotation all season, you just need to be good enough to get to the postseason and hope you get hot at the right time. If we look at the teams that led the NL Central, the fWAR gap is a still daunting but more manageable 6.2 fWAR to catch the division leading Brewers and 4.7 fWAR to catch the Cardinals. For reference, Carlos Rodón put up 6.2 fWAR in 178 innings with the Giants in 2022 as the second most valuable pitcher in MLB and Corbin Burnes put up 4.6 fWAR across 202 innings with the Brewers, making him the ninth most valuable pitcher in baseball.

Theoretically, Rodón is available, but there are lots of ways to add that fWAR. Let’s take a closer look at the Cubs current roster to see what it currently looks like in terms of players.

Cubs pitcher value 2022

The Cubs top pitcher in 2022 by fWAR was Justin Steele, who took a big step forward in 2022 with a career-high 119 innings pitched. He put up a 3.18 ERA over those innings striking out 9.53 batters per nine innings and a less impressive 3.78 walks per nine innings. For that performance he earned 2.6 fWAR. As I mentioned above, one way to think of the NL Central fWAR gap is that the Cubs basically need to add one ace starter who can put up approximately twice the value Steele did in 2022. Alternatively, they could Cubs this up and keep tinkering around the margins hoping they can cobble together that value from back of the rotation guys who might be better in a long relief role. Let’s take a look at every Cubs pitcher (minus position players) in 2022. I apologize in advance for the size of this table, the Cubs used a lot of pitchers last season:

Cubs pitcher fWAR 2022

Name W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Name W L SV G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Justin Steele 4 7 0 24 24 119.0 9.53 3.78 0.61 .317 72.6% 51.2% 8.7% 3.18 3.21 3.48 2.6
Marcus Stroman 6 7 0 25 25 138.2 7.72 2.34 1.04 .272 72.5% 51.7% 13.9% 3.5 3.76 3.49 2
Adrian Sampson 4 5 0 21 19 104.1 6.30 2.33 0.86 .288 77.6% 40.0% 7.7% 3.11 3.79 4.39 1.5
Drew Smyly 7 8 0 22 22 106.1 7.70 2.20 1.35 .275 78.5% 40.1% 11.7% 3.47 4.23 4.18 1.3
Scott Effross 1 4 1 47 1 44.0 10.23 2.25 0.41 .296 63.3% 45.6% 5.0% 2.66 2.18 2.94 1.2
Keegan Thompson 10 5 1 29 17 115.0 8.45 3.37 1.25 .282 76.2% 40.9% 12.3% 3.76 4.4 4.27 0.8
Hayden Wesneski 3 2 0 6 4 33.0 9.00 1.91 0.82 .244 83.9% 47.1% 8.3% 2.18 3.2 3.64 0.7
Wade Miley 2 2 0 9 8 37.0 6.81 3.41 0.73 .250 63.1% 52.6% 7.9% 3.16 3.95 4.42 0.5
Adbert Alzolay 2 1 0 6 0 13.1 12.83 1.35 0.68 .276 66.0% 40.0% 8.3% 3.38 1.91 2.27 0.5
David Robertson 3 0 14 36 0 40.1 11.38 4.24 0.89 .216 88.8% 48.4% 10.8% 2.23 3.51 3.58 0.5
Chris Martin 1 0 0 34 0 31.1 11.49 1.15 1.44 .393 74.3% 52.3% 20.8% 4.31 3.02 2.08 0.4
Javier Assad 2 2 0 9 8 37.2 7.17 4.78 0.96 .277 83.0% 38.8% 8.7% 3.11 4.49 4.92 0.4
Kyle Hendricks 4 6 0 16 16 84.1 7.04 2.56 1.60 .282 73.6% 36.2% 13.5% 4.8 4.82 4.46 0.4
Mark Leiter 2 7 3 35 4 67.2 9.71 3.33 1.33 .251 74.3% 48.9% 17.5% 3.99 4.3 3.62 0.3
Mychal Givens 6 2 2 40 0 40.2 11.29 4.20 1.11 .287 83.0% 41.4% 12.5% 2.66 3.83 3.68 0.2
Steven Brault 0 0 0 9 0 9.0 8.00 5.00 0.00 .320 71.4% 44.0% 0.0% 3 3.34 5.31 0.1
Rowan Wick 4 7 9 64 0 64.0 9.70 4.08 1.27 .376 74.7% 44.3% 15.5% 4.22 4.19 3.7 0
Michael Rucker 3 1 0 41 0 54.2 8.23 3.29 1.32 .278 76.5% 43.4% 12.7% 3.95 4.28 4.09 0
Luke Farrell 0 0 0 4 2 11.0 7.36 2.45 1.64 .294 82.0% 25.0% 12.5% 4.09 4.66 4.45 0
Eric Stout 0 0 0 2 0 3.2 14.73 2.45 2.45 .286 76.9% 25.0% 20.0% 4.91 4.2 2.68 0
Conner Menez 0 0 0 1 0 1.0 9.00 0.00 0.00 .333 100.0% 33.3% 0.0% 0 4.11 5.59 0
Caleb Kilian 0 2 0 3 3 11.1 7.15 9.53 0.00 .324 37.5% 50.0% 0.0% 10.32 4.97 6.8 0
Jeremiah Estrada 0 0 0 5 0 5.2 12.71 4.76 1.59 .385 92.1% 28.6% 16.7% 3.18 4.17 3.45 0
Robert Gsellman 0 2 1 8 0 15.1 5.28 1.76 1.17 .300 58.1% 41.2% 11.1% 4.7 4.22 4.26 0
Matt Dermody 0 0 0 1 0 1.0 9.00 18.00 0.00 .500 50.0% 25.0% 0.0% 18 7.11 7.11 0
Nicholas Padilla 0 0 0 1 0 1.2 5.40 10.80 0.00 .333 75.0% 33.3% 0.0% 5.4 5.51 7.29 0
Jesse Chavez 0 0 0 3 0 5.2 4.76 3.18 1.59 .333 65.8% 26.3% 20.0% 6.35 5.41 4.42 -0.1
Locke St. John 0 0 0 1 0 2.0 18.00 0.00 9.00 .333 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 13.5 12.11 2.07 -0.1
Manuel Rodriguez 2 0 4 14 0 13.2 5.27 5.93 0.66 .231 73.9% 52.5% 11.1% 3.29 4.87 4.89 -0.2
Erich Uelmen 2 1 1 25 0 27.0 7.00 4.00 1.00 .275 72.2% 47.6% 10.0% 4.67 5 5.2 -0.2
Brendon Little 0 1 0 1 0 0.2 0.00 13.50 13.50 .333 38.5% 50.0% 50.0% 40.5 31.61 16.56 -0.2
Kervin Castro 0 1 0 8 0 10.2 5.91 4.22 2.53 .258 59.3% 41.2% 23.1% 7.59 6.86 5.01 -0.2
Brandon Hughes 2 3 8 57 0 57.2 10.61 3.28 1.72 .233 87.7% 33.8% 17.5% 3.12 4.64 3.78 -0.3
Ethan Roberts 0 1 0 9 0 7.2 10.57 7.04 3.52 .368 78.1% 36.4% 42.9% 8.22 8.59 4.86 -0.3
Daniel Norris 0 4 0 27 1 30.0 12.90 6.30 2.10 .262 49.7% 42.6% 28.0% 6.9 5.58 3.78 -0.4
Anderson Espinoza 0 2 0 7 0 18.1 9.33 7.85 1.96 .238 81.0% 43.5% 25.0% 5.4 7.15 5.61 -0.5
Alec Mills 0 1 0 7 2 17.2 5.60 1.53 3.57 .350 57.9% 34.3% 22.6% 9.68 8.04 5.48 -0.6
Sean Newcomb 2 1 0 17 1 22.2 9.53 5.96 2.78 .306 54.5% 32.4% 24.1% 9.13 7 4.88 -0.6
Matt Swarmer 2 3 0 11 5 34.0 9.53 5.29 3.18 .247 74.6% 35.1% 27.3% 5.03 7.35 4.68 -0.8
8.9
Minus position players FanGraphs

Now, just as with the position player table, this is a bit misleading. There are guys putting up solid numbers there (looking at you Scott Effross) who were traded for other guys who put up solid numbers (hello, Hayden Wesneski). So below you can see the Cubs returning pitchers and their value. I’ve broken this into starters and relievers to make it a bit easier to compare where the needs truly are for next season, obviously some guys appear on both lists since they had dual roles in 2022.

Returning starting pitchers

The biggest losses for the Cubs from the rotation are Drew Smyly and Wade Miley. Smyly was worth 1.3 fWAR for the Cubs in 106⅓ innings pitched. That made him the fourth most valuable pitcher in the team behind Steele, Marcus Stroman and Adrian Sampson. Miley was worth 0.5 fWAR in 37 innings pitched, which made him the eighth most valuable pitcher on the team. Let’s look at the updated list:

Returning Starting Pitcher fWAR

Name G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Name G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Justin Steele 24 24 119.0 9.53 3.78 0.61 .317 72.6% 51.2% 8.7% 3.18 3.21 3.48 2.6
Marcus Stroman 25 25 138.2 7.72 2.34 1.04 .272 72.5% 51.7% 13.9% 3.50 3.76 3.49 2.0
Adrian Sampson 19 19 98.2 6.20 2.46 0.91 .292 78.8% 40.0% 8.0% 3.28 3.93 4.49 1.4
Hayden Wesneski 4 4 24.1 8.14 1.85 0.37 .254 81.3% 48.5% 3.8% 1.85 2.83 3.87 0.7
Javier Assad 8 8 36.2 6.87 4.91 0.98 .266 84.4% 38.1% 8.7% 2.95 4.64 5.08 0.4
Kyle Hendricks 16 16 84.1 7.04 2.56 1.60 .282 73.6% 36.2% 13.5% 4.80 4.82 4.46 0.4
Keegan Thompson 17 17 78.1 7.58 3.33 1.61 .304 71.4% 35.4% 13.6% 4.83 5.09 4.72 0.1
Caleb Kilian 3 3 11.1 7.15 9.53 0.00 .324 37.5% 50.0% 0.0% 10.32 4.97 6.80 0.0
Alec Mills 2 2 3.0 6.00 3.00 9.00 .400 83.3% 30.8% 42.9% 15.00 16.78 7.23 -0.3
Mark Leiter 4 4 14.1 6.91 4.40 3.14 .250 64.7% 40.0% 29.4% 8.16 8.00 5.22 -0.4
Matt Swarmer 5 5 24.2 8.76 3.65 4.01 .194 73.9% 30.1% 28.2% 5.84 8.18 4.72 -0.7
Select stats FanGraphs

Now, there are some reasons to be optimistic here. Wesneski was outstanding in limited work and after throwing 143⅓ innings between Triple-A and MLB for the Cubs and the Yankees last year, he should project to a full season’s workload nicely. Similarly, Stroman dealt with some injury issues last season and it wouldn’t be surprising if he put up a 3.0 or 3.5 fWAR (in line with his career norms) if he stays healthy in 2023.

But even with that cautious optimism it’s hard to escape the fact that the Cubs are returning 6.2 fWAR to their rotation in 2023. For comparisons sake, the starters for the division-leading Brewers and Cardinals put up 12.3 and 10.5 fWAR respectively last season.

Returning relief pitchers

While many of us are justifiably optimistic about the work the pitch lab has done, I think it’s important to be realistic about exactly where the improvements have been seen. Specifically, the Cubs have been very good at developing mid-level relievers and back of the rotation arms. They have been substantially less successful developing top tier starting or bullpen talent, which goes a long ways to explaining why the 0.9 fWAR the Cubs’ relievers tallied in 2022 was third from last in MLB. Fortunately, the Cardinals and Brewers weren’t that much better here, getting 2.9 and 2.5 fWAR from their pens respectively.

Let’s look at who is likely returning as a possible bullpen arm for the Cubs in 2023:

Returning Bullpen fWAR 2022

Name G IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Name G IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP WAR
Keegan Thompson 12 36.2 10.3 3.4 0.5 .215 90.4% 57.5% 7.4% 1.47 2.92 3.3 0.7
Mark Leiter 31 53.1 10.5 3.0 0.8 .252 77.4% 51.9% 12.5% 2.87 3.3 3.19 0.7
Adbert Alzolay 6 13.1 12.8 1.4 0.7 .276 66.0% 40.0% 8.3% 3.38 1.91 2.27 0.5
Adrian Sampson 2 5.2 7.9 0.0 0.0 .200 33.3% 40.0% 0.0% 0 1.35 2.65 0.1
Steven Brault 9 9.0 8.0 5.0 0.0 .320 71.4% 44.0% 0.0% 3 3.34 5.31 0.1
Rowan Wick 64 64.0 9.7 4.1 1.3 .376 74.7% 44.3% 15.5% 4.22 4.19 3.7 0.0
Michael Rucker 41 54.2 8.2 3.3 1.3 .278 76.5% 43.4% 12.7% 3.95 4.28 4.09 0.0
Javier Assad 1 1.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 .667 50.0% 66.7% 0.0% 9 -0.89 -0.89 0.0
Hayden Wesneski 2 8.2 11.4 2.1 2.1 .211 96.2% 42.9% 20.0% 3.12 4.27 2.98 0.0
Jeremiah Estrada 5 5.2 12.7 4.8 1.6 .385 92.1% 28.6% 16.7% 3.18 4.17 3.45 0.0
Matt Swarmer 6 9.1 11.6 9.6 1.0 .391 75.3% 50.0% 20.0% 2.89 5.15 4.55 -0.1
Manuel Rodriguez 14 13.2 5.3 5.9 0.7 .231 73.9% 52.5% 11.1% 3.29 4.87 4.89 -0.2
Alec Mills 5 14.2 5.5 1.2 2.5 .340 51.5% 35.2% 16.7% 8.59 6.25 5.13 -0.2
Erich Uelmen 25 27.0 7.0 4.0 1.0 .275 72.2% 47.6% 10.0% 4.67 5 5.2 -0.2
Brendon Little 1 0.2 0.0 13.5 13.5 .333 38.5% 50.0% 50.0% 40.5 31.61 16.56 -0.2
Kervin Castro 8 10.2 5.9 4.2 2.5 .258 59.3% 41.2% 23.1% 7.59 6.86 5.01 -0.2
Brandon Hughes 57 57.2 10.6 3.3 1.7 .233 87.7% 33.8% 17.5% 3.12 4.64 3.78 -0.3
Ethan Roberts 9 7.2 10.6 7.0 3.5 .368 78.1% 36.4% 42.9% 8.22 8.59 4.86 -0.3
Anderson Espinoza 7 18.1 9.3 7.9 2.0 .238 81.0% 43.5% 25.0% 5.4 7.15 5.61 -0.5
Select stats FanGraphs

When I sum the fWAR column on that table the Cubs got -0.1 fWAR from their returning bullpen pitchers for 2022. Yes, you read that correctly. Even with the standard stipulations that there are lots of negative fWAR players in the bullpen, and relievers generally being worth fewer wins above replacement because they have lighter work loads...that is not encouraging. Brandon Hughes threw 57⅔ innings, including a lot of high leverage work. He struck out 10.61 batters per nine innings. He was worth -0.3 fWAR.

Now, again, reliever fWAR is clearly a small sample size nightmare, but it is worth noting that the most valuable relievers for the Cubs last year were almost all one-year contracts who were traded at the deadline. Effross put up a bullpen leading 1.2 fWAR, David Robertson put up 0.5 fWAR before he was traded to the Phillies, Chris Martin put up 0.4 fWAR before he was traded to the Dodgers, Mychal Givens put up 0.2 fWAR before he was traded to the Mets. You get the idea.

The Cubs will likely need their homegrown talent to take a few giants leap forward and supplement the bullpen in free agency with some one-year deals who hopefully are not traded because the team is in contention this year, but a lot will need to go right for the Cubs to catch up the the NL Central, let alone the rest of the league.

I’m not trying to rain on everyone’s hot stove parade here, but it’s worth having your eyes wide open at the start of this offseason. While there are many reports that the Cubs will look to be active in free agency this offseason, it’s reasonable for fans to wonder if they will be able to add all of the pieces they need to for competitive baseball to return to the corner of Clark and Addison next season. By my tally they need to land one of the big four shortstops, a catcher (who will not be as good offensively as Willson Contreras), a 1B/DH type to back up Mervis, have Mervis be everything they think he is, and add a centerfielder. They also need at least one starting pitcher (preferably an ace type, not a contact type) and a slew of small bullpen deals similar to the ones they made in 2021 and 2022. With the payroll currently sitting at 13th in MLB at $167 million according to Spotrac, they have the financial flexibility to get all of this done. However, that is still a tall order for one offseason just to get back to the baseline value teams who were competing for playoff spots in 2022.

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