FanPost

Bidding farewell to the shift

A milestone in baseball history passed by completely unnoticed Saturday night, in Game 6 of the World Series at Houston: the last shift against a batter.

It came with 1 out in the top of the ninth inning.

...

From what I could discern while closely watching video of the inning on Sunday, the Astros had 2 infielders on each side of second base against the first 2 Phillies who batted, right-handed batters Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto.

Hoskins flied out to right-center on a 1-2 pitch, then Realmuto lined the next pitch to center for a single.

As lefty-swinging Bryce Harper steps to the plate, the video shows third baseman Alex Bregman slowly walking toward second base, with no teammate anywhere between him and the bag.

That means shortstop Jeremy Pena, second baseman Jose Altuve and first baseman Trey Mancini all were on the right side of second -- a tactic that will be banned starting in spring training of 2023.

On the first pitch Harper saw, he lofted a fly to left fielder Yordan Alvarez.

The video then shows Bregman moving back toward third and Pena returning to the left side of second.

Moments later, righty Nick Castellanos hit a fly toward the right-field line that was caught by right fielder Kyle Tucker in foul territory to end the games, the series -- and the shift.

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1 OUT OF 3

According to data at baseballsavant.com, during the 2022 regular season, all 30 teams employed the shift on one third of plate appearances: 33.6 percent, to be precise.

They did it 55 percent against left-handed batters, 39,419 of 71,620.

They did it 19.6 percent against rightys, 21,430 of 109,584.

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It was fitting that the Astros should be the last team to use the shift. They did it the second most frequently of any team, 50.4 percent, to the Dodgers' 52.1, and by far most often against leftys: 82.1 percent, to 70.7 by the Red Sox, 70.4 by the Dodgers and 70.4 by the Twins.

The Blue Jays, at 50.3, were the third and last team to shift at least half the time.

The Cubs ranked eighth, at 38.0 percent.

...

Here are the top 10 in total shifts by percentage:

52.1: Dodgers

50.4: Astros

50.3: Blue Jays

45.3: Mariners

43.9: Marlins and Twins

38.4: White Sox

38.0: Cubs

37.8: Mets

37.0: Tigers

The Rangers are next, at 35.9, followed by the Red Sox (35.3) and Angels (35.2). Then there is a gap before the No. 14 Nationals, at 32.9.

The Athletics, Giants and Pirates also shifted at least 30 percent of the time.

Only the Rockies (18.6) did so less than 20 percent. The Guardians (22.6), Orioles (23.6) and Padres (24.6) also were below 25 percent. The Yankees were next, at 25.8.

Each league had 5 of the top 10 in shift percentage, but the AL had 5 of the next 6, giving it 10 of the top 16.

The NL then had the next 7 and the AL had 5 of the final 7.

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AL WAS SHIFTIER

American League teams employed the shift significantly more often than National League teams, 35.3 percent to 31.9 percent

AL teams had 584 fewer plate appearances, 90,310 to 90,894, a difference of six-tenths of 1 percent.

But AL teams used a shift 2,825 more times, 31,837 to 29,012, an increase of 9.7 percent.

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RIGHTYS VS. LEFTYS

There was only a small difference between AL and NL teams in shifts against right-handed batters, with AL clubs doing it 19.9 percent and NL clubs, 19.3.

But there was a big difference against lefty swingers: 59.6 in the AL to 50.7 in the NL.

AL teams had 1,096 more PA against rightys and shifted against them 540 more times.

They had 1,680 fewer PA against leftys but shifted against them 2,285 more times!

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The Cubs ranked ninth overall and fifth among NL teams in shifts against rightys:

42.9: Blue Jays

41.9: Dodgers

36.1: Marlins

33.9: Mariners

31.5: Mets

25.7: Twins

25.3: Astros

22.8: Braves

22.2: Cubs

21.3 Rangers

The bottom 5 were the Padres (5.0), Guardians (5.9), Orioles and Reds (10.1) and Yankees (10.4).

...

The Cubs came in 11th overall but third among NL teams in shift against leftys:

82.1: Astros

70.7: Red Sox

70.4: Dodgers

70.2: Twins

66.5: Tigers

63.4: White Sox

63.3: Mariners

62.6: Angels and Rangers

60.9: Nationals

60.2: Cubs

60.0: Blue Jays

The bottom 5 included 4 NL teams: Rockies (27.8), Braves (38.6), Rays (42.2), Cardinals (44.2) and Phillies (45.3).

.........

CUBS AND OTHER TEAMS

Here are the percentages of total PA and shifts, PA and shifts vs. rightys, PA and shifts vs. leftys for the Cubs, then all other NL teams, all AL teams, and all teams other than the Cubs:

Cubs: 38.0, 22.2, 60.2

Other NL: 31.5, 19.1, 50.0

All AL: 35.3, 19.9, 59.6

All other: 33.4, 19.5, 54.8

...

Here are the total number of total PA and shifts, PA and shifts vs. rightys, and PA and shifts vs. leftys, for the Cubs, then the average number for all other NL teams, all AL teams, and all teams other than the Cubs:

Cubs: 6,088/2,313, 3,563/792, 2,525/1,521

Other NL: 6,085/1,907, 3,620/690, 2,438/1,218

All AL: 6,021/2,122, 3,689/732, 2,331/1,390

All other: 6,038/2,018, 3,656/712, 2,383/1,307

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EFFECT OF BAN

In 2022, the combined batting average of all 790 batters in MLB was .243.

That was down by 1 point from 2021, when there were 1,373 batters, because pitchers were hitting in the National League.

And .243 was the lowest since .242 way back in 1967, when there were only 10 teams and no divisions.

This year's on-base percentage, .312, was the lowest since .311 in 1972.

The slugging average, .395, and on-base plus slugging, .706, both were the lowest since 2014, when they were .386 and .700.

...

What effect will banning the shift have on hitting in 2023?

Bill James calculated that, during the 2021 season, 22 percent more hits were taken away by the shift than were given by players beating the shift.

The net effect was a 4-point drop in combined batting average for all players.

...

Jayson Stark, in The Athletic, wrote in February:

"According to Sports Info Solutions, pull-heavy shift candidates -- most of them left-handed -- batted just .219 last year on groundballs and short line drives when they faced a shift. Against no shift, that average jumped all the way to .247.

"And according to Baseball Prospectus, on groundballs hit by left-handed hitters, the shift crushes batting average on balls in play by 35 points -- versus only 3 points for right-handed hitters."

But Stark also quotes data from Sports Info Solutions that when Double A teams permitted shifts in the first half of 2019, then required 2 infielders on each side of second base, in the second half, the percentage of outs by leftys on groundballs up the middle decreased only slightly, to 64.6 percent from 66.1 percent.

All of which suggests that 2023 will be a fascinating season in terms of batting and defensive positioning.

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