FanPost

Cubs' bounce-back seasons

The Cubs' winning percentage last season, .438, was 129 points lower than their .567 of a year earlier.

That tied for their fourth-biggest drop since 1876, and 2 of the 3 larger drops came before the Modern Era: 346 points in 1877 and 139 in 1887.

Their percentage tumbled by 138 point in 1999, when their record was 67-95, compared to 90-73 in 1998.

It first plummeted by 129 points in 2002, when the Cubs also finished 67-95, after having gone 88-74 in 2001.

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MORE FALLS THAN RISES

During all their seasons in the National League, the Cubs have had a lower winning percentage than the year before in 80 seasons, an identical percentage in 3 and a higher percentage in 62.

Between 1877 and 1900, it was lower 16 times, the same once and higher 7 times.

Since 1901, it has been lower 64 times, the same twice and higher in 55.

...

The 2 biggest increases were 221 percentage points, in 1885, and 213, in 1880.

The third-biggest, best in the Modern Era, was 176, in 1967, when the Cubs improved to 87-74-1, from 59-103.

In 3 more seasons, their percentage rose by at least 150 points: 168, in 1918, and 158, in both 1906 and 1984.

It was 148 points higher in both 1945 and 2015.

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WHAT FOLLOWED DROPS?

I wondered how the Cubs fared in the season after each of their big drops.

Did they bounce back? Or were they even less successful?

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It turns out that the Cubs had a higher winning percentage in nearly half the seasons after those in which it fell, 39 of 80.

It also was higher in 2 of the 3 seasons after which it had been same.

It was higher again in almost one third of the seasons after those in which it was higher, 21 of 62. In 3 others, it was the same as in the season in which it was higher. In 38, it was lower.

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MODEST AVERAGE

In the 80 seasons following a drop in winning percentage, the average difference was a gain of 12 points.

If the Cubs match that in 2022, they will finish at .450, which is 73-89, an improvement of just 2 games over their 2021 record.

Their biggest improvement in any season after a drop the year before was 221 points, in 1884. To equal that, the Cubs would have to go 107-55!

In 1967, the Cubs followed an 81-point drop with a 176-point gain. They would need to finish 100-62 to duplicate that improvement.

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BIGGEST TURNAROUNDS

After a season in which their percentage fell, the Cubs improved by at least 100 points a year later 14 times, most recently in 2007, when they followed an 81-point drop with a 118-point rise.

Their percentage fell by 129 points, then rose by 129, in 2002 and 2003.

It slipped by 13, then climbed by 142 in 2000 and 2001.

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Here, ranked by increase, are all 14 times that the Cubs raised their winning percentage by at least 100 or more points after it had fallen the previous season:

221, in 1885, after drop of 49

176, in 1967, after drop of 81

158, in 1906, after drop of 6

158, in 1984, after drop of 13

142, in 1963, after drop of 53

142, in 2001, after drop of 13

133, in 1998, after drop of 49

129, in 2003, after drop of 129

119, in 1895, after drop of 7

118, in 2007, after drop of 81

117, in 1898, after drop of 104

115, in 1902, after drop of 84

101, in 1890, after drop of 63

101, in 1922, after drop of 69

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In those 14 seasons, the average gain was 138 points. To post such a gain this season, the Cubs would have to finish 93-69.

If they improve by 100 points, they would wind up 87-75.

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BIGGEST SECOND DROP

The Cubs' biggest drop immediately after another drop was by 139 points in 1897, when their 3-year percentages were .774, .772 and .583.

Their only other third-year drop of more than 100 points was by 126, in 1892, from .608 to .606 to .480.

Here are all 14 times that the Cubs' winning percentage fell by at least 60 points again after it had fallen the previous season:

139, in 1887, after a drop of 52

126, in 1882, after a drop of 2

87, in 1925, after a drop of 1

87, in 1947, after a drop of 100

84, in 1901, after a drop of 41

81, in 1966, after a drop of 24

81, in 2006, after a drop of 61

79, in 1911, after a drop of 2

71, in 1974, after a drop of 7

69, in 1921, after a drop of 49

68, in 1914, after a drop of 31

63, in 1889, after a drop of 13

61, in 1908, after a drop of 58

61, in 2012, after a drop of 25

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BIGGEST TOTAL BACK-TO-BACK DROPS

The Cubs' biggest drop from 2 seasons earlier after back-to-back seasons with lower winning percentages was 191 points, in 1885-87: .774 to .722 to .583.

It tumbled by 187 in 1945-47: .635 to .535 to .448.

The percentage fell by 165 points in 1892-94, by 162 in 1918-20, by 152 in 1887-89 and by 151 in 1998-2000.

It dropped by at least 100 points from the first to last of 13 other sets of 3 seasons in which it was lower in both the second and third.

Among the 13: 141 points in 2004-06 (.549 to .488 to .047) and 139 points in 2009-11 (..602 to .516 to .463).

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