FanPost

Home runs and winning percentage, 2010-21

A previous post described how often all teams in Major League Baseball won a game last season based on the number of home runs they hit in that game.

When they hit none, they won fewer than 3 of every 10 games, posting a winning percentage of .293.

When they hit exactly 1, they won slightly less than 5 of every 10: .489.

But when they hit 2 or more, they won more than 7 of every 10: .707.

...

I wondered if that had been true in previous seasons.

Had teams typically increased their likelihood of winning by almost 200 points when they hit 1 home run, then by more than 200 again when they 2?

Were they more than twice as likely to win when they hit 2 homers as when they hit none?

I gathered data for each season going back to 2010 and crunched the numbers.

..........

NO-HOMER GAMES

There were nearly 20,000 games in which a team did not hit a home run -- 19,975, to be exact.

Such teams had a winning percentage in those games of .329, or 36 points higher than in 2021 alone.

The 0-homer percentage over the 12 seasons ranged from a low of .273 in 2019 to a high of .351 in 2013.

..........

1-HOMER GAMES

In the 18,983 games in which a team homered exactly once, the teams' winning percentage was .501, or 12 points higher than in 2021 alone.

The lowest 1-homer percentage was just .454 in the shortened 2020 season. The lowest in a full season was .466, in 2019.

The high was .528, in 2014. It was at least .509 each season from 2010-15. It has been no higher than .492 in any of the last 6 seasons.

..........

MULTI-HOMER GAMES

Teams hit at least 2 homers in 16,290 games.

Their winning percentage was .709, 6 points higher than in 2021 alone.

Only twice was the 2-homer percentage below .700: in 2019 (.683) and 2017 (.699). It peaked at .735 in 2010. It also topped .720 in 2011 (.723) and 2015 (.721).

..........

BREAKDOWN OF GAMES

Over all 12 seasons, then, teams won less than one third of the games in which they did not homer (.329), half the games in which they homered once (.501) and more than 7 of every 10 games in which they homered at least twice (.709).

..........

BREAKDOWN BY LEAGUE

Intriguingly, National League teams had slightly higher winning percentages in each category than did American League teams:

0 homers: NL, .330; AL, .327

1 homer: NL, .510; AL, .492

2 or more homers: NL, .710; AL, .707

The highest percentage with no homers in either league in any season was .369, in the AL, in 2014. The NL's best was .367, in 2011.

NL teams posted a .547 percentage when they hit 1 homer in 2013. Their percentage was .536 in 2010, also surpassing the AL best of .526 in 2014.

2010 also was the year in which NL teams had a high of .741 when they hit 2 or more homers. The AL peaked at .731 in 2014.

...

As you might expect, since the NL did not use the designated hitter, except in the shortened 2020 season, there were significantly more games in the NL during the 12 seasons in which no home runs were hit -- 1,457 more, to be exact, 10,716 to the AL's 9,259.

There also were more NL games with 1 homer, 9,605 to 9,378.

The AL had 8,501 games with at least 2 homers; the NL, 7,789.

..........

CUBS' BREAKDOWN

How did the Cubs' percentages compare to the overall ones?

The Cubs had a .330 mark when they did not hit a homer, virtually identical to the MLB's .329 and exactly the same as the NL's .330.

In 1-homer games, they were .494, while all teams were .501 and the NL was .510.

In games with multiple homers, their percentage was .707, just below MLB's .709 and the NL's .710.

..........

CUBS' NO-HOMER GAMES

In 2016, the Cubs won more often than they lost when they did not homer: .509 (28-26). They topped .400 in 3 other seasons, including 2020 (.429, 9-12).

Last year, they were just .255 (12-35), their third-lowest success rate among the 12 seasons. They were .226 (14-48) in 2014 and .233 (14-46) in 2013.

..........

CUBS' 1-HOMER GAMES

Six times, the Cubs won at least half the games in which they homered once, and in each of those 6, their percentage was at least .560.

Their best showing was a gaudy .688 (33-15) in 2015. They reached .632 (36-21) in 2018.

A year ago, they were just .404 (23-34). In only 2 other years did they fare worse: .350 in 2012 (21-39) and .379 in 2011 (22-36).

..........

CUBS' MULTI-HOMER GAMES

The 2016 Cubs won more than 4 of every 5 games when they hit multiple homers. going .810, 47-11.

They had percentages between .700 on the nose and .780 in 6 more seasons, with the .780 achieved in 2010 (32-9).

Their low in multi-homer games was .609, in 2013 (28-18). Last year was second lowest: .621 (36-22).

FanPosts are written by readers of Bleed Cubbie Blue, and as such do not reflect the views of SB Nation or Vox Media, nor is the content endorsed by SB Nation, Vox Media or Al Yellon, managing editor of Bleed Cubbie Blue or reviewed prior to posting.