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TOOTBLAN: A 2022 Cubs story

Let’s take a closer look at the Cubs’ baserunning woes this season

Chicago Cubs v. Toronto Blue Jays
Alfonso Rivas is caught stealing second base in Toronto
Photo by Jon Blacker/MLB Photos via Getty Images

If you’ve been watching the 2022 Cubs there are a lot of things to be hopeful about. Nico Hoerner has really taken a step forward at shortstop and is currently one of the top five shortstops in the National League in FanGraphs WAR. Despite both currently being on the IL, Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson have emerged as viable back of the rotation options while pitching a career high in innings. Hayden Wesneski had a debut for the ages yesterday, allowing just two hits across five scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. Christopher Morel has exceeded expectations against big league hitting, while playing multiple defensive positions and just generally providing joy as he literally introduces himself to the league:

But one of the things that needs to change right now is the Cubs absolutely embarrassing tendency to make outs on the basepaths.

It was apparent in April that this team had an aggressive, and sometimes questionable, baserunning philosophy. There have been a handful of us resigned to making running jokes about TOOTBLANs over the course of the 2022 season because sometimes all you can do is lolsob emoji your way through the worst of it. For the uninitiated, TOOTBLAN stands for “Thrown Out On the Basepaths Like A Nincompoop.” It has a long and storied history with the Chicago Cubs as an unofficial stat necessitated by the existence of Ryan Theriot — if you watched the Cubs in 2008 you already know, if you didn’t you can read more about it here.

Even Theriot would be stunned by the TOOTBLAN propensity of the 2022 Cubs.

The best running list of this season’s TOOTBLANs is being compiled by Cubs Twitter user Uncle Jeff, who has tracked a stunning 90 TOOTBLANs as of his last update Friday, September 2 for the Chicago Cubs over the course of the 2022 season:

It’s tough to say if there have only been 90 TOOTBLANs this season, because it’s not an easy stat to cross-check. You know it when you see it and if one happens and Uncle Jeff doesn’t happen to be watching, a single TOOTBLAN or two could be easily missed. That’s because the TOOTBLAN is a compilation of a bunch of different statistical events, plus some things that aren’t really captured in any stat. Yes, it includes runners caught stealing and back picks, but it also includes moments where Franmil Reyes thought he could leg out a double despite being in the 20th percentile of MLB for sprint speed. It includes overrunning a bag and being thrown out like a nincompoop and Willie Harris waving everyone around third base for #reasons.

In order to truly capture the fullness of the Cubs TOOTBLANery one would need to go back to the start of the season and re-watch every game, documenting all of the inconceivably bad baserunning decisions this team has made over the course of 135 games. I wouldn’t wish that punishment on anyone, so we’ll just go with Jeff’s unofficial count of 90.

Ninety TOOTBLANs over the course of 135 games is .67 TOOBLANs per game. That means this team averages more than a TOOTBLAN every other game.

Unfortunately, we cannot compare the above TOOTBLAN/Game metric by teams because as far as I can tell no other team does it enough to inspire unofficial team TOOTBLAN tracking, but there are baserunning stats. So today, I wanted to take a look at some of those leaderboards. In case you were wondering, yes, this lack of baserunning prowess shows up in more traditional metrics too and it’s past time that we take a look at them. Below you’ll see the teams leading the way in terms of the raw number of stolen bases, plus some other stats to put those totals in perspective, per FanGraphs. Let’s just start with the steals. All numbers below are through games of Monday, September 5:

MLB team leaders in stolen bases 2022

Team G PA HR R RBI SB CS wSB UBR GDP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR SB/CS
Team G PA HR R RBI SB CS wSB UBR GDP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR SB/CS
MIA 1957 4885 116 471 446 109 24 7.9 -8.8 95 .227 .292 .359 .288 86 -2.2 4.54
TEX 1966 5023 162 598 569 105 31 4 8.8 66 .243 .305 .397 .308 101 19.6 3.39
KCR 1993 5066 118 540 519 90 25 3.3 -3.8 91 .245 .308 .382 .303 94 2.3 3.60
PHI 1925 5038 166 629 603 88 21 4.5 7.0 96 .254 .317 .421 .322 106 9.7 4.19
CHC 1993 5048 134 547 516 88 32 0.2 -1.0 114 .240 .311 .388 .308 97 -5.4 2.75
LAD 1922 5177 178 720 687 86 15 6.3 5.5 75 .261 .337 .450 .342 122 18.0 5.73
CLE 1916 5018 102 553 527 86 22 3.7 3.2 93 .249 .311 .378 .302 96 6.9 3.91
STL 1940 5159 170 662 636 83 22 2.8 2.3 91 .257 .329 .428 .331 116 5.8 3.77
BAL 1962 5045 146 566 537 83 26 1.8 8.3 79 .237 .304 .393 .306 99 12.8 3.19
NYY 1941 5135 210 660 628 79 27 0.2 -7.4 98 .238 .321 .422 .325 114 -5.7 2.93
MIL 1937 5078 186 605 590 78 24 1.3 1.5 100 .235 .316 .410 .318 103 2.5 3.25
TBR 1966 4956 119 566 537 78 32 -1.7 -5.1 78 .242 .310 .382 .305 104 -3.2 2.44
ATL 1867 5080 203 666 635 76 27 -0.1 5.3 83 .253 .318 .445 .332 110 6.4 2.81
ARI 1993 4996 145 595 557 72 24 0.3 17.2 76 .232 .309 .389 .307 94 21.0 3.00
SEA 1980 5105 157 565 541 69 22 0.2 -9.1 93 .230 .313 .385 .308 106 -9.6 3.14
HOU 1886 5050 174 608 592 67 17 2 -5.6 97 .246 .318 .419 .322 111 -6.1 3.94
LAA 1936 4988 155 515 494 67 25 -0.9 -0.6 76 .228 .294 .381 .296 90 2.4 2.68
OAK 1986 4880 113 457 430 67 21 0.9 3.9 96 .217 .281 .344 .277 85 -0.4 3.19
PIT 1924 4822 129 467 438 65 28 -2.3 3.4 76 .219 .286 .359 .285 80 3.3 2.32
WSN 1963 5025 115 515 493 60 26 -3.2 -10.9 123 .250 .315 .379 .306 94 -23.1 2.31
SFG 2092 5042 151 598 572 57 12 1.8 2.5 89 .234 .318 .392 .313 102 3.9 4.75
TOR 2008 5086 165 627 614 55 27 -4.6 -3.3 109 .260 .325 .427 .329 115 -10.1 2.04
CIN 1960 4899 130 565 541 53 26 -4.4 -1.1 109 .242 .310 .381 .305 88 -9.1 2.04
NYM 1940 5112 135 626 594 51 20 -2.8 -8.3 96 .256 .327 .406 .321 111 -8.7 2.55
BOS 1998 5192 128 620 592 47 17 -2.1 -2.9 102 .259 .320 .412 .319 103 -6.4 2.76
CHW 1964 5115 119 572 543 42 8 0.2 -3.5 108 .260 .316 .388 .310 101 -5.8 5.25
COL 1901 5137 118 594 566 39 17 -3.9 2.7 120 .258 .319 .396 .314 87 -5.8 2.29
SDP 1929 5198 123 597 578 38 20 -5.4 4.0 81 .241 .319 .379 .308 101 4.3 1.90
DET 1954 4863 80 440 420 38 21 -5.1 1.6 91 .228 .285 .335 .275 78 -4.4 1.81
MIN 1972 5008 155 585 563 29 16 -5.3 -4.4 102 .248 .319 .408 .319 110 -12.2 1.81
Plus select stats FanGraphs

The Cubs rank fourth in steals, which sounds great, but it’s all downhill from there. Successful baserunning is more than just a raw number of steals. It’s also how often you get caught stealing relative to attempts. Re-sorting that table by CS reveals a team that is tied with the Rays for the most times being caught stealing in baseball. However, raw numbers for either of these stats don’t really provide enough context either. What I really wanted to know was how the Cubs stack up in terms of successful steals vs. unsuccessful attempts. That would give us some handle on how efficient the Cubs are at stealing bases.

The easiest way to get to that data is the SB/CS ratio I created at the end, which quite literally takes the number of successful steals divided by the times a team is caught — The Cubs are the 19th worst team in baseball by this metric, well behind baserunning juggernauts like the Dodgers who have 86 SB to only 15 CS, as compared to the Cubs’ 88 SB to 32 CS.

Baserunning also shows up in terms of double plays, so I added a raw count of GDP to this table — you guessed it, the Cubs hit into a lot of them, the third most in baseball, as it turns out. Only the hapless Nationals and Rockies have hit into more GDPs than the Chicago Cubs.

If there is a silver lining to this TOOTBLAN cloud it is that not all Cubs are nincompoops on the basepaths, but for those who are, there needs to be an intervention. Below are all of the Cubs hitters with at least 50 plate appearances this season sorted by BsR, which is the base running component of FanGraphs WAR. It incorporates weighted stolen bases, weighted GDP and Ultimate Base Running for each player. If you want to read more about BsR here, you can, but if you’re not up for math, just think of this like WAR for baserunning. I would like to suggest that everyone in the negative here should be put on a “do not steal second or attempt to take an extra base without explicit instructions otherwise” status until further notice (again, stats are through games of Monday, September 5):

Cubs BsR leaders

Name G PA R SB CS BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR WAR
Name G PA R SB CS BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR WAR
Christopher Morel 89 350 49 9 6 .330 .246 .309 .442 .326 109 2.1 1.7
Nico Hoerner 119 455 44 16 2 .303 .281 .327 .396 .316 102 2.0 3.6
Jonathan Villar 46 166 19 6 0 .288 .222 .271 .327 .264 67 1.4 -0.8
Zach McKinstry 24 80 6 3 0 .245 .187 .238 .280 .231 45 1.3 -0.1
Alfonso Rivas 78 219 21 3 1 .350 .238 .320 .321 .288 83 1.1 -0.1
David Bote 23 60 9 1 0 .464 .255 .317 .364 .304 94 0.4 0.1
Nelson Velazquez 59 157 17 4 1 .258 .204 .280 .380 .292 86 0.3 0.0
Ian Happ 131 535 62 7 4 .345 .277 .350 .455 .349 125 0.1 3.2
Andrelton Simmons 35 85 8 4 0 .210 .173 .244 .187 .204 26 0.1 -0.4
Jason Heyward 48 151 15 1 0 .260 .204 .278 .277 .254 60 -0.1 -0.4
Patrick Wisdom 117 471 60 7 4 .288 .217 .311 .438 .326 109 -0.2 1.2
Nick Madrigal 55 215 19 2 1 .291 .254 .310 .284 .271 72 -0.3 0.3
Seiya Suzuki 94 379 43 8 4 .326 .260 .332 .417 .326 109 -0.4 1.2
P.J. Higgins 58 168 17 0 0 .273 .217 .283 .395 .297 90 -0.6 -0.2
Franmil Reyes 25 103 10 0 0 .338 .281 .320 .510 .354 128 -2.0 0.2
Yan Gomes 69 231 19 1 0 .236 .224 .251 .342 .259 64 -2.0 0.2
Willson Contreras 107 462 63 4 2 .273 .246 .351 .471 .359 132 -2.2 3.1
Frank Schwindel 75 292 23 0 0 .261 .229 .277 .358 .278 77 -2.4 -0.7
Rafael Ortega 112 353 32 11 7 .277 .233 .325 .346 .298 90 -3.9 0.4
Plus select stats FanGraphs

We all know what the 2022 season is — preparation for the future and tryouts for the next great Cubs team, plus a chance for the Cubs to see what they have in the farm system. None of us have any illusions about the competitive realities for this team. But there is very little to be gained by teaching a bunch of 22- to 25-year-old rookies that it’s okay to be reckless on the basepaths because you don’t have enough power bats. The Cubs should tack to a more thoughtful baserunning strategy immediately, not next season, not next series, today. The current state of Cubs outs on the basepaths is embarrassing.