So I know there was a thread on this, but JohnW's flood of posts buried it. So here are my updated thoughts on the 40-man this winter. Good news is that we've gotten a bit more clarity. Estrada and Wesneski were two guys who were going to need to get added for Rule 5 protection anyway, but by being added in September that question is answered. So without further ado, I'll list out my thoughts: guys on the 40-man who will definitely stay; guys not on the 40-man who will definitely be added; guys on the 40-man who are on the bubble; guys not on the 40-man who are on the bubble.
Goners (at least for now; they might come back in free agency but mostly not):
Contreras
Smyly
Miley
Newcomb
Ortega
Schwindel
Heyward
Mills
Hermosillo
Crook
Vizcaino
MLB locks (23; these guys are already on the roster and aren't coming off it):
Suzuki
Hendricks
Stroman
Steele
Thompson
Hoerner
Happ
Madrigal
Estrada
Wesneski
Alzolay
Hughes
Wisdom
Morel
Amaya
Gomes
Kilian
Canario
Velazquez
Uelman
Heuer
Assad
Marquez
MiLB locks (3; these are guys who would be Rule 5 eligible and the team is going to protect):
Davis
Alcantara
Brown
MLB bubble guys (these guys are questionable to stay on the roster):
Brault
Espinoza
Leiter
Roberts
Rodriguez
Rucker
Sampson
Wick
Wieck
Higgins
Bote
McKinstry
Rivas
Reyes
MiLB bubble guys (these guys would be at Rule 5 risk if left unprotected):
Correa
Devers
Franklin
Hill
Jensen
Little
McAvene
Pinango
Slaughter
Strumpf
Padilla (assuming he doesn't get claimed)
Perlaza
Sanders
Now a few notes:
1. They will probably keep 7-8 guys currently on the roster as placeholders for any future free agent signings or waiver claims. Those guys will get waived (or traded for minor league filler beforehand) once new guys are acquired.
2. They will probably not want too many guys below AAA on the 40-man, so most of the additional adds will be guys in AAA. Alcantara is an exception; you don't leave one of your top-5 prospects unprotected, even if he will only be in high-A to start next year.
3. They may be more willing to risk exposing guys who are likely to miss the season with Tommy John surgery rehab and hope they sign minor league deals later to continue their rehab with the idea that maybe they'll make it back to the big league club in 2024.
4. They will need guys who have options, because obviously you can't carry 40 MLB players.
With that, here's my current guess as to what will happen in November. Of course, there may be another add or two between now and the end of the season. But given what we know right now, here goes (the asterisks represent placeholders):
New 40-man pitchers in advance of Rule 5 (23):
Alzolay
Assad (AAA)
Brown (AAA)
Estrada
Hendricks
Heuer (60-day IL, will likely get replaced by Mervis or Leeper on the 40-man come opening day)
Hughes
Jensen (AAA)
Kilian (AAA/MLB)
Leiter*
Little (AAA/MLB)
Marquez (AAA)
Rodriguez (AAA/MLB)*
Rucker*
Sampson*
Steele
Stroman
Thompson
Uelman
Wesneski
Wick
One of Correa/Padilla/Espinoza (AAA)*
One of Devers/Franklin (A+/AA)
New 40-man position players in advance of Rule 5 (17):
Amaya (AAA)
Bote*
Gomes
Higgins (AAA, unless they don't add a FA catcher...)
Hoerner
Madrigal
McKinstry*
Morel
Wisdom
Alcantara (A+)
Canario (AAA)
Davis
Happ
One of Perlaza/Slaughter/Strumpf/Hill (AAA)
Suzuki
Velazquez (AAA)
Reyes
Note: this currently leaves off several guys who I think could be added: four of Hill/Perlaza/Slaughter/Strumpf, at least two of Correa/Padilla/Devers/Franklin, and others like Pinango, McAvene, and Sanders.